Jump to content
paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Boris has been pretty much following the line advised by Public Health England,, that’s not an unreasonable  position to take. He was slow to be seen to get personally involved. UK government generally has been praised for the way it is handling things. The politicians need a scapegoat for when the sh!t hits the fan.

The real question is what are you trying to achieve? There are two sides to any advice in play at present - scientists make rational economic dislocation decisions too  - the economic costs vs the number of deaths. It would extremely naive to assume that 'Public Health England' advice is not coloured by these economic and ultimately political choices.

If your aim is simply to delay or even control the disease (forget contain) accepting the huge economic damage, then you would be already going down the restrictions on travel, meetings and so on route - like China. These will have a MUCH greater effect NOW on the progress of the disease when numbers are low (which is clearly already at large unseen and hidden in the general population - indeed the odd random test has discovered some!) than in 2 or 3 weeks time. However it comes with a 'price' tag which the government has so far found unacceptable.

So no I regard Johnson's government as acting only in a 'reactive' way - having done nothing practical as yet to slow or limit the disease apart from hand washing advice and diligence. It remains unchecked. When they do react (1000, 10,000,  100,000 cases) it will be too late - the djinni will be fully out of bottle.

I see numbers of around 300,000 'excess' deaths modelled (largely in their voter base of over 65s) yet I see no practical action from the government that will actually push this unavoidable 'peak ' to the summer as they state - indeed it's almost as if they are simply as per Trump hoping for the best (Ok preparing rather better for the worst). 

When the dust on this settles - I suspect there will be a lot of "What we should of done sooner / better questions" to answer by an angry electorate. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The unwillingness to look at what China did may come back to haunt them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ricardo said:

The unwillingness to look at what China did may come back to haunt them.

Exactly Ricardo - You and  I can happily disagree on many Brexity things but we are at one on what perhaps needs to be done sooner rather than later on CV-19. We can see in China that it works! All I see at the moment practically from Johnson is warm words as ever and hand washing (both literally and metaphorically). 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I have a suspicion that Covid-19 coupled with the Presidentual elections may cause a sea change shift in the Yanks views on their dysfunctional health non-system. Money maybe won't protect you and insurance companies may start to look pretty sick too.

I doubt there will be elections later this year, anywhere. Or next year. I think there is a non-negligible chance that neither Trump nor Pence will make til the end of their term if they catch the virus. If they make it, I doubt there is enough white working class older men (the worst hit demograhic) alive to have anything but massive shift towards the Democrats. Currently Trump's government is doing its damnest to ensure such a worst case scenario. I don't yet think it's the most likely scenario, but every time that moron opens his mouth makes it more likely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, T said:

The Channel 4 piece is absolutely fine. This is a person with relevant experience and qualifications. from a credible news organisation. The vested interest is clearly disclosed. The views are challenged. The views are stated by reference to the WHO and the words are carefully weighted. I have never said that this is not serious and it is scurrilous to suggest so  

posting videos Through suggesting that you should damage phones with abrasive cleaners and that everyone will get this from an you tuber without relevant experience and qualifications is irresponsible. I agree with the CMO that social media should be used responsible
 

people on other countries die from wars. Disease and hunger all the time without a single post of concern from individuals on here  And yet they get very concerned about a disease where the average age of people dying in Italy is 81 in a country where the average age of death was 67 not so long ago  it appears that there are s lot of Poole who are concerned when an issue impacts them but not other people. 
 

The channel 4 piece notes that an issue is the  younger people are likely to take less action as it is likely not to impact them directly  The young would show more concern if more concern was shown for their issues rather than dismissing them such as denying climate change. it might be time for people to reflect and consider some enlightened self interest and show more concern for other people and then they are more likely to show concern for you  

and posting xenophobic and islamophobic views and campaigning against expert views on an ongoing basis when the importance of experts could. never to be clearer is a lot worse than pathetic. Again reflect and show some enlightened self interest by showing more empathy to other groups if you want them to be concerned for you. 

Young people, being young, tend not to think things through to a logical conclusion and are more likely to be less cautious than older people. As Channel 4 admitted. 

Unfortunately for the young they won't escape so easily as they might think. If the Corona virus doesn't get them, other things will. 

For example, if the hospitals are full, then normal hospital functions will cease. Operations cancelled. Appointments cancelled. Accidents and emergencies sitting in a queue for ambulances or treatment. All sorts of pre-emptive activity not taking place. 

This will affect non just the elderly, though they will suffer more proportionally, but the general population as well

Then there will be government containment measures that will affect the young if business is shutdown, and social and nightlife activities curtailed. Not life-threatening but still a major imposition on the young. And any shutdown of restaurants, bars, cinemas may well see them not re-open in the future given the current economic difficulties of the high-street economy. 

So there are plenty of knock-on effects of this virus that will impact on everyone's lives in some form or other. It would be very short-sighted thinking for anyone to believe this virus situation won't affect them in some way. 

Edited by Rock The Boat
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
41 minutes ago, Upo said:

Articles like this will cost thousands of lives as people fail to start prepping, self-quaranteening, hand-sanitizing, and there is not enough political pressure on the government to enforce war-time policies until it's too late.

Its a please dont scare the horses piece for people who can't do the maths. Even on the numbers in the article hospitals would be totally overun.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, T said:

The experts are not saying that we will all get it. They are saying that potentially potentially between 30 to 80pc depending on how it develops and action taken. could potentially get it at some point. They are pointing out  a worst case scenario. Another scenario is that it Regresses as the weather improves. People would be wise to watch and listen to what is actually being said. 

The UK has indicated that they will not go as far as China. UK is far more Individualistic society as demonstrated by the Sod you we won attitude of UK society. 

To get herd immunity, you need 50 to 70% infected first. Without any other measures, it's more like 80%. To avoid getting to that number before we have a vaccine, means moving into war time economy essentially. Which means, either we have dead people, or dead economy. A case can be made where you accept the disease will spread and try to protect the most at risk groups, with measures meant to only spread out the infections so we have more medical supplies available. This will save  the economy, but at the cost of tens of thousands if not hundreds of thousands of lives.

If we vacillate  between extremes without realistic policies, we get both dead economy and dead people. What you need to do in every scenario is to lock the places down NOW. Then think what parts of the economy you will start again and in what order. This means that many elderly politicians will be voting about how to go about the final months of their lives as they are old and will probably catch the disease.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

Young people, being young, tend not to think things through to a logical conclusion and are more likely to be less cautious than older people. As Channel 4 admitted. 

Unfortunately for the young they won't escape so easily as they might think. If the Corona virus doesn't get them, other things will. 

For example, if the hospitals are full, then normal hospital functions will cease. Operations cancelled. Appointments cancelled. Accidents and emergencies sitting in a queue for ambulances or treatment. All sorts of pre-emptive activity not taking place. 

This will affect non just the elderly, though they will suffer more proportionally, but the general population as well

Then there will be government containment measures that will affect the young if business is shutdown, and social and nightlife activities curtailed. Not life-threatening but still a major imposition on the young. And any shutdown of restaurants, bars, cinemas may well see them not re-open in the future given the current economic difficulties of the high-street economy. 

So there are plenty of knock-on effects of this virus that will impact on everyone's lives in some form or other. It would be very short-sighted thinking for anyone to believe this virus situation won't affect them in some way. 

Yes. All of this.

With health care system overstrained, you may get several flu strains circulating at the same time, chronic diseases poorly treated, large part of health care staff infected and unable to help, even basic supplies running out, unexpected shortages of random drugs due to supply chain disruptions.

All of these will affect young people. Plus, for 20% of them, the virus will feel really, really terrible. 0.2% death rate means out of 10 million young people infected, you get 20000 dead. Possibly a lot higher, because you don't have intensive treatment available which would help young people to get over the worst days. Not exactly insignificant. If you dropped a nuclear bomb on a modest sized town, you'd get less young casualties than with covid-19.

Still, it's mostly about the elderly and infirm.

Here. To demonstrate the precariousness of the situation. Middle East numbers are almost certainly massively underestimated. They'd probably show up in the eastern mediterranean numbers.

coronavirus06_03_2020.jpg

Edited by Upo

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

RTB. Agreed. My point exactly. It is actually n our selfish own interest to show more concern for other countries and other people. 
 

The guardian has plenty of other articles on the seriousness of the situation. This piece is merely pointing out that this will probably work out fine long term. It is not denying the short term. 
 

i fully appreciate some people are scared but society is not going to go lock down for 18 months until a vaccine is available. Especially in an individualistic society. This is primarily a disease that impacts the elderly and the seriously ill. The government ihas made it fairly clear that the policy will be for the 99pc rather than the 1pc and ride it out with some but limited restrictions for a period of time trying to care for the 1 pc as best they can with the limited resources available. 
 

There is of course nothing to stop people practicing good Hygiene and increased social distancing themselves. The majority of people consistently ignore expert advice to lead a healthy lifestyle which significantly reduces the risk of the serious illnesses most associated with death fron Covid 19. You can’t expect the state and other people to takes full responsibility for people when the fashion is for the majority of people to consistently ignore expert advice as they think they know best. People also need to take responsibility follow expert advice and take more care of their own health. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As its such early days  globally for the virus, numbers and %s for various  nations and various continents are all over the place right now. That graph  sure shows the Eastern Med taking a big hit, yet the only two Euro nations left with no confirmed cases are in that region, Albania and Bulgaria. Coronavirus has yet to  take a rapid leap in some  areas  such as Africa and South America, but that is just a matter of time. Brazil and Ecuador  both now have 14 cases, in Africa Algeria has  17.

From what i can deduce, a vaccine  may be at least 2 or 3 years away before one has been seen to be effective, then for it to be produced in sufficient quantities to satisfy a global theatre of virally infected. In which case, Coronavirus is free to rampage thru the world, each nation suffering according to many factors, likely prompt and immediate action taken by governments and by the people being a major factor in stemming the tide of this virus.

Just like flu it has genuine ability to change its course into something more, or less, devastating for the world. But absolutely its here to stay, and like flu, even with vaccines, it can never truly be eradicated now. For what its worth,  i personally think the times come for the halting of big events with big numbers of crowds, even France next door banned the gathering of 5k or more events quite a few days ago now.

Comparisons to flu is widely used by us all regarding this virus, but its not flu of course. We just dont know what effect Coronavirus will have  for us all in the coming  months and year or two, but its serious and weve been given advice individually things we can do to help ourselves, which in turn could help our neighbours, so much is up to us ourselves  to do all we can to keep safe and avoid this  virus as long as possible.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Herman said:

Such leadership qualities. At least Johnson had the good grace to STFU and let the experts do the talking, (4 years too late.)

"Donald Trump used a freewheeling press conference on Friday, intended to provide updates on the coronavirus, as an opportunity to attack Democrats, praise his own intelligence, lash out at CNN and spread false and misleading information about the status of the outbreak, as a slew of new cases were confirmed aboard a cruise ship off the California coast."

The CDC comments got a lot worse later.... (I'll stop posting about Trump here and put anything else on the Trump thread instead, but this is important) 

So it's all about the reported numbers in the US, who smart the President is, and who's "fault" it is apparently.

 

Edited by Surfer

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.psychologytoday.com/intl/blog/culture-mind-and-brain/202002/the-coronavirus-is-much-worse-you-think

Irrational fear of Covid 19 linked to xenophobia. Certainly evidence for that here.
 

UK policy of proportionate response is entirely rational from an overall society perspective. Fully appreciate that those with an irrational fear or those who are more at risk than the vast majority will want more draconian policies which reduce their risk but have a disproportionately adverse impact on the vast majority. Boris has made it clear that the response will need to be balanced and that is what it will be. Individuals will also have to decide to balance their own risk against reward as we do everyday. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
21 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Exactly Ricardo - You and  I can happily disagree on many Brexity things but we are at one on what perhaps needs to be done sooner rather than later on CV-19. We can see in China that it works! All I see at the moment practically from Johnson is warm words as ever and hand washing (both literally and metaphorically

Edited by Yellowfuture

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As expected, Italy now exploding. Lockdown too late unfortunately but other countries just as guilty. Most countries reacting to events rather than taking proactive measures. 

By this time next week the rest of Europe will be looking at similar numbers to Italy.

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just reading that an Italian newspaper leaked details of the lockdown so loads of people paniced and dispersed. Not the greatest of ideas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

As expected, Italy now exploding. Lockdown too late unfortunately but other countries just as guilty. Most countries reacting to events rather than taking proactive measures. 

By this time next week the rest of Europe will be looking at similar numbers to Italy.

The death rate in Italy seems to be quite high...especially considering many of the cases are still  "live"

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

The death rate in Italy seems to be quite high...especially considering many of the cases are still  "live"

A function of an ageing population profile plus Italians have always been a touch on the tactile side.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

“I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared. 

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil.  I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and  strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess. 

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even 
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession. 

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it.  Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous. 

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

#washurhands #geturflushot #respect #patiencenotpanic“


From an infectious disease specialist. I think you will find most countries are making a difficult but calculated decision. A lot more people are dying from heart disease and diabetes not to forget numerous other infectious disease together with war yet that does not stop the majority of people becoming overweight. If people are really concerned about their health.then eat healthily and get some exercise.  People are clearly not very good at assessing risk at focusing  on what is in the news.
 

.   There are saying a worst case of 100000 compared to 500000 annual death rate primarily of the elderly with serious pre existing conditions. They are not going to stop the world for 99pc of the population for 18 months. At the moment the risk is very low so drastic measures don’t make sense but following good hygiene and mitigating to delay obviously make sense but shutting the UK for 18 months just isn’t going to happen. 

Edited by T

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

We have already seen it on another thread. It's copied from Facebook.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is but from a credible source that checks out and whose views are consistent with the policy being perused by the UK government and their expert advisors. The UK policy will be based on expert advice rather than punters on the internet.
 

If people disagree with taking the lives of the 99pc into account they are of course at liberty to self isolate for the next 18 months until a vaccine with potentially limited protection is available.  I appreciate some people are scared of anything foreign to them  But I think most people will realise at some point we face risks all the time and we have to get on with life. hopefully more people will finally listen  to expert advice and take more care of their heath to mitigate those risks. People who are scared will have to accept that it is not tenable to have a long term policy based on the 1pc. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

About 10 years ago I caught the flu, it really knocked me out for 2 weeks. When I recovered I decided I did not want it again, so since then every time I go out and touch something someone else has , I ensure I wash my hands asap. On the good side, I've not even caught a cold since.  Please ensure you people out there do the same.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

CPAC - the annual convention of RWNJ's, where the theme this year is Coronavirus is a political hit job.

I don't wish anyone ill, but sometimes Karma can be a b**ch.  

 

 

 

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2020/03/04/coronavirus-covid-19-5-things-you-can-do-to-protect-yourself-and-your-community/

The earlier  article has gone viral and been published because it shares the sentiment of a lot of people and also the WHO and the PHE above who have stated that the response should be proportionate based on evidence and take into consideration social and economic factors.
 

If people think they know better than the WHO and PHE then by all means share their qualifications and experience together with their analysis and supporting evidence. 

None of them are saying that we shouldn’t take hygiene precautions and prepare to self isolate including eg considering delivery options and to work from home as I have done. But they are also saying that we should not panic eg encourage irrational panic buying and get on with our lives.
 

Most people are not picking this up from going around in their general  lives but being contained In gatherings and clusters from close contact with family and friends. Only 1pc of people who are being  tested as a result of potential contact are testing positive. Only a tiny percentage of people in hubei have contracted this and an even a tinier percentage are dying. Which shows this is not as contagious as some diseases and can be controlled by limiting public gatherings and working from home which is part of the govt plan.
 

Complete lock down of society for 18 months isn’t going to happen and there are no reports of people starving. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Showing my genius and staying one step ahead of the lemming like crowd I am now stockpiling underpants. Who needs cupboards full of toilet roll?? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...