Corona Virus main thread

[Essjayess 307]

10 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-52058788

181 deaths announced in the UK, can't see this peaking at 260

exactly...what i was saying yesterday after seeing the graph  produced by leading statisticians based on the Chinese outbreak..utterly crazy..everyone and his dog has known for  a couple weeks or more that the Eurpean outbreak has no similarities  to the Chinese outbreak model. We should look at how Italy and Spain are doing, not on graphs based on China. I said a week ago that France is around a week behind Italy and we are 5-7 days behind France..they had 400 deaths yesterday...thats us in a few days time..and likely 600 or 700 in 10-14 days. The  highest estimate to, based on the Chinese model, was 7100 deaths..that is an extraordinary  low number and wildly optimistic.

See that Matt Hancock is tested positive to.

[Essjayess 307]

Of note to was number of testings increased from 104 to 113,000..nearly 9,000 in the day and the highest so far.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

1 hour ago, Essjayess said:

exactly...what i was saying yesterday after seeing the graph  produced by leading statisticians based on the Chinese outbreak..utterly crazy..everyone and his dog has known for  a couple weeks or more that the Eurpean outbreak has no similarities  to the Chinese outbreak model. We should look at how Italy and Spain are doing, not on graphs based on China. I said a week ago that France is around a week behind Italy and we are 5-7 days behind France..they had 400 deaths yesterday...thats us in a few days time..and likely 600 or 700 in 10-14 days. The  highest estimate to, based on the Chinese model, was 7100 deaths..that is an extraordinary  low number and wildly optimistic.

See that Matt Hancock is tested positive to.

The Chinese clamped down very hard very early by comparison to us (UK)  in particular - us being 'asleep'' at the wheel. 

Edited March 27, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Essjayess 307]

Looking at the numbers YF, i think all of Europe was asleep at the wheel. Isee the CMO has now got Covid like symptoms  to.

Herd Immunity is alive and well, with Boris and his Boffins leading by example.

[Aggy 752]

Not sure I’d treat the figures in China as too reliable either

[Icecream Snow 761]

So both the Prime Minister and the Health Secretary have tested positive for the virus, and the Chief Medical Officer is self isolating because he has symptoms of the virus too.

The cat will be running the show at this rate.

[Essjayess 307]

Some up to date stats...Italy in 16th day of lockdown, todays new deaths  reach a new record high of 919..still no sign of a definite improvement  at all...confirms to me that European lockdowns  will have a much slower impact on stabilising then decreasing than what happened in China..and China is nearing its 3rd month in lockdown. Realistically European lockdowns will be 6 months minimum, maybe longer.

Locally in Norfolk...cases confirmed  now at 70...up 19 from Thursdays 51.  5 deaths in total so far in Norfolk.

Suffolk...steep rise in new cases to total 61 now.

[Icecream Snow 761]

Interesting graph from the FT, even with squashing the axis.

 

[Aggy 752]

28 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

 

The cat will be running the show at this rate.

Is that a good or bad thing?

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

2 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Is that a good or bad thing?

catastrophic

[Icecream Snow 761]

3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Is that a good or bad thing?

Dominic Cummings laying out his strategy and the cat just sods off.... 😁

[Essjayess 307]

37 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

So both the Prime Minister and the Health Secretary have tested positive for the virus, and the Chief Medical Officer is self isolating because he has symptoms of the virus too.

The cat will be running the show at this rate.

No worries at all...step forward Michael to the lecturn..good to see some of our Gove-rnment still on their feet.

[Mello Yello 2,281]

39 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

So both the Prime Minister and the Health Secretary have tested positive for the virus, and the Chief Medical Officer is self isolating because he has symptoms of the virus too.

The cat will be running the show at this rate.

A paws for thought.....There must be a claws somewhere.....?

[sonyc 5,492]

24 minutes ago, Icecream Snow said:

Interesting graph from the FT, even with squashing the axis.

 

This graph I think is the most informative of any. It just shows how early testing and tracing on a huge scale is a solid strategy. It needs population-wide support and high levels of coordination supported by strong leadership. Once you measure (anything) you monitor it and make your decisions. Lives saved.

[Essjayess 307]

more stuff from the virus sites...USA has reached 100,000 confirmed cases. South Africa reaches 1,000 cases.

Indonesia's Health system is overwhelmed.

[Ramrod 258]

The testing to deaths rate is irrelevant. 

Millions have had this virus because at the rate of infection and time it arrived here that has to be the case. 

A lot of people seem to think it began when Boris hardened the rules this week. Before that it was being spread liberally. 

We know how many die. We don't know how many died WITH Covid 19 or OF Covid 19. 

The media likes to highlight young cases and especially deaths but without a post mortem or information on the health of the person this is just them seeking effect. 

What we absolutely need to clarify is why some people are so adversely affected and others barely or not at all. Are there different strains or is it just down to the condition of the victim. 

With a typical case of common flu Boris and Hancock would be too unwell to carry on working, talk via video link or even get out of bed but they have such mild Covid 19 they just need to isolate. 

Famous people have the virus because it is so widespread it is the law of averages, but because of who they are they are tested. 

At some point in the near future we will need to accept the country has to go back to work and normal routines. We need a test for antibodies to identify how many have had it, we need to be in a position to treat large numbers of serious cases and we need to re-open the economy. 

There is an awful equation here:

As a compassionate society we need to provide medical care. 

But, we also need to earn a living, avoid a massive debt for younger generations, treat people for other conditions, save the economy, prevent mental health and child development issues, stave off civil disorder, protect our way of life etc. 

At present we are trying to go against our habits and instincts. We cannot cuddle our Grandchildren, we cannot even be with loved ones as they die. 

The police are struggling to properly come to terms with implementing new powers. Drones for God's sake! 

And because so many people turned up at Snowdonia you now can't drive to the beach for a quiet walk.

Policy makers have confused us. They are on a steep learning curve but have struggled with their messages. 

And still flights arrive from all over the world. In the meantime, China allows one flight in per week and quaranteens those arriving. 

The PRC is a despicable country, expanding its navy to project power and seeking dominance. It is a secretive communist state with poor human rights. 

China owns a lot of Western debt, especially American, and will probably own much more after all this. What we are seeing is a massive wealth transference from West to East and we will be their clients. 

It is vital major companies stop producing in China which involves sharing intellectual property with them. 

China wants things to be developed in China, not just made there but to do that it plagiarises because the system there prohibits the kind of free thinking needed to create the ideas. Ai Wei Wei is despised in his native China because he is free thinking, creative and above all, critical. 

The only way to bring China down a few pegs is to stop producing there and stop buying products made there. This will cause unemployment and spark unrest which is simmering anyway. 

This virus is working so well for China, exported via thousands of student and tourist visas, you'd have to admit, as a hostile act to damage competing economies it is far more effective than the usual cyber crime, maritime hostilities or Internet information harvesting. 

Western companies like Tesla need to pay a price for all this too. 

There has to be a response for the cost and suffering inflicted on us. 

 

 

 

[Fuzzar 1,702]

"Millions have had this virus because at the rate of infection and time it arrived here that has to be the case."

A thought provoking post Ramrod.

Re the above, I'd be interested to know how many of us think they may have or have had something resembling the symptoms? 

At the beginning of February I definitely had a dry cough for a few days, no other symptoms. My wife, normally robust, had flu like symptoms and was laid up for a couple of days - she didn't take her temperature, but definitely felt as if she had one. She also had the cough. This was exactly 3 weeks before the earliest recorded transmission within the UK (28th Feb). 

I'm with the Oxford Professor's study referenced in the FT - a high percentage of people may have already been exposed to this in the UK.

[dylanisabaddog 4,871]

Is it possible it was just another winter virus?

The statistics for Norfolk suggest that the virus arrived here in a big way in the last 2 weekends, probably from people visiting from London. Early on, the hospital at King's Lynn was more affected than Norwich and I assume that covers the North Norfolk coast. 

The virus is so virulent that it seems unlikely it was here before then, otherwise our figures would be way higher than they are now. 

Edited March 28, 2020 by dylanisabaddog

[Van wink 2,994]

56 minutes ago, Fuzzar said:

"Millions have had this virus because at the rate of infection and time it arrived here that has to be the case."

A thought provoking post Ramrod.

Re the above, I'd be interested to know how many of us think they may have or have had something resembling the symptoms? 

At the beginning of February I definitely had a dry cough for a few days, no other symptoms. My wife, normally robust, had flu like symptoms and was laid up for a couple of days - she didn't take her temperature, but definitely felt as if she had one. She also had the cough. This was exactly 3 weeks before the earliest recorded transmission within the UK (28th Feb). 

I'm with the Oxford Professor's study referenced in the FT - a high percentage of people may have already been exposed to this in the UK.

Does your wife know that you normally call her Robust?

[Fuzzar 1,702]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Does your wife know that you normally call her Robust?

I've called her worse. 

[Indy 3,283]

1 hour ago, Fuzzar said:

I've called her worse. 

Ro Bust, sounds a little naughty!

[Indy 3,283]

As for numbers confirmed, against the numbers testedappears very low! About 15%, watching how mild some people have this, knowing how easy it’s spreading why do we not think the Oxford model is potentially more accurate, we went two weeks after massive mid term break holidays where large numbers of people came back from mixing on ski slopes, two people I came into contact with late February, attended and FPSO conference in London where large number of Korean and Chinese delegates were rolling out future projects to lots of vendors. Not to mention all those millions travelling between countries through hubs like Schipol. 
Makes you think before we knew of this virus how many people who passed away with underlying issues were just winter statistics?

We need mass testing and fast to really understand what we really have.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Indy

[Indy 3,283]

Last does anyone know if the current testing confirms if that person has had the virus and got better or just tests for active case?

[FenwayFrank 2,457]

1 minute ago, Indy said:

Last does anyone know if the current testing confirms if that person has had the virus and got better or just tests for active case?

I believe there will be a test for both options

[Pockthorpe 528]

I see Richard Horton , editor of the Lancet , had a lot to say for himself on Question Time . That it’s a national scandal ....we shouldn’t be in this situation.......it was clear what was coming in January and we wasted February.......

Not what he was saying back then .  Here’s a tweet from him 24/1/20 07.18

”A call for caution please . Media are escalating anxiety by talking if a “killer virus “+ “growing fears” . In truth , from what we currently know , 2019-nCov has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity . There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language “

Wow . People like him make me so f****** angry . At this moment , when people are ill and dying and NHS staff like my son are working against this , him and his ilk are totally f****** useless bits of kit . 
 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Pockthorpe

[Indy 3,283]

9 minutes ago, FenwayFrank said:

I believe there will be a test for both options

I know that, so the ongoing test only tests for current virus, not if they’ve had it, which is what I thought, so only 15% testing positive seams low if Boris and his two side kicks all caught it so quick being so close to each other, you’d think those tested positive would be much higher in %?

Edited March 28, 2020 by Indy

[Indy 3,283]

6 minutes ago, Pockthorpe said:

I see Richard Horton , editor of the Lancet , had a lot to say for himself on Question Time . That it’s a national scandal ....we shouldn’t be in this situation.......it was clear what was coming in January and we wasted February.......

 Here’s a tweet from him 24/1/20 07.18

”A call for caution please . Media are escalating anxiety by talking if a “killer virus “+ “growing fears” . In truth , from what we currently know , 2019-nCov has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity . There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language “

Wow . People like him make me so f****** angry . At this moment , when people are ill and dying and NHS staff like my son are working against this , him and his ilk are totally f****** useless bits of kit . 
 

While agree with they way it was said is very wrong, I agree with his sentiments, we do need to stop sensationalising especially in the media, this is what causes mass panic buying and all that’s brings out the worst in people.

A sense of urgency in helping each other through a very dangerous time for a lot people, those in the front line need our support and encouragement.

Edited March 28, 2020 by Indy

[Pockthorpe 528]

 

10 minutes ago, Indy said:

While agree with they way it was said is very wrong, I agree with his sentiments, we do need to stop sensationalising especially in the media, this is what causes mass panic buying and all that’s brings out the worst in people.

A sense of urgency in helping each other through a very dangerous time for a lot people, those in the front line need our support and encouragement.

Indy , I don’t think you got the point I was trying to make about Richard Horton and his kind . 

Edited March 28, 2020 by Pockthorpe

[ricardo 7,347]

12 minutes ago, Pockthorpe said:

I see Richard Horton , editor of the Lancet , had a lot to say for himself on Question Time . That it’s a national scandal ....we shouldn’t be in this situation.......it was clear what was coming in January and we wasted February.......

 Here’s a tweet from him 24/1/20 07.18

”A call for caution please . Media are escalating anxiety by talking if a “killer virus “+ “growing fears” . In truth , from what we currently know , 2019-nCov has moderate transmissibility and relatively low pathogenicity . There is no reason to foster panic with exaggerated language “

Wow . People like him make me so f****** angry . At this moment , when people are ill and dying and NHS staff like my son are working against this , him and his ilk are totally f****** useless bits of kit . 
 

There has been a lot of revisionism. The WHO were criticising countries who began to close their borders and stop flights. This was as early as Feb 4th.

[Pockthorpe 528]

7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

There has been a lot of revisionism. The WHO were criticising countries who began to close their borders and stop flights. This was as early as Feb 4th.

When it’s the WHO , that’s fine , they’re learning all the way along with this novel virus . But when it’s someone just blowing their own trumpet and saying it was all obvious back in January, when at the time he was saying different !! That’s what gets my goat !!

Edited March 28, 2020 by Pockthorpe