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hogesar

WE SHOULD BE 16TH!!!

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Presumably this just means we’re missing lots of chances we’re expected to score? Which we kind of know anyway.

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17 minutes ago, Clint said:

Presumably this just means we’re missing lots of chances we’re expected to score? Which we kind of know anyway.

Does the table take dubious VAR decisions into account? I haven't looked at it yet... Hmm... Perhaps I should do that? Or perhaps I shouldn't as I MIGHT END UP SHOUTING TOO! 😉

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Just now, hogesar said:

Why are you italicing?

Always have done from day one but it has not worried you before. I always thought posting in capital letters was deemed to be shouting ?

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1 minute ago, TIL 1010 said:

Always have done from day one but it has not worried you before. I always thought posting in capital letters was deemed to be shouting ?

I was excited / exasperated all in one. I wanted other people to know that. 🙂 

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Presumably, that we have not taken our chances goes to a lack of PL quality in the team which goes to lack of investment in the playing squad. But at least we’ve got a cash pile of broadcasting income.

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10 minutes ago, Highland Canary said:

Presumably, that we have not taken our chances goes to a lack of PL quality in the team which goes to lack of investment in the playing squad. But at least we’ve got a cash pile of broadcasting income.

Indeed, the board did not take its chance. 

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**** like this is why lots of people think XG is a useless stat.

XG doesn't show us where we should be or where we deserve to be- it shows us part of the reason why we are where we are.

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31 minutes ago, Highland Canary said:

Presumably, that we have not taken our chances goes to a lack of PL quality in the team which goes to lack of investment in the playing squad. But at least we’ve got a cash pile of broadcasting income.

But wouldn't the flip side of that be a team who don't create many chances in the first place but score a higher % of them? 

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the stat but to me this either suggests that we've been unlucky in-front of goal so far or that where we are weak is with our ability to put away chances this season - for whatever reason.

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1 hour ago, Hillhead said:

But wouldn't the flip side of that be a team who don't create many chances in the first place but score a higher % of them? 

Maybe I'm misunderstanding the stat but to me this either suggests that we've been unlucky in-front of goal so far or that where we are weak is with our ability to put away chances this season - for whatever reason.

Yes, basically.

Newcastle are the opposite in that they seem to concede significantly fewer goals than stats would suggest they should. The question is are they lucky or do they have a very very good keeper?

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...which goes to Newcastle’s relative defensive quality! It’s not that Newcastle are lucky and we’re not, it’s that we lack the relative quality to convert the chances created.

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1 minute ago, Highland Canary said:

...which goes to Newcastle’s relative defensive quality! It’s not that Newcastle are lucky and we’re not, it’s that we lack the relative quality to convert the chances created.

No it doesn't. It shows the opposite outside of the goalkeeper really. If the defense were good they'd not be giving up that many good chances in the first place.

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For me, there have been a lot of games this season where you came away thinking “we should have got more out of that...”. And I think these stats support that to a degree. 
 

I think there are a lot of reasons why - probably for me, top of the list would be a lack of defensive leadership (when we didn’t have Zimbo), a lack of ruthlessness (all over the pitch) , poor finishing by Pukki (by his standards) since he broke his toe, and just plain bad luck.

 

The Prem is a league with few games and narrow margins between victory and defeat, which means with a few breaks, a team that’s pretty **** can be comfortably mid table. Conversely it’s been a very regular comment about us, that we “don’t look like a team at the bottom of the league” although it’s looking very much like that’s where we’ll end up.

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2 hours ago, king canary said:

No it doesn't. It shows the opposite outside of the goalkeeper really. If the defense were good they'd not be giving up that many good chances in the first place.

Yep, an exceptional goalkeeper can make a big difference but otherwise, it points to a poor defence.

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5 hours ago, king canary said:

XG doesn't show us where we should be or where we deserve to be- it shows us part of the reason why we are where we are.

Exactly - a diagnostic tool offering clues and possible solutions to be considered with a whole range of other factors.

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24 minutes ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Poor defending, overly-defensive team selections and poor finishing due to over-reliance on Pukki are the reasons why we are where we are.

I wouldn't agree with overly defensive team selections. Especially not over the course of the season.

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If you are inferior you inevitably defend more. If you defend more the odds are you’ll make more mistakes overall than others who defend less.

In the Premier if you play an open, de-facto attacking style of play, other teams have individual quality that can hurt you.

Football is a low scoring game, so single actions can define whole narratives. 

A single weak link can easily be exploited at the top level. 11 solid players (across all ‘categories’ not just skill or potential) are often deployed, though this costs money. 

You can do a lot of top level things well without tangible reward, whilst relatively small tactical mistakes can be punished, harshly according to a ‘points verdict’.

This ‘luck’  is not quite as random as it might appear. It is exactly what top level coaches are paid to analyse and amortise. 

Parma 

Edited by Parma Ham's gone mouldy
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