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9 hours ago, CDMullins said:

Couple of points;

If we did 'Change tactics in the second half' then its the first time we've done it in circa 30 games.

I'd also argue, we didnt change tactics at all, just shape - our play didnt get any faster, we didnt play more direct, nothing really changed other than Drmic stood next to Teemu.

If that was Plan B then I assume throwing Idah on was another tactic and Plan C?

It sounds like unless we resort to lumping it long to a big un up front you are going to see how we play as plan A?

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The coach and his staff must laugh themselves silly when they see a game translated into this sort of wordy, over-thought analysis, It's too clever by half. 

The half time change at Bramall Lane came about because one of our youngsters had ran his legs off for 120 minutes at Tottenham, and had reached the point where he had nothing left in his legs. No doubt he will get a rest for a game or two and come back recovered, stronger for the final run-in. The tactical re-think in the original article exists only in the mind of a graduate in front of a PC, with instructions ti write 500 words of tactical analysis. The real game is about far simpler principles. 

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1 hour ago, Pugin said:

The coach and his staff must laugh themselves silly when they see a game translated into this sort of wordy, over-thought analysis, It's too clever by half. 

The half time change at Bramall Lane came about because one of our youngsters had ran his legs off for 120 minutes at Tottenham, and had reached the point where he had nothing left in his legs. No doubt he will get a rest for a game or two and come back recovered, stronger for the final run-in. The tactical re-think in the original article exists only in the mind of a graduate in front of a PC, with instructions ti write 500 words of tactical analysis. The real game is about far simpler principles. 

Exactly!!!!!!!!!

It doesn't matter what your tactics are - if Teemu Pukki lashes the ball against the post from four yards out it really doesn't matter whether you're playing with a high press/low block/inverted wingers/false 9 etc, etc - you won't win many games. 

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Posted (edited)

When you pit "just not good enough" against a detailed analysis backed by stats, always pick the analysis backed by stats vs hand-wringing. Even if it's not correct, you have the opportunity to learn something. 

Subjectively Norwich looked more dangerous with Drmic playing alongside Pukki. The second half of Sheffield game quite good for Norwich. Statistics support this firmly. Drmic had the highest xG at 0.9 (fbref) or whopping 1.73 (understat).

Pukki, despite being widely criticized, only had xG of 0.3 (fbref) or 0.6 (understat). His underperformance is still probably within reasonable range compared to "dry" periods of other top strikers. It's annoying to see people whine about lack of quality when the problem is mostly lack of chances created. Most chances simply aren't nearly as good as Norwich fans think.

Heck, even Pinkun staff is starting to ignore facts, to the extent they've now stopped counting Pukki's penalty goals (xG 0.76) as "real" goals and forgotten the stolen Tottenham goal, and calling for Pukki to be benched for Drmic (Who has the most chances missed by any player on the team, behind only Byram and Buendia :classic_dry: ). I guess none of us are safe from the effects of frustration. I should probably call them out for this bit of silliness, as they've usually been on the point...if I have the time.

Now the following is based on subjective observations:

Play three CBs at the back when can. I have noticed time and again that Lewis is lacking confidence in going forward when facing pressure. When he loses confidence he no longer can perform even a throw in decisively. He becomes either a wet blanket or shaky. With confidence we have seen what he can do at the other end.

Play two at the front. The opposition have for long been able to calculate how many Pukki runs they can let through without compromising their offence (one or two). Without Buendia they can feel secure from Pukki. With Drmic next to Teemu, they have more to calculate about. Drmic has the xGs of a striker (if not the goals yet), but it was Drmic's header what convinced me. It's not just the header. It's the headache for the opposition.

Start Buendia always.

Duda...I don't have the stats, but I just don't agree with the general sentiment about him. I saw him play 2nd half against Sheffield (missed 1st half) and he was quite good before getting tired towards the end. He has the talent. I don't think he is disinterested, more like confused a bit and has non-chalant air about him. I think he needs to find a way to work with Buendia. But that may take more time than we have at this point. His corner kicks and potential for crosses is what keeps him on my starting squad. Especially with Drmic there.

Tettey is stabilizing force in midfield, but there is a problem with him that is ignored. He takes extremely low chance shots far outside the box, and occasionally spends time to look for that shot. People rate kicks from far way too probable to go in. They make great highlight reel, but are damaging if there are basically any alternatives.

Edited by Upo
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Interesting thoughts Upo - believe me, I'm interested in stats and tactics as much as the next guy, but there is a whole army of people who pay WAY too much attention to them.

Just out of interest - you quote two sources of stats in your post -  fbref and understat. There is a massive - and I mean massive - difference in the XG figures you quote from these two different sources for Pukki and Drmic. Given that there is such a huge disparity in these figures do you really think it is wise to rely on them in any way - they are clearly massively subjective in how you assign XG values which totally undermines the supposed scientific rationale behind them in my eyes. 

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1 hour ago, Upo said:

When you pit "just not good enough" against a detailed analysis backed by stats, always pick the analysis backed by stats vs hand-wringing. Even if it's not correct, you have the opportunity to learn something. 

Subjectively Norwich looked more dangerous with Drmic playing alongside Pukki. The second half of Sheffield game quite good for Norwich. Statistics support this firmly. Drmic had the highest xG at 0.9 (fbref) or whopping 1.73 (understat).

Pukki, despite being widely criticized, only had xG of 0.3 (fbref) or 0.6 (understat). His underperformance is still probably within reasonable range compared to "dry" periods of other top strikers. It's annoying to see people whine about lack of quality when the problem is mostly lack of chances created. Most chances simply aren't nearly as good as Norwich fans think.

 

I can't speak for others - but when I'm talking about us being just the wrong side of the line when it comes to having enough Premier League quality I'm talking just as much about the ability to create chances as I am about the ability to finish those that we do create. 

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