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paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

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"An official at the Department of Health and Social Care confirmed on Wednesday that England had now registered Covid-19 as a “notifiable” disease — making it easier for some companies to make insurance claims. Scotland had done so several days ago. “We want to ensure any steps taken to protect the public during the Covid-19 outbreak are proportionate and do not come at an unnecessary social or economic cost,” the official said. “To mitigate the impact on businesses, we will register Covid-19 as a notifiable disease. This will help companies seek compensation through their insurance policies in the event of any cancellations they may have to make as a result of the spread of the virus.”

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Upo said:

Has this been linked here yet?

"Marc Lipsitch, an epidemiologist at Harvard University, predicts that between 40 to 70 percent of adults in the world will become infected with the coronavirus."

He cited 1-2% mortality rate for adult population with current knowledge. It is hair raising.

The reality has yet to sink in. I don't even know what to think about this, and I've been observing this closely since January. In USA, 1% mortality with 50% getting infected means well over a million excess deaths over the course of the disease. If it happens within a year, we're talking about the rate of dying in the hundreds of thousands per month towards turn of 2020/2021 (due to exponential spread weighed heavily towards late 2020, early 2021) before enough have contracted it to have created sufficient herd immunity to slow the spread and turning the disease into more endemic localized outbreaks.

We can do our part by being extremely dutiful and vigilant in hand sanitizing, washing hands with soap, being responsible in where and how much you move, self-guaranteening if you suspect you got it (2 weeks is probably too short, go for 3 weeks to be sure) etc. 

We're going to lose a lot of old folks over this. A family might have 4 grandparents into their 70s, some with significant health problem. That's more than 50% chance overall for losing atleast one of them. They're also uncles, aunts, sisters of your relatives. Every family will have its share of tragedy.  

It's not about the 0.2% mortality for the working age people. It is about the 10 to 20% mortality rate for your grandmom. I know there are many elderly people on this forum too. It is horribly dangerous for many people you love and care about. Get informed. Be responsible. Act accordingly.

The figures I have seen show worst case 80pc infected of which only about half show systems and the death rate applies to those that show symptoms so reduced by a factor of 50pc Obviously still not good. 

Edited by T

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Of course I think the elderly should be cared for. I’m fact I think you will find that I’m the only person who has said that I think for example that brexit should be postponed to focus the time and money on caring for the elderly so quite the opposite. 
 

im only reporting the views of the younger generation. The majority of the people that I work with are in their twenties and they are simply carrying on as before with no mention whatsoever of Covid 19. The social media posts I’ve seen from young people I know highlight all the other problems in the world that people generally show limited concern for. There are higher mortality rates in large parts of the world all the time with limited action taken. And yes it is a generalisation but there is a lot of young people who feel that the older generation don’t care about them eg the Fridays for future movement   There is one person other than Delia who is known globally by their first name  It is a general perception but people tend to care more for people they feel care for them  

And yes clinical economic and government decisions are made all the time by reference to age as we saw from the UK government yesterday That is just the way it is whether people like it or not because of their particular circumstances 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, T said:

Of course I think the elderly should be cared for. I’m fact I think you will find that I’m the only person who has said that I think for example that brexit should be postponed to focus the time and money on caring for the elderly so quite the opposite. 
 

im only reporting the views of the younger generation. The majority of the people that I work with are in their twenties and they are simply carrying on as before with no mention whatsoever of Covid 19. The social media posts I’ve seen from young people I know highlight all the other problems in the world that people generally show limited concern for. There are higher mortality rates in large parts of the world all the time with limited action taken. And yes it is a generalisation but there is a lot of young people who feel that the older generation don’t care about them eg the Fridays for future movement   There is one person other than Delia who is known globally by their first name  It is a general perception but people tend to care more for people they feel care for them  

And yes clinical economic and government decisions are made all the time by reference to age as we saw from the UK government yesterday That is just the way it is whether people like it or not because of their particular circumstances 

 

 

So this is the ultimate 'cancelling' of anyone that doesn't share a certain ideology that seems to flourish within social media but is less relevant in real life. That's a horrendous world you're constructing right there, T. With a lot of unplanned consequences.

Edited by Rock The Boat

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Supermarket watch, today.

Waitrose Eaton,

Sainsburys Queens Rd

Noticeable how almost everyone coming out with toilet rolls, tissues and cleaning materials. Shelves half full.

As always DYOR.

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1 hour ago, T said:

The figures I have seen show worst case 80pc infected of which only about half show systems and the death rate applies to those that show symptoms so reduced by a factor of 50pc Obviously still not good. 

There is uncertainty in the details, but we are not talking about 0.1% to 10%. It's more like 0.5% to 3%. Probably closer to lower range. If health care system becomes seriously strained, then closer to mid range. In disaster scenario where you run out of respirators, staff and face masks (Wuhan) it is reasonable to expect 3% mortality. Epidemiologists are talking about 1-2% overall. They have taken into account asymptomatic undiagnosed cases in their calculations.

It is not good at all, I agree.

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Posted (edited)

Sometimes you have to have a dark sense of gallows humour.

Look at the positives.

House of Lords will be severely reduced in size and with it those expenses.

I could go on.....

 

Edited by Yellow Fever

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7 minutes ago, Upo said:

There is uncertainty in the details, but we are not talking about 0.1% to 10%. It's more like 0.5% to 3%. Probably closer to lower range. If health care system becomes seriously strained, then closer to mid range. In disaster scenario where you run out of respirators, staff and face masks (Wuhan) it is reasonable to expect 3% mortality. Epidemiologists are talking about 1-2% overall. They have taken into account asymptomatic undiagnosed cases in their calculations.

It is not good at all, I agree.

You have not seen what the WHO are saying then?

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23 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Sometimes you have to have a dark sense of gallows humour.

Look at the positives.

House of Lords will be severely reduced in size and with it those expenses.

I could go on.....

 

I’d like to know how many tonnes of CO2 have been withheld from the atmosphere by the shut down in China. More than the U.K. output for 12 months?

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Now 85 cases today (+34 ?)

Sorry to say Johnson and his chums have failed at the first real test requiring tough decisions.

Too timid to act decisively and get 'ahead' of the curve.

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Supermarket watch, today.

Waitrose Eaton,

Sainsburys Queens Rd

Noticeable how almost everyone coming out with toilet rolls, tissues and cleaning materials. Shelves half full.

As always DYOR.

Does it give you the trots? Hope not. If you sneeze a lot it could be pebble dashing time.

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Posted (edited)
7 hours ago, T said:

Just facts. That all deaths in Italy to date have been of old people with serious illnesses   Governments, medical experts and the economy and markets will make decisions relating to those and other facts.

Essentially the same story in Washington State - all the fatalities reported so far are from the same nursing home. It will change of course, but these homes still need help to minimize this issue.
 

Separate story developing about how the Trump administration’s guidance on Medicaid and ACA regulations have been working to undo basic healthcare provisions, like reducing what tests qualify for insurance coverage, lowering what medical standards must be applied to nursing homes. Always to advantage the corporate $.

Edited by Surfer

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Posted (edited)

Data:  S Korea doing some of most thorough testing. Over 5300 cases. No fatalities under 30. Very few under 50. Overall death rate among **confirmed** cases .6%. Heavy concentration of mortality over age 70.

Also better to be female .... that’s often so.

9E3BE518-3FED-4541-921C-86BA5ED00253.png

Edited by Surfer

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21 minutes ago, Surfer said:

 

Also better to be female .... that’s often so.

 

Raise a cheer for gender fluidity.

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I leave my 3rd strip shirt to . . . . . . .

I leave my Programmes to  . . . . . . . . . 

I leave my signed football to . . . . . . . 

 

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2 hours ago, Van wink said:

I’d like to know how many tonnes of CO2 have been withheld from the atmosphere by the shut down in China. More than the U.K. output for 12 months?

Somebody posted on twitter some charts showing pollution levels in Wuhan before and after the coronavirus scare.  I doubt I can find them now but the difference was massive, from one end of the scale to the other.

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The Spanish flu epidemic that killed an estimated 50 million a century ago is a well known event thats been bandied about much recently. Last night on the BBC OS program at 9pm they mentioned two other  bit more recent  outbreaks / epidemics, both flu variations with a titled name linked to origin, one in 1957/58 and the other in 1969. Both were estimated to have resulted in 1-4 million deaths globally.

So global disease outbreaks of this kind are nothing new and follow the natural trend of most deaths  occur in the elderley and those with underlying and existing illness issues. What makes this one different is that of course its a new strain of virus and there unknowns about, and yet there are still many unknowns to do with various strains of flu to. Also a factor is that its occuring in the digital age, where we can pretty much see a near as  can be accurate and up to date running table of infected, recovered, deaths etc, which is both a good and bad thing, i will leave it to the individual to assess what they deem of the situation.

So sure, it will spread here as elsewhere, how many readers of this forum and their familys and friends get infected is just impossible to say. Its gonna rock most things  that we treat as normal daily activities sure, but it will reach a peak then taper off. Humans can be fragile, open and accessible to especially new forms of viruses, but also adaptable and resilient over a period of time to them. Stay healthy everyone, bumpy road ahead, but the suspension will get thru it.

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28 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

The Spanish flu epidemic that killed an estimated 50 million a century ago is a well known event thats been bandied about much recently. Last night on the BBC OS program at 9pm they mentioned two other  bit more recent  outbreaks / epidemics, both flu variations with a titled name linked to origin, one in 1957/58 and the other in 1969. Both were estimated to have resulted in 1-4 million deaths globally.

So global disease outbreaks of this kind are nothing new and follow the natural trend of most deaths  occur in the elderley and those with underlying and existing illness issues. What makes this one different is that of course its a new strain of virus and there unknowns about, and yet there are still many unknowns to do with various strains of flu to. Also a factor is that its occuring in the digital age, where we can pretty much see a near as  can be accurate and up to date running table of infected, recovered, deaths etc, which is both a good and bad thing, i will leave it to the individual to assess what they deem of the situation.

So sure, it will spread here as elsewhere, how many readers of this forum and their familys and friends get infected is just impossible to say. Its gonna rock most things  that we treat as normal daily activities sure, but it will reach a peak then taper off. Humans can be fragile, open and accessible to especially new forms of viruses, but also adaptable and resilient over a period of time to them. Stay healthy everyone, bumpy road ahead, but the suspension will get thru it.

Globalisation makes a huge difference to the speed of spread. There are number of big unknowns atm, the mode of infection, ie there is evidence that the virus is not just respiratory tract but also found in the gut, meaning fecal oral spread is also possible. Another  big unknown, we will have to wait and see, is whether the virus will mutate. We are still not sure about incubation time but that is narrowing from to between 5 and 14 days: will it be killed off in the warm weather: can reinfection occur, is it related in any way to Donald Trump?

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1 hour ago, Rock The Boat said:

Somebody posted on twitter some charts showing pollution levels in Wuhan before and after the coronavirus scare.  I doubt I can find them now but the difference was massive, from one end of the scale to the other.

Nice to know their last breaths are with cleaner air.

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Posted (edited)

Well there's an answer to one of my questions, and a very worrying one at that. I wonder what the Chinese knew? Might also explain why people seem to have been reinfected, poor sods.

"Coronavirus has mutated into two strains, one which appears to be far more aggressive, scientists have said, in a discovery which could hinder attempts to develop a vaccine".

 

Edited by Van wink

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Search:
 
Country,
Other
Total
Cases
New
Cases
Total
Deaths
New
Deaths
Active
Cases
Total
Recovered
Serious,
Critical
China 80,282 +131 2,981 +38 27,301 50,000 6,416
S. Korea 5,621 +435 35 +3 5,545 41 27
Italy 3,089 +587 107 +28 2,706 276 295
Iran 2,922 +586 92 +15 2,278 552  

 

Italy and Iran continue to explode.

The rest of Europe probably a week behind.

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Drumpf showing his clear leadership skills by blaming the Obama admin. Stay classy.

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Posted (edited)

I wonder if the 'less aggressive' S type would form a pseudo vaccine against the L type. A mild cold vs the full works.  Just a thought.

Edited by Yellow Fever
I hope the Canaries are in an L type mode tonight though

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Edited 11 minutes ago by Yellow Fever 
I hope the Canaries are in an L type mode tonight though

👍

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https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20200304-coronavirus-covid-19-update-why-people-are-stockpiling

Apparently those who are panic buying need  psychological help :-) Really doing something constructive or trying to feed their anxiety sounds about right  There is being prepared and being scared which is not helpful  

Perlapy we could also have daily updates on here of cases and deaths of flu and every other condition by country.? Being aware and following medical advice is of course a good idea but obsession and paranoia are not recommended by experts as they are mentally unhealthy.  We are all going to die of something sometime so you might as well enjoy it while you can rather than obsessing and worrying about things you can not control otherwise these will have a detrimental effect on your life. But what would the experts who recommend perspective and context and shopping on the internet rather than stressing out at a potentially virus ridden panic stricken supermarket know. 

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11 hours ago, Van wink said:

Well there's an answer to one of my questions, and a very worrying one at that. I wonder what the Chinese knew? Might also explain why people seem to have been reinfected, poor sods.

"Coronavirus has mutated into two strains, one which appears to be far more aggressive, scientists have said, in a discovery which could hinder attempts to develop a vaccine".

 

Apparently this may have happened some time ago, their research showed two strains in the Chinese population they were investigating, so what we have now IS the more dangerous version. 

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This was reported at least two weeks ago on a news bulletin. And I hadn't seen or heard anything since until these posts. So I wasn't imagining it.

it wasn't many years ago when health officials were reporting that we were running out of antibiotics to combat viruses, one reason being mutation.

If this particular one is capable of adapting, then who is to say warmer weather will kill it.

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My Grandson's girlfriend is a Nurse at Treliske Hospital, the biggest in Cornwall, in Truro, has just text him that they have had a suspected Covid 19 case, yet to be confirmed.

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UK chief medical advisor says community transmission highly likely. 

We now move from containment to delay.

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