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paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

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I have just posted on the other Virus thread that four have died of the Virus in Treliske Hospital in Cornwall. That is four from nowhere. That is a big jump and the Hospital also has had an outbreak of Noro Virus. My Grandson's Girlfriend's Ward will now be the end of life ward for everyone. There are already several elderly there dying from the seasonal Flu as well.

Having seen the IC Unit in an Italian Hospital with its individual oxygen helmets so the patients don't need masks and the equipment and clothing the staff have, I do believe Hospitals in the UK will not cope with a major worsening.

So for all those silly beggars who think pubs etc should stay open or that we are better to get it and move on, I say think again.

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37 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Looking at all the stats (and graphs especially .. the FT one is the best I've come across as it shows the curves of countries compared to each other) and I'm convinced we have a national catastrophe coming (breaking between 3/4 and 6/4) in that at this point our NHS will not be able to cope. I've 'simply' arrived at this conclusion by forwarding the expected daily numbers on the same trajectory as now. And I'm assuming of course like Italy and Germany we won't be able to lock ourselves down as people will always wish to break out if it such is our feeling of a right to our liberty. I may be wrong of course.

 

But please bear with me. Just do your own maths on this. By the last day of March (10 days) we would have c.80,000 cases. Just following the existing curve. By 6th April it could be 320,000 cases and even before this the numbers of death (ITU) will be in the 20,000s (because death rates are following the same trajectory). It's scary. 

By the 19th April (or thereabouts) live numbers could be 5m though I'm unconvinced we have the testing capacity to verify. I believe though, as scientists have suggested a x10 or even a x20 factor in REAL live cases (so many of whom may be mild or asymptomatic and are not confirmed) then the peak will have been reached by then ( we only have a population of 65m or so) and we will see a solid downturn in numbers thereafter. The after effects though will ripple right on for months. Maybe this is the herd immunity the scientists have talked about (in that we can only suppress but not stop this). 

I think you’ve got to remember that many of the symptoms don’t show for five days or so. The main call from the government for people to work from home was only on Monday night so we’ve only had five clear  days of many people working from home. Now the pubs etc are shut too and hopefully people are starting to see the seriousness, we’ll see more “quarantine” and social distancing. To that extent hopefully in a week or so the numbers will start to slow down a bit. Your own curve (based on figures in your post above) will slow down as it’s still currently based on people who probably caught the virus before the social distancing measures really started at all.

The paper from government advisors saying 500,000 deaths in the Uk in twelve months was based on a model of us “doing nothing” and on a higher death rate percentage that what is already believed to be the case. A couple of weeks ago the mortality rate was said to be 6 percent. That has dropped to 3 per cent and now is (by most reckonings) down to around 1 per cent. In reality it’s probably lower than that - you have to remember that many (probably the majority) of people who have had the illness in the Uk so far wont have been tested because it will just seem like a normal bout of flu (or even just a snuffle and a cough). So the death rate figures being mentioned currently are probably higher than the actual figures - this is a new virus so we don’t have the stats obtained over years of testing to be able to say for certain.

Hopefully if the social distancing measures can now be taken seriously, those in high risk categories in particular isolate themselves completely, and if the mortality rate isn’t as high as we heard a while back, then the figures will be lower than suggested.

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That’s not to say there won’t be a ‘crisis’ though. The NHS was already creaking. I’m just hopeful that it won’t be quite as bad as it could be.

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4 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I think you’ve got to remember that many of the symptoms don’t show for five days or so. The main call from the government for people to work from home was only on Monday night so we’ve only had five clear  days of many people working from home. Now the pubs etc are shut too and hopefully people are starting to see the seriousness, we’ll see more “quarantine” and social distancing. To that extent hopefully in a week or so the numbers will start to slow down a bit. Your own curve (based on figures in your post above) will slow down as it’s still currently based on people who probably caught the virus before the social distancing measures really started at all.

The paper from government advisors saying 500,000 deaths in the Uk in twelve months was based on a model of us “doing nothing” and on a higher death rate percentage that what is already believed to be the case. A couple of weeks ago the mortality rate was said to be 6 percent. That has dropped to 3 per cent and now is (by most reckonings) down to around 1 per cent. In reality it’s probably lower than that - you have to remember that many (probably the majority) of people who have had the illness in the Uk so far wont have been tested because it will just seem like a normal bout of flu (or even just a snuffle and a cough). So the death rate figures being mentioned currently are probably higher than the actual figures - this is a new virus so we don’t have the stats obtained over years of testing to be able to say for certain.

Hopefully if the social distancing measures can now be taken seriously, those in high risk categories in particular isolate themselves completely, and if the mortality rate isn’t as high as we heard a while back, then the figures will be lower than suggested.

Yeah, I can go with that Aggy. My stats also result in a 0.89% mortality rate. And hopefully the 500k is a gross exaggeration. You hope the rates will fall IF the public observes the distancing seriously. 

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11 minutes ago, Aggy said:

That’s not to say there won’t be a ‘crisis’ though. The NHS was already creaking. I’m just hopeful that it won’t be quite as bad as it could be.

I believe we will enter a lockdown phase soon starting of course with London. It feels inevitable reading the stories of hospitals. London folk know it too as they've decamped to rural areas this weekend.

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Genuine question here - how does the testing work? 

Is the government’s advice to stay home and not go to doctors/hospital unless you’re at risk (I assume it is, and is what I’ll be doing anyway).

If I come down with flu like symptoms next week, am I supposed to be telling someone so they can send some sort of mobile testing person round? 

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4 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Genuine question here - how does the testing work? 

Is the government’s advice to stay home and not go to doctors/hospital unless you’re at risk (I assume it is, and is what I’ll be doing anyway).

If I come down with flu like symptoms next week, am I supposed to be telling someone so they can send some sort of mobile testing person round? 

You need to go online (111 NHS service) and make them aware and await advice. My understanding is that at this time you wouldn't get a test, but expected to isolate as you'd have the 'symptoms'. Indeed, the same position as NHS staff themselves who are not getting tested (yet pressure is mounting for them to be prioritised so if they don't have Covid 19 they can get back to work).

Edited by sonyc

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1 minute ago, sonyc said:

You need to go online (111 NHS service) and make them aware and await advice. My understanding is that at this time you wouldn't get a test, but expected to isolate as you'd have the 'symptoms'. Indeed, the same position as NHS staff themselves who are not getting tested (yet pressure is mounting for them to be prioritised so if they don't have Covid 19 they can get back to work).

Makes sense 👍

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The National Trust announced this week that entry to all parks and gardens would be free.

Consequently, today the local NT site to me (Croome Court) was inundated with people - the car parks were full and most of the lanes around the site were obstructed by inconsiderate visitors.  Of course the NT has a duty of care but were totally unprepared for this reaction - the worst possible given that it necessitates the herding of large numbers of people through the entrance.  So much for social distancing.

Tonight NT have announced the closure of all parks and gardens (as well as country houses already closed).  It just goes to show how everyone is learning how, and how not to, do things in a rational manner.

 

Edited by wooster

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10 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm pleased Johnson has finally stopped the pubs and clubs.

We can sadly see what is happening in Italy, Spain, France and even now the USA etc. We have fair warning. They have had (forced) to close almost everything. Why oh why are we still waiting for it to get so bad we have to do the same things here yet still playing catch up?

I would still take the hit now - shut up shop (yes nearly everything) for a month now when we have say 200,000 cases (just a guess) or do it an week to ten days when forced when we have 400,000 +

The 'hit' is inevitable - so let take it when iit will slow the virus most. Now.

Sadly YF, your view of a one month "hit" with a lockdown of nearly everything in the UK would  last for much longer than a month. China has taken 2 months of lockdown , a totalitarian state able to mobilise its  military in vast numbers and also hordes of medical staff from all other areas of China. The western nations version of lockdown and how it can be implemented is vastly differnt and definitely not as resulting  in quick time as a Chinese one, so if its taken China 2 months, you can figure in the west its more 4 to 6 months, and even then i just cannot see any western nation declaring zero home infections.

Even South Korea, generally stated by many to have controlled the spread of the virus, admit they just cannot sqweeze it away as China has done as new clusters of virus keep popping up, and are now seriously considering much more stringent measures.

Italy went into lockdown on March 9th, the daily numbers of new infected and new deaths are still increasing at an alarming rate. and just in the last 24 hours  have now resorted to more military on the streets to enforce the measures even more strongly. Coronavirus is not the flu, its not even the Spanish flu, which withered away quickly a century ago even after killing 50 million. Every nation in Europe will face the Italy situation, no matter what their preparation was, is, and will be. To, as bad as it will likely be in Europe, if its 1% of the population, thats 5 million dead, i dread and fear what South America and more, Africa, will look like after this virus sweeps thru those continents. Back to home, the UK, and nothing we can do now, even the tightest  most stringent measures possible,  give a one month hit...Its many months, likely a year, before we are able to feel any semblance of being in control of it, and even then it wont be eradicated. We all wish it would, sure.

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Agreed. This is only dealt with once it passes through the population and once iteeatments and vaccines are available. That is a consistent view. The choices are therefore shorter more severe pain or longer less severe pain. I completely understand why people are still holding onto denial and blame but there really is no good solution at the moment. 

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3 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Sadly YF, your view of a one month "hit" with a lockdown of nearly everything in the UK would  last for much longer than a month. China has taken 2 months of lockdown , a totalitarian state able to mobilise its  military in vast numbers and also hordes of medical staff from all other areas of China. The western nations version of lockdown and how it can be implemented is vastly differnt and definitely not as resulting  in quick time as a Chinese one, so if its taken China 2 months, you can figure in the west its more 4 to 6 months, and even then i just cannot see any western nation declaring zero home infections.

Even South Korea, generally stated by many to have controlled the spread of the virus, admit they just cannot sqweeze it away as China has done as new clusters of virus keep popping up, and are now seriously considering much more stringent measures.

Italy went into lockdown on March 9th, the daily numbers of new infected and new deaths are still increasing at an alarming rate. and just in the last 24 hours  have now resorted to more military on the streets to enforce the measures even more strongly. Coronavirus is not the flu, its not even the Spanish flu, which withered away quickly a century ago even after killing 50 million. Every nation in Europe will face the Italy situation, no matter what their preparation was, is, and will be. To, as bad as it will likely be in Europe, if its 1% of the population, thats 5 million dead, i dread and fear what South America and more, Africa, will look like after this virus sweeps thru those continents. Back to home, the UK, and nothing we can do now, even the tightest  most stringent measures possible,  give a one month hit...Its many months, likely a year, before we are able to feel any semblance of being in control of it, and even then it wont be eradicated. We all wish it would, sure.

Actually I disagree. 

First, a simple political point. When, in a couple of months (or is it weeks) more or less every extended family has loses the question will be asked could we of done more sooner ? We had good warning. The answer will of course be YES ! Significantly more sooner but we choose not to.

I have never said in a month we would clear the virus. But given its incubation period of approx 14 days and a true heavily enforced isolation for twice that (so that those incubating and those that then catch it new within the 28 days become visible - testing) would break the transmission chain. Yes there will still be some amongst the remaining key workers plus some others that will leak.

Your argument seems to be based on the fact that us softy westerners can't cut it. I beg to differ but it does need leadership and ruthless unpopular enforcement. 

In the northern areas of Italy that have now had the most stringent lockdown the longest I believe the virus is ebbing. It's like turning a supertanker though. There is at least a 2 week delay between any action and a discernable change.

 

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29 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 could we of done more sooner ? We had good warning. 

 

The answer is yes.

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6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The answer is yes.

You have a massive stack of "I told you so" T-shirts ready and ironed.😀

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Yes we could have invested more in health capacity. That other countries have over 4 x ICU capacity and UK is about half of other European counties.  is damming. UK is well up in  though  but capacity is no where near enough and that is recognised. 
 

The individualistic UK society also made it difficult to do anything earlier. None if this is expected to make a significant difference to how many get it so we are are only discussing when people get it. 
 

If people were really that clever at predicting the future they would have been campaigning for a less individualistic society 

Edited by T

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10 minutes ago, Herman said:

You have a massive stack of "I told you so" T-shirts ready and ironed.😀

Buy now get one half price👍

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And we will overtake Switzerland in that worldmeter table and soon the US will be at the top. 

Edited by sonyc

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18 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Sadly 'Cannon Fodder' is what comes to mind.

Fair point. Johnson distancing himself from a failed policy?

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30 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Sadly 'Cannon Fodder' is what comes to mind.

What Cummings believed and it was based on what the Chief Medical Officer had said, still holds true, but of course those words herd immunity are now dirty words. Also , to develop an actual strategy to allow herd immunity to develop while same time protecting the economy was always a huge gamble, but the government, as with every other government in the world, were facing up to its biggest challenge in generations. The facts they had were that only 1 nation on Earth had deployed lockdown, a nation that was totalitarian, had a myriad of military and medical personnel to throw at the problem and a totally obeying society, conditions that were 100% impossible to implement in any western society off the bat. So Boris had to quickly, within days, change  course and go the way of every other nation in Europe.

By adopting a complete lockdown of everything, putting military and police on the streets to curb curfew criminals, right from day one, may seem now to have been what was needed, but in reality, hardly any european nation could adopt such a thing instantly. Possibly China is one of the few nations on Earth to have the means to aggressively  bolt down the virus in the way it did.

Boris and his government, advisers etc may have shook Britain for 10 days, but even trying an impossible lockdown on the Chinese scale would have been more shaking. And its Coronavirus itself thats changed and changing this nation, the entire globe, forever. Fact is...we have no vaccine, there wont be one for a year or two, we could never do a Chinese style lockdown...there are only strategys to try and slow the spread, but ultimately, for the next year or two in most nations on Earth,  herd immunity is the only way, and Coronavirus is and will do that anyway with no fuss and bother to itself.

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37 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

What Cummings believed and it was based on what the Chief Medical Officer had said, still holds true, but of course those words herd immunity are now dirty words. Also , to develop an actual strategy to allow herd immunity to develop while same time protecting the economy was always a huge gamble, but the government, as with every other government in the world, were facing up to its biggest challenge in generations. The facts they had were that only 1 nation on Earth had deployed lockdown, a nation that was totalitarian, had a myriad of military and medical personnel to throw at the problem and a totally obeying society, conditions that were 100% impossible to implement in any western society off the bat. So Boris had to quickly, within days, change  course and go the way of every other nation in Europe.

By adopting a complete lockdown of everything, putting military and police on the streets to curb curfew criminals, right from day one, may seem now to have been what was needed, but in reality, hardly any european nation could adopt such a thing instantly. Possibly China is one of the few nations on Earth to have the means to aggressively  bolt down the virus in the way it did.

Boris and his government, advisers etc may have shook Britain for 10 days, but even trying an impossible lockdown on the Chinese scale would have been more shaking. And its Coronavirus itself thats changed and changing this nation, the entire globe, forever. Fact is...we have no vaccine, there wont be one for a year or two, we could never do a Chinese style lockdown...there are only strategys to try and slow the spread, but ultimately, for the next year or two in most nations on Earth,  herd immunity is the only way, and Coronavirus is and will do that anyway with no fuss and bother to itself.

And we dont know that the Chinese figures are remotely accurate.

President Xi has staked his reputation on this being defeated.   It's a brave official that tells him it isn't 

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47 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

What Cummings believed and it was based on what the Chief Medical Officer had said, still holds true, but of course those words herd immunity are now dirty words. Also , to develop an actual strategy to allow herd immunity to develop while same time protecting the economy was always a huge gamble, but the government, as with every other government in the world, were facing up to its biggest challenge in generations. The facts they had were that only 1 nation on Earth had deployed lockdown, a nation that was totalitarian, had a myriad of military and medical personnel to throw at the problem and a totally obeying society, conditions that were 100% impossible to implement in any western society off the bat. So Boris had to quickly, within days, change  course and go the way of every other nation in Europe.

By adopting a complete lockdown of everything, putting military and police on the streets to curb curfew criminals, right from day one, may seem now to have been what was needed, but in reality, hardly any european nation could adopt such a thing instantly. Possibly China is one of the few nations on Earth to have the means to aggressively  bolt down the virus in the way it did.

Boris and his government, advisers etc may have shook Britain for 10 days, but even trying an impossible lockdown on the Chinese scale would have been more shaking. And its Coronavirus itself thats changed and changing this nation, the entire globe, forever. Fact is...we have no vaccine, there wont be one for a year or two, we could never do a Chinese style lockdown...there are only strategys to try and slow the spread, but ultimately, for the next year or two in most nations on Earth,  herd immunity is the only way, and Coronavirus is and will do that anyway with no fuss and bother to itself.

There will be many investigations, enquiries, lessons learnt or whatever words one might wish to use, after this pandemic is over. It will be measured by death rates, economic damage (money) and bitter recriminations of political leadership and decisions made and when....

But, I think your description above Essjayess strikes a right balance.

Plus, I'm expecting numbers to fall off by the end of April, merely because a lot of people will have been infected by then should current rates of increase continue and a 'natural' herd immunity will exist within the population meaning the virus will have played itself out. Lots can happen in between of course. 

 

 

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What I'm seeing here is a lot of 'trust' in the governments policy from Ess, BB and SonyC.- yet the short take on Ess's comment - is that it indeed was a political decision not to do too much too quickly and stay behind the curve (I thought the government was trying to flatten the curve ......)!

The problem it appears with the chief 'scientists' modelling is that they assume it seems a compliant population that will do what it's told - and a well behaved virus!  Neither is true. They think (now as the game keeps changing) ) they can throttle in a stop/start mode the pandemic off and on so as to keep the numbers  < NHS saturation out to a year or more - until the 'herd' immunity (or a vaccine) leads to some population immunity. A lot of wishful thinking here. It hasn't worked elsewhere!

What we actually needed was an 'engineering' solution. Engineers when they design something are used to dealing with tolerances and items generally misbehaving - worst case. Feedback loops and compensation  / over design are what makes things, and keeps things working. No wishful thinking. The 'engineering' solution wouldn't have relied on wobbly soft  'advice' but enforcement - though will not go to to the pubs or shops a week or more ago etc. Then you can model !

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