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paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

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28 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

What I'm seeing here is a lot of 'trust' in the governments policy from Ess, BB and SonyC.- yet the short take on Ess's comment - is that it indeed was a political decision not to do too much too quickly and stay behind the curve (I thought the government was trying to flatten the curve ......)!

The problem it appears with the chief 'scientists' modelling is that they assume it seems a compliant population that will do what it's told - and a well behaved virus!  Neither is true. They think (now as the game keeps changing) ) they can throttle in a stop/start mode the pandemic off and on so as to keep the numbers  < NHS saturation out to a year or more - until the 'herd' immunity (or a vaccine) leads to some population immunity. A lot of wishful thinking here. It hasn't worked elsewhere!

What we actually needed was an 'engineering' solution. Engineers when they design something are used to dealing with tolerances and items generally misbehaving - worst case. Feedback loops and compensation  / over design are what makes things, and keeps things working. No wishful thinking. The 'engineering' solution wouldn't have relied on wobbly soft  'advice' but enforcement - though will not go to to the pubs or shops a week or more ago etc. Then you can model !

I'm am with you on this Yellow Fever. The point Ess was making though (I beleive) is that the public would not be compliant and government knew that. It was an expedient action only. I am very doubtful whether complete lockdown would have been possible.

 

But I do wish we would move this way (to save more lives). I wish we had tested in January. I wish we had closed borders and quarantined folk from the outset coming back from abroad. Lots of wishes actually.

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30 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

image.thumb.jpeg.d75cb9e07082bf9d00eb198557aa4436.jpeg

This shows the comparison very well Hairy. I keep watching Italy and pray that the numbers start to fall.

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

This shows the comparison very well Hairy. I keep watching Italy and pray that the numbers start to fall.

Yes sonic, me too. Their upward curve is still increasing.

The comparisons are scarily similar.

Edited by Hairy Canary

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29 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

What I'm seeing here is a lot of 'trust' in the governments policy from Ess, BB and SonyC.- yet the short take on Ess's comment - is that it indeed was a political decision not to do too much too quickly and stay behind the curve (I thought the government was trying to flatten the curve ......)!

The problem it appears with the chief 'scientists' modelling is that they assume it seems a compliant population that will do what it's told - and a well behaved virus!  Neither is true. They think (now as the game keeps changing) ) they can throttle in a stop/start mode the pandemic off and on so as to keep the numbers  < NHS saturation out to a year or more - until the 'herd' immunity (or a vaccine) leads to some population immunity. A lot of wishful thinking here. It hasn't worked elsewhere!

What we actually needed was an 'engineering' solution. Engineers when they design something are used to dealing with tolerances and items generally misbehaving - worst case. Feedback loops and compensation  / over design are what makes things, and keeps things working. No wishful thinking. The 'engineering' solution wouldn't have relied on wobbly soft  'advice' but enforcement - though will not go to to the pubs or shops a week or more ago etc. Then you can model !

Actually YF for me personally, it was not about trust in a government  policy...i could see from very early...and i know from T's posts that he could to...that nearly any government policy in the western world, indeed  nearly all outside of mainland China, would only play a very distant fiddle to the Coronavirus tune. All along i have not put trust in, nor been against government policy. What i have done is listened to the very important and serious advice that Boris has been saying from day one, advice from the medical and scientific areas. Wash your hands for 20 secs...social distancing....stay at home...etc etc...Boris has not been silent on these personal  and practical but hugely important actions that we, the public, should all take heed to and act upon. The single biggest thing from the outset was wash your hands for 20 secs...how can any government policy force everybody to do this single and simple act?...of course none..policy  can do a certain amount of good or bad...which in anycase, far as im concerned, should be decided when all this saga is  got thru, but BY FAR, the biggest and BEST policy to at least stop the spread of the virus happening faster comes from us, not government policy..and no lockdown exists or even should need to exist that can force personal actions we individually take.

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13 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

Yes sonic, me too. Their upward curve is still increasing.

The comparisons are scarily similar.

I think that the rate of increase is dropping in both italy and spain. 

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5 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I think that the rate of increase is dropping in both italy and spain. 

Barbe, if you check Worldometer you can see a selection of country names are highlighted in blue, clicking those will bring up a number of graphs for that individual nation. For Italy and Spain check daily new cases and daily new deaths graph ,the very upward curve show no dropping of increase  rate at all in either nation.

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11 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I think that the rate of increase is dropping in both italy and spain. 

We can but hope👍

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So, 665 confirmed new cases in the UK today,  over 78,000 testings  now done. Yes, likely another sad increase in deaths likely when theyre announced, 11 already excluding England.

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Posted (edited)

Worldometer  changes the new day at midnight GMT...USA new cases are just mind blowing already..almost 14,000 new cases today and 6 hrs still to go, states over there give their daily figures  at different times of course.

There are now more confirmed cases of the virus in New York state alone than the whole of France and UK combined.

Edited by Essjayess
added words

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36 minutes ago, ricardo said:

We can but hope👍

Yes. Lets hope. It needs the full Monte of a shut down though!

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49 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Worldometer  changes the new day at midnight GMT...USA new cases are just mind blowing already..almost 14,000 new cases today and 6 hrs still to go, states over there give their daily figures  at different times of course.

There are now more confirmed cases of the virus in New York state alone than the whole of France and UK combined.

Couple of US tracing sites - one reason the numbers are skyrocketing is there is more testing going on, and the virus has obviously been here for a while so is only now beeing revealed. 

But it's bad. No sugar coating that - cities of New York, Seattle, Chicago, Detroit, New Orleans especially so. Last week you would have said San Francisco, San Jose and Los Angeles, but they've either stabilized or have been overtaken by the above. Watch out for Miami next. 

https://www.coronainusa.com

https://covidtracking.com/data/

an an influenza like illness tracking site - the uses internet enables thermometer data.

https://healthweather.us 

 

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes. Lets hope. It needs the full Monte of a shut down though!

They would need the army out. The young of today don't like being told what to do, they aren't used to it.

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1 minute ago, ricardo said:

They would need the army out. The young of today don't like being told what to do, they aren't used to it.

It's us boomers too!

Good example was Johnson's father 🤣

 

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When you've been married for 56 years you tend to get used to being told what to do😉

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They would need the army out. 

My son is in the Coldstream Guards up in Windsor and been told his three kids can still go to school because he is classed as essential. It might not be long before we see the services either delivering or patrolling. Not something I ever believed we would see happen in this country and it won't have anything to do with terror or uprsising.

 

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11 minutes ago, ricardo said:

When you've been married for 56 years you tend to get used to being told what to do😉

Ha ha yes i echo that ricardo. Only 41 years here, but same sentiment.

Cases in Norfolk risen by 10 today to stand at 34 now.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Barbe, if you check Worldometer you can see a selection of country names are highlighted in blue, clicking those will bring up a number of graphs for that individual nation. For Italy and Spain check daily new cases and daily new deaths graph ,the very upward curve show no dropping of increase  rate at all in either nation.

I read looking at the logarithmic graph. It seems to show the % increase falling.  So the numbers go up each day but at a falling rate of increase. It's a small thing but better this than the alternative.

Edited by Barbe bleu

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2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I read looking at the logarithmic graph. It seems to show the % increase falling.  Do the numbers go up each day but at a falling rate of increase. It's a small thing but better this than the alternative.

I believe the peak was reached in Wuhan after 10 days of lockdown. Please correct me if this is wrong.

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8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I believe the peak was reached in Wuhan after 10 days of lockdown. Please correct me if this is wrong.

The rate seems to fall in the days after 13 February  (if you  believe what is reported)  so lockdown somewhere between 1-7 February would fit.  Is this correct?

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Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Ha ha yes i echo that ricardo. Only 41 years here, but same sentiment.

Cases in Norfolk risen by 10 today to stand at 34 now.

where did you find the Norfolk figures EJ? With our demographics we have a very vulnerable population

Edited by Van wink

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-track-coronavirus-cases

 

Local authority returns are in the last of the four links but the dashboard is very good

That Norfolk figure of 34 looks high relative to Suffolk on 18 and Essex, a lot closer to the London hotspot, on 53. Does this indicate that maybe the N and N is taking cases from London or would the Norfolk cases all be people that reside here. Maybe visitors taken ill when in the County? All thats really being sampled now I believe is those in hospital so its hard to really interpret the figures.

Edited by Van wink

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3 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Actually YF for me personally, it was not about trust in a government  policy...i could see from very early...and i know from T's posts that he could to...that nearly any government policy in the western world, indeed  nearly all outside of mainland China, would only play a very distant fiddle to the Coronavirus tune. All along i have not put trust in, nor been against government policy. What i have done is listened to the very important and serious advice that Boris has been saying from day one, advice from the medical and scientific areas. Wash your hands for 20 secs...social distancing....stay at home...etc etc...Boris has not been silent on these personal  and practical but hugely important actions that we, the public, should all take heed to and act upon. The single biggest thing from the outset was wash your hands for 20 secs...how can any government policy force everybody to do this single and simple act?...of course none..policy  can do a certain amount of good or bad...which in anycase, far as im concerned, should be decided when all this saga is  got thru, but BY FAR, the biggest and BEST policy to at least stop the spread of the virus happening faster comes from us, not government policy..and no lockdown exists or even should need to exist that can force personal actions we individually take.

I agree with this. it is taking the precautions and working together at the very local level (such as neighbours looking out for the vulnerable in their community) that you are going to have the most effective solution to win time until a vaccine is ready.

One problem with the early lockdown is that you are locking down those who have not been exposed to the virus and therefore not building up any immunity. Once the number of new infections is under control, the politicians will be under great public pressure to relax the lockdown and allow people to venture outside. It will then only take a few lingering cases of the virus to set off a new wave of infection among all those yet to be exposed people. And so you are back to square one and returning to lockdown again.

Wait and see if the numbers take off again in China.

If so, then the better policy might be to have localised lockdowns in some areas and not others so as to flatten the curve. Turning the tap on and off as necessary.  I doubt we can eradicate this virus until a vaccine is ready.

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One of the deaths today was 18 years old. Tragic 

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5 hours ago, sonyc said:

https://www.thelocal.dk/20200320/why-is-denmarks-lockdown-so-much-more-severe-than-swedens

Fascinating read about the two strategies by adjoining countries. Interesting to see the results of actions of both governments

Interesting indeed sonyc. To me it perfectly illustrates how Boris and every other national leader in Europe is trying to deal and grapple with a vicious invisible enemy thats come from nowhere in a relatively short time, taking away lives, wrecking economys and also that much about this virus is unknown, how it may react at anytime. This is why, unlike some other posters on this topic, i will not criticise Boris for the strategy / policy that hes laid out. Some have said hes making it up as he goes along, in truth he and every other leader have no choice, its that fast moving and unprecedented. I will neither be a fanboy either,  the only important thing in my eyes is heed and act on the advice he is imploring us all to do...he has a thankless task...,as have all the leaders.

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Delay measures are ultimately about people taking individual responsibility for the good of society. A tough sell in the UK individualistic society hence the UK Govt more hesitant advisory approach than other countries. 

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