Corona Virus main thread

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,773]

1 hour ago, Badger said:

This seems a bit inconsistent if you don't mind me saying so - WWAAFTM. You don't think that they are doing a bit job and then point out three serious mistakes!

I actually thought that myself after I finished the post!

Maybe I should have started the post with 'I don't want to be too critical', or 'I know it's an impossible job'. 

They've done some things right and some things wrong. I think they're doing the right thing now but they should have been stronger sooner if they were serious about getting on top of it.

[T 190]

I understand the instinct to blame but I don’t think it is helpful in these unprecedented times. There are no easy right answers and it is always easier to criticise from the sidelines as opposed to making decisions in a new and fast changing situation. If you do want to blame then UK society and human nature s part of the problem. 

[Essjayess 307]

2 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

How is an approach not a strategy? If you mean did the official government advice/plan never use the phrase 'herd immunity' then you might be right but the government's advisers said out loud that was what it was. Vallance on March 13:

'Our aim is to try to reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to the disease and we reduce the transmission.'

Yes and factually, with no vaccine  for at least a year, maybe 2 or more even, herd immunity is still one of only two true options available in western nations. One is the way originally described above and the other is total lockdown...until such time as a vaccine is found and produced. No nation on Earth...not even China..has, as yet , proven that a nation can exit from lockdown and  keep new cases of infections down to an acceptable limit. So,  while many have made the words herd immunity as dirty it still holds true that any nation needs 70 or 80%  of its population   immune to gain the upper hand on this virus..Even then...in that year or two...the virus could mutate into something worse...or mild.

[ron obvious 1,495]

2 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Yes and factually, with no vaccine  for at least a year, maybe 2 or more even, herd immunity is still one of only two true options available in western nations. One is the way originally described above and the other is total lockdown...until such time as a vaccine is found and produced. No nation on Earth...not even China..has, as yet , proven that a nation can exit from lockdown and  keep new cases of infections down to an acceptable limit. So,  while many have made the words herd immunity as dirty it still holds true that any nation needs 70 or 80%  of its population   immune to gain the upper hand on this virus..Even then...in that year or two...the virus could mutate into something worse...or mild.

Herd immunity will occur. Nature doesn't give a flying fart about our sensibilities, or anthropocentric ideas about justice.

 

[Disco Dales Jockstrap 1,891]

2 hours ago, Badger said:

This is what he actually said.

" The UK's Chief Scientific Adviser has said a degree of herd immunity will help the UK population as Covid-19 spreads. Sir Patrick Vallance acknowledged there are fears that clamping down too hard on the spread of the virus through tight social distancing measures could see it return in the future. 

He said the aim is to "reduce the peak, broaden the peak, not suppress it completely; also, because the vast majority of people get a mild illness, to build up some kind of herd immunity so more people are immune to this disease and we reduce the transmission".In Sir Patrick's opinion, almost two thirds of Britain's population would need to contract coronavirus in order for herd immunity to stave off the disease in future. Otherwise, he says, this outbreak could become an annual plague on our communities."

This was the scientific advice given by the expert that the govt was listening to - he was at the briefing with Johnson. Were they following this advice?

Thank you Badger.

I'm aware of what was said as I watched it at the time; I'm not sure what point you are trying to make though?

They thought that distancing might not sort the problem long term? Fair enough - still applies. We won't know either way for a while. Winter will be the key.

That they can't 'suppress the peak' completely? Indeed. That would appear to be impossible whatever you do, short of flame throwing whole towns.

That the outbreak could become an annual issue like flu? It probably will unfortunately.

And yes the government appear to have been listening to their scientific advisers - as well they should.

OTBC

[Barbe bleu 809]

1 hour ago, Badger said:

? I don't think that I was being rude? Sorry if I have offended you, but I'm not sure how?

God no, you werent being remotely rude.   

I was making the point that putting "this isnt party political" in bold before a sentence that could be construed as party political you have drawn attention to it being so.

[sonyc 5,481]

14 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Yes and factually, with no vaccine  for at least a year, maybe 2 or more even, herd immunity is still one of only two true options available in western nations. One is the way originally described above and the other is total lockdown...until such time as a vaccine is found and produced. No nation on Earth...not even China..has, as yet , proven that a nation can exit from lockdown and  keep new cases of infections down to an acceptable limit. So,  while many have made the words herd immunity as dirty it still holds true that any nation needs 70 or 80%  of its population   immune to gain the upper hand on this virus..Even then...in that year or two...the virus could mutate into something worse...or mild.

I think we may safely assume actual infection rates are many times the reported rates (think about Vo in northern Italy a small village which tested everyone and a huge percentage who had the virus were asymptomatic) ...experts have suggested x10 and x20 but it may be many more. Herd immunity is therefore naturally occurring. The virus will play itself out (probably by the end of April looking at Italy and other graphs where number of new cases graph is easing) as it will find less people to infect... no hosts. It just depends how well we can protect those that need the extra care in ICUs.

Edited March 24, 2020 by sonyc

[kick it off 1,948]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm still hoping that we have a hot spring 

Hot weather not doing them much good in Africa or Australia - that hope is long gone

[Mello Yello 2,273]

Bring back acid rain.....that might see the corona off.....

[Barbe bleu 809]

8 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Hot weather not doing them much good in Africa or Australia - that hope is long gone

Ha! I'm  not prepared to give up the hope just yet.  New zealand has about the same population as Ireland and the distribution is similar but its fairing so much better.   Density of infection in Australia is more favourable than any major european country too.

Unfortunately for them if there is link i'tll start turning against them soon...

Flu and similar disease will naturally wane too so hospitalizations  for this will fall and the lack of co infection in corona patients may be favourable if they are not already highly compromised.

 

No, I'm still going with the sun is our  friend.

 

 

[Badger 2,404]

27 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

God no, you werent being remotely rude.   

I was making the point that putting "this isnt party political" in bold before a sentence that could be construed as party political you have drawn attention to it being so.

Perhaps I wasn't sufficiently clear. I was trying to make a point about political machinery and style of govt/ leader rather than saying any political party would have done it better/ worse.

Corbyn's handling of the anti-semitism issue (amongst others) suggests that he would have been just as inept - possibly more so. However, PM's like Theresa May, Margret Thatcher and Gordon Brown were famously "all over the detail" in a way that Johnson, Cameron and Blair were not. Neither May nor Brown had the personality to make them effective as party leaders in elections, although, tbh I think both would have done a better job that we have seen. Much as I personally disliked Mrs Thatcher, I think her response would have been quicker, clearer and more effective. 

In some ways I fear that modern politics prioritises qualities that make politicians "electable" rather than effective leaders. It also seems to "get rid" of leaders too quickly that have much to offer. Ken Clarke is almost unique in modern politics for having any sort of longevity, but it was the norm in the past. You need ministers who understand how the machinery of govt works - for example, I wish Jeremy Hunt was still health secretary.

[sonyc 5,481]

Assuming we all get through this, I have vowed never to buy any product again from Wetherspoon's, Argos, Sports Direct, WH Smith's...and there will be others. I know we live in a capitalist system but I expect some ethics / morals from the big companies.

There have been so many good stories from companies and private individuals I realise (and won't be forgotten) but it shows you that in the face of a very serious health crisis some companies/CEOs will always put profit before their staff.

Some actions of hurting their already cash-strapped employees by layoffs or asking them to work whilst not bringing in measures to ensure staff can observe social distancing feels to me like echoes from the 19th century (thinking the Welsh coal pits ...though obviously not directly comparable) but just 100 years later and in a modern context. Plus ça change eh.

Edited March 24, 2020 by sonyc

[kick it off 1,948]

5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Assuming we all get through this, I have vowed never to buy any product again from Wetherspoon's, Argos, Sports Direct, WH Smith's...and there will be others. I know we live in a capitalist system but I expect some ethics / morals from the big companies.

Pets at home also created a template letter for employees to try and get keyworker childcare in schools.

[TIL 1010 4,717]

Macron is about to clamp down on excercising in France as some people are abusing the directive by going out for a run but taking all day and going here there and everywhere so a time limit that you are allowed out is going to be imposed. Looks like not just the UK where the idiots are being ridiculous and failing to grasp the seriousness of it all.

[Indy 3,283]

3 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Pets at home also created a template letter for employees to try and get keyworker childcare in schools.

To be fair to pet shops there are huge numbers of pets from exotic snakes to rabbits which need to be fed, so specialist pet shops need to be supplying food and supplies, home delivery a option possibly.

[Indy 3,283]

1 minute ago, TIL 1010 said:

Macron is about to clamp down on excercising in France as some people are abusing the directive by going out for a run but taking all day and going here there and everywhere so a time limit that you are allowed out is going to be imposed. Looks like not just the UK where the idiots are being ridiculous and failing to grasp the seriousness of it all.

The wife’s taking our dog out in the morning and I’m walking him in evenings so both get out for an hour, but keeping well away round open fields.

Not sure if we’re allowed to drive the mile or so to the beach and walk the dog there, wish they’d be clear today.

[Essjayess 307]

1 hour ago, ron obvious said:

Herd immunity will occur. Nature doesn't give a flying fart about our sensibilities, or anthropocentric ideas about justice.

 

Thx ron for seeing what will happen, as i said in another post, Coronavirus will happily by itself do herd immunity, whether Boris and his boffins had did it one way or rest of the world another way...it cares nowt for whatever  nations do and its got a good year or two to do its thing before any vaccine is produced.

[Mello Yello 2,273]

2 minutes ago, Indy said:

To be fair to pet shops there are huge numbers of pets from exotic snakes to rabbits which need to be fed, so specialist pet shops need to be supplying food and supplies, home delivery a option possibly.

Any pangolins or bats?......They're quite a delicacy in the Far East.... 

[Van wink 2,994]

5 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

Macron is about to clamp down on excercising in France as some people are abusing the directive by going out for a run but taking all day and going here there and everywhere so a time limit that you are allowed out is going to be imposed. Looks like not just the UK where the idiots are being ridiculous and failing to grasp the seriousness of it all.

Being out on your own or with one other member of your household in a rural area, where if you do see someone you keep to 2 meters separation really isn't a problem, even if you are walking all day. It seems that a lot of the problems now are focussed in urban areas where separation isn't maintained and if more stringent measures come in they should be focussed there.

[benchwarmer 624]

I took my permitted daily exercise this morning by walking to Whitlingham and back (about 4 miles).  Hardly anyone around when I arrived, a few more as I was coming home.  Strange behaviour by one or two who actually crossed the road when they saw me coming.  Not sure if it had anything to do with covid though!  

I  fear an outbreak of the virtue-signalling virus . . .

 

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by benchwarmer

[Van wink 2,994]

2 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

Any pangolins or bats?......They're quite a delicacy in the Far East.... 

I enjoy a good beaver

[Mello Yello 2,273]

Just now, Van wink said:

I enjoy a good beaver

Dam....beat me to it.....

[TIL 1010 4,717]

2 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

Dam....beat me to it.....

Are there many around Gnawich then ?

[Mello Yello 2,273]

2 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

I took my permitted daily exercise this morning by walking to Whitlingham and back (about 4 miles).  Hardly anyone around when I arrived, a few more as I was coming home.  Strange behaviour by one or two who actually crossed the road when they saw me coming.  Not sure if it had anything to do with the virus though!  

Were you dressed like this?......

[kick it off 1,948]

India gone full lockdown with people not allowed out under any circumstance. Crazy times.

 

89 new deaths in the uk today... very sad and doesn’t look promising for the curve being flattened any time soon

[Peanuts 150]

8 minutes ago, Indy said:

The wife’s taking our dog out in the morning and I’m walking him in evenings so both get out for an hour, but keeping well away round open fields.

Not sure if we’re allowed to drive the mile or so to the beach and walk the dog there, wish they’d be clear today.

I think people can use their common sense. The point is to cut out any social contact so as to stop the disease spreading between households. If you live in the country and walk your dog in fields or along empty roads then it doesn't really matter how often or how long for. Obviously people living in cities are much more at risk of coming into contact with each other when out walking/running etc hence the restriction to once a day.

I read Gove said earlier that the police weren't likely to be stopping people in cars and asking them where they are going. I expect they will be looking at dispersing any gatherings and keeping an eye on supermarkets or city centres where people may congregate.

 

[kick it off 1,948]

19 minutes ago, Indy said:

To be fair to pet shops there are huge numbers of pets from exotic snakes to rabbits which need to be fed, so specialist pet shops need to be supplying food and supplies, home delivery a option possibly.

Agreed but why on earth should I put my daughter at risk so I can look after their kids? so they can ensure the nation’s hamsters have enough chew toys? No issue with NHS etc but pet store workers? Don’t disagree with them staying open but they are not a critical industry and could operate a skeleton staff, or employ temps whilst those with childcare issues are furloughed.

Edited March 24, 2020 by kick it off

[benchwarmer 624]

Apparently police in Cambridgeshire have arrested two drivers who were meeting up to install a stereo in one of the cars.  Not essential work that's for sure, but seems a bit OTT.  Sounds like there was more to it than that.  These measures are still advisory so far as I know, so police have no powers to enforce.  But it shows what could happen if they did.

 

 

Edited March 24, 2020 by benchwarmer

[FenwayFrank 2,448]

9 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

Were you dressed like this?......

Out of reactions, have this instead 😂 

[Van wink 2,994]

8 minutes ago, kick it off said:

India gone full lockdown with people not allowed out under any circumstance. Crazy times.

 

89 new deaths in the uk today... very sad and doesn’t look promising for the curve being flattened any time soon

It will only flatten when the incubation period following this current lockdown has passed, I dont think anything done before will have made that much difference.