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9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Could this be true?

 

Two consecutive days of net Covid-19 hospital admissions down in England, London and Midlands. Fingers crossed this continues. /1

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If it is true then that supports the medical expert on yesterday's media briefing that he didn't think we were at capacity regarding ventilators. I remain sceptical when we are also told the peak numbers a yet to come. That statement and this graph don't fit easily together.

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2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I hope so!

It would be consistent with the claim that community transmission rate might now be less than one. 

Question now would the  be how many are now immune as that will probably inform when we start relaxing the lockdown.

Maybe slightly misleading, its showing the change in admissions not the actual admissions themselves but any downward trend is good news.

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5 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Thanks ricardo. That guy seems worthwhile keeping an eye on. Another thing I noticed on his page:

Breaking: 70% of blood donors in Castiglione d'Adda, the epicentre of the outbreak, tested positive (they had the antibodies) and none had developed any symptoms before! Lombardy is probably approaching herd immunity

That also chimes with that village called Vo in N Italy. Plus studies coming from Iceland (50% of of those tested were positive but had no/very few symptoms)

Edited by sonyc

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Thirteen residents at a Glasgow care home have died in one week following a suspected outbreak of coronavirus.

I imagine an outbreak in an institution like a care home must be passed on by the staff. I would imagine the residents are staying in their rooms.

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8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Maybe slightly misleading, its showing the change in admissions not the actual admissions themselves but any downward trend is good news.

Ah ok.  I had read that as more people are leaving hospital than arriving.

If I was right it would have meant that a) hospitals were getting emptied and b) recovery and discharge was outstripping new admissions 

 

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9 hours ago, Bill said:

or in reality.....ignored.

Evidence of this has been repeatedky posted on here and elsewhere/

Just as the shortage of nurses can be laid at the door of those who cut the grants and bursaries, so can the above shortage be laid at the door of those who I suspect sought yet again to cut costs.

Why ?

Maybe it can be seen starkly in that Eton and others are deemed a charity so as to avoid paying tax, whereas non EU nurses are charged £625 to use the NHS. A change that Johnson increased from £400 last November. The latter being such an absurd move that folk should have been up in arms about it. Yet not a peep. Not a peep, when at the time th NHS had a shortnage of 100,000 staff and was paying agencies through the nose to cover vacant shifts.

to paraphrase John Dunne

'seek not for where the blame lies, it lies with thee

those who not only stood by and did nothing - but actually supported such action, and those on here who even now try to claim that criticism is down to tribalism - and that whatever our views it is us who determine how this pans out, not the shortage caused by government policy...............sick

So you are saying that foreigners who enter the country having never contributed to the welfare state should receive free benefits. 

That is ridiculous and totally against the original ethos of the welfare state that everybody contributes their fair share.

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"Davide Piffer is a racist Italian parapsychologist crank who claims to have psychic powers, including precognition, ESP and psychokinesis.Do You Believe That?

Piffer also holds controversial views on race and intelligence, is associated with the alt-right HBD blogosphere and is the cofounder of the OpenPsych pseudojournals with Emil Kirkegaard.[1] In 2016 he co-wrote a paper that was presented at the London Conference on Intelligence.

Piffer has a BA in Anthropology and MSc in Evolutionary Anthropology.[2] He is currently a PhD student in Psychology at Ben Gurion University of the Negev. And he blogs at topseudoscience — an appropriate name since he's a pseudoscientist himself.

As of 2019, Piffer contributes to the pseudoscientific open access Psych journal.[3]"

 

At what point do people grasp that you should always check your source before posting information on social media in accordance with expert advice.You would have thought they would learn from advising people to clean their phones with dettol. Although it would explain and confirm the attitudes of some people on here and  hardly surprising that they are following right wing extremist racist cranks given the views they express on here. 

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2 hours ago, ron obvious said:

No, my question is why you believe Chris Whitty is lying. Why you believe China above our government (& the rest of Europe). 

Please provide evidence for bullying & threatening of front line staff. This is serious stuff & I'm sure the newspapers would be interested.

As far as confidence in daily briefings is concerned I personally regard them with scepticism. Ultimately they don't really say very much. I'm much more interested in the figures coming from sources like Worldometer & Mark Handley from UCL (though neither of those will be entirely accurate either).

From someone who wants a reasoned discussion that is a pretty bizzare response.

I specifically said I didn't know whether Chris Whitty had been lying but that he hadn't been open and honest - not quite the same thing. And that observation applies even more so to this government who are particularly adept at completely misrepresenting a situation without telling a direct lie, although they also do that as well when they feel the need arises.

Nor did I say I believe China over our government, I said I didn't believe any of them but since you bring up the subject, as above, we only suspect the Chinese of lying whereas we know that last weekend (I think?) Michael Gove looked straight into the camera and lied through his teeth to us, for example.

As for the bullying, it has been reported in the papers and on tv news but of course it is necessary to both read/watch them and then believe that the individuals are telling the truth (although I believe some emails have been published but then they may have been forged!).

But I suspect that you will not do so since you are apparently unwilling to contemplate the idea that we have an incompetent, or worse, government.

Edited by Creative Midfielder

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20 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Ah ok.  I had read that as more people are leaving hospital than arriving.

If I was right it would have meant that a) hospitals were getting emptied and b) recovery and discharge was outstripping new admissions 

 

Isn't that what he is saying ??

It is titled "Net Admissions" which would suggest to me that it is the difference between those leaving and those being admitted,  - otherwise, how could England be -300...... maybe I'm not seeing something here and he as just given it a cr*p title 🤔

 

Edited by Mark .Y.
Missed a bit

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1 minute ago, Mark .Y. said:

Isn't that what he is saying ??

It is titled "Net Admissions" which would suggest to me that it is the difference between those leaving and those being admitted - or he has just given it a cr*p title 🤔

I have not read the original source material.    I read the graph as admissions minus recovery minus deaths. So a negative figure means the wards are emptying.

 I have perhaps misread Ricardo's followup as hintimg at the idea that this graph shows changes in rates of admission.  

The author could have labelled the axis.

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Certainly it appears daily cases are levelling in terms of new numbers (going up but not increasing). Up 3,735 today.

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2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I have not read the original source material.    I read the graph as admissions minus recovery minus deaths. So a negative figure means the wards are emptying.

 I have perhaps misread Ricardo's followup as hintimg at the idea that this graph shows changes in rates of admission.  

The author could have labelled the axis.

Yes, agree it is not totally clear but I read it as you did.

Would perhaps explain why there seemed to be quite a bit of confidence about hospital capacity at the briefing yesterday evening

 

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For those that prefer to get their information from people who are not right wing racist cranks: Prof. Marylyn Addo, head of the Infectious Diseases section at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, on the development of a vaccine against the novel corona virus. "The first vaccine substances are already being tested, and the first efficacy signals are expected in autumn"

She goes on to say that a reasonable timetable is that a vaccine could then be available for vulnerable people at the beginning of next year although she said mass vaccination timing was harder to say and would take longer. She experts results of anti viral treatment studies to be available in eight weeks and general anti body testing to be available in the next few weeks.

Quite why people prefer to get their information from right wing  kranks rather than experts actually working on this stuff I don't know. But then it has been shown that the majority in the UK are willing to  believe any nonsense they want to believe from some charlatans. . 

 

Edited by T

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I swore to myself I wasn't going to get involved on here again...but...

2 hours ago, T said:

Perhaps if the UK Government is so great the UK nationalists can explain why Germany has 5x more ICUs, 3x more testing and no PPE problems. 

Who are these "UK nationalists" you talk of in such a condescending way? Tad vague. Your general remarks would appear to be taking a very nasty and sinister tone. I can't say I like it. 

As you're clearly a fan of all things German, shall I refer to you as a German nationalist then? I doubt you'd like that label, would you? Especially if we take it in the same negative context of your earlier remarks.

It would be a shame if people started to ignore your thoughts on this issue because you appeared to have a massive 'splitter' on your shoulder.

OTBC

Edited by Disco Dales Jockstrap
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8 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

From someone who wants a reasoned discussion that is a pretty bizzare response.

I specifically said I didn't know whether Chris Whitty had been lying but that he hadn't been open and honest - not quite the same thing. And that observation applies even more so to this government who are particularly adept at completely misrepresenting a situation without telling a direct lie, although they also do that as well when they feel the need arises.

Nor did I say I believe China over our government, I said I didn't believe any of them but since you bring up the subject, as above, we only suspect the Chinese of lying whereas we know that last weekend (I think?) Michael Gove looked straight into the camera and lied through his teeth to us, for example.

As for the bullying, it has been reported in the papers and on tv news but of course it is necessary to both read/watch them and then believe that the individuals are telling the truth (although I believe some emails have been published but then they may have been forged!).

But I suspect that you will not do so since you are apparently unwilling to contemplate the idea that we have an incompetent, or worse, government.

I believe this government is no worse or more incompetent than most others. It's extremely difficult to judge the competence of any government without a very long historical view, & competence & it's desirability to be in government can sometimes be at odds. Look at pre-war Germany for example.

If Whitty has not been honest then he's been lying, along with the rest of the government's medical & scientific advisors. I think what your saying is that their advice disagreed with the advice you think the government should have followed.

What was the outright lie told by Gove?

As I said cases of bullying & threatening need to be brought into the open. Or do you believe in trial by rumour?

This is quite an interesting article about the difficulty in assessing China's situation

https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/04/01/china-coronavirus-official-figures-underreporting-pandemic-response-xi-jinping/

The problem is we simply have no way of independently determining what is going on. It may all be going swimmingly or be out of control, we've no way of knowing, we have to take the information we're given on faith.

You seem to start from the viewpoint that this government is composed of evil, lying barstewards, & who always lie through purely venal motives, & ignore any evidence to the contrary. That is not a rational way to behave.

 

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2 hours ago, T said:

Perhaps if the UK Government is so great the UK nationalists can explain why Germany has 5x more ICUs, 3x more testing and no PPE problems. 

Is it because the Germans are the absolute mustard.....and the UK are actually wurst?.....

  • Haha 2

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39 minutes ago, T said:

"Davide Piffer is a racist Italian parapsychologist crank who claims to have psychic powers, including precognition, ESP and psychokinesis.Do You Believe That?

Piffer also holds controversial views on race and intelligence, is associated with the alt-right HBD blogosphere and is the cofounder of the OpenPsych pseudojournals with Emil Kirkegaard.[1] In 2016 he co-wrote a paper that was presented at the London Conference on Intelligence.

Piffer has a BA in Anthropology and MSc in Evolutionary Anthropology.[2] He is currently a PhD student in Psychology at Ben Gurion University of the Negev. And he blogs at topseudoscience — an appropriate name since he's a pseudoscientist himself.

As of 2019, Piffer contributes to the pseudoscientific open access Psych journal.[3]"

 

At what point do people grasp that you should always check your source before posting information on social media in accordance with expert advice.You would have thought they would learn from advising people to clean their phones with dettol. Although it would explain and confirm the attitudes of some people on here and  hardly surprising that they are following right wing extremist racist cranks given the views they express on here. 

Thanks for the info. I confess I didn't check, since Alistair Haimes seems legit & neither his nor Piffer's statements expressed any information likely to further causes such as you mention above.

 

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28 minutes ago, T said:

For those that prefer to get their information from people who are not right wing racist cranks: Prof. Marylyn Addo, head of the Infectious Diseases section at the University Medical Center Hamburg-Eppendorf, on the development of a vaccine against the novel corona virus. "The first vaccine substances are already being tested, and the first efficacy signals are expected in autumn"

She goes on to say that a reasonable timetable is that a vaccine could then be available for vulnerable people at the beginning of next year although she said mass vaccination timing was harder to say and would take longer. She experts results of anti viral treatment studies to be available in eight weeks and general anti body testing to be available in the next few weeks.

Quite why people prefer to get their information from right wing  kranks rather than experts actually working on this stuff I don't know. But then it has been shown that the majority in the UK are willing to  believe any nonsense they want to believe from some charlatans. . 

 

Yes, well done for exposing Piffer as a right wing racist nut. Good job. keep hammering it home.

Although in the context of the original quote it's difficult to see the right wing racist nutjob influence. Suspicions are obviously aroused however. It needs corroboration.

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27 minutes ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

I swore to myself I wasn't going to get involved on here again...but...

Who are these "UK nationalists" you talk of in such a condescending way? Tad vague. Your general remarks would appear to be taking a very nasty and sinister tone. I can't say I like it. 

As you're clearly a fan of all things German, shall I refer to you as a German nationalist then? I doubt you'd like that label, would you? Especially if we take it in the same negative context of your earlier remarks.

It would be a shame if people started to ignore your thoughts on this issue because you appeared to have a massive 'splitter' on your shoulder.

OTBC

I just don’t like racists and punters who happily risk other  peoples jobs and lives because they are so nationalistic and arrogant that they think they know better than experts. Others may think being racist, and risking other people’s jobs and lives is acceptable. 
 

As I clearly stated before it is not that I believe that some countries are generally better or worse. It is that some countries are better at some things and we should be willing to learn from them rather than this jingoistic nationalistic nonsense that has has pervaded British attitudes for the last few years. Some people seem more concerned that the comparison is Germany. The war finished over 70 years ago yet still impacts some peoples attitudes. If we can learn something from other countries we should rather than being xenophobic.

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1 hour ago, sonyc said:

If it is true then that supports the medical expert on yesterday's media briefing that he didn't think we were at capacity regarding ventilators. I remain sceptical when we are also told the peak numbers a yet to come. That statement and this graph don't fit easily together.

 

I'm always hesitant not to read too much into things like this for a few days.

We know elsewhere that places like Watford General are now 'closed' !

 

What I suspect it might sadly show is that hospital are nearing capacity and now refusing admission for Corvid -19 but for only the most serious of patients. Hmm.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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36 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Certainly it appears daily cases are levelling in terms of new numbers (going up but not increasing). Up 3,735 today.

Any graph, taken from 1 day, or 2 or 3, are indicators of nothing. The only graph that really matters is Deaths. Since March 21st, thats about 2 weeks, Italy has averaged around 750 deaths a day, with a peak around 900 and trough of 600, but most days 700ish..thats a fairly decent time period to see Italy deaths have stabilised...not decrease...just stabilised.

Spain deaths, since about March 24th, have shown a slight rise..from around the Italy type 700+ to about 800 now..so Spain has as yet not  stabilised in the way Italy has.

The UK has today joined Italy and Spain in  the 700-900 deaths a day, but our daily deaths are still steadily increasing..which means we dont know yet whether we will be in the Italy / Spain category or go higher...i.e. averaging 1k or more deaths a day..its quite possible considering Spains population is 20 million lower than the UK's. It only shows that as yet we are not at the peak.

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4 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Any graph, taken from 1 day, or 2 or 3, are indicators of nothing. The only graph that really matters is Deaths. Since March 21st, thats about 2 weeks, Italy has averaged around 750 deaths a day, with a peak around 900 and trough of 600, but most days 700ish..thats a fairly decent time period to see Italy deaths have stabilised...not decrease...just stabilised.

Spain deaths, since about March 24th, have shown a slight rise..from around the Italy type 700+ to about 800 now..so Spain has as yet not  stabilised in the way Italy has.

The UK has today joined Italy and Spain in  the 700-900 deaths a day, but our daily deaths are still steadily increasing..which means we dont know yet whether we will be in the Italy / Spain category or go higher...i.e. averaging 1k or more deaths a day..its quite possible considering Spains population is 20 million lower than the UK's. It only shows that as yet we are not at the peak.

Report I posted here this morning (Guardian) states that we cannot trust those death figures though. They are often wildly out of date lagging by weeks in some cases. The figures depend on efficiency in reporting. Also they are a lagging measure. I agree we cannot read too much. It still hasn't stopped me trying to interpret those graphs though.

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6 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Any graph, taken from 1 day, or 2 or 3, are indicators of nothing. The only graph that really matters is Deaths. Since March 21st, thats about 2 weeks, Italy has averaged around 750 deaths a day, with a peak around 900 and trough of 600, but most days 700ish..thats a fairly decent time period to see Italy deaths have stabilised...not decrease...just stabilised.

Spain deaths, since about March 24th, have shown a slight rise..from around the Italy type 700+ to about 800 now..so Spain has as yet not  stabilised in the way Italy has.

The UK has today joined Italy and Spain in  the 700-900 deaths a day, but our daily deaths are still steadily increasing..which means we dont know yet whether we will be in the Italy / Spain category or go higher...i.e. averaging 1k or more deaths a day..its quite possible considering Spains population is 20 million lower than the UK's. It only shows that as yet we are not at the peak.

Well the UK deaths have gone from 684 to 708 in a day, which is about a 3.5% increase. Pretty minimal compared to previous.

But it is far too early to say. Give it another week & we'll see if the overall trajectory is still dropping

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

Report I posted here this morning (Guardian) states that we cannot trust those death figures though. They are often wildly out of date lagging by weeks in some cases. The figures depend on efficiency in reporting. Also they are a lagging measure. I agree we cannot read too much. It still hasn't stopped me trying to interpret those graphs though.

We still seem to be the only country unable to update the number of people who have recovered. Surely It can't be that difficult.

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If you guys have noticed, Worldometer have now added a stat for nations testings as a total. I dont know what relevance it adds , other create plenty of opinions. For starters,  i looked at the  nations around the China area that had a few early cases and have been classed as dealing with the virus outbreak quite successfully. The UK has done 183,000+ testings now.

As already known, South Korea were predominantly doing much testing..it says theyve done 455k testings. But both Taiwan and Japan have done less than 40k testings each. Japan in particular...with a population of 130 million...have done 39,000 testings. I leave that up to others to opinionate if they want to.

Edited by Essjayess
spelling corrections

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3 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

If you guys have noticed, Worldometer have now added a stat for nations testings as a total. I dont know what relevance it adds , other create plenty of opinions. For starters,  i looked at the  nations around the China area that had a few early cases and have been classes as dealing with the virus outbreak quite successfully. The UK has done 183,000+ testings now.

As already known, Suth Korea were predominantly doing much testing..it says theyve done 455k testings. But both Taiwan and Japan have done less than 40k testings each. Japan in particular...with a population of 130 million...have done 39,000 testings. I leave that up to others to opinionate if they wnt to.

Great minds E. Did you see the Switzerland numbers per million? Very interesting looking at their numbers, rates and hints at a strategy?

Edited by sonyc

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1 minute ago, Essjayess said:

If you guys have noticed, Worldometer have now added a stat for nations testings as a total. I dont know what relevance it adds , other create plenty of opinions. For starters,  i looked at the  nations around the China area that had a few early cases and have been classes as dealing with the virus outbreak quite successfully. The UK has done 183,000+ testings now.

As already known, Suth Korea were predominantly doing much testing..it says theyve done 455k testings. But both Taiwan and Japan have done less than 40k testings each. Japan in particular...with a population of 130 million...have done 39,000 testings. I leave that up to others to opinionate if they wnt to.

Given the range in approaches taken by governments worldwide all we really have is opinion. As many of us have stated we won't have a decent picture of what's going on until it's all over.

Nothing wrong with opinions. Except when they get stated as fact.

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

Great minds E. Did you see the Switzerland numbers per million? Very interesting looking at their numbers, rates and hints at a strategy?

One element of these so called testings sonyc is accuracy...each nation will likely use a different testing make up...i know that here at home the slow rate of testing increase has in one stance been put down to the very tight restrictions that the NHS  have for the mix of chemical ingredients that make up the testing compound...and pressure of late has increased the demand for fast tracking testings in different methods. Point of this is..what determines accuracy..im just a humble football forum member, not a scientist.

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8 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

If you guys have noticed, Worldometer have now added a stat for nations testings as a total. I dont know what relevance it adds , other create plenty of opinions. For starters,  i looked at the  nations around the China area that had a few early cases and have been classed as dealing with the virus outbreak quite successfully. The UK has done 183,000+ testings now.

As already known, South Korea were predominantly doing much testing..it says theyve done 455k testings. But both Taiwan and Japan have done less than 40k testings each. Japan in particular...with a population of 130 million...have done 39,000 testings. I leave that up to others to opinionate if they want to.

Difficult to equate with different countries at different stages of the pandemic.

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Just now, Essjayess said:

One element of these so called testings sonyc is accuracy...each nation will likely use a different testing make up...i know that here at home the slow rate of testing increase has in one stance been put down to the very tight restrictions that the NHS  have for the mix of chemical ingredients that make up the testing compound...and pressure of late has increased the demand for fast tracking testings in different methods. Point of this is..what determines accuracy..im just a humble football forum member, not a scientist.

Also I understand PHE wanted to keep testing "in house" for far too long. In Germany they used the full gammut of public and private labs from the start. Thankfully we are now doing the same.

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