Corona Virus main thread

[Mark .Y. 351]

25 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Another obvious issue when looking at any of the sites, Worldometer, John Hopkins etc is that because the UK has not recorded recoveries since March 22nd it makes other numbers inaccurate to, such as Active Cases. For example Worldometer has UK having 33, 718  confirmed cases, of which 2.921 died and 135 recovered, they subtract that from confirmed  total and leave the rest as "Active cases" which in UK is shown as 30,662...so people recovered in UK since March 22nd, such as Prince Charles, are still included as an active case. This is another reason why a recovery list is needed.

One reason why sites like Worldometer should not have a % chart for closed cases (deaths and recoveries) is that its completely meaningless..the UK has 2921 deaths and 135 recoveries...so Worldometer has the death percentage for closed cases here at 96%.

Absolutely agree

[ron obvious 1,495]

https://www.straitstimes.com/singapore/health/most-workplaces-to-close-schools-will-move-to-full-home-based-learning-from-next

 

Midlevel bureaucrats in the city of Wuhan, where virus originated, and elsewhere in China have been lying about infection rates, testing and death counts, frightened that if they report numbers that are too high they will be punished, lose their position or be jailed.

12:04 PM · Apr 3, 2020·Twitter for iPad

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CIA in particular has been warning White House since at least early February that China has vastly understated its coronavirus infections and that its count could not be relied upon as countries compiles predictive models to fight the virus.

 

 

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Andrew Neil

 

@afneil

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US intelligence warns that getting a more accurate count of the Chinese rate of infection and deaths from the virus has worldwide public health implications when there is such uncertainty over the virus, its speed of transmission and other fundamentals.

 

 

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Andrew Neil

 

@afneil

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Chinese totals critical for better understanding of how Covid-19 will hit other countries in the months ahead and effectiveness of countermeasures like social distancing. No idea where this now leaves the Imperial model, which used Chinese figures and has guided UK policy

[Bill 1,788]

30 minutes ago, Monty13 said:

They are still unskilled...but now they are heroes. Who knew events could change the nature of things, or that people could be both...I’d argue most reasonable people know.

God this thread is full of boring political grandstanding.

welcome back ................ whoever you might be

sadly the point is missed by you

unskilled is a subjective term, and it is that those workers are no longer deemed to be that, not that they are supposedly heroes

[sonyc 5,484]

I read about Wuhan's funeral services and they have been cremating c.42,000 (over the last fortnight). 

Edited April 3, 2020 by sonyc

[Icecream Snow 761]

684 Deaths announced, so we're still on an upward death curve.

[Monty13 2,229]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

welcome back ................ whoever you might be

sadly the point is missed by you

unskilled is a subjective term, and it is that those workers are no longer deemed to be that, not that they are supposedly heroes

Unskilled isn’t subjective, if you can do a job with minimal training it’s unskilled. That hasn’t changed.

We are lucky that the people we need right now for the food production and distribution network  are almost entirely unskilled, because A) we now have a massive over abundance of unskilled people not working and B) that allows them to be taken on really easily which is what’s happening with 10s of thousands of workers moving into the industry in a matter of days.

Whether they are heroes or not is all that’s subjective, and that depends on your view.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Unskilled isn’t subjective, if you can do a job with minimal training it’s unskilled. That hasn’t changed.

What about Prime Minister or President? Or MOTD presenter?

[Essjayess 307]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

I read about Wuhan's funeral services and they have been cremating c.42,000 (over the last fortnight). 

Hong Kong, part of China these days, recorded 43 new cases...yet miraculously only 31 new cases in the other 1.4 billion Chinese...that alone stinks of inaccuracy and lies. So small is Hong Kong it used to be called a "pimple on Mao's nose", so yes its feeling like a huge watering down of deaths and  cases.

Yup 684 new deaths today...we are now close to Spain / Italy numbers...but the worry here is that the daily number is increasing  in big numbers with no sign of a slowing...would not surprise me to see us the nation that gets over 1000 a day ...even Italy's highest was 919.

[Badger 2,405]

4 minutes ago, Monty13 said:

Unskilled isn’t subjective, if you can do a job with minimal training it’s unskilled. That hasn’t changed.

 

I think that the point is that the Govt defines unskilled workers by the amount of money they are paid. Care workers, for example are defined as unskilled because they don't earn very much. 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/20/care-workers-like-me-arent-low-skilled-these-immigration-rules-will-risk-lives

 

[Monty13 2,229]

3 minutes ago, Badger said:

I think that the point is that the Govt defines unskilled workers by the amount of money they are paid. Care workers, for example are defined as unskilled because they don't earn very much. 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/20/care-workers-like-me-arent-low-skilled-these-immigration-rules-will-risk-lives

 

That’s just not true Badger, the person points out their lack of skills in the first paragraph as the reason they are unskilled “I would not have been able to enter the country 12 years ago. I came to the UK when I was 18 and began working part-time in care, while also working in hospitality and manufacturing. With no job offer or degree”

I’m not trying to bash care workers or the amazing work they do, but it doesn’t change the fact that the majority of care workers have little to no training in care and join the profession unskilled and that is why they earn very little.

The fact of the matter is if you join a profession that requires no background training you are likely to be paid poorly unless conditions are hazardous and/or it’s heavily unionised.

The correlation between training/education/experience and earning potential exists for a reason.

[sonyc 5,484]

15 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Hong Kong, part of China these days, recorded 43 new cases...yet miraculously only 31 new cases in the other 1.4 billion Chinese...that alone stinks of inaccuracy and lies. So small is Hong Kong it used to be called a "pimple on Mao's nose", so yes its feeling like a huge watering down of deaths and  cases.

Yup 684 new deaths today...we are now close to Spain / Italy numbers...but the worry here is that the daily number is increasing  in big numbers with no sign of a slowing...would not surprise me to see us the nation that gets over 1000 a day ...even Italy's highest was 919.

When we look at all  the countries total of case numbers and death rates once this pandemic (hopefully) ends, the percentages across the world are going to look very at odds in comparison .... especially given China's c.80k out of 1.3bn population. 

[ricardo 7,336]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

When we look at all  the countries total of case numbers and death rates once this pandemic (hopefully) ends, the percentages across the world are going to look very at odds in comparison .... especially given China's c.80k out of 1.3bn population. 

Quite plainly that is not a correct figure. Strange how all those citizen video's showing what was really happening, suddenly disappeared from the Internet.

Funny that.

[Rock The Boat 1,324]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

welcome back ................ whoever you might be

sadly the point is missed by you

unskilled is a subjective term, and it is that those workers are no longer deemed to be that, not that they are supposedly heroes

So you are saying that 'unskilled' is a social construct. Merely by saying something is not unskilled it ceases to be unskilled.

[Badger 2,405]

13 minutes ago, Monty13 said:

That’s just not true Badger, the person points out their lack of skills in the first paragraph as the reason they are unskilled “I would not have been able to enter the country 12 years ago. I came to the UK when I was 18 and began working part-time in care, while also working in hospitality and manufacturing. With no job offer or degree”

I’m not trying to bash care workers or the amazing work they do, but it doesn’t change the fact that the majority of care workers have little to no training in care and join the profession unskilled and that is why they earn very little.

The fact of the matter is if you join a profession that requires no background training you are likely to be paid poorly unless conditions are hazardous and/or it’s heavily unionised.

The correlation between training/education/experience and earning potential exists for a reason.

She also says,

"The government says we are “unskilled”, but one thing I know for sure is that care work is highly skilled. It is unacceptable that the government does not understand what social care is and what we, as care workers, do every day.

We are responsible for peoples’ lives, mobility, medication, and diet; we manage catheters, PEG feeds, stoma bags, and hoists, and collaborate closely with many other professionals. Our jobs and responsibilities are complex and they require diligence, insight, and attention to detail.

The new regulations confuse, wrongly, low pay with low skill."

[Monty13 2,229]

16 minutes ago, Badger said:

She also says,

"The government says we are “unskilled”, but one thing I know for sure is that care work is highly skilled. It is unacceptable that the government does not understand what social care is and what we, as care workers, do every day.

We are responsible for peoples’ lives, mobility, medication, and diet; we manage catheters, PEG feeds, stoma bags, and hoists, and collaborate closely with many other professionals. Our jobs and responsibilities are complex and they require diligence, insight, and attention to detail.

The new regulations confuse, wrongly, low pay with low skill."

I don’t mean to be rude, but the fact she feels she isn’t unskilled doesn’t make it so. 

She’s undoubtedly an experienced care worker, but that’s something different.

[TIL 1010 4,718]

3 hours ago, Monty13 said:

 

God this thread is full of boring political grandstanding.

What on earth has made you think that ? I look on here when seeking expert medical advice on the pandemic. 😂😛

[ricardo 7,336]

14 minutes ago, Monty13 said:

I don’t mean to be rude, but the fact she feels she isn’t unskilled doesn’t make it so. 

She’s undoubtedly an experienced care worker, but that’s something different.

If 20 million people can be trained to do a certain job proficiently then that job will not command the wage of one where only a few thousand are proficient. It shouldn't really be a difficult concept to understand.

[ricardo 7,336]

2 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

What on earth has made you think that ? I look on here when seeking expert medical advice on the pandemic. 😂😛

Stay safe and don't walk to Marks and Spencers.

My bill is in the post.😀

[Essjayess 307]

Locally, cases in Norfolk confirmed now as 207, with 38 deaths, up 7 from yesterday.

In Suffolk, 157 confirmed cases, with 20 deaths.

Sad times indeed.

[sonyc 5,484]

Have seen on wife's FB about two Norwich City fans that have died ....I'm guessing we've lost many more fans

[T 190]

Could someone tell me when the great soothsayers super market crisis arrives  because I’m still waiting. In fact the biggest problem Im facing at the moment is toilet roll blacking the aisles. Probably about the same rime they learn some commonsense logic and reason. Never. 

[Essjayess 307]

Certain data  could indicate that the UK could soon be much worse in death totals than either Spain or Italy had. On the graph that compared Italy and UK at same period in time the UK is now more than 1,000 deaths ahead of Italy and the gap is increasing at an ever faster rate. So unless the lockdown and social distancing has dramatic affects we could end up with the highest death tally of any nation in Europe. Anyone that thinks lockdown will be eased in a mere matter of weeks will be way wrong.

[Crafty Canary 495]

Yes, everything is going swimmingly in the EU, more toilet rolls than the UK, more testing than the UK, oh and more people infected and sadly dead in Italy and Spain than the UK.

I feel sadness for the people of Bergamo. The old city is beautiful and has some excellent restaurants. Well worth taking the fenicular railway up to see it should you ever visit.

 

[Canary Wundaboy 1,358]

Those 2 weeks of the herd immunity approach with hindsight now look like a massive error. There will be big debate after all this whether it was medically or politically driven.

Stay safe everyone.

[ron obvious 1,495]

13 minutes ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Those 2 weeks of the herd immunity approach with hindsight now look like a massive error. There will be big debate after all this whether it was medically or politically driven.

Stay safe everyone.

What is the evidence for that?

 

[Herman 9,700]

18 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

What is the evidence for that?

 

The death rate??

[ron obvious 1,495]

15 minutes ago, Herman said:

The death rate??

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/2apr2020/deaths-eu-norm.png

 

[sonyc 5,484]

I'm not sure yet how herd immunity will be understood in the ultimate analysis. The active case progression curves of most countries appears to follow a similar path. Countries are adopting similar social distancing, yet some more draconian than others (in relation to enforcement for example). The theory is that distancing slows the rate of person to person infection. And we were later in adoption following Imperial's scientic input. We don't know how many have had it and got better (and wouldn't this actually indicate herd immunity?). Reports that cannot be fully corroborated suggest near to 2m have had it.

The testing and PPE issues are areas for serious scrutiny in my view.

[sonyc 5,484]

1 minute ago, ron obvious said:

http://nrg.cs.ucl.ac.uk/mjh/covid19/2apr2020/deaths-eu-norm.png

 

Just posted my take on this. That most countries follow an 35% case progression initially then 22% then 13%.

[Badger 2,405]

3 minutes ago, sonyc said:

The testing and PPE issues are areas for serious scrutiny in my view.

Agree. It cannot be justified that key workers and NHS staff do not have the protective equipment they need.

As to the rest, which approach is best, it's too early to say. We don't have the full data yet - nor do we know whether the outbreak will revisit once it appears to have gone.