Corona Virus main thread

[Indy 3,283]

16 minutes ago, Pockthorpe said:

 

Indy , I don’t think you got the point I was trying to make about Richard Horton and his kind . 

I do, just expanding, you’re right.

Till there’s high level of testing to know exactly how prevalent this has been it’s all in the air. The only facts are the numbers testing positive and loss of life is increasing in the current results.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Indy

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

I think we have to treat some statements like marks in Ice Skating. Take away the top and bottom and use those in the middle.

For instance, in Cornwall it was reported we have 37 cases and 7 deaths. Nearly a 20% death rate. I don't believe that for a minute. There has to be many more people with it but self isolating.

[Badger 2,404]

1 hour ago, Pockthorpe said:

I see Richard Horton , editor of the Lancet , had a lot to say for himself on Question Time . That it’s a national scandal ....we shouldn’t be in this situation.......it was clear what was coming in January and we wasted February.......

Not what he was saying back then .  Here’s a tweet from him 24/1/20 07.18

”A call for caution please . Media are escalating anxiety by talking if a “killer virus “+ “growing fears” . In truth , from what we currently know , 2019-nCov has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity . There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language “

Wow . People like him make me so f****** angry . At this moment , when people are ill and dying and NHS staff like my son are working against this , him and his ilk are totally f****** useless bits of kit . 
 

Yes, perhaps,  but he learnt quickly unlike the govt! A lead article in the Lancet (which he edits) said:

"We have to be aware of the challenge and concerns brought by 2019-nCoV to our community. Every effort should be given to understand and control the disease, and the time to act is now."

Clearly he was correct in saying that we wasted February. Despite your invective against him, you are obviously angry at the wrong people!

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30185-9/fulltext

 

 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Badger
Link inserted

[Badger 2,404]

1 hour ago, Pockthorpe said:

But when it’s someone just blowing their own trumpet and saying it was all obvious back in January, when at the time he was saying different !! That’s what gets my goat !!

Or from the 31st January:

"Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

 

[Fuzzar 1,702]

5 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Is it possible it was just another winter virus?

The statistics for Norfolk suggest that the virus arrived here in a big way in the last 2 weekends, probably from people visiting from London. Early on, the hospital at King's Lynn was more affected than Norwich and I assume that covers the North Norfolk coast. 

The virus is so virulent that it seems unlikely it was here before then, otherwise our figures would be way higher than they are now. 

Perhaps, of course. But if we'd known the symptoms then, we'd definitely have self-isolated.

We visited Norwich from our home in Herefordshire at the end of Jan to sort out my father's affairs, who had sadly passed away the previous week (from exactly what is unclear). He'd been in hospital in Norwich before Christmas then a hospice in Cromer until he died.

We'd eaten at a Chinese buffet on the Saturday around the time of Chinese New Year, so perfectly feasible that some of the staff had been to, and returned from, China and that's potentially where we'd picked it up. The first confirmed case in Herefordshire was only a couple of weeks ago.

I don't think we're ever going to accurately know what percentage of the population herd has had it.

[ricardo 7,328]

16 minutes ago, Badger said:

Or from the 31st January:

"Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally."

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext

 

And here is what the WHO said a week later in another example of revisionism and giving totally mixed messages

World Health Organization (WHO)

 

✔ @WHO

 

Replying to @WHO and 7 others

 

"We reiterate our call to all countries not to impose restrictions that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade.

Such restrictions can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit"-@DrTedros #2019nCoV #EB146

 

136

4:42 PM - Feb 4, 2020

[Pockthorpe 527]

57 minutes ago, Badger said:

Yes, perhaps,  but he learnt quickly unlike the govt! A lead article in the Lancet (which he edits) said:

"We have to be aware of the challenge and concerns brought by 2019-nCoV to our community. Every effort should be given to understand and control the disease, and the time to act is now."

Clearly he was correct in saying that we wasted February. Despite your invective against him, you are obviously angry at the wrong people!

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30185-9/fulltext

 

 

Badger , you’ve been busy with the Lancet ! I’ve now read the articles you pointed out and I see why you wanted to pull me up on it . 
Still not sure of the benefit to the effort in the here and now of proclamations of national scandal etc . But I don’t want to have a row about it ! 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Pockthorpe

[Fuzzar 1,702]

https://www.cambridgeindependent.co.uk/news/cambridge-virologist-explains-what-we-know-and-dont-know-about-covid-19-9104220/

Worth a read

[Badger 2,404]

31 minutes ago, ricardo said:

"We reiterate our call to all countries not to impose restrictions that unnecessarily interfere with international travel and trade.

Why would you impose restrictions that unnecessarily interfere  with international travel and trade? Surely the aim should be to do what is necessary but to try to keep other things going?

On 30th January the WHO made a statement outlining what they thought was necessary:

"The Committee believes that it is still possible to interrupt virus spread, provided that countries put in place strong measures to detect disease early, isolate and treat cases, trace contacts, and promote social distancing measures commensurate with the risk. It is important to note that as the situation continues to evolve, so will the strategic goals and measures to prevent and reduce spread of the infection. The Committee agreed that the outbreak now meets the criteria for a Public Health Emergency of International Concern ..."

The WHO recognised the problem, but did not think that unnecessarily interfering with international travel/ trade was part of the solution. They said, 

"Countries should place particular emphasis on reducing human infection, prevention of secondary transmission and international spread...The Committee does not recommend any travel or trade restriction based on the current information available."  

It seems to me that the WHO was on top of the issue and has responded proportionately to a complex issue. Why then, when they were advising early detection in January, we still do not have enough testing kits is the real question, along with the way that we don't have adequate PPE for NHS staff and care-workers, and other critical staff let alone for the population at large?

I find it difficult to avoid the conclusion that the govt was asleep at the wheel as the Lancet has charged.

[Badger 2,404]

30 minutes ago, Pockthorpe said:

Still not sure of the benefit to the effort in the here and now of proclamations of national scandal etc . But I don’t want to have a row about it ! 

I certainly don't want a row about it - but I think that it is important that the govt are called to account for lack of preparedness. The more political heat they feel, the more attention they will pay to addressing the issue that they should have looked at before.

We can't change the past, but we can hopefully, through pressure, change the future and hopefully learn from current mistakes. I fear Covid 19 may not be the last global pandemic. The fear is that we have something as deadly as previous varieties (like SARs and MERs) but more easily spreadable due to slower emergence of symptoms. We have to move quickly now and prepare better next time!

[T 190]

I think you will find most countries have been court short apart from some Asian countries which benefited from the SARS and MERS experience and Germany which invests more in healthcare. No doubt the UK will be better prepared as a result of this experience. It is human nature to make mistakes procrastinate and be poor at assessing risks. 

[PurpleCanary 5,553]

I think there are two possible charges against the government, and I would say this no matter which party was in power. One that Johnson, given all we know about his personality and his wish not to lose popularity, erred on the side of not being draconian too quickly. Even now, for example, the restrictions on going outside are so vague that people are in effect flouting them, particularly in terms of exercising etc outside. So much so that the police don't know what is permissable and what is not.

Whereas in France, my ex-colleagues who live there tell me,  every day you go for a constitutional walk you have to fill in an addressed,  dated and timed form so the gendarmes know if you have exceeded the 1km from home and one hour allowance. If you have it is a set fine on the spot. And France is hardly a country/people who value their individuality and freedoms less that the British.

It is a matter of degree and judgment in a terrible situation but I would say Johnson has erred too towards putting off tough decisions. The other charge, which I would say is more obviously valid (very much with Badger on this), is that the government didn't understand and prepare anything like quickly enough once the situation in China became known.

Edited March 28, 2020 by PurpleCanary

[T 190]

The UK is following a similar curve to most countries so hardly alone in this

[dylanisabaddog 4,842]

2 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

I think there are two possible charges against the government, and I would say this no matter which party was in power. One that Johnson, given all we know about his personality and his wish not to lose popularity, erred on the side of not being draconian too quickly. Even now, for example, the restrictions on going outside are so vague that people are in effect flouting them, particularly in terms of exercising etc outside. So much so that the police don't know what is permissable and what is not.

Whereas in France, my ex-colleagues who live there tell me,  every day you go for a constitutional walk you have to fill in an addressed,  dated and timed form so the gendarmes know if you have exceeded the 1km from home and one hour allowance. If you have it is a set fine on the spot. And France is hardly a country/people who value their individuality and freedoms less that the British.

It is a matter of degree and judgment in a terrible situation but I would say Johnson has erred too towards putting off tough decisions. The other charge, which I would say is more obviously valid (very much with Badger on this), is that the government didn't understand and prepare anything like quickly enough once the situation in China became known.

This is not a dig at the Conservative Party but at Johnson. He ended the first televised press conference by telling people to carry on shaking hands. That must go down as the most idiotic statement a Prime Minister has ever made. He has looked totally out of his depth throughout. I can't stand any of them but Michael Gove was better. 

[T 190]

Well we know why Boris got chosen despite general misgivings. Because the majority considered a certain topic more important than healthcare. 
 

Should the Govt also be blamed for the epidemic of poor diet and poor fitness which is a major. Underlying cause of vivid 19 deaths.   There is plenty of good advice on healthcare and coronavirus but unfortunately the majority of society has chosen to ignore it until the situation has become drastic. 
 

Ultimately the government only reflects the attitudes of the majority of UK Society so if there is Problem you need to look at UK society and human nature more generally. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by T

[Indy 3,283]

It’s far too easy to be critical, government, Johnson but there’s also criticism of each individual who needs to be told! We were all guided yet took no notice, then we’ve been strictly told, now some want to see draconian measures in place because other countries are taking those measures. But the results in every country bar Germany, who appear to have the same infection rates but their attributed deaths to the virus are lower, that makes me wonder if they aren’t attributing all deaths like other countries using different tool, so which country has done it right?

 

[Indy 3,283]

4 minutes ago, T said:

Well we know why Boris got chosen despite general misgivings. Because the majority considered a certain topic more important than healthcare. 
 

Should the Govt also be blamed for the epidemic of poor diet and poor fitness?  There is plenty of good advice on healthcare and coronavirus but unfortunately the majority of society has chosen to ignore it until the situation has become drastic. 

Agreed.

[kick it off 1,948]

19 minutes ago, Indy said:

 But the results in every country bar Germany, who appear to have the same infection rates but their attributed deaths to the virus are lower, that makes me wonder if they aren’t attributing all deaths like other countries using different tool, so which country has done it right?

I spotted something on Twitter about that - Germany's death rate is low due to a combination of more ventilators, and also they are recording deaths as being caused by the underlying problem rather than Covid19. I don't know the ins and outs of it, but the guy saying it appeared credible (as in health professional, blue tick) and others in the media were retweeting and agreeing with him.

[T 190]

Also due to more testing of contacts and because a younger demographic with disease with a lot of people catching it from half term ski holidays.
 

As prof Ferguson said about half to two thirds would be expected to die shortly from the underlying conditions so no doubt coronavirus shortening lives but of those with underlying conditions.

No doubt some dying through no fault of their own but there is a fundamental lesson here for people to live healthier lives. That is tougher and requires self action rather than simply  blaming the government. 
 

In the UK you would expect approx 1800 to die a day on average so there is an element of coronavirus shifting when those deaths occur. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by T

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

I believe that Ferguson still thinks it is highly critical. He estimated 14K out of 20K would have probably died. That is still 30%  who would not have.

[ricardo 7,328]

1 hour ago, Badger said:

Why would you impose restrictions that unnecessarily interfere  with international travel and trade? Surely the aim should be to do what is necessary but to try to keep other things going?

 

The WHO recognised the problem, but did not think that unnecessarily interfering with international travel/ trade was part of the solution. They said, 

You left out the most telling part of the quote in your criticism

Such restrictions can have the effect of increasing fear and stigma, with little public health benefit"-@DrTedros #2019nCoV #EB146

 

136

4:42 PM - Feb 4, 2020

 

Oh deary me, stigma and fear, little health benefit, that changed pretty quickly didn't it. Flights were still coming in from infected regions thanks to this attitude and it wasn't until countries took independant action that the WHO information changed to follow suit. They should have been leading but they weren't.

 

Their main concern in the early days of this epidemic was to deflect any criticism of China and it was very noticeable how they delayed calling a world wide pandemic until long after it was patently obvious to everybody else that we were living through one. Anybody following their regular tweets could see the sudden change in their attitude came far too late. The WHO have certainly not covered themselves in glory during this crisis.

 

[T 190]

Neither have those who thought nationalism was more important than healthcare. 
 

Still some people haven’t grasped these things spread. There was pandemics long before there we’re flights 

Easy to blame. Harder to vote for increased taxes and taking the effort to stay fit and healthy. 

[T 190]

S Korea is probably the best example and they have been doing exactly what the WHO said all along. Testing. Testing Testing. 

[Essjayess 307]

I really dont understand what  this Boris bashing is all about. I take a neutral stance as regards him or most politicians but to be fair to him, i believe hes acted in the best way possible all these past weeks as any any PM could have possibly done, and mostly at the right times to, taking all things into account. I will not try to argue on his behalf about any one point thats happened in these past weeks because its clear to see from posts in a forum such as this one or any other one, any one thing a poster highlights can then be argued against by another poster and we end up going around in circles, as happened in the 3 year long Brexit topic.

Often these past weeks, ive pretty much found myself agreeing with someone like T, im sure in other topics i may have disagreed with him, thats how life is, we all have our own opinions. Ask someone in a nation like Sweden what they think about the UK lockdown, theyve been running at about the same timescale as us regarding the virus, yet up till today all schools, bars, clubs etc are still open, any restrictions are very mild and mostly reliant on the population agreeing on advice, not order. As of today only around 70 ot the worlds approx. 200 nations have lockdowns, over 4 billion people with no restrictions at all.

So overall i think Boris has done all he could do and again, remember, his actions have been based on the advice given to him by the scientific and medical people and also they said from day one that certain actions would be taken at the appropiate times. Boris has to go with what those experts say, not what some Joe public says in a forum.

Every nation, from China onwards, have had to learn hard lessons, simply because this virus shows no mercy and is the first global pandemic for at least a century. If there is a fault, then Mrs. Wei can likely, has likely, told us where that fault lies. A simple lady, selling Shrimp delicacies on her stall, is caught short, goes to a toilet shared with other wild animal meat providers, meat slaughtered right there on site, with no health regulations of any kind. Animals including Pangolins, scientifically proven now to have the same strand make ups as Covid 19. She  very quickly became ill,  visited several Wuhan hospitals over the course of a week, eventually her notoriety became being the first classified  and proven person with this new virus, in the first half of December. Some dubbed her case zero, yet its now thought that the virus was at that market and forming its deadly effects as early as mid November.

The Chinese authorities should be damned for allowing such a market to exist, 17 years after a similar thing in another market led to SARS. Their actions against Coronavirus is commendable, but really only they could clampdown  an area in such a way as they did.

Finally, no doubt our nation and many others , after this event, will be earnestly looking at their healthcare systems and finally realising how inadequate they were. Our NHS is amazing, but i would actually say that imo its not had enough money and resources  thrown its way going all the way back to the 80s. Successive governments have not done anywhere near enough, and its been more noticeable this past decade of course against a backdrop of Austerity policies.

[Badger 2,404]

24 minutes ago, ricardo said:

You left out the most telling part of the quote in your criticism

 

Sorry Ricardo, but I don't think that this was the most important part of the WHO response, They recommended in January that:

countries put in place strong measures to detect disease early, isolate and treat cases, trace contacts, and promote social distancing measures commensurate with the risk.

Stopping international trade was beyond their powers and would have proven unhelpful. I don't really think that it gets the govt off the hook for not having testing kits or protective equipment, especially when all the evidence was about the importance of testing.

It is easier at times to blame others, but really we should look at that which we can control ourselves. In this respect, our response was inadequate.

[Badger 2,404]

18 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

So overall i think Boris has done all he could do

Except buy sufficient testing kits and protective equipment. he could have done more in these areas but didn't. I'm not sure that he took the right decision over ventilators either but we will see about that one..

[ricardo 7,328]

1 minute ago, Badger said:

Sorry Ricardo, but I don't think that this was the most important part of the WHO response, They recommended in January that:

countries put in place strong measures to detect disease early, isolate and treat cases, trace contacts, and promote social distancing measures commensurate with the risk.

Stopping international trade was beyond their powers and would have proven unhelpful. I don't really think that it gets the govt off the hook for not having testing kits or protective equipment, especially when all the evidence was about the importance of testing.

It is easier at times to blame others, but really we should look at that which we can control ourselves. In this respect, our response was inadequate.

It may well have been inadequate but largely due to a very complacent attitude from the WHO. Having followed this closely from the beginning I know that I am not alone in coming to this conclusion. I happen to agree with the opinion expressed in the Lancet eight weeks ago but there is little doubt that the WHO downplayed this crisis for far too long. Unfortunately some of our own scientific and medical authorities found themselves caught between two stools and initially chose the wrong one. What we ended up with is a clear case of different sets of experts advocating different responses for far too long.

[ricardo 7,328]

1 hour ago, T said:

I think you will find most countries have been court short apart from some Asian countries which benefited from the SARS and MERS experience and Germany which invests more in healthcare. No doubt the UK will be better prepared as a result of this experience. It is human nature to make mistakes procrastinate and be poor at assessing risks. 

I see German serious or critical suddenly leapt from 20 to 1581. I doubt we will see much difference between any of the European countries when the final figures are in.

[Essjayess 307]

And so..that very silly graph  from just 2 days ago, by leading statiticians including Tim Pike and incredibly, based on the China model for virus increase and not on any European model, which said that the UK peak deaths day would be April 5th with 260 cases, has been blown away just 2 days later. 260 deaths today Tim and set to rise to Italy and Spain numbers in next  couple weeks....next time...learn to make a graph  based on a model thats appropiate to a local region, not a model half a globes disance away.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, kick it off said:

I spotted something on Twitter about that - Germany's death rate is low due to a combination of more ventilators, and also they are recording deaths as being caused by the underlying problem rather than Covid19. I don't know the ins and outs of it, but the guy saying it appeared credible (as in health professional, blue tick) and others in the media were retweeting and agreeing with him.

More to it than that, age profile of people in the initial outbreak was younger in Germany and they tend to recover in an ICU, the outlook for recovery of older people in ICU is pretty grim. Each country will have its own outbreak and there will be many variables, at a basic level you can compare but it needs much more sophisticated analysis to draw meaningful conclusions. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Van wink