Wuhan coronavirus

[sonyc 5,512]

5 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Well here's a rough mix of stats from Worldometer with snippets of info that dont prove much in themselves. Tbh, apart from the now known  nations of China, S.Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Japan..thats 5 nations...the entire rest of the world has as yet, nowhere near the same stabilising or decreasing  numbers of  new cases due to many factors.

Australia...110 new cases (highest in a day) for 565 total. Level 4 travel ban...meaning travel ban applies to entire world. Government decides that Schools will stay open.

Places with first cases  are Zambia,  Montserrat,  Djibouti, New Caledonia,  Kyrgystan.

Belgium latest EU nation to go into Italy style lockdown.

Indonesia has its highest daily increase in new cases along with 12 new deaths to total 19 deaths.

Many South American nations now have cases in the 100s whereas just a week ago they had barely a handful.

Places with no. of confirmed cases per 1 million population..San Marino 3507, Faeroe Isles 1187, Iceland 733., Italy 521,  Spain 293, Germany 120, S. Korea 124, China 56, Singapore 45, UK 29, USA 20, Japan 7, India 0.1.

I believe (yet this is purely based on my feeling about reading about the US slow response in the outset stages ....it's  not based on evidence)...the US situation will overtake to become a new centre of infection given its size and federal nature. Much depends on how Europe's lockdown affect the rate of spread.

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Lots of Spaniards and Italians booking cheap getaway holidays on the Norfolk Broads.😉

is it $1.18 now (and €1.08) at present. Luckily I kept all my dollars (and not GBP). Soon be buy 1 Brexiter get 1 free!  Sorry - wrong thread. Gallows humour / mirth aside it does show how serious the situation is and the flight to less risky currencies such as the Euro, Yen and Dollar.

After this passes it's going to be whole new world.

[Essjayess 307]

3 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I believe (yet this is purely based on my feeling about reading about the US slow response in the outset stages ....it's  not based on evidence)...the US situation will overtake to become a new centre of infection given its size and federal nature. Much depends on how Europe's lockdown affect the rate of spread.

Not just USA Sonyc, central and South America and Africa are quite a way behind Europe simply because of the Italy factor, but many  people returned to those continents in the last week or two not just from Italy, but other nations like Spain and France to, so expect to see a huge explosion in those continents in next few weeks. To, we can see  how the virus has and continues to affect Europe, which has a relatively decent health care system, no doubting many South American and African nations dont have  health care systems to match Europe...that is a big big point that cannot be overlooked...Coronavirus will likely cause bigger mayhem in those places than even Europe is having.

[ricardo 7,385]

2 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Not just USA Sonyc, central and South America and Africa are quite a way behind Europe simply because of the Italy factor, but many  people returned to those continents in the last week or two not just from Italy, but other nations like Spain and France to, so expect to see a huge explosion in those continents in next few weeks. To, we can see  how the virus has and continues to affect Europe, which has a relatively decent health care system, no doubting many South American and African nations dont have  health care systems to match Europe...that is a big big point that cannot be overlooked...Coronavirus will likely cause bigger mayhem in those places than even Europe is having.

It is still not apparent if warmer weather will help, although there does seem to be a slower spread in warmer climates and those in the Southern hemisphere still in late summer.

[Surfer 1,547]

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Edited March 18, 2020 by Surfer
Deleted - wrong thread

[Essjayess 307]

10 minutes ago, ricardo said:

It is still not apparent if warmer weather will help, although there does seem to be a slower spread in warmer climates and those in the Southern hemisphere still in late summer.

Im no expert ricardo, but as i pointed out, i think Europe is in such a situation as it is simply because of the Italy factor..and we will not understand why Northern Italy was the catalyst in itself for quite a time, when the situation in Italy is  stabilised and earnest scientific and medical studies can go ahead and  try to find answers.

As the continents i mentioned are further away its  reasonable to assume that the number of Italians / tourists returning from Italy to those continents was fewer in number than Euro holidaymakers returning home to their nations, armed with the virus, but as i mentioned, those continents have already counted as many returnees  coming home with the virus that  holidayed in Spain and France as well as Italy. Dont think this virus is affected  one iota by heat or cold or seasonal temperature variations. Its simply a time lapse, it is undeniably a pandemic that will explode in those areas to before long.

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

1 minute ago, Essjayess said:

Im no expert ricardo, but as i pointed out, i think Europe is in such a situation as it is simply because of the Italy factor..and we will not understand why Northern Italy was the catalyst in itself for quite a time, when the situation in Italy is  stabilised and earnest scientific and medical studies can go ahead and  try to find answers.

As the continents i mentioned are further away its  reasonable to assume that the number of Italians / tourists returning from Italy to those continents was fewer in number than Euro holidaymakers returning home to their nations, armed with the virus, but as i mentioned, those continents have already counted as many returnees  coming home with the virus that  holidayed in Spain and France as well as Italy. Dont think this virus is affected  one iota by heat or cold or seasonal temperature variations. Its simply a time lapse, it is undeniably a pandemic that will explode in those areas to before long.

Isn't it thought that the 'Italian' situation was caused by several distinct infections (likely direct from China) in early January that grew unnoticed at first amongst other flu like general symptoms - until somebody put 2 and 2 together but by then it was well established. I think it was also thought originally to to be far less contagious than it actually is (thought originally to be less contagious than general flu but in fact much more so?). I may be wrong.

[Essjayess 307]

17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Isn't it thought that the 'Italian' situation was caused by several distinct infections (likely direct from China) in early January that grew unnoticed at first amongst other flu like general symptoms - until somebody put 2 and 2 together but by then it was well established. I think it was also thought originally to to be far less contagious than it actually is (thought originally to be less contagious than general flu but in fact much more so?). I may be wrong.

Thats the whole point right now YF...its all supposition...it needs proper and comprehensive  studies and inquiries to really understand  why...and i think Italy is far to busy right now with  handling the virus than worrying about  proper reasons  why...all in due corse as and when.

[Essjayess 307]

PM says virus testing capacity to be increased to 25,000 a day..WHO called for more testing..certainly in the UK that will be a significant  rise in testing.

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

27 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Thats the whole point right now YF...its all supposition...it needs proper and comprehensive  studies and inquiries to really understand  why...and i think Italy is far to busy right now with  handling the virus than worrying about  proper reasons  why...all in due corse as and when.

Some of this though is not supposition - yes it can be investigated further when we all have time 

[Barbe bleu 823]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

It is still not apparent if warmer weather will help, although there does seem to be a slower spread in warmer climates and those in the Southern hemisphere still in late summer.

Hopefully there is a seasonal element. I got slammed down for suggesting that Asia's initially good response might be assisted by hotter weather.

Hopefully longer, hotter, dryer days ahead might give us some respite.

 

[Barbe bleu 823]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

. I think it was also thought originally to to be far less contagious than it actually is (thought originally to be less contagious than general flu but in fact much more so?). I may be wrong.

The imperial college modelling is based on R0s of 2.0-2.4.  Ie one person spreads on average to 2-2.4 people.  H1N1 is 1.5 (according to wikipedia)  so more infectious yes but not crazy numbers.

The magic number world wide would be 0.99

[sonyc 5,512]

I've heard today of 2 people off work with symptoms and yet they've clearly not been included in the reported numbers in the area. It suggests to me the numbers experiencing/suffering the virus are under-reported. Maybe the numbers are massively under-reported. 

If you make a simple graph of daily numbers you can see the rising curve of the new cases line. It's is rising steeply at the moment. 

What we need is to hear of numbers recovered / recovering.

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

They are now but have had to change their advice after being overtaken by events. There have been plenty of studies and examples of how this has been brought under control by countries such as China, S Korea, Taiwan etc. Had you read any of these you would have been aware of asymptomatic spread and the need for 15% requiring hospitalisation wasin the public domain weeks ago.

This information has been freely available to all who cared to investigate and those that said it would be impossible to lockdown a western society in a similar manner are now going to have egg on their faces.

You can't even find eggs these days 🤣

[T 190]

Yes they have made it clear that they are only reporting tested cases which is a small proportion of the cases.

I live in a hotspot including a positive case at work and have had a new bad persistent cough for the last few days after previously this year having a cold and a precautionary flu jab but didn’t feel bad enough to bother my no doubt overworked doctor so maybe I’ve already had it and that will be the case for the majority and will never know unless an OTC test for antibodies becomes available. That will be the Reality for the majority of people. 

[Essjayess 307]

28 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I've heard today of 2 people off work with symptoms and yet they've clearly not been included in the reported numbers in the area. It suggests to me the numbers experiencing/suffering the virus are under-reported. Maybe the numbers are massively under-reported. 

If you make a simple graph of daily numbers you can see the rising curve of the new cases line. It's is rising steeply at the moment. 

What we need is to hear of numbers recovered / recovering.

The official number of recovered from confirmed cases yesterday when the  confirmed cases stood at 1,950 was 65 recovered.

[ricardo 7,385]

7 minutes ago, T said:

Yes they have made it clear that they are only reporting tested cases which is a small proportion of the cases.

I live in a hotspot including a positive case at work and have had a new bad persistent cough for the last few days after previously this year having a cold and a precautionary flu jab but didn’t feel bad enough to bother my no doubt overworked doctor so maybe I’ve already had it and that will be the case for the majority and will never know unless an OTC test for antibodies becomes available. That will be the Reality for the majority of people. 

You may have been lucky so let us hope it works out well for you.👍

All over seventies should act responsibly and stay the fcuk home so as not to put any undo pressure on the NHS.

Unfortunately I have a dental appointment so cannot avoid a trip out tomorrow.

 

 

[ricardo 7,385]

Just now, Essjayess said:

The official number of recovered from confirmed cases yesterday when the  confirmed cases stood at 1,950 was 65 recovered.

The worry is the number of asymptomatic carriers walking around and unknowingly spreading it. I expect many will have had it without knowing so this in itself will spread herd immunity which is a good thing.

[Essjayess 307]

5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The worry is the number of asymptomatic carriers walking around and unknowingly spreading it. I expect many will have had it without knowing so this in itself will spread herd immunity which is a good thing.

Well if the x10 to x20 amount who have the virus compared to confirmed cases is true then 2600 x10 is 26,000 and x20 is 52000...in which case herd immunity is rising rapidly  more each day...be that good or bad ricardo ive no idea at all. Heres the Public Health England Dashboard that is updated daily, but of course has a certain amount of time lapse. Its normally updated approx teatime or early evening' s and gives stats as they stood at 9am on that particular day.

 

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/f94c3c90da5b4e9f9a0b19484dd4bb14

[ricardo 7,385]

Schools closing  after tomorrow.

Edited March 18, 2020 by ricardo

[PurpleCanary 5,557]

On 12/03/2020 at 16:19, PurpleCanary said:

The Daily Mail is rapidly losing patience with Johnson's supposed strategy. Not a good sign for a Tory PM.

More patience lost. The Mail's updated lead, with the increase in the death rate, is a good example of how to write a story  full of facts, and giving both sides of the story, but presented in such a way that it is also an attack on a specific target - in this case on Johnson and his crisis performance so far.

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

10 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

More patience lost. The Mail's updated lead, with the increase in the death rate, is a good example of how to write a story  full of facts, and giving both sides of the story, but presented in such a way that it is also an attack on a specific target - in this case on Johnson and his crisis performance so far.

He failed to act quickly enough when there was time to be proactive - to be see to get ahead of the curve. Playing catch up like today on closing schools (when many were already shutting down by necessity) simply means he's toast. A lightning rod for everthig that follows. Irredeemable.

Pound has tanked =  $1.15 !!! (yes that dollar not Euros (€1.06) 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[PurpleCanary 5,557]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

He failed to act quickly enough when there was time to be proactive - to be see to get ahead of the curve. Playing catch up like today on closing schools (when many were already shutting down by necessity) simply means he's toast. A lightning rod for everthig that follows. Irredeemable.

Pound has tanked =  $.15 !!! (yes that dollar not Euros (€1.06) 

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is tanking...🤩

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

18 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

WOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! That is tanking...🤩

I would hate to be exposed to that. Will cause many a company additional difficulties. Dropped near 15c in just over a week - and against Euro too.

More generally I fear a lot of 'middle class' voters may be about to discover the vagaries of universal credit and similar benefits. There will be some political earthquakes ahead!  

Edited March 18, 2020 by Yellow Fever
“There is a synchronised rush for dollars that has caught most companies, governments and traders on the hop,” Mr Wilson writes. But also: “the euro has developed certain safe haven characteristics. Sterling is, on the other hand, a bit of a proxy for ris

[ricardo 7,385]

Just had a text from our medical practice.

All routine appointments suspended until further notice.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Just had a text from our medical practice.

All routine appointments suspended until further notice.

I went to my surgery for my repeat prescription today as the pharmacy is in the building and apart from seeing the nurse you cannot bet it. A sign says only phone or online consulting from now on. I can see the logic but it seems to me a lot of people won't bother, and that isn't good.

We did some shopping for neighbour today and he was more concerned about getting Trill to feed his birds. Get me anything he said. Didn't dare tell him that budgies aren't good for respiratory diseases.

 

[sonyc 5,512]

1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

More patience lost. The Mail's updated lead, with the increase in the death rate, is a good example of how to write a story  full of facts, and giving both sides of the story, but presented in such a way that it is also an attack on a specific target - in this case on Johnson and his crisis performance so far.

Richard Horton (Lancet) article today is very critical and essentially blames complacency when scientists knew something was happening in Wuhan. In terms of delay who knows when we might have acted?

Who might have closed and locked down the country 3 to 4 weeks ago? It would seem unbelievable. Yet, the U Turn in trying now to suppress rather than let it naturally infect is the big change.

 

The science, as Horton states, has always been the same. Yet, we keep hearing that the government is being "led by the science". It certainly is curious.

 

Edited March 18, 2020 by sonyc

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,135]

Short of forcing people to stay inside I can't see how any of the government's advice and guidelines are going to help stop the spread. Many people including me cannot work from home and have bosses who will expect you to work even while sick therefore money and food/product packaging will become contaminated, they'll be millions of shop workers all working with the virus spreading it to each other, to customers and contaminating products. Also many elderly will refuse to isolate out of stubborness because they don't like being told what to do and many that do stay inside will end up looking after kids who will be spreading the disease about now that schools are closed. A good portion of the population is also completely ignorant and pig headed with no regard for others and will do their best to spread the disease around, then there's everyone with terrible hygiene habits etc

 

To me this seems like a pretty pillow fisted way of fighting this, too many people either can't or won't follow advice, this is going to ravage the population regardless. They should have locked everything down a week ago, forced every business to close, stop people traveling and then closed the borders, except for allowing holiday makers to return for a brief week window into quarantine. Then only starting things up again once the cases had been dealt with, no travel in or out of the country until a vaccine is developed. Draconian and extremely harsh measures, but we're talking about hundreds of thousands of lives here. 

Edited March 18, 2020 by Christoph Stiepermann

[sonyc 5,512]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I would hate to be exposed to that. Will cause many a company additional difficulties. Dropped near 15c in just over a week - and against Euro too.

More generally I fear a lot of 'middle class' voters may be about to discover the vagaries of universal credit and similar benefits. There will be some political earthquakes ahead!  

One of my first ever posts about this subject was that I wondered out loud whether this issue could bring down a government. If things get nasty we could have civil unrest. Yet, we are not like France on the whole. Their citizens even take very strong local action if things are not right (pouring milk into fountains or taking pigs into supermarkets and dumping manure in relation to agricultural salaries/pensions/ milk prices etc)

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

7 minutes ago, Christoph Stiepermann said:

Short of forcing people to stay inside I can't see how any of the government's advice and guidelines are going to help stop the spread. Many people including me cannot work from home and have bosses who will expect you to work even while sick therefore money and food/product packaging will become contaminated, they'll be millions of shop workers all working with the virus spreading it to each other, to customers and contaminating products. Also many elderly will refuse to isolate out of stubborness because they don't like being told what to do and many that do stay inside will end up looking after kids who will be spreading the disease about now that schools are closed. A good portion of the population is also completely ignorant and pig headed with no regard for others and will do their best to spread the disease around, then there's everyone with terrible hygiene habits etc

 

To me this seems like a pretty pillow fisted way of fighting this, too many people either can't or won't follow advice, this is going to ravage the population regardless. They should have locked everything down a week ago, forced every business to close, stop people traveling and then closed the borders, except for allowing holiday makers to return for a brief week window into quarantine. Then only starting things up again once the cases had been dealt with, no travel in or out of the country until a vaccine is developed. Draconian and extremely harsh measures, but we're talking about hundreds of thousands of lives here. 

If people refuse to isolate then they have to pay the consequences.