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Athletic piece on stats re Buendia

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See: https://theathletic.com/1637086/2020/02/27/daniel-farke-points-per-start-buendia-norwich/?source=ukdailyemail

A modest criticism of Farke using 'points-per-game-started' which, in extremis,would see Lovren favoured over VVD.

Couple of quotes:

Norwich are very much in a relegation scrap right now, and need as much firepower as they can muster. Farke acknowledges Buendia’s creativity in his comments when talking about his number of assists (seven) — but fails to realise how important that level of assist creation is. In recent games, Lukas Rupp has gone on to create 1.1 chances per 90 from the right hand side. Buendia has been averaging more than three times that — 3.4 per 90.

and 

Despite turning the ball over more than any other Norwich City player, Buendia is an elite chance creator and ball progressor for his side. His points-per-start may not get him picked, but his suitability for the role and creative output this season should do, and there’s no doubt that plenty of sides across Europe are thinking the same.

 

I'm agnostic about the use and abuse of stats but the second quote alludes to significant interest in Buendia which bodes well for his potential transfer value should he wish to leave or we seek to sell.

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I don't think that article is fair on Farke at all, I think it's a nonsense criticism more than a modest one.

From his press conference on the 21st...

DF: Emi Buendia is always in my thoughts. Last season we found it quite complicated to win games without him. I know the impact of Buendia. It's a different level now though and Emi is unbelieveably young. He's now playing in the best league in the world. 

I think he was fantastic at the start of the season, then had to wait on the sidelines for a while, but he came back with the perfect reaction. He's finding it quite difficult to come back from his injury, but that happens with every player that young.

DF: If we're honest, against Newcastle Emi wasn't himself. I got the feeling before Liverpool that he wasn't completely 100%. We felt it wasn't the right moment to bring him in against the best defenders in the world. 

DF: It's important to be honest, it's not about statistics, it's about the teams success. It's important we can't forget that Buendia isn't playing at this level like Lionel Messi does for Barcelona. 

At the moment, he has to be 100% to make the difference. No one is more tempted to bring him back in the starting line-up than me, but I also have to protect him and make sure he plays him at his best.

The use of examples the article gives using "Farke's Logic" include playing Lovren over VVD or Barklay over Kante. What?  While I can't see the rest of the article it seems to be built around one quote Farke made in order to create some clickbait?

For what it's worth I actually do think Buendia will start tonight 😀

 

 

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I'm not agnostic about the use of stats. A football team is a balance of individuals and the way they interact with each other to produce the desired results - and individual stats do not show that. The ridiculous nature of stats is that a team can produce fantastic stats as individuals but still be losing every week!

Simply put, if players are not producing the right results as a team, then any one of them can be considered up for being changed - and it doesn't need a huge amount of analysis or stats to see where the problems lie. After all, does a stat exist for petulance or not getting up quick enough after a tackle? I doubt it - and it doesn't end there. Farke said himself about defenders who had been touted to him with brilliant stats - and they were from the likes of Bolton and other relegated clubs.

The use of stats HAS to be balanced against a more holistic approach to football - in other words people using their eyes and brains as well as the dry information seen on a laptop.  Sounds like Daniel is doing this - and that is good to hear.  We all know Emi can be brilliant, but if he can be even better, then that is what all this is about. So trust in Farke - it was he that facilitated Maddison's big rise in one season from young hopeful to a top player - and hopefully he will lead Emi to do that too. 

 

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I would expect Emi to start tonight - be really disappointed if he doesn't.

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We need to win football games and lots of them to stand a chance. He’s by far our most creative player. He simply has to start with Pukki and Cantwell and we need to throw caution to the wind and go for it. At this moment in time we are going down with a whimper. I’d rather we went down from here knowing we’ve thrown the kitchen sink at the opposition. If we get outscored then so be it, but what we’ve been doing lately, no goals from open play in 526 minutes will get us relegated anyway. Let’s see some desire and fight, attack the opposition with all we have and play the football that we know we can

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11 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

I hope he starts but I don't think he will.

Travesty if he doesn’t. Even if there are any issues going surely he’ll be chomping at the bit to make a statement if played. The man is a match winner and a complete waste on the bench.

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Players like Buendia want to take on the world and his wife single handed. He needs to choose his battles and creating space for team mates to receive in space is just as important as a completed dribble. Or put another way, if you were an opposition manager where on the pitch wouldn’t you want Buendia on the ball with time and space. I would like to see him take up Defoe type positions, perhaps Pukki feed him🤞

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I'll let Farke be the judge of whether he should start tonight, but personally I'll be more disappointed if Mario doesn't start, or at least that he gets plenty of minutes from the bench.

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5 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

I'll let Farke be the judge of whether he should start tonight, but personally I'll be more disappointed if Mario doesn't start, or at least that he gets plenty of minutes from the bench.

Big fan of Mario, but Leicester  have pace to give away,Mario doesnt. Very much doubt that he'll  start.

Whatever happens,  I am behind the team 100%. Behind Farke100% and behind Delia and Co 100%.

 

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The point with stats is that you can be bombarded with them, cherry-pick specific ones and come to misleading conclusions - correlation isn’t causation and all that.  It is clear Emi is one of our more creative players but he’s also rather prone to throwing his toys and sitting there or trotting back while play continues around him....I don’t suppose there’s a stat for those moments?!  
What some seem to have forgotten is that he was initially missing because of injury and I think I’m right that he hadn’t been deemed fully fit up until last weekend; whatever, I think we’d have lost by more v Liverpool with a different set-up.  I would probably expect him to start tonight but happy to go with DF.

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I didn’t need any stats at the Wolves game to know we were toothless until Buendia came on and although that was too late, at least he did create some openings for us.

 

I'm amazed Rupp actually created 1.1 chances or whatever. He’s not a bad player to have in the side defensively but going forward I felt he and Duda were basically passengers and you’re not going to get many goals with 2 attacking players who contribute almost nothing.

 

Last Sunday reminded me of football under Hughton with players reluctant to commit themselves forward and too many players treating the ball like a hot potato to be got rid of as quickly as possible 🤨.

 

if left out tonight, my reaction would depend on why, but if he’s fit I think we must play him to have a chance of actually scoring some goals.

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20 minutes ago, Branston Pickle said:

The point with stats is that you can be bombarded with them, cherry-pick specific ones and come to misleading conclusions - correlation isn’t causation and all that.  It is clear Emi is one of our more creative players but he’s also rather prone to throwing his toys and sitting there or trotting back while play continues around him....I don’t suppose there’s a stat for those moments?!  
What some seem to have forgotten is that he was initially missing because of injury and I think I’m right that he hadn’t been deemed fully fit up until last weekend; whatever, I think we’d have lost by more v Liverpool with a different set-up.  I would probably expect him to start tonight but happy to go with DF.

I think the point about cherry picking is actually what the article is picking up on- Farke cherry picking one stat and using that as a reason to not pick him.

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4 minutes ago, king canary said:

I think the point about cherry picking is actually what the article is picking up on- Farke cherry picking one stat and using that as a reason to not pick him.

That is not what Farke has done. Listen to what he says on the match preview - there is much more to it.

Edited by lake district canary
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3 minutes ago, king canary said:

I think the point about cherry picking is actually what the article is picking up on- Farke cherry picking one stat and using that as a reason to not pick him.

It is, but it's unfair because it's not the reason Farke gave, they've only taken one line from Farke - they'e cherry picking themselves then accusing Farke of the same.

Regardless, he should start tonight.

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It's clear and obvious he needs to play every game he is fit, stats or no stats. Mis managed. 

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A few of the comments responding to the article do point out that Farke was talking about more than just that stat, which is probably why he chose to tell the Bolton anecdote in yesterday's press conference. 

Having said that, the Bolton anecdote shows that it was an error by Farke to use an isolated statistic in the first place.

Unless something has happened behind the scenes, I think Farke genuinely wants EB to mature and improve his game. Since his return from injury, he actually hasn't been at his best. He is stroppy and he's trying to do everything himself, which is admirable and shows that he is passionate, but cutting those things out can be hugely beneficial to the team.

The trouble that Farke has is that Emi at 95% is still better than everyone else in the squad - and we need him.

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I’ll stick my neck out and say that Duda’s going to score a beauty tonight in a hard fought 3-2 win⚡

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2 hours ago, lake district canary said:

I'll let Farke be the judge of whether he should start tonight, but personally I'll be more disappointed if Mario doesn't start, or at least that he gets plenty of minutes from the bench.

Do you not want to win anymore ? Leicester have pace everywhere, destroyed against Man U looked good against Preston and Burnley reserves.

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That's why football is so wonderful, & in many ways a metaphor for life itself. We all pick the stats that suit our particular prejudiced predictive models best, & we all think we're right (though some more than others). The reality is it's too complex to be amenable to any sort of logical analysis.

 

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2 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

That's why football is so wonderful, & in many ways a metaphor for life itself. We all pick the stats that suit our particular prejudiced predictive models best, & we all think we're right (though some more than others). The reality is it's too complex to be amenable to any sort of logical analysis.

 

Spot on. 

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2 hours ago, Yellow and Green said:

A few of the comments responding to the article do point out that Farke was talking about more than just that stat, which is probably why he chose to tell the Bolton anecdote in yesterday's press conference. 

Having said that, the Bolton anecdote shows that it was an error by Farke to use an isolated statistic in the first place.

Unless something has happened behind the scenes, I think Farke genuinely wants EB to mature and improve his game. Since his return from injury, he actually hasn't been at his best. He is stroppy and he's trying to do everything himself, which is admirable and shows that he is passionate, but cutting those things out can be hugely beneficial to the team.

The trouble that Farke has is that Emi at 95% is still better than everyone else in the squad - and we need him.

Exactly this.

If you cherry pick a couple of stats to justify the decision, you can expect some scrutiny if those stats don't actually make sense.

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I would be playing him, but I also get Farke's logic on this one. 

 

If he creates 3 chances for us, we're most likely going to waste all 3, if he turns the ball over just the once and the opposition break on us, we're more than likely to concede. If we were more clinical and had a more robust, defensively sound screen behind him you could play him without much risk. As it is it's a gamble every game, you only have to think back to Watford at home to understand why he doesn't start every game for us. 

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I actually wonder if Farke has used three tricky games (liv, ww and lcfc) to man manage Emi and get him in the right frame of mind for the crucial, more winnable games coming up.

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18 minutes ago, Christoph Stiepermann said:

I would be playing him, but I also get Farke's logic on this one. 

 

If he creates 3 chances for us, we're most likely going to waste all 3, if he turns the ball over just the once and the opposition break on us, we're more than likely to concede. If we were more clinical and had a more robust, defensively sound screen behind him you could play him without much risk. As it is it's a gamble every game, you only have to think back to Watford at home to understand why he doesn't start every game for us. 

Agreed. It seems to have been dumbed down a bit to become "Farke shouldn't be using points per game to decide whether to play Emi" but even if we look where that came from it isn't even the case. The only cherry picking I see has come from the Athletic.

"Farke said, as quoted by Paddy Davitt "I am not saying this to accuse him, but it is gameday 26 and he has not scored a goal. He knows that needs to improve. 

"He also needs to make more runs beyond the final man. His points per game in the side is the lowest of all our wingers this season.

"He can get to the level of a top, top player at this level but since his recent injury I watch him every day in training and he is not quite 100%, yet like his best periods this season. No one in this room is a bigger fan of Emi than me. 

"But he is a young player and sometimes I have to protect them."

Thats even without whatever else Farke has said. It's without question that Emi is our best creative outlet but perhaps Farke considers to justify where Emi lacks defensively or with workrate / temperament he needs to be doing more offensively than he has been.

I'm feeling positive tonight, for us and Buendia who will get his first and second goal of the season 😁 here's hoping...

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2 hours ago, Well b back said:

I still wonder if an offer came in in January which we turned down and he is not happy ?.

 

Tough, we hold his contract  and if there was an offer it obv wasn't  good enough. Rather keep the player than take the money, I like it.

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37 minutes ago, Yellow and Green said:

I actually wonder if Farke has used three tricky games (liv, ww and lcfc) to man manage Emi and get him in the right frame of mind for the crucial, more winnable games coming up.

Exactly this, that dawned on me as well after hearing how Farke said he held him back earlier in the season, so there is already some solid reasoning there for this to be this case. Could it be part of Farke’s master plan?

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25 minutes ago, Alex Moss said:

Exactly this, that dawned on me as well after hearing how Farke said he held him back earlier in the season, so there is already some solid reasoning there for this to be this case. Could it be part of Farke’s master plan?

It's a **** masterplan if so.

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