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paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

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2 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Todays  stats in UK, +714 new cases (3983 total) 40 deaths (184 total).

Dashboard is  now saying 714  and 33 (177 total). It is of course out of date data but the death rate has fallen and the rate of new confirmed disease is broadly stable.

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5 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Dashboard is  now saying 714  and 33 (177 total). It is of course out of date data but the death rate has fallen and the rate of new confirmed disease is broadly stable.

Yes Barbe, what happens is, most days the Dashboard takes the data as it at 9am that particular day.  With the deaths total Scotland, Wales and NI sometimes deliver their death  count earlier or later  Than England's so their can  be a small difference in What the  morning Dashboard can say and what is reported on News media by the afternoon, especially the death toll. But it was 40 today with total at 184, despite what the Dashboard says for 9am.

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7 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Yes Barbe, what happens is, most days the Dashboard takes the data as it at 9am that particular day.  With the deaths total Scotland, Wales and NI sometimes deliver their death  count earlier or later  Than England's so their can  be a small difference in What the  morning Dashboard can say and what is reported on News media by the afternoon, especially the death toll. But it was 40 today with total at 184, despite what the Dashboard says for 9am.

All of this data is out of date almost straight away but the dashboard is consistent in its cut off point, allowing comparison across days.

And that comparison is mildly encouraging, in as much as 33 deaths on 24 hours can be.

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With so much glum on a topic such as this virus topic and lots of negativity from posters, i tried to find a few positives.

Boris's announcement that in the next few weeks testing capacity will reach 25,000 a day, outstripping China and even South Korea, that is  positive.

As is the thousands of engineers up and down the UK who responded to Matt Hancock's ask for more ventilators to be made. Lots will be needed of course, but the first 6 are made with many more on the way.

All the major supermarkets are advertising for thousands more staff each, yes a fair chunk temporary, but with no doubt job losses coming from the shutdown of many business ventures, im sure those  new jobs will be filled.

Im sure i can find more but they  will do for a start.

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Statement from Visit Cornwall, Friday 20th March 2020, 12.00 Noon 

Despite the lack of clarity from the Government, Visit Cornwall is advising that visitors should not come to Cornwall at this time. 

In order to slow the spread of the virus, to protect themselves, as well as the communities of Cornwall. 

We are asking people to postpone visiting Cornwall until a later date, when they will find Cornwall the same beautiful and welcoming place.

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Statement from Visit Cornwall, Friday 20th March 2020, 12.00 Noon 

Despite the lack of clarity from the Government, Visit Cornwall is advising that visitors should not come to Cornwall at this time. 

In order to slow the spread of the virus, to protect themselves, as well as the communities of Cornwall. 

We are asking people to postpone visiting Cornwall until a later date, when they will find Cornwall the same beautiful and welcoming place.

We could see all the motorhomes and caravans in the area. with up country number plates and Radio Cornwall has been discussing the problem of second home owners and visitors coming down because they will be off work for at least three months.

Our Hospital cannot cope at the best of times and luckily the number of cases is low at the moment. But if too many people start leaving cluster areas and popping down here, it will increase and locals will suffer.

This is just another sign of the arrogance of British people.

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38 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Statement from Visit Cornwall, Friday 20th March 2020, 12.00 Noon 

Despite the lack of clarity from the Government, Visit Cornwall is advising that visitors should not come to Cornwall at this time. 

In order to slow the spread of the virus, to protect themselves, as well as the communities of Cornwall. 

We are asking people to postpone visiting Cornwall until a later date, when they will find Cornwall the same beautiful and welcoming place.

We could see all the motorhomes and caravans in the area. with up country number plates and Radio Cornwall has been discussing the problem of second home owners and visitors coming down because they will be off work for at least three months.

Our Hospital cannot cope at the best of times and luckily the number of cases is low at the moment. But if too many people start leaving cluster areas and popping down here, it will increase and locals will suffer.

This is just another sign of the arrogance of British 

this will be replicated throughout Europe. It wont be peculiar to the british

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1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

Statement from Visit Cornwall, Friday 20th March 2020, 12.00 Noon 

Despite the lack of clarity from the Government, Visit Cornwall is advising that visitors should not come to Cornwall at this time. 

In order to slow the spread of the virus, to protect themselves, as well as the communities of Cornwall. 

We are asking people to postpone visiting Cornwall until a later date, when they will find Cornwall the same beautiful and welcoming place.

We could see all the motorhomes and caravans in the area. with up country number plates and Radio Cornwall has been discussing the problem of second home owners and visitors coming down because they will be off work for at least three months.

Our Hospital cannot cope at the best of times and luckily the number of cases is low at the moment. But if too many people start leaving cluster areas and popping down here, it will increase and locals will suffer.

This is just another sign of the arrogance of British people.

Fuggin Emmets......

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North Norfolk coast is full of static caravan sites. A perfect way for the virus to spread further into the area.There seems to be an attitude in the rural areas amongst some that the virus ain’t here so we are ok, sadly the virus is everywhere so please act accordingly.

Edited by Van wink

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11 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

 

Our Hospital cannot cope at the best of times and luckily the number of cases is low at the moment. But if too many people start leaving cluster areas and popping down here, it will increase and locals will suffer.

This is just another sign of the arrogance of British people.

Build a wall and make Devon pay for it.😉

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Looks like today is the day when new confirmed cases for the day is gonna rise hugely if the England total rises like the Wales total of 89 for today has. Expecting yesterday's high of 714 to be dwarfed...got to be well above 1,000..no surprise i guess when Germany is over 3k a day now and France not far behind. Still a long way from the peak considering has not even peaked yet in Italy and we are some weeks behind them.

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Nearly 800 deaths and 6500 new cases in Italy..staggering for just 1 day. No sign as yet of any lockdown affect to lessen the rise, which is increasing still daily. Must have been countless thousands in Italy who were infected but unconfirmed when the lockdown happened and i suppose , with nowhere to go, those thousands passed it on to their families. Looking like any  positive effect from a lockdown takes many weeks to come thru, especially in a region that was so badly  affected as Northern Italy was at lockdown time.

56 new deaths here, quite a jump, but not surprising really considering Belgium and Netherlands, with much smaller populations, had 30 new deaths each.

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19 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Statement from Visit Cornwall, Friday 20th March 2020, 12.00 Noon 

Despite the lack of clarity from the Government, Visit Cornwall is advising that visitors should not come to Cornwall at this time. 

In order to slow the spread of the virus, to protect themselves, as well as the communities of Cornwall. 

We are asking people to postpone visiting Cornwall until a later date, when they will find Cornwall the same beautiful and welcoming place.

We could see all the motorhomes and caravans in the area. with up country number plates and Radio Cornwall has been discussing the problem of second home owners and visitors coming down because they will be off work for at least three months.

Our Hospital cannot cope at the best of times and luckily the number of cases is low at the moment. But if too many people start leaving cluster areas and popping down here, it will increase and locals will suffer.

This is just another sign of the arrogance of British people.

Duncan Baker, MP for North Norfolk, has made what he is calling “an urgent plea” for second home owners and holiday-makers not to flock to the coast amid the Covid-19 outbreak.

In an open letter which he published on his social media platforms, Mr Baker backed the calls of fellow Conservative MP George Freeman for people to avoid holidaying in his consistency. 

In it he says: “I am fortunate to represent an incredibly beautiful constituency, which is also my home in and around the North Norfolk coast.

“However, this is an appeal - along with many, I have been increasingly concerned about the number of holiday-makers visiting North Norfolk over the last few days.

“It is vital everybody follows government guidance to slow and stop the spread of coronavirus which includes avoiding non-essential travel.

“A holiday currently is not essential and making those unnecessary trips right now must be thought carefully about. We must stop the spread of the virus and I urge everybody to please take this advice.”

Mr Baker cited the county’s elderly population and rural setting among his reasons for advising people to avoid flocking to Norfolk.

 

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8 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Nearly 800 deaths and 6500 new cases in Italy..staggering for just 1 day. No sign as yet of any lockdown affect to lessen the rise, which is increasing still daily. Must have been countless thousands in Italy who were infected but unconfirmed when the lockdown happened and i suppose , with nowhere to go, those thousands passed it on to their families. Looking like any  positive effect from a lockdown takes many weeks to come thru, especially in a region that was so badly  affected as Northern Italy was at lockdown time.

56 new deaths here, quite a jump, but not surprising really considering Belgium and Netherlands, with much smaller populations, had 30 new deaths each.

Spain moving the same way......

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4 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Spain moving the same way......

I'm pleased Johnson has finally stopped the pubs and clubs.

We can sadly see what is happening in Italy, Spain, France and even now the USA etc. We have fair warning. They have had (forced) to close almost everything. Why oh why are we still waiting for it to get so bad we have to do the same things here yet still playing catch up?

I would still take the hit now - shut up shop (yes nearly everything) for a month now when we have say 200,000 cases (just a guess) or do it an week to ten days when forced when we have 400,000 +

The 'hit' is inevitable - so let take it when iit will slow the virus most. Now.

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When the time comes for a kick off it will be generally accepted that it will be impossible to complete the season with any integrity. 

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36 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Spain moving the same way......

Ya VW, to be honest the whole of Europe is...just a question of how far behind Italy each nation is, but my guess is within 4 to 6 weeks every nation in Europe will be showing  Italy type numbers.

As was expected our new cases  are over 1,000 today so from now on in, we count new  daily confirmed in the thousands not the hundreds. Even Germany has started to see a sharp rise in daily deaths. Then after Europe its America, then a bit later South America and Africa...i fear those continents will take a frightening hammering, even more than Europe.

Ricardo is spot on to, as fans we all sit here and knew when the football organisations extended no play until April 30th it was a pointless exercise in futility...they should have there and then made it a null and void season...even putting the date back further will not change anything...personally i cannot even see the 2020-21 season happening...we are now in a lifestyle thats going to last a year at the very least.

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4 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Looks like today is the day when new confirmed cases for the day is gonna rise hugely if the England total rises like the Wales total of 89 for today has. Expecting yesterday's high of 714 to be dwarfed...got to be well above 1,000..no surprise i guess when Germany is over 3k a day now and France not far behind. Still a long way from the peak considering has not even peaked yet in Italy and we are some weeks behind 

I see several Portsmouth players have now been tested positive. 

Any idea of a restart to completion becomes more ludicrous by the day.

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Cases in Norfolk beginning to take off now, up 7 today to stand at 24 now, so take care guys, the inevitable seriousness of this virus is now taking  the hold of reality in our part of the world. I for one am trying my hardest at avoiding the Coronavirus Centrals that are the supermarket peak times crush, hoping in next week or two it returns to some semblance of normal, plus that the big food market retailers increase  online deliveries  hugely, i presume thats included in the reason for advertising for 1000s of extra staff, along with the shelf filling of course.

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cant verify the source but good advice in any event

 

"A message from one of our drs at N&N... 

Assistant Director of Nursing at QEH has said they’ve had a message today that virus seems to be spreading quickly via petrol pumps so they advise to wear gloves when filling up or use paper towel and bin straight away. Can you please pass this around anyone you know. Could make huge difference"

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50 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I see several Portsmouth players have now been tested positive. 

One of whom is Sean Raggett. Total of three players according to the reports.

Edited by Surfer

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Have been self-isolating from this forum for 24 hours or so but needed to say I've heard the same VW. And there are less petrol stations these days so traffic (literally) is busy.

But now a warning and my apologies in advance as I've been plotting some figures on what might happen ahead. 

 

Looking at all the stats (and graphs especially .. the FT one is the best I've come across as it shows the curves of countries compared to each other) and I'm convinced we have a national catastrophe coming (breaking between 3/4 and 6/4) in that at this point our NHS will not be able to cope. I've 'simply' arrived at this conclusion by forwarding the expected daily numbers on the same trajectory as now. And I'm assuming of course like Italy and Germany we won't be able to lock ourselves down as people will always wish to break out if it such is our feeling of a right to our liberty. I may be wrong of course.

 

But please bear with me. Just do your own maths on this. By the last day of March (10 days) we would have c.80,000 cases. Just following the existing curve. By 6th April it could be 320,000 cases and even before this the numbers of death (ITU) will be in the 20,000s (because death rates are following the same trajectory). It's scary. 

 

By the 19th April (or thereabouts) live numbers could be 5m though I'm unconvinced we have the testing capacity to verify. I believe though, as scientists have suggested a x10 or even a x20 factor in REAL live cases (so many of whom may be mild or asymptomatic and are not confirmed) then the peak will have been reached by then ( we only have a population of 65m or so) and we will see a solid downturn in numbers thereafter. The after effects though will ripple right on for months. Maybe this is the herd immunity the scientists have talked about (in that we can only suppress but not stop this). 

 

This analysis is just an old fart like me playing around with charts and numbers. Anyone on this forum can do their own models and the results will be about the same. 

Death rates could near 500,000 by the end of all this making this the biggest natural tragedy most of us  will have lived through. What happens between the 6th and the peak makes me feel like hibernating with my head under the covers in my room. I fear greatly and have done so ever since my first post on the subject. The Chinese experience has been amazing (though it may come back to them later). I've no idea how UK society will fare in handling this. It's a terrible thing for any national government to deal with.

Please don't post to give me grief or abuse for the sake of it (most posters don't anyway) but PLEASE disagree and explain why I am on the wrong road. That would be very welcome. I feel we must prepare ourselves for the worst. I suppose the trajectory and graph may start to flatten. Italy's experience though makes me feel it won't.

If we look at positives, then the death rate may indeed be under 1%. Also if we can do in communities like that little town in Italy did, think it's called Vo?) then we may tackle this better. 

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Thank you Ricardo. I always value your take on things. Soon you may need to do more of your hiding behind your sofa ....but not because City are winning with 20 minutes left.

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13 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Thank you Ricardo. I always value your take on things. Soon you may need to do more of your hiding behind your sofa ....but not because City are winning with 20 minutes left.

Well  Ive  had plenty of practice😉

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Your figures are certainly within the realms of possibility, after Friday night in the pubs and all the travelling that’s been going on this weekend there are going to be a lot more symptomless infected people spreading the virus next week. 

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