Number of EFL to go to the wall if worst Coronavirus predictions are accurate

[Pugin 601]

If public assembly is restricted, EFL clubs could lose up to 25% of their projected gate receipt sales for 2019/20, assuming ST holders will be entitled to refunds. What happens beyond this season is anyone's guess.

Employment contacts will still have to be honoured, for their duration unless force majeure exemptions can be applied. Most other overheads will continue to accrue, including debt payments.

It only dawned on me this morning that many club owners will have no choice but to liquidate their clubs immediately as they will become unviable overnight. It could be carnage.

 

 

 

[Norfolk Dan 308]

This shows me one thing. How powerful media, news, stories are. In turn the truth of any given situation should be validated on its on merits and from a single point of view and experience. 

That single view point is mine in my case, and yours for yourself. 

The question then is what you decide to build your view point upon. 

I'm waiting just like the flu bug, like SARS, like ebola, I still have no experience of any of them in my 44 years, so ignore the hype as it's for a another reasons of fear and control, and so far they are doing a dam good job of it. Just under 6000 people die each day of booze related deaths, each day, every day, and do we shut down the source? When was the last time you were scared of a pint! 

Hope the people really start to see the madness of our politics sooner rather than when it's too late... 

Yes I'm off to get my tin foil hat on! 

 

[curious yellow 184]

Will you be able to enjoy a pint? 

Bars restaurants and workplaces will close and society will be bought down by a mostly non deadly virus. 

More people die by suicide - media is evil - turn it off and enjoy life. 

[daly 500]

Tell that to the relatives of the 3120 deaths from the virus 

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

20 hours ago, Pugin said:

If public assembly is restricted, EFL clubs could lose up to 25% of their projected gate receipt sales for 2019/20, assuming ST holders will be entitled to refunds. What happens beyond this season is anyone's guess.

Employment contacts will still have to be honoured, for their duration unless force majeure exemptions can be applied. Most other overheads will continue to accrue, including debt payments.

It only dawned on me this morning that many club owners will have no choice but to liquidate their clubs immediately as they will become unviable overnight. It could be carnage.

What a load of alarmist tripe, fearmongering like this belongs in the Daily Express. 

[Nono 19]

34 minutes ago, daly said:

Tell that to the relatives of the 3120 deaths from the virus 

Well done for completely missing his point. 

 

But you did it deliberately. 

[dylanisabaddog 4,877]

Err, it's not scaremongering. It's already happening in Italy. 

You should perhaps bear in mind that the Government is not just concerned about our health. Their worry is the economic consequences of huge numbers of people being off work. The virus is extremely virulent and if it takes hold in this country we have a problem, particularly in London. 

However, not for the first time we are lucky in that we are surrounded by water. It is easier for the UK to restrict travel than the countries in mainland Europe. 

On the plus side, we have Boris to look after us........... 

[Indy 3,286]

46 minutes ago, daly said:

Tell that to the relatives of the 3120 deaths from the virus 

So the average death rate for flu is between 15,000 to 60,000 per year, this years strain is said to be on course to kill 35,000, with vaccines in place, yet in two months of this Coronavirus virus only 3120 have died and no vaccine. The problem you’re facing is the focus on one event could lead to could lead in more deaths from other things as other people are not seen by doctors & hospitals  who will being overwhelmed and focused on controlling this.

Not to mention the impact on finances possibly meaning long term unemployment as business and industry downsize due to restrictions, which in turn lead to potential health & stress issues.

Mass media and the way this has been handled has been poor, the scaremongering is now leading to panic buying, events restricted, calls on isolating communities should there be an outbreak and restricting movement, all total over reaction.

But it’s great for the global media they love it, people love to buy into it too. It’s just a virus which needs a vaccine issued ASAP, fast track it and this will all be dealt with. 

If people can be trusted to do the hygienic things, wash hands etc and if they have any suspected symptoms self isolate, basically what anyone should do with flu then it’s going to be pretty much irrelevant event.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

6 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Err, it's not scaremongering. It's already happening in Italy.

What football clubs have been immediately liquidated in Italy? 

[dylanisabaddog 4,877]

19 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

What football clubs have been immediately liquidated in Italy? 

I think you know full well that I mean football games are already being cancelled in Italy. The original post does seem far fetched but on the other hand those posters saying this is no worse than the flu and all you have to do is wash your hands are living in cloud cuckoo land. It is an airborne virus which is 200 times more virulent than the flu. If anyone has the virus and travels, for example, on the London Underground it will spread incredibly quickly. It only kills a relatively small number of people but the Government will be duty bound to protect those at risk as has happened elsewhere. The risk to the country is therefore predominantly economic and any business that relies on large gatherings of people is at risk. 

[daly 500]

46 minutes ago, Nono said:

Well done for completely missing his point. 

 

But you did it deliberately. 

Did what deliberately  Miss the point that seemingly 6000 die from booze. They have the choice to drink or not. This is not the case with coronavirus we have no control over it

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

9 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I think you know full well that I mean football games are already being cancelled in Italy. The original post does seem far fetched but on the other hand those posters saying this is no worse than the flu and all you have to do is wash your hands are living in cloud cuckoo land. It is an airborne virus which is 200 times more virulent than the flu. If anyone has the virus and travels, for example, on the London Underground it will spread incredibly quickly. It only kills a relatively small number of people but the Government will be duty bound to protect those at risk as has happened elsewhere. The risk to the country is therefore predominantly economic and any business that relies on large gatherings of people is at risk. 

Well I was talking about the original post, in fact I quoted it, clearly. And I haven't said it's no worse than flu, so where are you going with this?

Every football League club is hooked up with broadcast cameras, fans that usually attend will just have to pay PPV to watch the games and the football league will have to put the price of ifollow up in price with the demand.

Behind closed doors = pay per view. 

Edited March 3, 2020 by TeemuVanBasten

[Pugin 601]

The point is Teemu, that over the next couple of months EFL clubs could all take a hit of (plucking a random figure out of the air) £2million. 

We know how close to the financial edge a number of clubs operate, and if they have exhausted all of their lines of credit, or if they are not prepared to take a big hit, then what are their options?

It doesn't take loads of deaths. In fact it doesn't take any deaths at all. It just takes the Department of Health to recommend that public assembly be restricted in order to slow the spread of the virus.

 

 

Quote

 

 

[Upo 91]

22 hours ago, Pugin said:

If public assembly is restricted, EFL clubs could lose up to 25% of their projected gate receipt sales for 2019/20, assuming ST holders will be entitled to refunds. What happens beyond this season is anyone's guess.

Employment contacts will still have to be honoured, for their duration unless force majeure exemptions can be applied. Most other overheads will continue to accrue, including debt payments.

It only dawned on me this morning that many club owners will have no choice but to liquidate their clubs immediately as they will become unviable overnight. It could be carnage.

 

The key concept here is force majeure. I don't know if a major epidemic has ever been applied as force majeure trigger in the courts. It probably qualifies. I think we can quite safely say that we're looking at quite a legal mess. However, with players they'll probably come to some sort of agreement to postpone wages until the situation normalizes. It's in nobody's interest to see clubs fail. Therefore I don't think many clubs will. Norwich City is certainly in a fairly good position.

[dylanisabaddog 4,877]

54 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Well I was talking about the original post, in fact I quoted it, clearly. And I haven't said it's no worse than flu, so where are you going with this?

Every football League club is hooked up with broadcast cameras, fans that usually attend will just have to pay PPV to watch the games and the football league will have to put the price of ifollow up in price with the demand.

Behind closed doors = pay per view. 

No you didn't say that it's no worse than the flu but I specifically referred to posters other than you. One person has even said that we need to get a vaccine available and that will end the problem. That is absolute nonsense. The medical authorities are saying that the earliest a vaccine will be available is next year. 

You may well have a point with pay per view but the sad fact is that smaller clubs will lose out if big games are available at the same time as theirs, which is why we have a broadcast ban at 3.00pm on a Saturday. 

Hopefully our advantage of being an island will help but as I write this I'm listening to Boris Johnson and the medical experts and they seem resigned to this having a significant impact. Usually I can't stand the man but he did at least do a very good job of the press conference. Football wasn't mentioned. 

I'm still going to Tottenham tomorrow 💛💚

Edited March 3, 2020 by dylanisabaddog

[Nuff Said 5,092]

52 minutes ago, Pugin said:

The point is Teemu, that over the next couple of months EFL clubs could all take a hit of (plucking a random figure out of the air) £2million. 

We know how close to the financial edge a number of clubs operate, and if they have exhausted all of their lines of credit, or if they are not prepared to take a big hit, then what are their options?

It doesn't take loads of deaths. In fact it doesn't take any deaths at all. It just takes the Department of Health to recommend that public assembly be restricted in order to slow the spread of the virus.

 

 

 

It’s a big “if” though, isn’t it? We know owners of every club in the PL apart from ours have wealth that they’re prepared to put into their club, the last thing they would want to do now is to let them fold. If they need to put their hands in their pockets, they will.

[ricardo 7,349]

Mist people still don't get what is going on.

It's not the flu, it's not the death rate, it's the 15 percent who need ICU and won't get it.

Edited March 3, 2020 by ricardo

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Should a bad scenario occur then the Government will have to bring in measures. And those won't all have to be medically based.

Financial arrangements will have to be altered, tax bills deferred, sick pay honoured, etc.

That should prevent Football Clubs who are struggling from having to fold because they have little or no income. I would imagine the more powerful clubs will only see a downturn in certain areas such as bars and restaurants. I doubt SKY will demand a refund. And I imagine that we, having such a massive percentage of season ticket holders will be wounded but not badly.

[BroadstairsR 2,138]

"Hopefully our advantage of being an island will help but as I write this I'm listening to Boris Johnson and the medical experts and they seem resigned to this having a significant impact."

Not unless there are more checks at ports of entry than there were when I skipped through Heathrow Airport having come from the Far east on EVA Air (Taiwan) without so much as an attempt at having even my temperature checked. As did the rest, including the Chinese  amongst us.

This thing had already raised it's ugly head by then.

[dylanisabaddog 4,877]

39 minutes ago, BroadstairsR said:

"Hopefully our advantage of being an island will help but as I write this I'm listening to Boris Johnson and the medical experts and they seem resigned to this having a significant impact."

Not unless there are more checks at ports of entry than there were when I skipped through Heathrow Airport having come from the Far east on EVA Air (Taiwan) without so much as an attempt at having even my temperature checked. As did the rest, including the Chinese  amongst us.

This thing had already raised it's ugly head by then.

Oh dear..... 

I spoke to a GP yesterday who said that it was only a matter of time before someone with the virus used the London transport system. At that point it will spread incredibly quickly. It seems that there is a general acceptance that it's going to happen so there's little point in trying to isolate ourselves. 

[ricardo 7,349]

9 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Oh dear..... 

I spoke to a GP yesterday who said that it was only a matter of time before someone with the virus used the London transport system. At that point it will spread incredibly quickly. It seems that there is a general acceptance that it's going to happen so there's little point in trying to isolate ourselves. 

Almost certain that its already circulating. 

Watch the numbers.

[dylanisabaddog 4,877]

27 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Almost certain that its already circulating. 

Watch the numbers.

It can take 14 days to incubate during which time it can be passed on so perhaps you're right. 

Am I the only one who is paranoid enough to think this will be our year in the FA Cup and it will be scrapped/delayed?  I know I should be taking a wider view but I'm 60 now and I've been waiting patiently since I was 8.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

I hope it transpires that this virus came from the pangolin because perhaps then Chinese demand for its meat and scales will fall and it will be saved from extinction. Would be helpful if the next big virus came from the rhino for a similar reason. 

[ricardo 7,349]

2 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

It can take 14 days to incubate during which time it can be passed on so perhaps you're right. 

Am I the only one who is paranoid enough to think this will be our year in the FA Cup and it will be scrapped/delayed?  I know I should be taking a wider view but I'm 60 now and I've been waiting patiently since I was 8.

The authorities continue to downplay the risks for obvious reasons. Personally I think there is an increasing chance that this season might not be completed.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

53 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Oh dear..... 

I spoke to a GP yesterday who said that it was only a matter of time before someone with the virus used the London transport system. 

I'm sure that will already have happened. 

[Kenny Foggo 1,116]

I would imagine that most clubs pay insurance for large scale disruptions, so should be covered. For example, I know that events such as the death of the Queen, which would result in a mourning period & cancellation of all public events, are covered in all major music festival insurance...  

[Kenny Foggo 1,116]

PS Is it not a virus spread in America to discredit Trump? You catch it through drinking corona right?

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

2 minutes ago, Kenny Foggo said:

I would imagine that most clubs pay insurance for large scale disruptions, so should be covered. For example, I know that events such as the death of the Queen, which would result in a mourning period & cancellation of all public events, are covered in all major music festival insurance...  

Makes you happy wonder whether the insurers have insurance though.

Legal and General have £18bn in capital, but they'll have lots of flood related home and insurance claims to contend with, they'll have countless coronavirus related travel insurance claims, and if this virus does take hold then a lot of life insurance claims.

They have money in markets of course but if insurance companies start liquidating their investment portfolios then watch how quickly the value of those holdings crash. 

I could easily see the government being forced into a big bailout situation again. 

[dylanisabaddog 4,877]

1 hour ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Makes you happy wonder whether the insurers have insurance though.

Legal and General have £18bn in capital, but they'll have lots of flood related home and insurance claims to contend with, they'll have countless coronavirus related travel insurance claims, and if this virus does take hold then a lot of life insurance claims.

They have money in markets of course but if insurance companies start liquidating their investment portfolios then watch how quickly the value of those holdings crash. 

I could easily see the government being forced into a big bailout situation again. 

Most employers have no such insurance. The very few that do just cover key employees. Critically, most policies kick in after 13 weeks which is no help in this situation. 

The cost to the country is going to be huge. Most annoying is that Matt Hancock has just taken questions in Parliament and offered no help to people on zero hours contracts who will receive no sick pay. So those people will have to chose between not being able to buy food or carrying on going to work. 

This thread was originally about football but the biggest losers will be cinemas, theatres, restaurants and pubs. They will struggle to survive. 

[dylanisabaddog 4,877]

1 hour ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

I hope it transpires that this virus came from the pangolin because perhaps then Chinese demand for its meat and scales will fall and it will be saved from extinction. Would be helpful if the next big virus came from the rhino for a similar reason. 

This is the second time that the world has been affected by the Chinese and their bizarre attitude to using animal parts for health reasons. Slightly ironic isn't it. They caused this and they are one of the richest countries in the world. I think we need to tell them that enough is enough and next time they have to pay. It would be good if that approach helped the Rhino!