Corona Virus main thread

[Badger 2,405]

5 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Yet still the experts on here know the best approach to take, & that ours is the most incompetent, the most useless government in the developed world. Pathetic.

I'm not sure that many are saying that. I think the main points have been

1. That years of enforced (and unnecessary) austerity have left the NHS less able to deal with the crisis than it might other have been. (e.g. massive staff shortages)

2. Staff who have been denigrated for the sin of being non British, have been vilified by some (not you) yet are now heroes. The question is asked as to why their contribution was not recognised earlier.

3. The govt was slow to respond in critical areas. The lack of provision of PPE for NHS staff and key workers being a case in point.

It is a world crisis, and nobody knows what is going to happen. What is clear though that some of the people who have been almost criminally under-recognised for their contributions in the past are crucial to our efforts to maintain society. Some are understandably imo, irritated that their contribution is only being recognised now.

[ron obvious 1,495]

 

1 minute ago, Badger said:

I'm not sure that many are saying that. I think the main points have been

1. That years of enforced (and unnecessary) austerity have left the NHS less able to deal with the crisis than it might other have been. (e.g. massive staff shortages)

2. Staff who have been denigrated for the sin of being non British, have been vilified by some (not you) yet are now heroes. The question is asked as to why their contribution was not recognised earlier.

3. The govt was slow to respond in critical areas. The lack of provision of PPE for NHS staff and key workers being a case in point.

It is a world crisis, and nobody knows what is going to happen. What is clear though that some of the people who have been almost criminally under-recognised for their contributions in the past are crucial to our efforts to maintain society. Some are understandably imo, irritated that their contribution is only being recognised now.

1. I reject the term austerity. It's a corruption of the English language. What it really means is not borrowing ever increasing amounts to fund an ever larger bureaucracy.

2. Who has been denigrating NHS staff? Evidence please - I've not seen any.

3. It's difficult to know how slow they actually are. It's a huge logistical problem to go from everyday need to what was required in a couple of weeks. And the equipment has to be effective, not always the case from some providers. How do we compare to other countries?

And I'm going to be completely heretical here. I don't think the NHS is staffed exclusively by angels & heroes. My experience has been mixed. I've known of some absolutely brilliant, caring treatment, other times ... not so much. I suspect that doctors, nurses, careworkers,  are fundamentally just like the rest of us. Human beings, with all that entails.

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

10 hours ago, ron obvious said:

Really? Chris Whitty et al were lying then?

They were mouthing the modellers advice not the expert medical advice they had access to, and they certainly remained silent about problems which they knew about and should have already been addressed, e.g. lack of PPE kit.

Whether they told lies I don't know and don't really care, they weren't open and honest and they provided 'cover' for a strategy which they must have, or should have, known was at odds with what medical and public health experts worldwide were saying.

It is also clear that there have been many attempts to bully front line staff from speaking out about issues that Chris Whitty et al (epecially the political element of 'al') have tried to ignore or smooth over, to the extent that some staff have been threatened with disciplinary action and/or dismissal for speaking about the real conditions on the front line.

So if your question is really along the lines of 'Do I have any trust or confidence in the daily briefings?' then my answer is 'No, not one iota'.

[Barbe bleu 809]

Where are we with PPE now? 

It seems that the criticisms have abated, but us this because the supply issues have been resolved or because the media attention has changed?

Do care homes have enough?

[Yellow Fever 3,734]

54 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

I quite agree that none are entirely accurate, & can vary significantly in their accuracy. But the motivation for the inaccuracy matters, & I believe the amount of outright lying going on is much greater in China than in Europe.

The truth is nobody knows much. It looks fairly certain that S. Korea has had the best outcome, but all the other approaches, from Sweden to Germany to France to Spain, Belgium, Denmark ... they all seem to be producing the same trends in infection & death rates. Yet still the experts on here know the best approach to take, & that ours is the most incompetent, the most useless government in the developed world. Pathetic.

 

Without a shadow of a doubt China, in the early days like most authoritarian regimes was in denial or slow / reluctant to release the full extent of the issue (I would guess low level officials needed 'clearance' from their political masters so to do).

Oddly you could argue Trump had exactly the same type of response - belittling the issue, numbers and so on.

Now today neither would seem have much to gain from that approach and actually much to benefit in being full and transparent.

As an side virus mutations tend to self select for those that spread more easily - our own 'social isolation' perversely encourages just that! Eventually we may discover that the early forms of the virus as in Asia (China , Korea, Japan etc) were less infectious and possibly easier to control than later variants. That's why I tend to avoid over simple comparisons often done for political (and unhelpful) point scoring.

Time will tell when the dust settles and we can all look with detail at the unembellished facts. 

Edited April 4, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[ron obvious 1,495]

1 minute ago, Creative Midfielder said:

They were mouthing the modellers advice not the expert medical advice they had access to, and they certainly remained silent about problems which they knew about and should have already been addressed, e.g. lack of PPE kit.

Whether they told lies I don't know and don't really care, they weren't open and honest and they provided 'cover' for a strategy which they must have, or should have, known was at odds with what medical and public health experts worldwide were saying.

It is also clear that there have been many attempts to bully front line staff from speaking out about issues that Chris Whitty et al (epecially the political element of 'al') have tried to ignore or smooth over, to the extent that some staff have been threatened with disciplinary action and/or dismissal for speaking about the real conditions on the front line.

So if your question is really along the lines of 'Do I have any trust or confidence in the daily briefings?' then my answer is 'No, not one iota'.

No, my question is why you believe Chris Whitty is lying. Why you believe China above our government (& the rest of Europe). 

Please provide evidence for bullying & threatening of front line staff. This is serious stuff & I'm sure the newspapers would be interested.

As far as confidence in daily briefings is concerned I personally regard them with scepticism. Ultimately they don't really say very much. I'm much more interested in the figures coming from sources like Worldometer & Mark Handley from UCL (though neither of those will be entirely accurate either).

[Badger 2,405]

12 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

 

1. I reject the term austerity. It's a corruption of the English language. What it really means is not borrowing ever increasing amounts to fund an ever larger bureaucracy.

I was using "austerity" in its widely used form in economic debate. I agree with you that it is often misapplied. In the UK it was mainly a political project used for a electoral advantage and an ideological drive to reduce the role of the state. It's consequence was more borrowing rather than less, as was predicted by most economists at the time. 

2. Who has been denigrating NHS staff? Evidence please - I've not seen any.

I referred to "Staff who have been denigrated for the sin of being non British." I am not suggesting that you fall into that category, but the evidence is everywhere and very easy to find.

3. It's difficult to know how slow they actually are. It's a huge logistical problem to go from everyday need to what was required in a couple of weeks. And the equipment has to be effective, not always the case from some providers. How do we compare to other countries?

I understand that to sources of some specialist equipment is difficult (ventilators) - but we are talking about NHS staff and care workers etc without simple and basic equipment, like masks and gloves. Again the complaints from NHS staff are everywhere.

And I'm going to be completely heretical here. I don't think the NHS is staffed exclusively by angels & heroes. My experience has been mixed. I've known of some absolutely brilliant, caring treatment, other times ... not so much. I suspect that doctors, nurses, careworkers,  are fundamentally just like the rest of us. Human beings, with all that entails.

Whilst I agree that not all NHS staff, care workers are necessarily angels, I feel many are different from the population as a whole. Many for example have chosen careers not just to maximise their income but also to provide a service. You might think that I am naive, but I believe that many work from a sense of vocation and it is certainly my experience from the doctors, nurses, teachers and social workers that I have known.

 

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

For every counter argument you make Ron, there are replies that can be made. But despite the calls for non political, your arguments are based on your politics. And my dislike and distrust of Johnson no doubt will taint any points I could make.

But the fact remains, anyone working in a hospital at the moment is potentially putting their health and life on the line. That while others are at home on 80% wage and spending it in Tescos. Life ain't good or fair at the moment.

[Barbe bleu 809]

2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

For every counter argument you make Ron, there are replies that can be made. But despite the calls for non political, your arguments are based on your politics. And my dislike and distrust of Johnson no doubt will taint any points I could make.

Dont let bill hear you say that your prior politics influences your current opinion!

Anyway, do we have enough  PPE in the right place now ?

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

Just now, Barbe bleu said:

Dont let bill hear you say that your prior politics influences your current opinion!

Anyway, do we have enough  PPE in the right place now ?

😀

As to the PPE I think it is pretty clear that although the situation has slowly improved we are still a long way off where we should be. You mentioned care homes, many of whom are definitely still struggling to get anything and even in the NHS there are many reports of problems where even though staff have the correct face masks, rather than the one time use (i.e. each patient is treated) which is what they're intended for and the guidelines state, they are having to wear them to treat multiple patients, or for a whole shift. There was even a report from a London hospital, I think, where they had worn them all week!

[ron obvious 1,495]

26 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

For every counter argument you make Ron, there are replies that can be made. But despite the calls for non political, your arguments are based on your politics. And my dislike and distrust of Johnson no doubt will taint any points I could make.

But the fact remains, anyone working in a hospital at the moment is potentially putting their health and life on the line. That while others are at home on 80% wage and spending it in Tescos. Life ain't good or fair at the moment.

What are my politics then?

[sonyc 5,484]

I reckon you're quite an independent thinker Ron. And please accept my apologies if I am incorrect.

I tend to get my news stories and reporting from the Independent and the Guardian. I am interested though in most viewpoints. So-called Left or Right. I especially like to read from more philosophical/scientic/ anthropological sources and I tend to gather far more ideas and data from these...like  e-newsletters I'm signed up to (Aeon.co to give just one example. Worth a recommendation anyway)

[ron obvious 1,495]

31 minutes ago, Badger said:

 

1. I was using "austerity" in its widely used form in economic debate. I agree with you that it is often misapplied. In the UK it was mainly a political project used for a electoral advantage and an ideological drive to reduce the role of the state. It's consequence was more borrowing rather than less, as was predicted by most economists at the time. 

2. I referred to "Staff who have been denigrated for the sin of being non British." I am not suggesting that you fall into that category, but the evidence is everywhere and very easy to find.

 

3. I understand that to sources of some specialist equipment is difficult (ventilators) - but we are talking about NHS staff and care workers etc without simple and basic equipment, like masks and gloves. Again the complaints from NHS staff are everywhere.

 

Whilst I agree that not all NHS staff, care workers are necessarily angels, I feel many are different from the population as a whole. Many for example have chosen careers not just to maximise their income but also to provide a service. You might think that I am naive, but I believe that many work from a sense of vocation and it is certainly my experience from the doctors, nurses, teachers and social workers that I have known.

1. More borrowing rather than less? How robust is the model that leads to that conclusion?

I'll tell you now. Not at all. Economic theories have proven to be absolutely useless in predicting outcomes. I can only rely on my own experience, which tells me that it's very easy to borrow money on the basis that it'll be a good investment in the long term only to find that things rapidly change. And my experience of Labour governments is that the projects they spend on have little long term value.

2. So where is it? Please provide evidence.

3. The increase in demand for simple things was orders of magnitude. That makes it no longer simple. How have other countries performed?

Again I can only speak of my experience at the receiving end - except teaching, where the sense of vocation was notable by its absence.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

What are my politics then?

It doesn't matter what they are does it?

[Barbe bleu 809]

36 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

😀

As to the PPE I think it is pretty clear that although the situation has slowly improved we are still a long way off where we should be. You mentioned care homes, many of whom are definitely still struggling to get anything and even in the NHS there are many reports of problems 

I've not read too much about PPE that is recent,  I'll look out for it as your description is of a problem that is only half solved (although I am realistic in my expectations of a complete solution in unprecedented circumstances).

What about the other big issue, ventilators.   I understand that the original capacity is still proving adequate, for how long I do not know.   Where are we on the call to arms delivering the kit?

[T 190]

Perhaps if the UK Government is so great the UK nationalists can explain why Germany has 5x more ICUs, 3x more testing and no PPE problems. 

[sonyc 5,484]

Coronavirus UK death toll: why what we think we know is wrong

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/04/why-what-we-think-we-know-about-the-uks-coronavirus-death-toll-is-wrong?

 

Interesting piece on the reporting of numbers here

[ron obvious 1,495]

10 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I reckon you're quite an independent thinker Ron. And please accept my apologies if I am incorrect.

I tend to get my news stories and reporting from the Independent and the Guardian. I am interested though in most viewpoints. So-called Left or Right. I especially like to read from more philosophical/scientic/ anthropological sources and I tend to gather far more ideas and data from these...like  e-newsletters I'm signed up to (Aeon.co to give just one example. Worth a recommendation anyway)

I try to be as independent as possible sonyc. Until my 20s I mostly used to read the Observer, Times & Guardian. Growing up Orwell was my main political influence.

In the end I got disenchanted with the one-eyed viewpoint of The Observer & Guardian so stopped buying them. I still like some of their pieces; John Harris is probably my favourite journo on the staff.

From a very young age i realised the world is an impossibly complex place. It led to an inability to make any sort of decision; getting married forced me to make all sort of choices, which was a good thing. I think I might have ended up like Shelley (the tv one) otherwise! Even now, believe it or not, every time I state an opinion on here a dozen different arguments flood into my mind. I try to counter them pre-emptively, but inevitably there are things I haven't considered - & people pull me up on them, which is good, because it stimulates me to think more clearly & consider other possibilities. I've often had my point of view modified, if not totally changed, by discussion. REASONED discussion!

What really gets my goat is the certainty of opinions expressed as fact here (as everywhere else). Very few situations in everyday life are clear cut. It applies to football as much as any other subject: "we'll smash them easily" "we haven't got a chance" "So-&-so is rubbish, a useless player". 

And sometimes you have to agree to just disagree & let it go.

 

[ron obvious 1,495]

16 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

What are my politics then?

It doesn't matter what they are does it?

Does it? I dunno. I'm confused now.

 

[Disco Dales Jockstrap 1,891]

17 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

REASONED discussion!

Sorry Ron mate; I honestly can't see it catching on.

OTBC

[sonyc 5,484]

15 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

I try to be as independent as possible sonyc. Until my 20s I mostly used to read the Observer, Times & Guardian. Growing up Orwell was my main political influence.

In the end I got disenchanted with the one-eyed viewpoint of The Observer & Guardian so stopped buying them. I still like some of their pieces; John Harris is probably my favourite journo on the staff.

From a very young age i realised the world is an impossibly complex place. It led to an inability to make any sort of decision; getting married forced me to make all sort of choices, which was a good thing. I think I might have ended up like Shelley (the tv one) otherwise! Even now, believe it or not, every time I state an opinion on here a dozen different arguments flood into my mind. I try to counter them pre-emptively, but inevitably there are things I haven't considered - & people pull me up on them, which is good, because it stimulates me to think more clearly & consider other possibilities. I've often had my point of view modified, if not totally changed, by discussion. REASONED discussion!

What really gets my goat is the certainty of opinions expressed as fact here (as everywhere else). Very few situations in everyday life are clear cut. It applies to football as much as any other subject: "we'll smash them easily" "we haven't got a chance" "So-&-so is rubbish, a useless player". 

And sometimes you have to agree to just disagree & let it go.

 

Well that makes sense. "the world is an impossibly complex place" haha... too right.

And there are echoes for me....I quite like to be influenced as well. Not quite like the character played by The  Fast Show's Paul Whitehouse who changes his opinion every conversation in a pub!

John Crace is one of my favourites (because it's broad satire and not wholly serious and Marina Hyde because she is like vinegar, cutting through stuff). John Harris is a very decent read too. Journalism is also an art for me and I treat it as such too. I tend not to get too annoyed (life is too short).

In one of my life vocations I 'had' / 'needed' to remain completely open-minded / neutral (counsellor/ therapist for over 25 years ...alongside my main career) which was/is never a problem. Every new conversation is a blank piece of paper. Yet, in talking or writing about stuff with another, we always get a bigger picture. Like the music thread, so many influences, such diverse interests. 

Jung used to talk about the uncertainty principle and how important it is. It was great to read something like that when younger. I believe the more fixed we are, the unhappier we are and getting older means we must try to become humbler. That is a big challenge.

 

[Barbe bleu 809]

31 minutes ago, T said:

Perhaps if the UK Government is so great the UK nationalists can explain why Germany has 5x more ICUs, 3x more testing and no PPE problems. 

Testing certainly and hopefully this is going to prove beneficial to them in the long run.  Ventilators,  yes there high base makes them more resilient.  Whether we run out of ventilators remains to be seen.

Is Germany doing much better on PPE? The the following appears in a report on DW.com on 30 march.

"The shortages have already become apparent at many clinics and hospitals in Germany, whose health system usually ranks as among the world's best. Many procurement directors have reported having no choice but to attempt to sterilize and re-use masks as they search desperately for suppliers."

[ron obvious 1,495]

4 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Well that makes sense. "the world is an impossibly complex place" haha... too right.

And there are echoes for me....I quite like to be influenced as well. Not quite like the character played by The  Fast Show's Paul Whitehouse who changes his opinion every conversation in a pub!

John Crace is one of my favourites (because it's broad satire and not wholly serious and Marina Hyde because she is like vinegar, cutting through stuff). John Harris is a very decent read too. Journalism is also an art for me and I treat it as such too. I tend not to get too annoyed (life is too short).

In one of my life vocations I 'had' / 'needed' to remain completely open-minded / neutral (counsellor/ therapist for over 25 years ...alongside my main career) which was/is never a problem. Every new conversation is a blank piece of paper. Yet, in talking or writing about stuff with another, we always get a bigger picture. Like the music thread, so many influences, such diverse interests. 

Jung used to talk about the uncertainty principle and how important it is. It was great to read something like that when younger. I believe the more fixed we are, the unhappier we are and getting older means we must try to become humbler. That is a big challenge.

 

As a teenager I picked up a book by Jung at the library. I think it was 'The Archetypes & the Collective Unconscious'  

It was a very long book. I understood about one word in 3 & new nothing of Schiller or Goethe (still don't!). I struggled through it because I could sense a huge intelligence behind the bits I did understand. And some bits were almost poetic: "the polymorphous perverse sexuality of the infant ..."

About the same time I tried a book about transfinite numbers by Cantor. Once I got to the bit about there being different types of infinity I gave up  

[ron obvious 1,495]

7 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Testing certainly and hopefully this is going to prove beneficial to them in the long run.  Ventilators,  yes there high base makes them more resilient.  Whether we run out of ventilators remains to be seen.

Is Germany doing much better on PPE? The the following appears in a report on DW.com on 30 march.

"The shortages have already become apparent at many clinics and hospitals in Germany, whose health system usually ranks as among the world's best. Many procurement directors have reported having no choice but to attempt to sterilize and re-use masks as they search desperately for suppliers."

No. Surely not. It's a well known fact only our government could be that bad.

Or maybe ...

[sonyc 5,484]

Yeah, his books are a challenge. I learnt about a lovely concept and word 'enantiodromia' from him (essentially about opposite forces and change). Also the word 'syzygy' which must be the most amazing word ever!

These things aside, he was the person who inspired a career though!

[ricardo 7,336]

Could this be true?

Alistair Haimes @AlistairHaimes

 

 

Two consecutive days of net Covid-19 hospital admissions down in England, London and Midlands. Fingers crossed this continues. /1

10:05 AM - Apr 4, 2020

[Barbe bleu 809]

5 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

No. Surely not. It's a well known fact only our government could be that bad.

Or maybe ...

I'm open minded about our relative success in dealing with this. Perhaps the government has been uniquely  incompetent.

But just saying that our government is useless because Germany has more PPE only begins to be an argument if there is evidence that Germany has mastered its PPE requirements and I am not sure that this has yet been proven.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

48 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I've not read too much about PPE that is recent,  I'll look out for it as your description is of a problem that is only half solved (although I am realistic in my expectations of a complete solution in unprecedented circumstances).

What about the other big issue, ventilators.   I understand that the original capacity is still proving adequate, for how long I do not know.   Where are we on the call to arms delivering the kit?

As you said I think ventilators have become a much more topical issue - at least with the public/media whose attention span is always very limited even in situations like these.

Ventilators I'm not sure but suspect may be another testing kit saga, there are definitely more on the way but whether/how many will be available by mid-April which many people seem to be pencilling in for the peak (rightly or wrongly) seems very uncertain.

I think you are correct that currently we just about have sufficient ventilator capacity but one thing that doesn't seem to have received any publicity but which really alarmed me when I heard it directly from my daughter who works on a respiratory ward (now dedicated to Covid) is that although they have ventilators they don't have the ancillary equipment such as hoods which are required to safely ventilate highly infectious patients. So they are able to treat their patients but only at an even greater risk to themselves!

She loves her job, even though she gets very angry and frustrated by the incompetence above her but I wouldn't do it for all the tea in China and most definitely not for what she gets paid.

[Barbe bleu 809]

6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Could this be true?

Alistair Haimes @AlistairHaimes

 

 

Two consecutive days of net Covid-19 hospital admissions down in England, London and Midlands. Fingers crossed this continues. /1

 

I hope so!

It would be consistent with the claim that community transmission rate might now be less than one. 

Question now would the  be how many are now immune as that will probably inform when we start relaxing the lockdown.

[ron obvious 1,495]

Thanks ricardo. That guy seems worthwhile keeping an eye on. Another thing I noticed on his page:

Davide Piffer

 

@DavidePiffer

·

17h

 

Breaking: 70% of blood donors in Castiglione d'Adda, the epicentre of the outbreak, tested positive (they had the antibodies) and none had developed any symptoms before! Lombardy is probably approaching herd immunity