T 190 Posted March 25, 2020 I’d like to think it is right but it is just a model and no evidence to support it. The imperial college professor thinks it is unlikely based on the testing in Italy but we will only really know when they do anti body testing which should hopefully come shortly Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted March 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, T said: I’d like to think it is right but it is just a model and no evidence to support it. The imperial college professor thinks it is unlikely based on the testing in Italy but we will only really know when they do anti body testing which should hopefully come shortly It is just a model, but all this is based on modelling with very little evidence base. The Oxford study assumes that the virus has been freely circulation within the UK since January, I've no idea how that theory has evolved, I would have expected to see a much higher rate of hospitalised cases by now if that were the case, but who knows. Is it possible that the virus, for some reason, is more virulent, or has a more sever clinical response in Italy and Spain? I guess we will find out shortly. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
T 190 Posted March 25, 2020 It is simple maths. The virus was reported at end of December. It would have circulated before then and given extent of trade with China then entirely possible was in UK at end of December. Therefore in UK for 85 days. It muliplies 2.5 to 3 times every 5 days so multiplied by factor of say 2.75 every 5 days. That’s half the population. End of Jan in UK at current estimated 3 RO would give 177k cases currently in the UK We don’t when started though and need more testing to know how may with no or mild symptoms Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,747 Posted March 25, 2020 I thought the government a few weeks ago was doing some random testing in a few spots to identify exactly this i.e. a rough idea off the true infection spread. I've always assumed its where the 10 to 20 x come from. If it was really x 100 I think we'd all know by now. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
T 190 Posted March 25, 2020 Ferguson was not convinced. He reckons RO of 3 and first reported case end of Jan gives the 177k. The Oxford numbers not supported by sample testing in Italy. China and these numbers do suggest that a lot of people though don’t get infected, have no symptoms or only mild symptoms. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159 Posted March 25, 2020 On 24/03/2020 at 12:48, Essjayess said: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14 This has been linked quite a few times in this topic. Its the official Public Health England stats and updated once daily. Thanks for quoting twiddle dee. If they would have looked for solutions, there are plenty around, but they are more concerned with a cull than with the nation. https://healthpolicy.fsi.stanford.edu/news/how-taiwan-used-big-data-transparency-central-command-protect-its-people-coronavirus?fbclid=IwAR1r0MNRn-GpicROg_V0Yk8P7nr4JkZ2zd4ZXlh5bScX_1T0Fl3TM_OuyeQ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,747 Posted March 25, 2020 2 hours ago, Van wink said: It is just a model, but all this is based on modelling with very little evidence base. The Oxford study assumes that the virus has been freely circulation within the UK since January, I've no idea how that theory has evolved, I would have expected to see a much higher rate of hospitalised cases by now if that were the case, but who knows. Is it possible that the virus, for some reason, is more virulent, or has a more sever clinical response in Italy and Spain? I guess we will find out shortly. I actually think the media as ever is running away with a 1/2 story as it sounds good (and could dangerously mislead the gullible)! The Oxford professors/group don't believe it either - it's just one extreme they identify that 'could' fit the known limited facts with some truly heroic assumptions (although I think that the number of asymptomatic cases identified in Italy or indeed the UK would give the lie to this thesis). By far the simplest is that it's 10x to 20 times bigger than we have 'identified' with a mortality of circa 1% predominantly in the elderly. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted March 25, 2020 9 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said: I actually think the media as ever is running away with a 1/2 story as it sounds good (and could dangerously mislead the gullible)! The Oxford professors/group don't believe it either - it's just one extreme they identify that 'could' fit the known limited facts with some truly heroic assumptions (although I think that the number of asymptomatic cases identified in Italy or indeed the UK would give the lie to this thesis). By far the simplest is that it's 10x to 20 times bigger than we have 'identified' with a mortality of circa 1% predominantly in the elderly. There seems to be a story emerging about a cover up at The Austrian ski resort so things could have actually kicked off in Europe earlier than was thought Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Essjayess 307 Posted March 25, 2020 (edited) Well one surprising thing from today, perhaps just one of those daily blips....new deaths today... Netherlands +80, Belgium +56, Germany +47, UK +43. Ithink thats the first day that Germany has had more than the UK. Also, 4 days now after that same time deaths of 233 from Italy and UK. the Italy total stood at 827 and today the UK totalled 463. Clearly the Italy death was rising much faster. Edited March 25, 2020 by Essjayess added words Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,747 Posted March 25, 2020 17 minutes ago, Van wink said: There seems to be a story emerging about a cover up at The Austrian ski resort so things could have actually kicked off in Europe earlier than was thought Wasn't there some thought (likely not true) that the 'Italian' centre was actually a derivative of Austria / Bavaria ? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
T 190 Posted March 25, 2020 Ferguson was not convinced. He reckons RO of 3 and first reported case end of Jan gives the 177k. The Oxford numbers not supported by sample testing in Italy. China and these numbers do suggest that a lot of people though don’t get infected, have no symptoms or only mild symptoms. The Austrian ski resort story is a few weeks old. In fact there was a number of cases traced back to bars and restaurants in various ski resorts as you have a lot of people together in confined spaces at a peak holiday season which facilitated the spread. The case goes back to before it really escalated and people were less aware. However by this stage it was just spreading anyway. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted March 25, 2020 https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/coronavirus-germany-cases-death-toll-italy-spain-bavaria-lockdown-a9424591.html interesting thoughts on why German death rate is lower, younger age profile of victims? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted March 25, 2020 2 minutes ago, T said: Ferguson was not convinced. He reckons RO of 3 and first reported case end of Jan gives the 177k. The Oxford numbers not supported by sample testing in Italy. China and these numbers do suggest that a lot of people though don’t get infected, have no symptoms or only mild symptoms. The Austrian ski resort story is a few weeks old. In fact there was a number of cases traced back to bars and restaurants in various ski resorts as you have a lot of people together in confined spaces at a peak holiday season which facilitated the spread. The case goes back to before it really escalated and people were less aware. However by this stage it was just spreading anyway. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/uk-patient-zero-east-sussex-family-may-have-infected-coronavirus/ Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
T 190 Posted March 25, 2020 Younger age as a lot of people coming back from ski holidays then. More testing and tracing. More healthcare capacity. More compliance with social distancing They will still struggle with peak but ultimately you pay your taxes and take your choice. More taxes and more healthcare or less taxes and less healthcare. Ultimately that simple. It was what the UK voted for. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Essjayess 307 Posted March 25, 2020 (edited) WHO had a mortality rate of about 3%...but even if we go along with the UK CMO of 1% mortality...work out 1% from 33 million...thats why the Oxford Projecion is way out. Local confirmed cases as of today...Norfolk +3 to 45, Suffolk +13 to 35. Edited March 25, 2020 by Essjayess spelling correction Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted March 25, 2020 (edited) Italy’s healthcare system is one of the best in the world Edited March 25, 2020 by Van wink Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
T 190 Posted March 25, 2020 Interesting Telegraph article VW. An earlier start would suggest a lot more people have been infected in UK with no or mild symptoms but varies from 370k to 4.7m now infected depending on RO between 2.5 and 3.0. Bottom line conclusion is we will only know when there is more general testing. The Oxford figure is just a theoretical highest case number if started in UK at start of Jan and 2.75 RO It doesn’t mean the model is bad but as I always see in work the reporting is misleading which is why always best to go back to source info. The UK model is a best guess based on the available data but given the limited data no one really knows how this will develop. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,713 Posted March 25, 2020 On 24/03/2020 at 17:26, Herman said: There seems to be a bit of a twatoff between two of Britain's richest men today. Mike Ashley was well in the lead this morning then Tim Wetherspoon decided to take over. Whereas Brexitty Sir Jim Ratcliffe has fallen completely off the tw@ chart by doing something with his wealth that will benefit the whole country. Well done Ineos.👍 James Dyson and his company has stepped up and quickly designed and built and new ventilator. Well done. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,491 Posted March 25, 2020 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Herman said: James Dyson and his company has stepped up and quickly designed and built and new ventilator. Well done. It's positive Herman but hearing Newsnight this evening I'm not convinced (certainly Emily Maitlis wasn't) that they will arrive on time. Edited March 25, 2020 by sonyc Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
T 190 Posted March 26, 2020 Dyson is a strange one. Given the head to me seems to make more sense to work with expert staff ng companies to expand production of existing tested designs 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,491 Posted March 26, 2020 35 minutes ago, T said: Dyson is a strange one. Given the head to me seems to make more sense to work with expert staff ng companies to expand production of existing tested designs Think Dyson had been a party donor in the past. Not that this factor may have been important. It's the timing that is odd given that other existing manufacturers (had one on Newsnight) were ready weeks ago but government passed over them. It's damning .... especially in such a national crisis. Dyson also needs to test the prototypes too. That was the story which was given a long feature. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Yellow Fever 3,747 Posted March 26, 2020 9 minutes ago, sonyc said: Think Dyson had been a party donor in the past. Not that this factor may have been important. It's the timing that is odd given that other existing manufacturers (had one on Newsnight) were ready weeks ago but government passed over them. It's damning .... especially in such a national crisis. Dyson also needs to test the prototypes too. That was the story which was given a long feature. Nothing against Dyson - but today isn't the day to buy untested new designs / prototypes when we need something that'll work in two weeks! 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
T 190 Posted March 26, 2020 Building up new longer term alternative capacity may well be a good idea but it is somewhat reminiscent of buying ferry capacity from a company without any ferries 1 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 814 Posted March 26, 2020 2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said: Nothing against Dyson - but today isn't the day to buy untested new designs / prototypes when we need something that'll work in two weeks! As far as I know we are not just doing this. Existing manufacturers have been ask to produce more and work with larger companies so that existing designs can be produced in mass. The Dyson contract would complement these bit is not seen as an alternative. Seems like a sensible plan to me Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted March 26, 2020 11 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said: As far as I know we are not just doing this. Existing manufacturers have been ask to produce more and work with larger companies so that existing designs can be produced in mass. The Dyson contract would complement these bit is not seen as an alternative. Seems like a sensible plan to me From what I have heard I think that’s right. There are multiple orders but I guess we can never be sure how many of those will be fulfilled. The Dyson order is in addition to other orders placed and includes some units to be supplied to other countries I believe. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,491 Posted March 26, 2020 Sharing Preston's latest communication. Interesting thread. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surfer 1,547 Posted March 26, 2020 14 hours ago, Herman said: James Dyson and his company has stepped up and quickly designed and built and new ventilator. Well done. Reference that Preston post. Sounds like the "designed" claim may not be true. Built from an existing design given to them, and not yet approved may be closer to the mark. But whatever it takes to get the ventilators built .... so long as "names" don't get prioritized inappropriately is good in my book. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,713 Posted March 26, 2020 Even positive stories have to be double and treble checked now. Ho hum. Apologies for getting ahead of things. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 814 Posted March 26, 2020 Looking objectively at this dyson appears to be an ideal company to have involved. A ventilator seems to me to be at heart an electric motor in a plastic housing g that is used to move air around tubes. It doesnt seem to be much different to a vacuum. It is largely British based with british manufacturing capability so no over reliance on difficult trade routes. The Brexit link that a lot are keen to emphasise is entirely secondary in my opinion. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites