Virus

[Upo 91]

1% mortality rate amounts to roughly 350000 deaths in the UK if 50% get it. I've seen credible estimates that up to 70% will eventually contract the disease.

Just to put things in perspective. The number of projected casualties is 10 times bigger than the number who died during the Blitz. 350000 in UK. With mortality rate of up to 20% amongst the elderly and infirm, and only 0,2% amongst young and working age, we are going to see a noticeable shift in demographics.

The normal policy in most if not all western societies is to contain the reaction of the public (avoid panic), and then use the usual channels - vaccines, public information, health care, selected guarantine, treatment etc - to contain the disease. This almost always works....as long as the disease spreads symptomatically and isn't that easily contracted. And as long as the health care system is not overwhelmed. Influenza, Ebola, SARS, bird flue, the plague etc are examples of such diseases. Ebola contracts easily, but it kills so fast it's not easy to spread.

nCoov is by all accounts a whole new beast compared to what the health system is geared for. Its danger arises from it being relatively mild for most people, but for a select group it causes exceptionally high mortality. It probably spreads asymptomatically, or at the very least the symptoms can be negligible (people have gone to play football with barely mild flu symptoms and later diagnosed, causing massive guarantine measures within their circle of people). It plausibly also spreads after 2 weeks. In various countries flights to infection zones such as Italy are still allowed. People are still guarantined mostly by symptoms - voluntarily.

There is no indication that western democracies, with strong idealism about free movement, individualism and rights of individuals would be more effective than a totalitarian command society which can impose total guarantine for 60+M people overnight, and have the capacity to enforce it. Do we have thousands of surveillance drones ready to be deployed? The problem with totalitarian states is that problems often are hidden and denied. But once they are out in the open, a technologically developed country like China  can move with unprecedented speed. They've got the practice with SARS, bird flu etc. We do not have that experience. I don't want to romaticize China, but by the time we impose "war time" policies on public, it probably is too late.

In short, my best prediction:

Within weeks all sporting events, concerts, public gatherings etc will be banned. Forget about Tokyo Olympics. Football will still be played, but for closed stadiums until a single player gets credibly exposed to the virus (a family member contracts it), all games will be banned until further notice. Next season is in serious danger of getting canceled or postponed in every contact sport or even team sport. 

Clearing things might take years if the vaccines fail to properly work. (E.T.A. 12 months, Israel is trying to shortcut it within 3 months, but mass production will take much longer and I strongly suspect the vaccine won't be effective enough and requires unprecedented guarantine measures.) There are case reports that  people who have contracted the virus have re-contracted it.  (This has yet to be confirmed, but there are many suspicions - or they failed to clear the virus and the virus remains in the body for weeks, even months after recovering until relapse, which may be an even worse scenario. That means that the body either doesn't easily form immunity towards it (noro virus is an example) or the virus mutates so readily that it can escape the body's immune system (common cold).

Implication:

If you're young, your chances are excellent if (or when) you contract it. If you're old or infirm, or long time ex smoker, it is Russian roulette. Chances may decrease if health system gets overwhelmed. Disinfect, wash hands, fanatically, repeatedly, all the time. Avoid public, avoid people, avoid public transportation, movie theaters, gyms, football matches etc etc. Buy enough food to last for a month. Go to shops during quiet hours. The virus dies within 2 hours in dry conditions, which is why it's probably smart to go to shops early. Use mobile pay or some such to pay. Disinfect afterwards. Disinfect. Disinfect. And learn to do it properly. That's what the people in Hong Kong have done and they've avoided major epidemic. They know what to do because of the SARS scare.

Over long term (years to decades) the main effects will be  total realignment of economic practices with strong emphasis of redundance of supply chains meaning lower profits, strong central government, increase in readiness for "black swan events" - at a cost of higher taxes and more stringent laws, more government involvement in basic health care research and drug manufacturing, more government directed economic policies.

And a total overturn of the paradigm of efficiency at all costs in macroeconomics. All of the policy and structural changes that will be imposed will not be for the better. But overall we're going to be better prepared for a future cataclysmic extinction tier event.

Edited March 2, 2020 by Upo

[......and Smith must score. 1,334]

3 hours ago, NFN FC said:

Don't see what all fuss is about. It's not even a particularly fierce virus anyway. Only a death rate of 3%. No need for panic or moving to a remote island

So you're not fussed if you're one of the ones who ends up at the undertakers ?

This is very worrying for a lot of people particularly those with pre-existing vulnerabilities

[Capt. Pants 4,195]

3% of Pinkun posters will go and there will be a few spare seats at next year's AGM because of it.

I jest sorry, but it is deadly serious and highly likely now that it will spread in this country. Luckily there is no evidence the virus will mutate into something more serious. For now.

Sport, relegation and promotion really isn't that important.

 

 

[ricardo 7,345]

I shall be running a raffle for my seat should the worst happen.

Tenner a ticket😉

[ricardo 7,345]

25 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Sport, relegation and promotion really isn't that important.

 

 

Just a bit of advice.

Don't mention that if you go to Liverpool or Leeds.😁

[NFN FC 1,123]

1 hour ago, ......and Smith must score. said:

So you're not fussed if you're one of the ones who ends up at the undertakers ?

This is very worrying for a lot of people particularly those with pre-existing vulnerabilities

I won't be around to be fussed 

[NFN FC 1,123]

 

[daly 500]

4 hours ago, Upo said:

1% mortality rate amounts to roughly 350000 deaths in the UK if 50% get it. I've seen credible estimates that up to 70% will eventually contract the disease.

Just to put things in perspective. The number of projected casualties is 10 times bigger than the number who died during the Blitz. 350000 in UK. With mortality rate of up to 20% amongst the elderly and infirm, and only 0,2% amongst young and working age, we are going to see a noticeable shift in demographics.

The normal policy in most if not all western societies is to contain the reaction of the public (avoid panic), and then use the usual channels - vaccines, public information, health care, selected guarantine, treatment etc - to contain the disease. This almost always works....as long as the disease spreads symptomatically and isn't that easily contracted. And as long as the health care system is not overwhelmed. Influenza, Ebola, SARS, bird flue, the plague etc are examples of such diseases. Ebola contracts easily, but it kills so fast it's not easy to spread.

nCoov is by all accounts a whole new beast compared to what the health system is geared for. Its danger arises from it being relatively mild for most people, but for a select group it causes exceptionally high mortality. It probably spreads asymptomatically, or at the very least the symptoms can be negligible (people have gone to play football with barely mild flu symptoms and later diagnosed, causing massive guarantine measures within their circle of people). It plausibly also spreads after 2 weeks. In various countries flights to infection zones such as Italy are still allowed. People are still guarantined mostly by symptoms - voluntarily.

There is no indication that western democracies, with strong idealism about free movement, individualism and rights of individuals would be more effective than a totalitarian command society which can impose total guarantine for 60+M people overnight, and have the capacity to enforce it. Do we have thousands of surveillance drones ready to be deployed? The problem with totalitarian states is that problems often are hidden and denied. But once they are out in the open, a technologically developed country like China  can move with unprecedented speed. They've got the practice with SARS, bird flu etc. We do not have that experience. I don't want to romaticize China, but by the time we impose "war time" policies on public, it probably is too late.

In short, my best prediction:

Within weeks all sporting events, concerts, public gatherings etc will be banned. Forget about Tokyo Olympics. Football will still be played, but for closed stadiums until a single player gets credibly exposed to the virus (a family member contracts it), all games will be banned until further notice. Next season is in serious danger of getting canceled or postponed in every contact sport or even team sport. 

Clearing things might take years if the vaccines fail to properly work. (E.T.A. 12 months, Israel is trying to shortcut it within 3 months, but mass production will take much longer and I strongly suspect the vaccine won't be effective enough and requires unprecedented guarantine measures.) There are case reports that  people who have contracted the virus have re-contracted it.  (This has yet to be confirmed, but there are many suspicions - or they failed to clear the virus and the virus remains in the body for weeks, even months after recovering until relapse, which may be an even worse scenario. That means that the body either doesn't easily form immunity towards it (noro virus is an example) or the virus mutates so readily that it can escape the body's immune system (common cold).

Implication:

If you're young, your chances are excellent if (or when) you contract it. If you're old or infirm, or long time ex smoker, it is Russian roulette. Chances may decrease if health system gets overwhelmed. Disinfect, wash hands, fanatically, repeatedly, all the time. Avoid public, avoid people, avoid public transportation, movie theaters, gyms, football matches etc etc. Buy enough food to last for a month. Go to shops during quiet hours. The virus dies within 2 hours in dry conditions, which is why it's probably smart to go to shops early. Use mobile pay or some such to pay. Disinfect afterwards. Disinfect. Disinfect. And learn to do it properly. That's what the people in Hong Kong have done and they've avoided major epidemic. They know what to do because of the SARS scare.

Over long term (years to decades) the main effects will be  total realignment of economic practices with strong emphasis of redundance of supply chains meaning lower profits, strong central government, increase in readiness for "black swan events" - at a cost of higher taxes and more stringent laws, more government involvement in basic health care research and drug manufacturing, more government directed economic policies.

And a total overturn of the paradigm of efficiency at all costs in macroeconomics. All of the policy and structural changes that will be imposed will not be for the better. But overall we're going to be better prepared for a future cataclysmic extinction tier event.

Thought this was the start of a Stephen King novel

[ricardo 7,345]

3 hours ago, daly said:

Thought this was the start of a Stephen King novel

If only it was.

[Mello Yello 2,280]

3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

If only it was.

COVID-19 = "Captain Trips".....Just now waiting for Randall Flagg to make an appearance......

[JF 694]

From Twitter 

BREAKING: Until further notice, all matches in the Swiss Super League and Swiss Challenge League are postponed due to the #Coronavirus outbreak.

The earliest possible return for the league will be on April 3rd unless the current government restrictions are extended.

[ricardo 7,345]

9 minutes ago, JF said:

From Twitter 

BREAKING: Until further notice, all matches in the Swiss Super League and Swiss Challenge League are postponed due to the #Coronavirus outbreak.

The earliest possible return for the league will be on April 3rd unless the current government restrictions are extended.

We are not going to complete this season are we.

I have no idea what happens then.

[JF 694]

18 minutes ago, ricardo said:

We are not going to complete this season are we.

I have no idea what happens then.

It’s looking increasingly unlikely that some European leagues won’t finish and the Euros look gone. Hard to tell at the moment what’s going to happen here 

edit: looks like the Swiss clubs were given a behind closed doors option and rejected it

Edited March 2, 2020 by JF

[Upo 91]

Postpone 2020 Olympics and Euros until next year? There is no way they'll cancel them completely yet. If they can't hold them in 2021, then I think Euros will have to be skipped. I don't think they'll postpone 2022 WC. What an absolute mess. Many current top players will have mostly retired or be clearly over the hill in 6 years. Perhaps they should increase the number of European qualifying teams - and maybe qualifiers in other cancelled major tournaments - in the next WC? It would be one hell of a world cup...