Corona Virus main thread

[Molly Windley 76]

An interesting piece in The Washington Post ( not behind paywall)

Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially and how to "flatten the curve"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Molly Windley

[sonyc 5,509]

1 minute ago, Molly Windley said:

An interesting piece in The Washington Post ( not behind paywall)

Why outbreaks like coronavirus spread exponentially and how to "flatten the curve"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

 

Your link doesn't work Molly. But it is a very good analysis (it's available on Twitter too freely)

[Hansterbubble 55]

It worked for me. I just clicked the browse for free option.

[ricardo 7,381]

2 minutes ago, Bill said:

Rightly as you say, it is down to the individual as your condition has dictated The information is out there - and is fairly easily understodd.

The problems with folk not wanting to take responsibilty or rrcognise that when stuff like this happens cooperative action is far better than selfish acts.

That is not contradictory either. the best time to find a life jacket and understand what the procedure is should be before the boat hits the iceberg. That way you are not trampling over everybody in a mad rush.

If food were to become so scarce then a few extra bags of dried pasta or rice is not going to be of any use. No more than taking slow steps climbing up to the gallows.

So maybe a better idea would be to inform yourself and fully recognise where your 'place' is. I don't need unnecessary 'supplies' squirreled away in my cupboards. That is not being over cautious. That is taken resources away from those who will really need those. And common sense should tell you that if this is not dealt with then ultimately we all suffer. Irrespective of what we have hoarded.

This is true, but everyone has had plenty of time to ensure they have enough in the cupboard for two or three weeks should the SHTF. I have gradually been doing that over the previous 5 weeks. Life jackets should already have been in place.

[Bill 1,788]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

This is true, but everyone has had plenty of time to ensure they have enough in the cupboard for two or three weeks should the SHTF. I have gradually been doing that over the previous 5 weeks. Life jackets should already have been in place.

don't forget the hamrmonica

can't have to bobbing about in a life boat with a tune or two

[ricardo 7,381]

2 minutes ago, Bill said:

don't forget the hamrmonica

can't have to bobbing about in a life boat with a tune or two

I may need a solar re charger for the Ipod🎶🌞

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

We have done the same Ricardo. We could isolate for a lengthy period. If we run out of milk substitute then we drink water.

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I may need a solar re charger for the Ipod🎶🌞

Some of us are in the lifeboat already 😉

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Exactly, why people need to be sheep is beyond me, if you’re at risk, self isolate! It’s a no brainer, why do you need to have martial rule when it’s not needed.

Don't be ridiculous. It isn't martial rule.We all need to be doing the same thing. We can't have some doing one thing and others paying no attention. And until things are restricted then it is a lottery. every hospital, airport, ferry terminal should be following the same procedure. But they are not.

[ricardo 7,381]

"Countries must test. They can't fight this blindly. They need to find cases and isolate them. So my message to the Health Ministers today was to invest in testing. They must be able to test all suspected cases. We advise countries to stick to testing and continue with containment strategies, because we believe this virus is controllable if the right measures are taken." Dr. Tedros Adhanom, Director of WHO. Source: WHO daily media briefing on COVID-19 (LIVE)

 

took'em long enough but finally sound advice.

[Indy 3,297]

13 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Exactly, why people need to be sheep is beyond me, if you’re at risk, self isolate! It’s a no brainer, why do you need to have martial rule when it’s not needed.

Don't be ridiculous. It isn't martial rule.We all need to be doing the same thing. We can't have some doing one thing and others paying no attention. And until things are restricted then it is a lottery. every hospital, airport, ferry terminal should be following the same procedure. But they are not.

Nope some of us need to work, some are self employed, we can’t all stop or you won’t have power, petrol, food, tv, media, health service, fire, refuse collection etc.

Just as I said everyone needs to be careful, we don’t need the Italian draconian response.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Indy

[Barbe bleu 822]

2 hours ago, Bill said:

That does not take into account their health at the time.

A better analysis would be that of existing health conditions.

Yes, the older you get the more likely you are to have those health conditions, but the risk relates to those conditions rather than just age itself.

I agree with most of this but as much as we might not like to think about it the immune system ages too. The bit that ages most is its ability to cope with novel pathogens like this one

We can test for blood pressure etc but the only way to test your adaptive immune system is to expose it, which might be a bad idea if it turns out to be a bit dodgy.

So whilst it is clear that other conditions are likely hugely important the truth is that a fit and active 70 plus year old is still unlikely to have an immune system as effective against newly emergent  disease as that of an average 30- 40 year old. 

I am sure that there are exceptions and there might be clean living 85 year olds with the immune system of a 25 year old but they'd be crazy to test the theory. 

[jaberry2 550]

Any of you guys based in Cromer? Im meant to be heading up for a week away up there next week, but wondering whether things are open or not? Pubs mainly :)

[Ian 1,129]

27 minutes ago, ricardo said:

"Countries must test. They can't fight this blindly. They need to find cases and isolate them. So my message to the Health Ministers today was to invest in testing. They must be able to test all suspected cases. We advise countries to stick to testing and continue with containment strategies, because we believe this virus is controllable if the right measures are taken." Dr. Tedros Adhanom, Director of WHO. Source: WHO daily media briefing on COVID-19 (LIVE)

 

took'em long enough but finally sound advice.

Of course, this would be the ideal scenario, but is it really feasible to test every suspected case? Can tests be manufactured quickly enough? What would be the labour and financial burden of processing all these tests?

What if somebody tests negative, but contracts it shortly after? Surely the money is better spent on critical care than what would effectively be a pointless statistic now the virus cannot be contained?

[Ramrod 258]

3 hours ago, Icecream Snow said:

But so far, the biggest indicator of death is age. Various graphs and charts have been produced but all indicate the risk of death is dramatically higher in the 70+ demographic.

I agree. But Nick Hancock and others, especially certain media, gave a very poor briefing on this yesterday. Since then the government has improved its message. 

So far the messages from government have confused and confounded. Today the advice to over 70s was much more practical and liable to be followed. 

It was the same with advice from Dr. Hilary Jones today which was excellent. Of course you can go out for a walk, just avoid unnecessary contact or groups. Do not take Ibruprofen etc. 

We are a country which will respond to sensible requests. 

[Pockthorpe 531]

Thought it really interesting from this afternoon’s briefing was that a real game changer in knowing the best way to handle this crisis , would be the development of a test that can tell if you’ve had COVID -19 . Not just if you’ve got it . They’re still in the dark about how many people have had it without any symptoms . Sounds like one could be forthcoming soon .
A bit of good news would be very good for morale ! 

Edited March 16, 2020 by Pockthorpe

[Ramrod 258]

This whole event is long haul, liable to return or mutate. We need, therefore to think long term. 

[Indy 3,297]

3 minutes ago, Ramrod said:

I agree. But Nick Hancock and others, especially certain media, gave a very poor briefing on this yesterday. Since then the government has improved its message. 

So far the messages from government have confused and confounded. Today the advice to over 70s was much more practical and liable to be followed. 

It was the same with advice from Dr. Hilary Jones today which was excellent. Of course you can go out for a walk, just avoid unnecessary contact or groups. Do not take Ibruprofen etc. 

We are a country which will respond to sensible requests. 

There’s a key to self isolation and that’s no contact while you are out, wash thoroughly when back in a safe environment and minimise the risk. The higher the risk the more control measures you must take, why people are complaining about the government is beyond me. I’m not Boris lover pretty much the opposite, but he’s gone about this very well till now in my opinion.

People forget just how we need to keep to normality and keep making money to fund this crises, to help make products for the nhs to keep moving forwards.

Most of us will pretty much self isolate when we need to, hopefully as we do others will do our jobs till we can come back, then the next wave and next wave. Until a vaccine is widely available this will be around which could be a year plus, we must go about our business as best we can or the world will become a ******** place very quick. Imagine massive inflation, unemployment and depression......not being able to pay your bills because the government’s are bankrupt! Not likely to happen, we’ll just think at present up to 2 million jobs are at risk from the downturn in aviation, and it’s support services.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Nope some of us need to work, some are self employed, we can’t all stop or you won’t have power, petrol, food, tv, media, health service, fire, refuse collection etc.

Just as I said everyone needs to be careful, we don’t need the Italian draconian response.

People are still working in those countries worst affected. And the self employed are one of the reasons why the Government has to try and stop the spread. They aren't even trying. No testing. My Grandson's girlfriend is a nurse at the main Hospital and the only protection they have is washing their hands. No-one staff member is being tested because they can't afford to lose any staff. The NHS is a Government department and they are leaving it to goodwill of the individual.

[JF 694]

Anyone who is on twitter look at the times science person Tom whipple @whippletom absolutely staggering tweets in the last hour about what we’re up against, a few are..
 

The team whose modelling estimates advised Cobra are presenting their modelling. They modelled controlled spread and realised 250,000 would die. Now advise stronger intervention to suppress - but no idea how long it will need to be in place. #coronavirusuk

"We will be in quite different world for year or more"

Neil Ferguson - Imperial.

There is no end to major measures until we get vaccine.

Neil Ferguson:

"The only exit strategy is really vaccination or other forms of innovative technology."

We are going to be in lockdown for quite some time.

Edited March 16, 2020 by JF

[Van wink 2,994]

46 minutes ago, Pockthorpe said:

Thought it really interesting from this afternoon’s briefing was that a real game changer in knowing the best way to handle this crisis , would be the development of a test that can tell if you’ve had COVID -19 . Not just if you’ve got it . They’re still in the dark about how many people have had it without any symptoms . Sounds like one could be forthcoming soon .
A bit of good news would be very good for morale ! 

Yes that was interesting, we need all the info we can get about the virus, nobody has a clue how many of us already have immunity from having had an asymptomatic or very mild infection. This test would provide another piece of the jigsaw and from what I gather its well on the way to being rolled out and developed by a company in the UK.

[Indy 3,297]

5 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Nope some of us need to work, some are self employed, we can’t all stop or you won’t have power, petrol, food, tv, media, health service, fire, refuse collection etc.

Just as I said everyone needs to be careful, we don’t need the Italian draconian response.

People are still working in those countries worst affected. And the self employed are one of the reasons why the Government has to try and stop the spread. They aren't even trying. No testing. My Grandson's girlfriend is a nurse at the main Hospital and the only protection they have is washing their hands. No-one staff member is being tested because they can't afford to lose any staff. The NHS is a Government department and they are leaving it to goodwill of the individual.

What do you want? Italy have massive death rates, but no one has mentioned that families in Italy tend have multi generation live in large dwellings together, each country has different way of life, so each governments have acted differently, we’re luckier here as we tend to be isolated from our parents our siblings.

Do you know how much it would cost and how many times would you test someone who has been tested but negative? People need to step up and do the right thing for each of us, if you’re 75 + suffer with a dangerous issue which puts you at a high risk, then you need to be doubly careful to say a healthy 40 year old doing his job.

Im lost to what you’re complaining about, what would you like to see Keelan?

[Bill 1,788]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

"Countries must test. They can't fight this blindly. They need to find cases and isolate them. So my message to the Health Ministers today was to invest in testing. They must be able to test all suspected cases. We advise countries to stick to testing and continue with containment strategies, because we believe this virus is controllable if the right measures are taken." Dr. Tedros Adhanom, Director of WHO. Source: WHO daily media briefing on COVID-19 (LIVE)

 

took'em long enough but finally sound advice.

The WHO are saying that they learnt their lessons from the SARS out break and they won't get fooled again. Older folk are asking if it is my generation at risk and it is pretty much so as ythe kids are alright. Especially happy Jack who will not now 'transgender' and confirmrf it by shouting Im' a boy - and there's no substitute for that...says Mr Townsend who when asked about certain photos on his laptop said 'I can't explain'.

[ricardo 7,381]

11 minutes ago, Bill said:

.says Mr Townsend who when asked about certain photos on his laptop said 'I can't explain'.

Were there any pictures of Lily😉

[Bill 1,788]

5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Were there any pictures of Lily😉

you better, you bet there were 😁

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,186]

7 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Were there any pictures of Lily😉

No

There's one of Baba O'Riley, though 

Edited March 16, 2020 by How I Wrote Elastic Man
Spelling

[Bill 1,788]

1 minute ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

No

There's one of Baba O'Reily, though 

who are  you ?

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,186]

2 minutes ago, Bill said:

who are  you ?

Tommy Walker 

[Bill 1,788]

1 minute ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Tommy Walker ah

aha, the pinball wizard

unlike you mate

I can see for miles and miles.....and miles

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

Won't get fooled again