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xG's very close to eachother. Sheffield 1.25, Norwich 1.33. It doesn't really tell about severe underperformance. Both were expected to score about 1 goal. They took their chance and we didn't. We've outperformed recently too. Against Leicester we had xG of 0.6 and they had 1,47. If you don't create opportunities, you can't take them either.

Frankly I think people overrate Norwich's chances and their strength, either because they're fans or because Farkeball looks nice and Norwich likes to keep possession of the ball. People should look at the numbers and they are fairly clear over long term: Norwich is a team that would probably rank higher if it wasn't for the CB injury crisis. But not much higher.

Edit: I should add that I'm a huge fan and like the way they play. But the statistics have shown that it is very easy to become biased. Sometimes even the commentators get caught up with how nice Norwich looks. And very nice it does look when things are working...

Edited by Upo
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Upo,

It is one think liking to keep the ball, it is another to actually do it.

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I'm glad to say I've absolutely no idea what XG is ....and don't think I want to know.

....what I do know is our reluctance to shoot from any sort of distance and our attempting to walk the ball in are two high contributory factors in this.

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6 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

I'm glad to say I've absolutely no idea what XG is ....and don't think I want to know.

....what I do know is our reluctance to shoot from any sort of distance and our attempting to walk the ball in are two high contributory factors in this.

Yes. Pukki is one very one dimensional and frankly teams have worked that out. Plus he's lost his edge. That why we look better with Drmic up front. More physical and a target man poacher.

We need to cross more, shoot more and generally cause more chaos in opposing penalty areas with people in the box.

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No point in having constant postmortems. What's done is done.

I'm sure that the powers that be are as aware as many on here seem to be of the failings in  preparation for this season.

 

Farke was handed a bit of a duff. The players, for the most part did their best.  Most of our defeats were narrow. We had our fair share of bad luck, especially with injuries. We were never quite at the races.

More enlightened planning for next season should begin now. It could well be another good one.

 

I'll hope we hang on to most.

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19 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

I'm glad to say I've absolutely no idea what XG is ....and don't think I want to know.

....what I do know is our reluctance to shoot from any sort of distance and our attempting to walk the ball in are two high contributory factors in this.

There is a connection between xG and reluctance to shoot from "any sort of distance". And that is because of the garbage xG of most shots out of box.

xG = The statistical chance of an attempt to succeed compared to other similar attempts from the same position

Basically, the average number of shots to score is about 10. That means there is 10% chance to score on any given random attempt on average. BUT. Outside the box those chances are 2-4% generally. And within the box it's 15 to 30% generally.

A penalty kick has only xG of .8 (80% chance to succeed)! Which means it is FAR from a done deal. People just think it is. Just like people think that when Pukki gets the ball, he should score. But really the chances Pukki gets are the sort you have to try 3 to 4 times before you succeed. And because he gets like 1 such chance per game, it takes many games before he gets one in.

He scored beautifully against Tottenham earlier, but we got VARed wrongly. But commentators, fans, hell even PinkUn journalists have apparently forgotten this and now are moaning about how Pukki "isn't himself". He needs more chances. Every striker has dry seasons, and the fewer the opportunities, the longer they last!

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I'm actually starting to find us dull to watch because you just know that with all the pretty tippy tappy football it will all break down on the edge of the box. 

It's partly because we are not  good enough and just don't have the ability to cause problems against the better quality defences we are up against. Only 2 goals in open play in the league this year and Norwich 0 becoming a familiar scoreline.

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I didn’t watch today but I’ve seen most of our matches this season and our reluctance to shoot is so frustrating. Even when inside the box and seemingly in decent shooting positions. I’ve not seen many goals scored by teams that don’t shoot! 

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Our formation hasnt worked allseason, so should we try changing it?

Especially as weve hit such a barren spell of goals!

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Our issue is, we don't actively try to score, until its too late.

Even at 1-0/2-0/3-0 down - Wolves prime example. We'll happily play our passing football right the way up the right wing, only to come all the way back to the keeper and up the left wing.

We don't have that explosive pace or desire to beat men, we very rarely break the lines but when we do, we end up turning back and relenting that advantage.

Our No.10 - Whoever that has been as chipped in with 0.

 

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18 minutes ago, Samwam27 said:

Our formation hasnt worked allseason, so should we try changing it?

Especially as weve hit such a barren spell of goals!

We have no out and out wingers, yet we have a formation that seems to accommodate them, the diamond looked good 2nd half yesterday 

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need to try Drmic with Pukki

...3 ways to do it as far as I can see

1) 532

.....Zimmerman..Hanley...Godfrey

Aarons....Tettey....McLean........Lewis

................Buendia(or Duda)....................

...............Pukki......Drmic............

2) Diamond

.......................Tettey......................

......Vrancic(or Buendia)...McLean.........

....................Buendia(orDuda).........

.............Pukki...........Drmic.........

3) Good old fanshioned 442

......Buendia...Tettey....McLean...Cantwell

..............Pukki.......Drmic........

...whats clear is that with a stat like 6 goals in 15 away games, we cant just keep rolling out the same thing game in game out and expect it to be different.

Unfortunately its probably too late as far as away matches go....only 4 left and 3 of them are Arsenal,Chelsea and Man City....

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I'm not an advocate of the long ball game and enjoy our style, especially when we are on top.

However, I think we miss the Zimmermann long diagonal pass at times and when not pressed we tend to hold the ball for long periods without any positive outcome.

I've lost count of the times we are losing a game, win a free kick well within their area and just pass it across the back 4 eventually for our keeper to launch it long under pressure, only for us to lose it again in exactly the same place the free kick was taken. It is extremely frustrating.

There has to be another tactic from those type of free kicks which involve getting it into the opposition's box for a chance on goal, especially when we are chasing the game. That certainly has to be better than playing it back to Timm to launch it forward again.

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