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1 hour ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Those 2 weeks of the herd immunity approach with hindsight now look like a massive error. There will be big debate after all this whether it was medically or politically driven.

Stay safe everyone.

1120 deaths in France today. A rich European country with a good health care system under a more stringent lockdown than the UK.

Anyone still believe the figures that came out of China?

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35 minutes ago, Badger said:

Agree. It cannot be justified that key workers and NHS staff do not have the protective equipment they need.

As to the rest, which approach is best, it's too early to say. We don't have the full data yet - nor do we know whether the outbreak will revisit once it appears to have gone.

NHS faces shortfall of ventilators as manufacturers struggle

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/03/nhs-faces-shortfall-of-ventilators-as-manufacturers-struggle-coronavirus?

The medical expert today on the daily ministerial address stated in response to a question about ventilator capacity that there was no concern at all where they are at. Yet, this story this evening seems to cast serious doubts. Who do we believe?

Edited by sonyc

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7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

1120 deaths in France today. A rich European country with a good health care system under a more stringent lockdown than the UK.

Anyone still believe the figures that came out of China?

You wonder whether cases emerged in December or even before too. 

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9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

1120 deaths in France today. A rich European country with a good health care system under a more stringent lockdown than the UK.

Anyone still believe the figures that came out of China?

I think you mean

did anyone ever believe the figures that came/and still do out of China ?

much as  North Korea where their are 0 cases

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12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

1120 deaths in France today. A rich European country with a good health care system under a more stringent lockdown than the UK.

Anyone still believe the figures that came out of China?

Only the gullible.....

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

You wonder whether cases emerged in December or even before too. 

Im a bit puzzled by those France figures. Yesterday, initially, they recorded around 450 deaths, but later in the night another 884 were added from deaths  in France that had occured in nursing homes in the last few weeks, so making the days total around 1350. But if todays total was just hospital deaths thats an unbelievable  increase from yesterdays 450. So im a bit puzzled about  those stats.

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Ok the France death toll of 1120 today includes another 520 that died in nursing homes, so the hospital deaths for today in France was around 600, which is more  believable. But add 520 to last nights 884...thats a heck of a lot of deaths in French nursing homes from Covid.

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Just now, Essjayess said:

Im a bit puzzled by those France figures. Yesterday, initially, they recorded around 450 deaths, but later in the night another 884 were added from deaths  in France that had occured in nursing homes in the last few weeks, so making the days total around 1350. But if todays total was just hospital deaths thats an unbelievable  increase from yesterdays 450. So im a bit puzzled about  those stats.

I'm not sure what the fascination, almost fetish, is with death numbers given how many variables there are involved

One infection in an elderly care home will distort the figures in one measurable are, all other things being equal. How many deaths  are to those thought to be at 'death's dor' ?  There is no reliable evidence of when the person contracted the virus to date of death ie is contracting the virus that caused the death known to be before or after the lockdown ?

Is there any genetic evidence as to why some survive and others don't.....medieval plague, 1918 flu pandemic, etc

It rather reminds me of the news where the Footsie figoures are announced....as if they are some measure of national well being. Whereas to the vast majority they are meaningless.

Is it a need for the populace to have some sort of comfort blanket  ?

Just as clapping last night afforded some for of action ?

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8 minutes ago, Bill said:

I'm not sure what the fascination, almost fetish, is with death numbers given how many variables there are involved

One infection in an elderly care home will distort the figures in one measurable are, all other things being equal. How many deaths  are to those thought to be at 'death's dor' ?  There is no reliable evidence of when the person contracted the virus to date of death ie is contracting the virus that caused the death known to be before or after the lockdown ?

Is there any genetic evidence as to why some survive and others don't.....medieval plague, 1918 flu pandemic, etc

It rather reminds me of the news where the Footsie figoures are announced....as if they are some measure of national well being. Whereas to the vast majority they are meaningless.

Is it a need for the populace to have some sort of comfort blanket  ?

Just as clapping last night afforded some for of action ?

Its no fetish Bill, its just a realisation that we are living in a global pandemic and global disaster that few of us have ever lived thru before. I would rather discuss and disect these kind of  figures  than discuss or disect political ramifications to do with how well  or not a government is coping or doing during this world disaster. We had 3 years of Brexit merry-go-rounding on this forum concerning such political goings on, and no doubt when this virus is under control there will be years more discussion and dissection of the World economy in the aftermath of the pandemic. So, right now, its the gory daily deaths, cases, what have you, that holds my attention, not how good or bad our government is doing.

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I'm interested if anyone has read any reports or interpretation of those Worldmeter bar charts? Because, if we look at those Italy graphs of new cases and the gradual decline in the last few days, and project forward, (looking at that the graph and the  rate of decline it is showing in the last 3 days), then could we say that new cases might be around zero (or very low) around the 10 May? This would mean the virus has worn out. This assumes that the trajectory of the decline is symmetrical to the ascent in cases.

Allegedly we are 15 days behind Italy (whose peak was around the 30 March for both cases and deaths). It gives a little glimmer of light if this is the case.

Or, we look at China's graph which perhaps gives a more likely scenario (despite the fact we might question the actual crude numbers), in that the downside of that graph is more gently sloping and cases fall to extremely low in roughly twice the length of time that they grew to a peak from scratch. Thus, the decline will not be symmetrical (lockdown and testing are clearly factors). If we use Italy then as the leading country in terms of case progression and a 'China type' downward slower, more gradual curve, then we might assume the end of July for an end to Italy's disease. Again, we are supposedly 15 days behind. 

In terms of football, it provides a crude guess to when normal society might  be able to resume.

I realise we don't know of course but just wondered if anyone had read any studies or projections.

Edited by sonyc

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The problem there is that the number of deaths tell us no more than hat tthe numbers

Deaths up bad

Deaths down good

and that is it. Nothing else, as I stated.

Believing that you can then set aside discussion on what we do know, to quite a depth, seems rather strange .......if not some attempt at distraction.

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6 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I'm interested if anyone has read any reports or interpretation of those Worldmeter bar charts?

All about as meaningful as astrology - given how they are so limited, and probably questionabel in accuracy in some cases.

Take a look at what happened in 1918. Gazing at tea leaves would not have given any indication of there being a second 'wave' nor that a mutation then killed the healthy. Nor that it woul suddenly end.

All that is being done is to hazzard a rough gues as to how the medical resources will cope. The rest is just worthless speculation.

Edited by Bill

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4 hours ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Those 2 weeks of the herd immunity approach with hindsight now look like a massive error. There will be big debate after all this whether it was medically or politically driven.

Stay safe everyone.

Well it certainly wasn't medically driven, that much is already clear........

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A very informative and quite positive read. It does point to the relative worthlessness of counting deaths as any indication of anything but..........the number of deaths

Too many areas to use as an example of how well things are now being done on a practical level

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/nightingale-emergency-coronavirus-hospital-london

maybe when this has quitened down a bit voters might take time to wonder how they sat back and allowed those services to be underfunded for so long, and how it is that the supposed magic money tree, far from not existing, has now appeared as a forest.

Yes, you...... the ones who happily trotted out that lie  and who saw no wrong in doing so, or voting for the same Tory MP's who cheered when they blocked a pay rise for nurses

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-nhs-nurses-election-2017-bbc-question-time-leaders-special-a7770371.html

 

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1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Well it certainly wasn't medically driven, that much is already clear........

Really? Chris Whitty et al were lying then?

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4 hours ago, sonyc said:

NHS faces shortfall of ventilators as manufacturers struggle

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/apr/03/nhs-faces-shortfall-of-ventilators-as-manufacturers-struggle-coronavirus?

The medical expert today on the daily ministerial address stated in response to a question about ventilator capacity that there was no concern at all where they are at. Yet, this story this evening seems to cast serious doubts. Who do we believe?

I don't know tbh. 

I'm sort of giving the govt the benefit of the doubt over ventilators as I believe  their manufacture can be quite a complex process. However, not having quite basic protective equipment and sufficient testing kits after a  2 month lead time seems very difficult to excuse. 

It just seems fundamentally wrong that we cannot provide basic equipment to key workers having known that this crisis was coming in January.

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19 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Really? Chris Whitty et al were lying then?

I know it's the New Statesman, which will put off some people from the start, but I think this article gives a pretty fair account of the evolution of the policy. 

The govt was slow in reacting, perhaps for understandable reasons. I can, to some extent, understand the delay in moving to more extreme measures, but I do find it indefensible that we don't have the PPE and testing equipment that is necessary. I cannot think of any justifiable reason why we should be so short of pretty basic material given that we knew what was coming. The precise timing of the most extreme action might have been quite a complex decision, but to obtain basic protective equipment seems to me to be a "no-brainer." My guess, and it is only that, is that the "upflow" of information to decision-makers was defective.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2020/04/real-reason-uk-government-pursued-herd-immunity-and-why-it-was-abandoned

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6 hours ago, sonyc said:

I'm interested if anyone has read any reports or interpretation of those Worldmeter bar charts? Because, if we look at those Italy graphs of new cases and the gradual decline in the last few days, and project forward, (looking at that the graph and the  rate of decline it is showing in the last 3 days), then could we say that new cases might be around zero (or very low) around the 10 May? This would mean the virus has worn out. This assumes that the trajectory of the decline is symmetrical to the ascent in cases.

Allegedly we are 15 days behind Italy (whose peak was around the 30 March for both cases and deaths). It gives a little glimmer of light if this is the case.

Or, we look at China's graph which perhaps gives a more likely scenario (despite the fact we might question the actual crude numbers), in that the downside of that graph is more gently sloping and cases fall to extremely low in roughly twice the length of time that they grew to a peak from scratch. Thus, the decline will not be symmetrical (lockdown and testing are clearly factors). If we use Italy then as the leading country in terms of case progression and a 'China type' downward slower, more gradual curve, then we might assume the end of July for an end to Italy's disease. Again, we are supposedly 15 days behind. 

In terms of football, it provides a crude guess to when normal society might  be able to resume.

I realise we don't know of course but just wondered if anyone had read any studies or projections.

Looking at the China graphs tell us nothing. To, we have not a single marker in Europe yet to tell us what to expect and once we do even get a marker, say Italy for instance, thats no evidence that graphs elsewhere will pan out the same as Italy. Just to many factors to make anywhere near  concrete evidence that things will go this way or that way. One thing Bill was right about was looking at the Spanish flu outbreak a century ago, nobody could surmise the actual twists and turns that happened then and we are lumbered with a virus that has a very stubborn outer shell, has already mutated differently in Europe than  the Chinese virus and the Brazilian one mutattion is different yet again. So asking how long will it take for Italy's cases or deaths to reach zero or very low is like saying how long is a piece of string.

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3 hours ago, Badger said:

t the "upflow" of information to decision-makers was defective

or in reality.....ignored.

Evidence of this has been repeatedky posted on here and elsewhere/

Just as the shortage of nurses can be laid at the door of those who cut the grants and bursaries, so can the above shortage be laid at the door of those who I suspect sought yet again to cut costs.

Why ?

Maybe it can be seen starkly in that Eton and others are deemed a charity so as to avoid paying tax, whereas non EU nurses are charged £625 to use the NHS. A change that Johnson increased from £400 last November. The latter being such an absurd move that folk should have been up in arms about it. Yet not a peep. Not a peep, when at the time th NHS had a shortnage of 100,000 staff and was paying agencies through the nose to cover vacant shifts.

to paraphrase John Dunne

'seek not for where the blame lies, it lies with thee

those who not only stood by and did nothing - but actually supported such action, and those on here who even now try to claim that criticism is down to tribalism - and that whatever our views it is us who determine how this pans out, not the shortage caused by government policy...............sick

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5 hours ago, Essjayess said:

 One thing Bill was right about was looking at the Spanish flu outbreak a century ago, nobody could surmise the actual twists and turns that happened then a

Maybe if some read up on that 1918 flu pandemic we might not get these 'astrological charts', horror scopes and face palm readings.

What this wiki article and upteen writings elsewhere show is that one hundred years later we do not have much in the way of conclusive answers. Theories abound, as does evidence....but not the answer.

So to speculate on a daily basis what will happen, and when, maybe a harmless pastime but it does have the concern that folk will place too much expectation on what should happen and become mistrustful when it doesn't.

My suggestion is to have a read of this, rather than study the form of this virus as that is about as reliable indicator of future behaviour as speculating on when ball number 47 was last drawn out in the lottery

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

 

 

Edited by Bill
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12 hours ago, ricardo said:

1120 deaths in France today. A rich European country with a good health care system under a more stringent lockdown than the UK.

Anyone still believe the figures that came out of China?

Why would anyone believe any of the figures from anywhere including the UK - we have been lied to frequently in the last few weeks.

Nevertheless, the evidence of what is actually happening on the ground is still very clearly saying that China and some of the other Asians states have coped with this crisis much better than most European states and of course the US who have failed horribly.

I think the obsession with the figures is driven by the prominence given to the modellers and what they can supposedly tell us about the spread\control of the virus but the models aren't that good and they are using data of spurious accuracy. We'd be a lot better off if we ditched the modellers and started listening more to the medical and public health experts who live in the real world and have hands on experience.

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42 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Why would anyone believe any of the figures from anywhere including the UK - we have been lied to frequently in the last few weeks.

Nevertheless, the evidence of what is actually happening on the ground is still very clearly saying that China and some of the other Asians states have coped with this crisis much better than most European states and of course the US who have failed horribly.

I think the obsession with the figures is driven by the prominence given to the modellers and what they can supposedly tell us about the spread\control of the virus but the models aren't that good and they are using data of spurious accuracy. We'd be a lot better off if we ditched the modellers and started listening more to the medical and public health experts who live in the real world and have hands on experience.

You believe China's figures more than European ones??

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5 hours ago, Bill said:

My suggestion is to have a read of this, rather than study the form of this virus as that is about as reliable indicator of future behaviour as speculating on when ball number 47 was last drawn out in the lottery

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu

Thank you for the link Bill - you are right it is something that I should have read before. It really is a depressing thought that the current virus may follow anything like the same pattern.

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48 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

You believe China's figures more than European ones??

We shouldn't believe any of them Ron at face value. 'Deaths' is a very dubious figure everywhere - what is a CV-19 death if you haven't tested i.e. deaths at home , cares homes etc even here let alone delays in notification! Some three months after the early China cases when the disease was little known and blind-sided everybody for a few weeks - our miserable response can still even today in the UK test only is it c. 10,000 /day.

Apparently there are likely 1.9M (yes million) CV-19 infections in the UK already. Add to that mutations as noted above and direct comparisons become somewhat tortuous. The trends are however are informative.

Frankly I see a lot of the political blame game deflection at play now.

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9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

IMO, he is constructing a straw man argument. I don't think anyone thinks that ventilators are a "panacea". Rather they believe that they may be a tool on the armoury that might help. Therefore if there is a shortage of this tool, we should address it. he gives some figures in the article that I thin k are illustrative:

"New England Journal of Medicine published a case series of very ill Covid-19 patients in Seattle with data up to March 23: of the twenty patients who went on a ventilator, only four had so far escaped the hospital alive. Nine had died. Three remained in suspended animation, going on three or four weeks of ventilation. Four escaped the ventilator but remained in hospital."

So out of 20 - 4 escaped hospital alive and 4 are now in hospital but off ventilation. 4 remain on ventilation after 3-4 weeks. Nine died. Of course we don't know how many would have survived without ventilation but the fact 8 seem significantly improved and 3 remain alive with some hope is surely better than not being able to ventilate people at all?

I don't think that ventilators are a panacea, but if I catch it very badly and ventilation might help, I would want there to be a ventilator available.

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The range of people already infected varies enormously depending on when infections started to spread and the R0 given the exponential increase so we will not know until antibody testing is performed. 
 

Germany is doing a random sample antibody test of 3000 thousand people in Munich this weekend which should start to give an indication of infection rates compared to confirmed antigen tests. This is a laboratory testing rather than the antibody test kits which everyone is still looking to develop in next few weeks which will give a better idea and are part of the exit strategy. 

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6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

We shouldn't believe any of them Ron at face value. 'Deaths' is a very dubious figure everywhere - what is a CV-19 death if you haven't tested i.e. deaths at home , cares homes etc even here let alone delays in notification! Some three months after the early China cases when the disease was little known and blind-sided everybody for a few weeks - our miserable response can still even today in the UK test only is it c. 10,000 /day.

Apparently there are likely 1.9M (yes million) CV-19 infections in the UK already. Add to that mutations as noted above and direct comparisons become somewhat tortuous. The trends are however are informative.

Frankly I see a lot of the political blame game deflection at play now.

I quite agree that none are entirely accurate, & can vary significantly in their accuracy. But the motivation for the inaccuracy matters, & I believe the amount of outright lying going on is much greater in China than in Europe.

The truth is nobody knows much. It looks fairly certain that S. Korea has had the best outcome, but all the other approaches, from Sweden to Germany to France to Spain, Belgium, Denmark ... they all seem to be producing the same trends in infection & death rates. Yet still the experts on here know the best approach to take, & that ours is the most incompetent, the most useless government in the developed world. Pathetic.

 

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6 hours ago, Bill said:

or in reality.....ignored.

 

Some of the govt's actions and that if its predecessors is inexcusable. The "magic money tree" argument was of course deeply flawed and recognised by many at the time, but exploited a lack of economic understanding of many of the electorate. Similarly the treatment of NHS staff and other "unskilled" staff has been deplorable.

My point here was a very specific one about the way that Johnson and Cummings seemed to trying to centralise government, away from the traditional power centres within the civil service. As illustrated by de facto sacking of the Chancellor, they wanted to by-pass the machinery of govt that might provide a differing opinion. It is likely therefore that information that and opinions thatmight have come their way was unavailable because of the way that they had chosen to try to organise govt.

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2 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

I quite agree that none are entirely accurate, & can vary significantly in their accuracy. But the motivation for the inaccuracy matters, & I believe the amount of outright lying going on is much greater in China than in Europe.

The truth is nobody knows much. It looks fairly certain that S. Korea has had the best outcome, but all the other approaches, from Sweden to Germany to France to Spain, Belgium, Denmark ... they all seem to be producing the same trends in infection & death rates. Yet still the experts on here know the best approach to take, & that ours is the most incompetent, the most useless government in the developed world. Pathetic.

 

I haven't seen anyone say that. Apart from anything else the US administration would take that prize. What is undeniable, based on all the evidence, is that the UK government squandered the time advantage it had over other countries by not preparing when it had the chance, and that there was a significant hurried change of policy away from the herd immunity strategy. And it is hardly just posters here. The Daily Mail, which would normally be a cheerleader for any Tory government, has been more critical than any other paper.

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