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Wuhan coronavirus

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China has/reported 80,000 cases but that is a tiny fraction of 1.4 billion people. Daily numbers now are in the teens.

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9 minutes ago, sonyc said:

One of my first ever posts about this subject was that I wondered out loud whether this issue could bring down a government. If things get nasty we could have civil unrest. Yet, we are not like France on the whole. Their citizens even take very strong local action if things are not right (pouring milk into fountains or taking pigs into supermarkets and dumping manure in relation to agricultural salaries/pensions/ milk prices etc)

The French at heart are very backward people

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14 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Richard Horton (Lancet) article today is very critical and essentially blames complacency when scientists knew something was happening in Wuhan. In terms of delay who knows when we might have acted?

Who might have closed and locked down the country 3 to 4 weeks ago? It would seem unbelievable. Yet, the U Turn in trying now to suppress rather than let it naturally infect is the big change.

 

The science, as Horton states, has always been the same. Yet, we keep hearing that the government is being "led by the science". It certainly is curious.

 

The actions of all concerned will have to be properly scrutinised when all this is over, for now all we can do is follow the guidance we are being given. The change from a policy of "herd resistance"  to "suppression" as you say, is a massive change and there are serious questions to be asked about why this happened and what was new to cause a change of direction. I have my suspicions that the science has been the same all along but that the political direction changed. Now is not the time to be undermining the government however, our best hope is for a total buy in to the strategy, no other choice.

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5 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The actions of all concerned will have to be properly scrutinised when all this is over, for now all we can do is follow the guidance we are being given. The change from a policy of "herd resistance"  to "suppression" as you say, is a massive change and there are serious questions to be asked about why this happened and what was new to cause a change of direction. I have my suspicions that the science has been the same all along but that the political direction changed. Now is not the time to be undermining the government however, our best hope is for a total buy in to the strategy, no other choice.

Agree 100%. We need Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and all the medical experts to lead and lead strongly. We need them to be amazingly successful. They are improving.

Like the press who scrutinise and represent what they see and hear from society and the public, we need to keep asking questions but we must follow the advice and guidance. Trouble is, a lot of people need telling 7 times and in 7 different ways!

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2 hours ago, ricardo said:

You may have been lucky so let us hope it works out well for you.👍

All over seventies should act responsibly and stay the fcuk home so as not to put any undo pressure on the NHS.

Unfortunately I have a dental appointment so cannot avoid a trip out tomorrow.

 

 

Surely those over 70's living in rural areas are ok to go out if it is easy to avoid contact with others?

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There is no change in policy. The govt always said they would escalate measures as cases escalated. Everyone is still saying that 50 to 80 pc will get this so the number of cases doesn’t change all everyone is doing is spreading when people get sick. People still want to believe the govt can get rid for f this. That is just an understandable denial of reality. This is passing through the population regardless. The govt is only managing timing. And no punter knows better. 

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40 minutes ago, sonyc said:

One of my first ever posts about this subject was that I wondered out loud whether this issue could bring down a government. If things get nasty we could have civil unrest. Yet, we are not like France on the whole. Their citizens even take very strong local action if things are not right (pouring milk into fountains or taking pigs into supermarkets and dumping manure in relation to agricultural salaries/pensions/ milk prices etc)

I dont know about a lot of things Sonyc, but i see a fair few posters on here blaming Boris and his government for most things, many of which simply are not true if examined properly. At one stage a few seemed to give the impression that the UK were lagging behind nearly everyone else in virus testing...until Matt Hancock put it in actual factual stats. Same with Schools closing, many say Boris has acted to late, if so then most all euro nations have. Ive  followed closely the daily number of new cases in most nations, can tell you that  taking into consideration the number of new daily confirmed cases compared to national population, Boris has announced school closures around 2 or 3 days earlier than Macron or Merkel did at their stage of the virus outbreak. If its going to be that members of the population want to do Boris bashing, then fine, but bash  every Euro leader to, because this is a Europe, indeed global issue.

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It isn't enough to say Boris is 2 days ahead SJS, the great amount of opinion from the experts in the field, not Hancock or Sunak, but proper experts, is that Boris chose tails not heads. Isolation as soon as possible seems to be the consensus.

Nobody, at this time wants to bash Governments because they have enough pressure, so it isn't personal. But Johnson has listened to the wrong advice. Blimey, even Trump, although not admitting he was wrong, has been doing more.

Virtually every newscast or ordinary jokers you speak to says the same thing. There was never enough clarity from the beginning.

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32 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

It isn't enough to say Boris is 2 days ahead SJS, the great amount of opinion from the experts in the field, not Hancock or Sunak, but proper experts, is that Boris chose tails not heads. Isolation as soon as possible seems to be the consensus.

Nobody, at this time wants to bash Governments because they have enough pressure, so it isn't personal. But Johnson has listened to the wrong advice. Blimey, even Trump, although not admitting he was wrong, has been doing more.

Virtually every newscast or ordinary jokers you speak to says the same thing. There was never enough clarity from the beginning.

The government is following the vice of its own experts. However there are other experts who believe  a different course  should be followed. As ever one set will be right and one set wrong. The more likely result however will be both sets of experts will be half right and half wrong.

The government will be blamed for things that go wrong while things that go right will be ignored. It will be praised by its supporters and castigated by its opponents.

It was ever thus.

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many thanks to the chancellor For dropping the pound into the cellar by supporting the moneyed classes and local coulcils 330,5 billion, whilst doing nothing for the people of this country. Johnson's angstful support for his main voters is painful to watch.

Todays announcements on closures of schools, unless your parents are in the police fire services and the NHS will mean that those who get into contact with the virus professionally, could potentially infect their children and hence the teachers in school, endangering the continuity of education after this is finished. Everything they do is tinged with their political agenda. Their testing regime is lacking, the protection of frontline staff is compromised with old equipment and dithering is covered up with slogans.

take care all.

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21 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

many thanks to the chancellor For dropping the pound into the cellar by supporting the moneyed classes and local coulcils 330,5 billion, whilst doing nothing for the people of this country. Johnson's angstful support for his main voters is painful to watch.

Todays announcements on closures of schools, unless your parents are in the police fire services and the NHS will mean that those who get into contact with the virus professionally, could potentially infect their children and hence the teachers in school, endangering the continuity of education after this is finished. Everything they do is tinged with their political agenda. Their testing regime is lacking, the protection of frontline staff is compromised with old equipment and dithering is covered up with slogans.

take care all.

schools open, schools closed, herd immunity or not herd immunity...as T rightly said, Boris and the experts are doing what they said  they would do at the appropiate times, that has not changed, also this FACT...every single european nation, whether you think they acted fast enough, to slow, had the right measures or not...in fact everything that every single nation in europe has done  concerning  the virus has not stopped increases in the virus...as T once again rightly said...the virus is going thru all our populations in europe, no matter what strategy any government came up with.

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20 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

schools open, schools closed, herd immunity or not herd immunity...as T rightly said, Boris and the experts are doing what they said  they would do at the appropiate times, that has not changed, also this FACT...every single european nation, whether you think they acted fast enough, to slow, had the right measures or not...in fact everything that every single nation in europe has done  concerning  the virus has not stopped increases in the virus...as T once again rightly said...the virus is going thru all our populations in europe, no matter what strategy any government came up with.

Ess. This is simply not true. Our Asian friends have clearly demonstrated that it is possible to control this disease. It was simply a matter of political will here and elsewhere that choose not to implement and more so enforce such draconian measures earlier. You may believe that we couldn't had held the line so as to speak but a few televised rough examples of the wayward being restrained forcefully and the message would of got through.

Did you see the St Patrick day parties in L'Pool on the telly tonight. Unbelievable.

I see it is now highly likely that these very measures will arrive in London by this weekend. Lock down.

Boris's problem is as ever he is seen to be behind the curve, reacting too slowly and being forced along like a stubborn  child by the virus.

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12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Ess. This is simply not true. Our Asian friends have clearly demonstrated that it is possible to control this disease. It was simply a matter of political will here and elsewhere that choose not to implement and more so enforce such draconian measures earlier. You may believe that we couldn't had held the line so as to speak but a few televised rough examples of the wayward being restrained forcefully and the message would of got through.

Did you see the St Patrick day parties in L'Pool on the telly tonight. Unbelievable.

I see it is now highly likely that these very measures will arrive in London by this weekend. Lock down.

Boris's problem is as ever he is seen to be behind the curve, reacting too slowly and being forced along like a stubborn  child by the virus.

London is going to be in big trouble within a week. The lock down I suspect will be along the lines of closing down public transport, I think we may have left it too late. 

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Bog Roll.

Just a thought. Government to free issue every supermarket visitor 4 free rolls. Any more £20 each. All those panic buyers will look like mugs. Doubt it would cost much either in the current scheme of things. Threat with other panic items.

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3 hours ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

many thanks to the chancellor For dropping the pound into the cellar by supporting the moneyed classes and local coulcils 330,5 billion, whilst doing nothing for the people of this country. Johnson's angstful support for his main voters is painful to watch.

Todays announcements on closures of schools, unless your parents are in the police fire services and the NHS will mean that those who get into contact with the virus professionally, could potentially infect their children and hence the teachers in school, endangering the continuity of education after this is finished. Everything they do is tinged with their political agenda. Their testing regime is lacking, the protection of frontline staff is compromised with old equipment and dithering is covered up with slogans.

take care all.

The continuity of education is of a very minor consideration when the most important factor right now is to keep the economy from falling into a 1930s style depression. If that happens then all bets are off and you are looking at the complete breakdown of society. 

It is fortunate in some senses that this virus doesn't overly affect the working population because it gives us a chance to keep the economy going. It is the elderly and vulnerable that need protection and to go into lockdown. A blanket shutdown would be a huge mistake. 

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19th March stats begin and S. Korea new cases and deaths have more than doubled  compared to recent days...over 240 new cases 10 deaths..all you guys praising the oriental guys last few weeks..and agreed theyve been putting herculean efforts..but dont understimate this virus...its far, far, far from done yet even over there...even in China.  183 new cases in Brazil...thats set to explode sadly in the coming week or two.

RTB, i think the world cannot now escape a massive depression, a global one, due simply that this virus will deny all nations a proper economic start even for maybe a year at least...or longer.  Ive heard from a few here that China is all set to be even more  bigger world player from now..but  consider..so much  they export to the world these days..but  everywhere is shutting down...be it electrical parts for all manner of things and a myriad of other items..to be a seller you need a buyer...and the world will not buy this year due to virus shutdowns and maybe  next year to...nations economys will invariably need  money for internal needs more than for Chinese imports...China will take a big hit to...its inevitable.

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7 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Bog Roll.

Just a thought. Government to free issue every supermarket visitor 4 free rolls. Any more £20 each. All those panic buyers will look like mugs. Doubt it would cost much either in the current scheme of things. Threat with other panic items.

Sounds like an effective way to sort things, a form of rationing. 

Edited by Van wink

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I think some are still totally understandably in the stage of denial and blame. You can suppress this but not eliminate it so it is there until it passes through the population or vaccine is available. It is only a question of controlling the tap so we are only arguing about the timing and extent of measures.

Part of the improvement in China is suppression but also because it raged unchecked through the population at the start and how now passed through which is now enabling things to start to return to normal Therefore we see in China an element of natural improvement which is part of govt strategy.

 question is how best to suppress it sufficiently so that health services can cope  Resources are being redeployed and capacity built although not fast enough to cope with peak.  
 

The economy does need to be balanced against keeping this within healthcare capacity. 
 

This is deeper than 2008 recession but will be shorter. The working population is not being significantly impacted and it is a question of sufficient support for sectors hardest  hit to recover once the wave passes through. Resources are being redeployed. Increased medical capacity is being developed. There is unprecedented levels of international research into treatment and vaccines. It is going to be a very tough year but there will be a bounce  back once the wave passes through and medical capabilities increase. Mankind does have. a history of recovery from disasters  

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11 hours ago, sonyc said:

Agree 100%. We need Boris Johnson, Rishi Sunak and all the medical experts to lead and lead strongly. We need them to be amazingly successful. They are improving.

Like the press who scrutinise and represent what they see and hear from society and the public, we need to keep asking questions but we must follow the advice and guidance. Trouble is, a lot of people need telling 7 times and in 7 different ways!

As much as I dislike Johnson, at the moment I have to put it to one side. He seems to have put aside the 4D chess playing weirdos and is listening to the proper experts which is greatly needed. 

Scrutiny is still very important but a bit of slack will have to do at the moment. 

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8 hours ago, Van wink said:

London is going to be in big trouble within a week. The lock down I suspect will be along the lines of closing down public transport, I think we may have left it too late. 

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/coronavirus-full-list-40-tube-21717745

i can understand why the government wants to do this in an incremental way but I do hope they are calling this right, timing is of the essence now.

Edited by Van wink

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Next few months will probably be horrible whatever they do. And just like our other favourite subject we will never really know for sure as you can’t run universes in parallel and circumstances are different in different countries. Blame isn’t going to help thought. 

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4 minutes ago, T said:

Next few months will probably be horrible whatever they do......... Blame isn’t going to help thought. 

We have to get behind whatever is being done by government, now is not the time for political point scoring, there will be plenty of time for that later.

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12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We have to get behind whatever is being done by government, now is not the time for political point scoring, there will be plenty of time for that later.

Van wink

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Not seen much from the EU on the Covid 19 outbreak, in fact they have shown no leadership whatsoever and individual member states have all gone their own way, closing borders, Germany blocking shipments of face masks to its neighbours,  Italians getting more help from China than from EU member states. The EU appears to have been an irrelevance and lost its voice at a time when we see the greatest threat to Europe since the world war. Where are you? Lets be 'avin you!!

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The science weekly podcast from the guardian is a n interesting spice. Forget that this the Guardian the point is that it has epidemic specialists given their views. This time an epidemic modeller. Key points are because this is spreading to some extent without symptoms and with limited symptoms you can only suppress it and not eliminate it. and expected to reappear when restrictions released. Secondly delaying measures is a risky strategy because not enough info is available to know what will happen yet. Reality is though that social and economic factors need to be considered 

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4 minutes ago, T said:

The science weekly podcast from the guardian is a n interesting spice. Forget that this the Guardian the point is that it has epidemic specialists given their views. This time an epidemic modeller. Key points are because this is spreading to some extent without symptoms and with limited symptoms you can only suppress it and not eliminate it. and expected to reappear when restrictions released. Secondly delaying measures is a risky strategy because not enough info is available to know what will happen yet. Reality is though that social and economic factors need to be considered 

Yes I think thats right, the point here though is if you can suppress it, as and when it then emerges with a thorough and well resourced system of rapid testing with speedy results and contact tracing you should be able to keep it under control.That is a system that public heath officials are well versed in, but it has to have the resources to deal with multiple outbreaks at once.

Edited by Van wink
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Yes agree with that. I understand the intention is for uk to build up testing ability. And they said they are also working to test who already  had it. So it is a question of delay and building up capacity. They are saying next few months will be horrible but longer term I’m more optimistic. Those pesky Experte do have their uses and I for one will be grateful for those horrible Experte who develop testing, treatments and vaccines. 

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It is interesting because it is calm in an emergency zone where I am.  People are not consuming more and supplies are available so. it is physiological rather than rational. That supposed stiff upper limit is not so stiff. The only thing I have not seen for a while is disinfectant because obviously consumption of that has increased but I still have plenty. Shops are resstocking and capacity increased and no one starving so it is only a minor temporary problem. 

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