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2 hours ago, T said:

I think you will find most countries have been court short apart from some Asian countries which benefited from the SARS and MERS experience and Germany which invests more in healthcare. No doubt the UK will be better prepared as a result of this experience. It is human nature to make mistakes procrastinate and be poor at assessing risks. 

You keep holding Germany up as a shining example T, it will be interesting to see if in the end the final outcome there is any better than other European countries.

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The WHO has highlighted how serious this this and test test test from the start. Germany does expect the death rate  to increase for reasons mentioned but seriously where would you rather be in a country with over four times more ventilators per Head with the largest ventilator manufacturer or a country with four time less ventilators desperately seeking more from Tory party donors. People got what they consistently voted for. Low taxes and nationalism over healthcare. It seems people are very eager to blame but not willing to own up in their own culpability in all this. 

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1 minute ago, ricardo said:

Absolutely...as recently as March 18th Germany was recording just two deaths a day but in the last 10 days its started to rise fast..yesterday they recorded 84 deaths and today could go to above 100..their graph for daily new daths shows the same fast upward direction as all other European nations..for whatever reasons their's started  slightly later than some other EU nations, but end result will be similar.

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Well all the medics are.crying  out for more medics equipment and ventilators so if you still think they are wrong and blue passports are more important I wish you luck with that. It is going to be horrible in Germany as well but they invest more and have more healthcare so yes they are in a better position unless you are saying healthcare capacity is not important which is indeed what society voted for. 

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Well we have had the largest deaths in one day now. Certainly nowhere near other comparable countries in size. But it looks like the curve, flatter than others is starting to steepen. 

I wonder if we will see 700 deaths a day?

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14 minutes ago, T said:

The WHO has highlighted how serious this this and test test test from the start. Germany does expect the death rate  to increase for reasons mentioned but seriously where would you rather be in a country with over four times more ventilators per Head with the largest ventilator manufacturer or a country with four time less ventilators desperately seeking more from Tory party donors. People got what they consistently voted for. Low taxes and nationalism over healthcare. It seems people are very eager to blame but not willing to own up in their own culpability in all this. 

You have made the point repeatedly T and I hear you, but before crowing maybe just wait and see how this all shakes down.

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:

You have made the point repeatedly T and I hear you, but before crowing maybe just wait and see how this all shakes down.

when the wind is in the east the fish bite the least😀

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11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Very similar curves, hope to see ours flattening and dropping in around 3 weeks

In around 3 weeks?..what draws you to that idea VW?...hope?

I am looking the Spain stats as an example, also by what the CMO said earler this month in the UK. Spain has a population 20 million fewer than the UK, has been getting 500 or more deaths lately, with zero signs of stabilising, never mind dropping. I am no expert of course but looking at other nations to, like Netherlands, Belgium etc i dont even expect us to reach a peak for another 10-14 days, when the daily deaths could be anywhere between 600-1k a day. Boris' boffins stated  earlier this month they expected the peak period to last 10-14 weeks...thats roughly 3 months not 3 weeks..and only then start to slowly tail away...which could take another 3 months.

The reality is that here in Europe we have zero information to draw on as yet  no nation, not even Italy, has started to decrease daily deaths. This makes it hard for anybody to compare a situation like daily death increases. Same applies to daily new confirmed infected cases. I have to go with the experts and theyre saying 6 months in all.

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It will take out the vulnerable where ever you are. The NY governor said ultimately there experience was those that were going to die were going to die anyway so yes Germany is not expecting a big difference in overall death rates. But I know that a lots of punters on here are constantly crowing that they know better than experts but the medics think medical staff, equipment and ventilators are important especially for those in the balance between life and death. Why do you think everyone is trying to increase capacity. So you might think that you know better and medical staff equipment and ventilators are not important and you were right to prioritise nationalism over healthcare but I’d rather go with the experts on this one. 

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6 minutes ago, Van wink said:

You have made the point repeatedly T and I hear you, but before crowing maybe just wait and see how this all shakes down.

Interesting political side point made by T but inaccurate. Germany is one if the few EU countries to insist on private healthcare insurance for almost everyone - mostly via compulsory schemes imposed on employers, but including German nationals and all those who wish to be resident, whether they are EU nationals or otherwise. They have done this for years so there has been far more money in their health system as a result because private health insurers provide most of their care. But don't let facts get in the way of knocking the Tory party - I;m no defender of them usually, but can you imagine the uproar if they suggested the same here....?

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8 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

In around 3 weeks?..what draws you to that idea VW?...hope?

I am looking the Spain stats as an example, also by what the CMO said earler this month in the UK. Spain has a population 20 million fewer than the UK, has been getting 500 or more deaths lately, with zero signs of stabilising, never mind dropping. I am no expert of course but looking at other nations to, like Netherlands, Belgium etc i dont even expect us to reach a peak for another 10-14 days, when the daily deaths could be anywhere between 600-1k a day. Boris' boffins stated  earlier this month they expected the peak period to last 10-14 weeks...thats roughly 3 months not 3 weeks..and only then start to slowly tail away...which could take another 3 months.

The reality is that here in Europe we have zero information to draw on as yet  no nation, not even Italy, has started to decrease daily deaths. This makes it hard for anybody to compare a situation like daily death increases. Same applies to daily new confirmed infected cases. I have to go with the experts and theyre saying 6 months in all.

I hope that the latest social distancing rules will begin to show some effect, I hope we will see the peak in around 3 weeks and then it will flatten.We are 2 weeks behind Italy and their curve seems to be beginning to drop.. But yes I have used the word hope twice there!

Edited by Van wink

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2 hours ago, T said:

Well we know why Boris got chosen despite general misgivings. Because the majority considered a certain topic more important than healthcare.

2 hours ago, T said:

Well we know why Boris got chosen despite general misgivings. Because the majority considered a certain topic more important than healthcare.

Should the Govt also be blamed for the epidemic of poor diet and poor fitness which is a major. Underlying cause of vivid 19 deaths.   There is plenty of good advice on healthcare and coronavirus but unfortunately the majority of society has chosen to ignore it until the situation has become drastic.

Ultimately the government only reflects the attitudes of the majority of UK Society so if there is Problem you need to look at UK society and human nature more generally. 

 

The human nature' myth  falls here as it does every where else A vacuous cliche to cover what we deem as a failing in behaviour or action. I don't hear any talk of 'human nature' in the selfless acts being carried out up and down the country.

Nor do I agree that poor diet and lack of exercise has played any significant role in the number of deaths. It is in the main those with respiratory problems.

The majority have not chosen to ignore advice. The advice given in the UK has been muddled and contradictory. It is than almost everyone is following the avice that the few exceptions can be individually identified.

Governments do not reflect attitudes (see capital punishment) they usually seek to expolit the ignorance and fear they have spread. (79m Turks coming to the UK). In this case the failings have been all too obvious. The lessons from the SARS outbreak were not taken on board, neither was the evidence coming from Italy, despit advice from medical experts.

A decade of penny pinching cost cutting and failing to invest was always going to run the risk of colliding head on with a massive health problem like this.The blame lies four square with those who may not have been complicit, but were happy to go along with this.... and if reading these threads, seem more than willing to assist in that failing.

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7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I hope that the latest social distancing rules will begin to show some effect, I hope we will see the peak in around 3 weeks and then it will flatten.We are 2 weeks behind Italy and their curve seems to be begging to flatten. But yes I have used the word hope twice there!

Cant knock you for that VW...we all have hope i would imagine,  its vastly preferable to despair of course. 🙂

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17 minutes ago, sgncfc said:

Interesting political side point made by T but inaccurate. Germany is one if the few EU countries to insist on private healthcare insurance for almost everyone - mostly via compulsory schemes imposed on employers, but including German nationals and all those who wish to be resident, whether they are EU nationals or otherwise. They have done this for years so there has been far more money in their health system as a result because private health insurers provide most of their care. But don't let facts get in the way of knocking the Tory party - I;m no defender of them usually, but can you imagine the uproar if they suggested the same here....?

That is not true. There is government regulated public insurance or private insurance. My point is not about the Tory party but about a preference for lower taxes and lower healthcare. I’ve no doubt if all the polling was we would like to pay more tax and have better healthcare then that is what the tourest would go for

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16 minutes ago, Bill said:

The human nature' myth  falls here as it does every where else A vacuous cliche to cover what we deem as a failing in behaviour or action. I don't hear any talk of 'human nature' in the selfless acts being carried out up and down the country.

Nor do I agree that poor diet and lack of exercise has played any significant role in the number of deaths. It is in the main those with respiratory problems.

The majority have not chosen to ignore advice. The advice given in the UK has been muddled and contradictory. It is than almost everyone is following the avice that the few exceptions can be individually identified.

Governments do not reflect attitudes (see capital punishment) they usually seek to expolit the ignorance and fear they have spread. (79m Turks coming to the UK). In this case the failings have been all too obvious. The lessons from the SARS outbreak were not taken on board, neither was the evidence coming from Italy, despit advice from medical experts.

A decade of penny pinching cost cutting and failing to invest was always going to run the risk of colliding head on with a massive health problem like this.The blame lies four square with those who may not have been complicit, but were happy to go along with this.... and if reading these threads, seem more than willing to assist in that failing.

Seriously being fit and healthy obviously helps. Being overweight does not help you breath. Heart disease and diabetes are associated not all of course with lifestyle and covid  19 comorbidity. Yes people are bad at assessing risk unless it is right in front of them.  That is human nature. Blaming others rather than taking self responsibility is also human nature. 

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But the punter experts on here claiming medics and medical equipment do not matter is an all time classic even by their standards. I can only assume you use the local witch doctor as you think experts don’t know anything. 

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image.png.fae52a053a6e746d13116e54a9180c76.png

Maybe clutching at straws but possibly a difference between warmer and cooler countries

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9 minutes ago, T said:

But the punter experts on here claiming medics and medical equipment do not matter is an all time classic even by their standards. I can only assume you use the local witch doctor as you think experts don’t know anything. 

Perhaps you could point us to a relevant post.

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16 minutes ago, T said:

Seriously being fit and healthy obviously helps. Being overweight does not help you breath. Heart disease and diabetes are associated not all of course with lifestyle and covid  19 comorbidity. Yes people are bad at assessing risk unless it is right in front of them.  That is human nature. Blaming others rather than taking self responsibility is also human nature. 

No, otherwise if it was inherent in all humans we would all have the same problems

What about offering to work voluntarily to help others.....is that human nature as well ?

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34 minutes ago, T said:

That is not true. There is government regulated public insurance or private insurance. My point is not about the Tory party but about a preference for lower taxes and lower healthcare. I’ve no doubt if all the polling was we would like to pay more tax and have better healthcare then that is what the tourest would go for

Yes it is true. "Public" insurance is funded by what we would understand as regional organisations run by private insurance companies, who receive central grants - similar to the way we run our railways. I spent much of my career designing products for that market - and the point is that almost all the investment in recent years into the infrastructure of the German Health service has been made by private companies, not by government. Although Germany does spend more of its GDP on healthcare provision than the UK, it's marginal - and the UK spends a lot more than, for instance, Spain or Italy. The fact that they have more critical care beds than we do is NOT down to the amount of money spent, so please stop saying it is or trying to make political capital from a completely incorrect assumption.

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1 hour ago, sgncfc said:

Interesting political side point made by T but inaccurate. Germany is one if the few EU countries to insist on private healthcare insurance for almost everyone - mostly via compulsory schemes imposed on employers, but including German nationals and all those who wish to be resident, whether they are EU nationals or otherwise. They have done this for years so there has been far more money in their health system as a result because private health insurers provide most of their care. But don't let facts get in the way of knocking the Tory party - I;m no defender of them usually, but can you imagine the uproar if they suggested the same here....?

Not actually correct because there are effectively state sponsored insurance schemes or private schemes. 

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The healthcare system works better in Germany. I have professional and personal experience of both as I work internationally. They do spend more. Medics and medical equipment and testing matters. And In this instance ICU and ventilators do matter so Germany is better placed than the UK. They are also more willing to follow expert instruction. 
 

I’m not trying to make a political point.  I’m not particularly left or right wing. The current government and former health secretary agree with me as they had already decided to spend more on healthcare. It was a point on different societies have different cultures and priorities. In this case Germany is in a better position to deal with this. More about society rather than government or politics as far as I’m concerned rather than politics. 

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58 minutes ago, ricardo said:

image.png.fae52a053a6e746d13116e54a9180c76.png

Maybe clutching at straws but possibly a difference between warmer and cooler countries

Its now been officially confirmed by leading World Health authorities  ricardo that the virus  is unaffeced by temperature, be it hot or cold. Main difference  with graphs is that much of the warmer  tropics and also southern hemisphere are not yet at a stage of virus speed infection as Europe and USA which are further north, But in South America, ive noticed in just the last week the rate of confirmed cases and deaths  starting to rise faster every day, its like a re enacment of where Europe was just a couple or so weeks back.

Todays local stats for Norfolk....90 cases now confirmed +20 on yesterday. 9 deaths in total.

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From reading comments actually coming out of Germany, a lot of the people who have had the virus in Germany are of a lower age than for other countries such as Italy (in Germany over 80% of those confirmed to have the disease are under 60). They also appear to report their Coronavirus deaths differently, which may lower the numbers. Another factor may be their excellent testing system.

OTBC

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11 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Its now been officially confirmed by leading World Health authorities  ricardo that the virus  is unaffeced by temperature, be it hot or cold. Main difference  with graphs is that much of the warmer  tropics and also southern hemisphere are not yet at a stage of virus speed infection as Europe and USA which are further north, But in South America, ive noticed in just the last week the rate of confirmed cases and deaths  starting to rise faster every day, its like a re enacment of where Europe was just a couple or so weeks back.

Todays local stats for Norfolk....90 cases now confirmed +20 on yesterday. 9 deaths in total.

Well, they are now entering the southern hemisphere winter

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Well, they are now entering the southern hemisphere winter
 
I'm not sure that gives any more hope Ricardo. I think there was initial hope that warmth would kill it off. Egypt has 60 cases at the moment. Iraq is in the throes of violence once again and it is difficult to get figures accurately. But they do have it and there have been at least one death.
South Africa, whose autumn is very similar to our spring/early summer has already 1200 cases but only one fatality. But if it gets into the Townships then there is no hope of mirroring what the rest of us are trying to achieve.
The redeeming information seems to be that despite the number of cases, the death rate is lower.
I think the biggest fear could be Syria. If it gets into Idlib and such places then it could be around for a long, long time.
 
 
 
 
 
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And of course I should have mentioned the second most populous country, India. It has 900 cases and 20 deaths. 

I think the hope that warmth would stop it may just be a hope.

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In the end almost all of us will catch Coronavirus and some of us will die. 

The government is simply seeking to delay and lower the averages because although no health system in the world could cope with a flood of cases that is not the same thing as coping with a reasonable number. 

Also, the government needs time to procure equipment and beds. 

On an individual level we are doing the same thing but in the end we will catch it.  We can only hope for mild symptoms. 

This is why, when resources reach a certain level society has to get back to normal. 

In 1914 if you were a working class lad you and your pals would have been expended in Flanders. 

In 1939 - 45 if you were a Grammar school boy you would have been confronted with a short life expectancy in Bomber Command. 

History is littered with mortality but since 1945 ordinary people, although living with the threat of nuclear war, have enjoyed the longest period in British history of unconscripted  warfare. 

Before that, in particular as a working class person you would have faced a short life of discomfort, untreated pain, disease, high infant and mother mortality and a high risk of death in warfare. 

We have happily become used to comfort and longevity. We expect the state to care for our ills but now a plague has arrived. 

It predominantly kills not young people in their prime or children, it hits the other end of the scale, the people who are only around in such numbers because of modernity. That modernity is based upon an economic model being destroyed to combat the virus. 

Cherish again the things in life you took for granted, use this time well in other ways, promise to make the most of life hereafter, it is a gift. 

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