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For all those paranoid there'll be a mass exodus in the summer

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Tim Krul:- "My family is really happy, this club is going places and no matter what league we are in next year, we've got an amazing base set by the manager and Stuart Webber, and with the board backing - it's not a lie, it looks great from the outside and even more from the inside."

I remember a while ago Timm Klose had the chance to leave. He and his other half love it here, love being able to get to countless beaches so easily, love Norwich and Norfolk too, previously he'd been at a club in an industrial city. Yes, players could earn more than they do here or go to a club with more success. But would they play as often as here and would they enjoy life as much? I remember a friend being told that if he was prepared to move to/work in London his career would accelerate faster and he could earn more. He and his fiancee were happy here. Sometimes Norfolk and a good income is enough, not everyone is greedy for ££ or what is perceived to be a better/bigger club and they know just because they move on the grass won't necessarily be greener. I remember Wes Hoolahan saying he'd had the chance to move to a bigger club and earn more, but he and his family were settled and enjoyed here. I'm sure he won't be the only player like that

So for those who think/worry there'll be a mass exodus, there won't be one. If we had a s*** coach and played boring hoof it up the pitch football or played Chris Hughton style things could be different. 

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Which is great. But it tends to be the older players getting comfy rather than the young hungry players chasing the top. And, sometimes, this shows on the pitch. Not this season or last to be fair- but we can all remember seasons where teams were a little too comfortable and settled in terms of hunger...

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I think we're more concerned about players like Cantwell, Aarons, Godfrey.  Who are young and at that age it's easy to move location.

 

I am more relaxed because we've signed them all up to long contracts and financially we're solid so have no need to sell.  Therefore any club wanting to prise any of them away will have to make an offer at the top end of what they're worth.  If we end up selling a couple for chunky amounts to top clubs, I can live with that, it will set us up for a few years financially.

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I am not that concerned about any of the players touted with leaving. I think we can find solutions for all of them, if they were to go.

The main one would actually be Pukki as it would be difficult to find another 25 goal striker (for the Championship) without shelling out some significant cash. But I don't think he'll go anyway.

It's funny though, that there are people who have constantly slagged off Cantwell, a few who say Godfrey isn't a good defender etc. etc. yet they start bleating when it's threatened that they may leave in the summer. Appreciate what we have, is what I say.

This club is definitely in a good position and can still progress with the plan in place, just like big Tim Krul says.

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In terms of how much we would miss particular players I would say its:

Pukki

Buendia

Cantwell

Aarons

Lewis

Godfrey

I think Pukki might possibly be persuaded to stay. I have no real feel at all for how Emi feels about the club but sense he would look to move if there was interest from the prem. Cantwell would also I think and would be a loss but I think potentially replaceable. With Aarons we do at least have Byram if his injury is not too bad. Ditto Lewis where we have got the Cov kid coming in. Godfrey I think is class but I don't think we've missed him that much really during his recent absence with Hanley coming back into form and the 3 CB's we would have left are all good enough at champ level.

So whilst I would not want to sell any of them and hope we will play hardball and fight hard to keep all of them I think priority would be trying to persuade Pukki to stay. All of the others would be big losses but we arguably already do have replacements for them or certainly could find them with the cash we will get for them.

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Aarons and Lewis seem to both have ready-made replacements in house in Byram and McCallum. 

Pukki would be far and away the toughest to replace. 

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It looks like Norwich are laying the ground to sell Cantwell. He has been sent on a bit of a press junket recently, doing interviews in the Telegraph, Daily Mail and BBC. Webber did the same with Maddison 6 months before selling him. 
 

Cantwell, like Maddison, has had some accusations of arrogance and being a bit of a play boy going on in the background, so getting him out there to say how humble he is etc is a good way to help raise his fee. Maddison’s agent and Leicester make sure he’s in the press fairy regularly saying how humble and dedicated he is (despite a lot of evidence contrary to this). It is all work to maximise value of an asset. 
 

It looks like Lewis will be getting games until the end of the season now with Byram’s injury. If he plays well then Norwich might feel he’s a good one to sell with McCallum already in the building. 
 

Godfrey would be very hard to replace. A quick centre back who is good at playing the ball out from the back is a rare commodity - arguably more so than a good Championship striker. 

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3 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

Godfrey would be very hard to replace. A quick centre back who is good at playing the ball out from the back is a rare commodity - arguably more so than a good Championship striker.

They may be rarer than a good striker but I'd argue they are less essential. 

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51 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

It looks like Norwich are laying the ground to sell Cantwell. He has been sent on a bit of a press junket recently, doing interviews in the Telegraph, Daily Mail and BBC. Webber did the same with Maddison 6 months before selling him. 
 

Cantwell, like Maddison, has had some accusations of arrogance and being a bit of a play boy going on in the background, so getting him out there to say how humble he is etc is a good way to help raise his fee. Maddison’s agent and Leicester make sure he’s in the press fairy regularly saying how humble and dedicated he is (despite a lot of evidence contrary to this). It is all work to maximise value of an asset. 
 

It looks like Lewis will be getting games until the end of the season now with Byram’s injury. If he plays well then Norwich might feel he’s a good one to sell with McCallum already in the building. 
 

Godfrey would be very hard to replace. A quick centre back who is good at playing the ball out from the back is a rare commodity - arguably more so than a good Championship striker. 

Makes sense, good to have your input as always Bethnal.

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48 minutes ago, king canary said:

They may be rarer than a good striker but I'd argue they are less essential. 

Agreed. Especially at Championship level, where Zimmerman would class as a 'decent' ball playing CB

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1 hour ago, BobLoz3 said:

I am not that concerned about any of the players touted with leaving. I think we can find solutions for all of them, if they were to go.

The main one would actually be Pukki as it would be difficult to find another 25 goal striker (for the Championship) without shelling out some significant cash. But I don't think he'll go anyway.

It's funny though, that there are people who have constantly slagged off Cantwell, a few who say Godfrey isn't a good defender etc. etc. yet they start bleating when it's threatened that they may leave in the summer. Appreciate what we have, is what I say.

This club is definitely in a good position and can still progress with the plan in place, just like big Tim Krul says.

I agree. Pukki could very well stay with a caveat:

If he performs in Euros, say he scores 2 goals for a minor country like Finland and avoids injury, we could be looking at getting an "offer we can't refuse" (which we probably should refuse). Also you will not want your fortunes tied to a player feeling mistreated even if they put in an honest effort, which Pukki would do.

So, £20+M and any indication Pukki wants to go, he goes. Or does he have some kind of clause to relieve him of the current contract if we go down? Anybody?

IF he stays and we go down, another 25+ goal season for Pukki is unrealistic. It probably isn't even a good thing for the club, because it would mean you're pushing too many attacks through him. That is pretty much the opposite that Norwich should be aiming for in the future. The goal of keeping Pukki should be make him a valuable, but replaceable player.

 

1 hour ago, Jim Smith said:

So whilst I would not want to sell any of them and hope we will play hardball and fight hard to keep all of them I think priority would be trying to persuade Pukki to stay. All of the others would be big losses but we arguably already do have replacements for them or certainly could find them with the cash we will get for them.

Very much this. Well said.

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Due to his age I couldn’t really see English clubs paying big money for pukki. If, say a Chinese club, came in and offered him huge wages you couldn’t blame him for accepting it at this stage of his career. 

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3 minutes ago, vlad666 said:

Due to his age I couldn’t really see English clubs paying big money for pukki. If, say a Chinese club, came in and offered him huge wages you couldn’t blame him for accepting it at this stage of his career. 

Due to rule changes in China that route has been pretty much closed off. Clubs there now have to pay 100% on transfer fees on overseas players. So a £20m signing would cost a club £40m. 
 

I also can’t see Pukki being someone looking to semi-retire to a China/Middle Eastern league at this point of his career. If he scores plenty and Norwich get promoted again he’ll be back in the Prem before he’s 32. 

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1 hour ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

It looks like Norwich are laying the ground to sell Cantwell. He has been sent on a bit of a press junket recently, doing interviews in the Telegraph, Daily Mail and BBC. Webber did the same with Maddison 6 months before selling him. 
 

Cantwell, like Maddison, has had some accusations of arrogance and being a bit of a play boy going on in the background, so getting him out there to say how humble he is etc is a good way to help raise his fee. Maddison’s agent and Leicester make sure he’s in the press fairy regularly saying how humble and dedicated he is (despite a lot of evidence contrary to this). It is all work to maximise value of an asset. 

As ICF says, good post and good to have your informed view BYG. Do you think Leicester are preparing to sell Maddison? The extra money would be good but less so this summer than most.

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27 minutes ago, vlad666 said:

Due to his age I couldn’t really see English clubs paying big money for pukki. If, say a Chinese club, came in and offered him huge wages you couldn’t blame him for accepting it at this stage of his career. 

Forget about China. Pukki isn't a household name (yet). The economic and political situation is unstable currently, which means their top-down football operation could be cut down in size without warning. Besides, I just get the feeling Pukki isn't that much after massive fortunes either. Beyond football field he seems rather...modest? Got his hair cut by Grant?

Premier League probably isn't going to put up the money that justifies selling Pukki unless he wants to go. BUT, He's worth more than you think, because he doesn't have injury history and because he's performed very well during TWO seasons back to back. I mean top scorer in Champs, top 10 scorer in PL, with very specific abilities could be worth a LOT for a big club even if they expect to get only 2 seasons out of him. 

If Pukki doesn't go now, the target is probably going to be Bundesliga for the rest of his career. Borussia Dortmund in particular. Farke goes there, I can't see why Pukki wouldn't go there too.

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1 hour ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

Due to rule changes in China that route has been pretty much closed off. Clubs there now have to pay 100% on transfer fees on overseas players. So a £20m signing would cost a club £40m. 
 

I also can’t see Pukki being someone looking to semi-retire to a China/Middle Eastern league at this point of his career. If he scores plenty and Norwich get promoted again he’ll be back in the Prem before he’s 32. 

I think it is highly unlikely he leaves in the summer. If, come January, we're sitting mid-table though, I can see a team battling relegation stumping up a decent sum for him.

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1 hour ago, Upo said:

If Pukki doesn't go now, the target is probably going to be Bundesliga for the rest of his career. Borussia Dortmund in particular. Farke goes there, I can't see why Pukki wouldn't go there too.

Absolutely no way in this world that Dortmund would sign Pukki, just not going to happen. They have a ‘no over 26’ rule that means they won’t sign anyone older than 26, apart from in exceptional circumstances - like getting club legend Hummels back. Even if Farke went there, he’d have no say over transfers. 

Also worth noting that he is scoring below his expected goals level, so I don’t think too many will consider he’s having a very good season this time around - certain not enough to make them want to spend the £20m that Norwich would probably ask for. 

I can see the situation that King Canary brings up that should Norwich not be challenging for play-offs come January there might be a change in the situation. But even then I can see Prem teams looking for the next Jarrod Bowen rather than a 30 something striker. 

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I see that Leicester are looking to sign Lallana, which would then open up a space on Liverpool’s bench for Cantwell. Maybe Lallana is being lined up to replace Maddison who will leave Leicester for silly money.
 

Assuming we got £30m for Cantwell and a big windfall from a Maddison transfer, we may be able to hold onto everyone else, at least until Jan. 

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Teemu Pukki is a niche striker who had a side built to his strengths and Farke turned him from a perennial journeyman to a striker who gained national recognition and this so boosted his confidence he became a Finland talisman. 

Norwich City has any number of like players who owe their career upturn or development to Webber and Farke. 

For me, the best of them all is Max Aarons who I personally believe would be the only one currently able to flourish at another club at EPL level. 

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2 hours ago, Upo said:

If Pukki doesn't go now, the target is probably going to be Bundesliga for the rest of his career. Borussia Dortmund in particular. Farke goes there, I can't see why Pukki wouldn't go there too.

I can't see Farke going to Dortmund yet either... Perhaps in the future, if they really do want him.

I genuinely believe both he and Webber will see out their remaining two years here. Bearing in mind nothing goes drastically awry!

Edited by BobLoz3

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4 hours ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

It looks like Norwich are laying the ground to sell Cantwell. He has been sent on a bit of a press junket recently, doing interviews in the Telegraph, Daily Mail and BBC. Webber did the same with Maddison 6 months before selling him. 
 

Cantwell, like Maddison, has had some accusations of arrogance and being a bit of a play boy going on in the background, so getting him out there to say how humble he is etc is a good way to help raise his fee. Maddison’s agent and Leicester make sure he’s in the press fairy regularly saying how humble and dedicated he is (despite a lot of evidence contrary to this). It is all work to maximise value of an asset. 
 

It looks like Lewis will be getting games until the end of the season now with Byram’s injury. If he plays well then Norwich might feel he’s a good one to sell with McCallum already in the building. 
 

Godfrey would be very hard to replace. A quick centre back who is good at playing the ball out from the back is a rare commodity - arguably more so than a good Championship striker. 

If we sell Cantwell for good money in the summer, do you think Buendia will still be here next season?

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19 hours ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

Which is great. But it tends to be the older players getting comfy rather than the young hungry players chasing the top.

There is a point missing from this discussion IMO “the young hungry players chasing the top” need a platform to show their talents, and by coming to Norwich they get that chance. So selling a Maddison and maybe an Aarons and a Cantwell, is a vital part of the club’s strategy, not only for the sake of the Pounds but also for the sake of upgrading our overall squad talent pool.    

It’s just a question of “when” not “if” we sell, but now we do not have to sell our talent on the cheap or in a fire sale like the club is accused of doing in the past.

Edited by Surfer
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1 hour ago, Ramrod said:

For me, the best of them all is Max Aarons who I personally believe would be the only one currently able to flourish at another club at EPL level. 

You put Buendia in any top 4 side and he instantly becomes a top, top player.    With the service and freedom he would be an absolute star.... stats rarely lie.     No doubt straight in the Argentina side too....be great to see him alongside Messi while he's still a yellow though!   Godfrey would flourish in a top side with experience alongside him and a decent defensive midfielder.... and Aarons and Lewis would flourish in our side if we had Godfrey at DM or any high quality DM in there.  

Hopefully all of them will flourish at Carrow Road..... and we ain't relegated yet!   

 

OTBC

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It looks like Lewis will be getting games until the end of the season now with Byram’s injury. If he plays well then Norwich might feel he’s a good one to sell with McCallum already in the building. 

No good relying on McCallum. According to our website, he hasn't been born yet

Sam

McCallum

Defender

 

Biography

DATE OF BIRTH

02/09/2020

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18 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

It looks like Lewis will be getting games until the end of the season now with Byram’s injury. If he plays well then Norwich might feel he’s a good one to sell with McCallum already in the building. 

No good relying on McCallum. According to our website, he hasn't been born yet

Sam

McCallum

Defender

 

Biography

DATE OF BIRTH

02/09/2020

What better example of forward thinking by Webber could you want?! 

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23 hours ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

Absolutely no way in this world that Dortmund would sign Pukki, just not going to happen. They have a ‘no over 26’ rule that means they won’t sign anyone older than 26, apart from in exceptional circumstances - like getting club legend Hummels back. Even if Farke went there, he’d have no say over transfers. 

Also worth noting that he is scoring below his expected goals level, so I don’t think too many will consider he’s having a very good season this time around - certain not enough to make them want to spend the £20m that Norwich would probably ask for. 

I can see the situation that King Canary brings up that should Norwich not be challenging for play-offs come January there might be a change in the situation. But even then I can see Prem teams looking for the next Jarrod Bowen rather than a 30 something striker. 

 

He is a top 10 PL striker. He is pretty much tracking or surpassing his xGs consistently. Every shot is a toss of a dice, and he's good at getting those shots. He isn't getting the ball often enough. That is the problem. Not his consistency. The rest of the team is underperforming their respective chances markedly.

All this is despite running Pukki to the ground. Teemu has played more minutes than anybody in the squad. He is consistently tracking down to help defend. Tracking down LOW. That is NOT what a top striker is supposed to do. Top strikers are supposed to be fresh when they get those handful of chances, one of which they on average might put in. Pukki has just run down, then back up, then pressed, then run down, then run back up, and then he gets that "Pukki run", and he's going in with thighs screaming from lactic acid with little support since the rest of the team is too far back. Despite being lonely up top, he's still managed to assist 3 goals, which is more than half the top strikers ahead of him in PL who are playing in teams scoring twice as many goals as Norwich.

Imagine being a striker for a team playing against the world's best defences, and the opposition knows who you are. They know what you've done. They can expect to face little threat from anybody else beyond set pieces. They can dedicate 1-2 players to shadow him constantly. And still Pukki manages to create space, get those runs, get those xGs and scoring. It is a damn miracle. Or he is very, very good at what he is doing.

And if you think that Champs and PL are "a fluke", perhaps you could explain him scoring 10 times in 10 games in Euro qualifiers while playing for a national team that has never in its history gotten into a top international tournament!

He is a late bloomer. And his past stats are decent. No injury history. Dortmund would happily take him, and they wouldn't have to pay £20M.

 

Reliance on top goal scorers by team %G, %GA.png

Pukki's 4 game moving sum ALT Tottenham.jpg

Pukki average per game xG, G by month.png

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On 19/02/2020 at 15:15, Darth Vadis said:

If we sell Cantwell for good money in the summer, do you think Buendia will still be here next season?

Time will tell. 🙂

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2 hours ago, Upo said:

And if you think that Champs and PL are "a fluke", perhaps you could explain him scoring 10 times in 10 games in Euro qualifiers while playing for a national team that has never in its history gotten into a top international tournament!

1) Nobody is saying it was a fluke and it is pretty bad form to put something like that in quote marks when nobody has said it.

2) His 10 international goals- 1 was scored against Italy, the next highest rank team he scored against was 49th placed Bosnia.

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They're all pretty well replaceable bar Pukki. He's the gem, the golden nugget. Many are on long contracts, so must have been happy to sign irrespective of which division we're in next season.

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3 hours ago, king canary said:

1) Nobody is saying it was a fluke and it is pretty bad form to put something like that in quote marks when nobody has said it.

2) His 10 international goals- 1 was scored against Italy, the next highest rank team he scored against was 49th placed Bosnia.

1) Quote marks were meant to be sarcastic. Considering the post I was reacting to, perhaps I was reading into it a little bit of other commentary I've heard and read and got in a bit of a huff. My pet peeve is when people are overlooking the efforts of certain players when it's apparent from the statistics that we're mostly still talking about normal ebb and flow, fluctuations around a long term trend which does not support overtly critical or even dismissive comments. I'll be more circumspect in the future. I'm standing behind what I said, though.

2) I doubt you'd hold it against Mane for scoring against a team 20 ranks down. Finland is #58. Greece, Bosnia and Italy rank higher. Also, he did score against Italy. 😛

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