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paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

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Chief medical officer No need for public to stockpile. Marathon not sprint. There is nothing that would rationally lead someone to stock up on stuff.
 

Being prepared for 14 days Isolation period makes sense but there will be restocking and could be 18 months before a possible vaccine with limited protection so makes sense to restrict contact during peak but we are going to have to learn to cope with this. 

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14 hours ago, T said:

https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200304-coronavirus-covid-19-update-why-people-are-stockpiling

Apparently those who are panic buying need  psychological help 🙂 Really doing something constructive or trying to feed their anxiety sounds about right  There is being prepared and being scared which is not helpful  

Perlapy we could also have daily updates on here of cases and deaths of flu and every other condition by country.? Being aware and following medical advice is of course a good idea but obsession and paranoia are not recommended by experts as they are mentally unhealthy.  We are all going to die of something sometime so you might as well enjoy it while you can rather than obsessing and worrying about things you can not control otherwise these will have a detrimental effect on your life. But what would the experts who recommend perspective and context and shopping on the internet rather than stressing out at a potentially virus ridden panic stricken supermarket know. 

Again i am in your camp about most things on this subject T,  though maybe daily update tables for all other forms of death may be a bit much, but i understand why you wrote that and the reasoning behind it  😉 For what its worth on a personal level i lost my mom just over a year ago from Cancer of the Bowel, she was 85, and a few weeks ago lost my mom in law from Pneumonia, aged 86. Im sure most of us can relate such personal experiences concerning death related disease and illness  to family and friends. Coronavirus is just the latest disease thats nasty and prevalent and its making headlines because its new and highly contagious, but there's a stack of other diseases that are contagious and death dealing that are just as nasty and i did not stockpile for those.

As a sidenote, looking Europe wide, i do believe Slovakia, Serbia, Bulgaria, Albania, Malta and Cyprus are the sole surviving  places left with as yet no confirmed cases. Also pretty amazed that Turkey, for its size, has  not yet declared any confirmed  case.

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1 hour ago, Essjayess said:

Also pretty amazed that Turkey, for its size, has  not yet declared any confirmed  case.

Or North Korea.

It raises the question, was Kim Jong Ill?🤔

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Some extremly interesting updates from Dr John Campbell re the two different types and possible encouraging news.

 

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Every one is going over the top with this virus, it's not as bad as flu and because we have a vaccine no one bothers about it. The vaccine for the coronavirus will come.

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12 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

Every one is going over the top with this virus, it's not as bad as flu and because we have a vaccine no one bothers about it. The vaccine for the coronavirus will come.

The figure percentage from the WHO of 3.4% mortality rate estimate and the actual death rate from the 57,000 recovered / died closed cases of 6% suggest it is worse than flu Swindon. Nevertheless, the UK has 115 cases and will of course rise much higher, but yes, we should be aware and educated but not scared or stockpiling.

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An Australian newspaper printed extra pages to help with the toilet paper shortage. 🤣

I'll make no comment on the British newspapers. 

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43 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

Every one is going over the top with this virus, it's not as bad as flu and because we have a vaccine no one bothers about it. The vaccine for the coronavirus will come.

Oh dear.

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So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 89,000 illnesses and 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 32 million illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

So far, the new coronavirus has led to more than 89,000 illnesses and 3,000 deaths worldwide. But that's nothing compared with the flu, also called influenza. In the U.S. alone, the flu has caused an estimated 32 million illnesses, 310,000 hospitalizations and 18,000 deaths this season, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 

I’m sure the relevant people in world governments are aware of these statistics and they are certainly concerned enough with covid 19 to act in a manner which is unprecedented. I’ll leave you to make your own conclusions on why that is but I’d say they are incredibly concerned by this virus, wouldn’t you? 

Edited by JF

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looks like Dr Juthani agrees with me.

The first and most major difference between the flu and novel coronavirus, is how little we know about the latter—which plays into into the absence of treatment and vaccines for COVID-19. "People often compare the flu to COVID-19, but we have a vaccine to prevent and medications to treat the flu. Right now, we have no medications or vaccine for COVID-19," says Dr. Juthani.

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Posted (edited)
41 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

looks like Dr Juthani agrees with me.

The first and most major difference between the flu and novel coronavirus, is how little we know about the latter—which plays into into the absence of treatment and vaccines for COVID-19. "People often compare the flu to COVID-19, but we have a vaccine to prevent and medications to treat the flu. Right now, we have no medications or vaccine for COVID-19," says Dr. Juthani.

Dear God, you seriously need to educate yourself Swindon.

Unlike flu nobody has immunity.

Even at the lowest estimates it is two to three times as contagious and possibly twenty times more lethal.

Only .02 flu victims require hospitalisation, up to 15 percent of covid 19 patients need it with 8 percent in ICU.

Italy now has 148 deaths with 350 others serious or critical.

Entire economies have never shut down because of flu before.

OPEN YOUR EYES.

alert.png 769 new cases and 41 new deaths in Italy, which becomes the country with the largest daily increase in cases and deaths in the world. [source]
Among the 3,296 active cases, 1,790 (54%) are hospitalized, 331 of which (representing 11% of active cases) are in intensive care.
Among the 562 closed cases, 414 (74%) have recovered, 148 (26%) have died.

 

Edited by ricardo

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First U.K death confirmed 

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With approximately 100,000 CoronaVirus cases worldwide, and 3,280 deaths, the United States, because of quick action on closing our borders, has, as of now, only 129 cases (40 Americans brought in) and 11 deaths. We are working very hard to keep these numbers as low as possible!

 
49.4K
 
I don't know who is advising Trump on this but he is totally deluded. Once they start testing they are going to find thousands of cases and the $hit will hit the fan
.
He is sinking his re-election chances with every stupid tweet.

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For goodness sake Swindon. The same amount of people who die from Influenza are still dying. The Covid 19 strain is on top of this. I have never had influenza in my life but the odds of me contracting SARS or Covid 19 are three times greater,

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i wish people would educate themselves on every important subject. The populist view of the world that they know better than the experts with experience and qualifications is a very dangerous set of views that government has supported for their own political desires. At least the UK does not appear to playing this game on this subject like the US. 
 

The death rate on confirmed cases is 3.4px but actually 0.7pc outsiide Wuhan which is a bad flu season. The UK is currently expecting a 1pc death rate.
 

The WHO is saying less infectious than flu. The number of cases in China compared to the popularity is very small but after strict controls  

 

But there are no treatment and no vaccine yet ard while most cases are mild there are a high percentage of cases needing hopilat treatment. The UK has more or less admitted that they will not be able to cope with the number of cases needing hospitalisation at the peak.
 

Furthermore a significant number of people who die are old and seriously ill so you can not simply say these are additional deaths because it could be this or something else that people die of when they are old and ill and as far as I know we only die once. 
 

So the reality is that will probably lie between flu and the worst case scenario but still early days. 

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Posted (edited)

Data points  : So to be fair to President Trump, one of his comments yesterday that appeared to be the most shocking - the mortality rate isn't 3.4% may prove to be true for an advanced medical system country - we will still have to see about that in the US because we have no universal medical coverage and a significant uninsured population, plus an obvious politically motivated coverup. But the other less shocking comment is actually much worse - just go to work, it's a very mild disease. 

Caaes.jpg

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Edited by Surfer
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The experts have also warned against irresponsible scaremongering on social media such as exaggerating the impact and encouraging irrational stockpiling. I fully agree with the comment about people needing to educate themselves rather than thinking they are the experts. 

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Only South Korea has managed to keep it's mortality rate low, but there's a reason for that - After the MERS outbreak in 2015 the country created a system to allow rapid approval of testing kits for viruses which have the potential to cause pandemics.

South Korea has and is testing hundreds of thousands of people on a daily basis. It's become a way of life and is nipping the infection in the bud, isolating people and giving people with severe cases proper care from the start rather than waiting until they are at death's door. 

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1 hour ago, SwindonCanary said:

Only South Korea has managed to keep it's mortality rate low, but there's a reason for that - After the MERS outbreak in 2015 the country created a system to allow rapid approval of testing kits for viruses which have the potential to cause pandemics.

South Korea has and is testing hundreds of thousands of people on a daily basis. It's become a way of life and is nipping the infection in the bud, isolating people and giving people with severe cases proper care from the start rather than waiting until they are at death's door. 

Where did you copy and paste that from Swindo?

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Light blue touch paper and retire.

We are on the verge of the explosion.

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, Hoola Han Solo said:

Where did you copy and paste that from Swindon?

The TIMES Newspaper

Edited by SwindonCanary
people who can't spell swindon
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This virus varies a lot from nation to nation, the number of factors as to why are many im sure. Germany for instance, once their  figures for today are released for new cases, will likely  have around 700 or 800 active cases (no deaths yet) but next door in Poland they have 1  confirmed case. If the  UK follows the course of its neighbours, then im expecting maybe 50-80 new cases today, im sure the new  figures are due out shortly.

But one thing  from the Worldometer that i particularly follow is that global active cases have not risen in around 8 days, staying  between 39-42k bracket, dependant on the time of day. Im sure that will  begin to increase again at some point, no doubt  its been helped to remain  stable due to the efforts of China in controlling their  amount of infection.

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23 hours ago, ricardo said:

Or North Korea.

It raises the question, was Kim Jong Ill?🤔

This has concerned me.

I always feel sorry for the totally repressed people of that country in any case.

Life seems cheaper there than anywhere else in the world (Pol Pot, Khmer Rouge style disregard for others.)

If South Korea is anything to go by there may be similar in the North.The only mitigating factor is that the populace as a whole travel very little and outsiders are restricted.

The rest of the world is toothless as long as the regime is backed up by China, for whatever reason. It does however suggest that many Chinese might travel there for one reason or another.

 

Poor people.

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3 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

Only South Korea has managed to keep it's mortality rate low, but there's a reason for that - After the MERS outbreak in 2015 the country created a system to allow rapid approval of testing kits for viruses which have the potential to cause pandemics.

South Korea has and is testing hundreds of thousands of people on a daily basis. It's become a way of life and is nipping the infection in the bud, isolating people and giving people with severe cases proper care from the start rather than waiting until they are at death's door. 

South Korea is indeed doing those things. Is any one else? And if not why not? They have shown that it can be done without shutting down their entire economy. 

North Korea of course is doing even better, no needs for tests as NOBODY is infected there. 
 

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