Wuhan coronavirus

[T 190]

Good article CM. I actually think the NHS info is very good when I compare it with official info in other countries I look at and then end up going back to NHS. Where the NHS is struggling compared to other countries is capacity. 

[Essjayess 307]

2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

I suspect that the world will tell China that this is the second time their behaviour has caused a problem like this and woe betide them if it happens again. Whatever it is they do with bats has to stop. That's the nice way of doing it but unfortunately Donald Trump isn't renowned for being tolerant. 

Being of an age to be able to remember the little red books and uniforms of Communist China, that Nation has transformed itself into one of if not the largest providers of consumer items  to the world.

Yet so many of the people in the country still cannot move on from a medieval culture that may be OK for them but doesn't sit well with the rest of us. But considering the powers that be and the amount of people involved, I cannot see them changing.

Firstly, its the small, powerful and well to do elite that have this fixation in China that somehow certain parts of animals, many exotic and alien to China, that have been incorporated into the traditional Chinese medicines, will make you healthy, cure all manner of bodily ailments etc etc...the vast majority of the peoples of China do not eat these imported  exotic animals. Now, if this elite in China want to carry on making bat soup and slitting open caged bears stomachs for bile, that is ok, but at least do it in the most clean and spotless way possible, under stringent health and safety measures, the food markets these creatures were kept in were the reason outbreaks  in the past decades happened. It needs to be mentioned that other  nations, such as Thailand have similar such markets, there needs to be a global response to this issue.

All we know is that this virus started in Wuhan and 27 of the first 41 cases had been to the food market that China shut down. There has been much speculation that the Wuhan Institute of Virology may have had certain samples of this virus and maybe it got out, by design or accident. Of note to is the virilogical facility that was just 280 metres away from the food market in question. Of course there has been a certain amount of ****-for-tat between China and USA in connection with this.

It surprises me that, considering China's very rapid response to their virus outbreak, once they had made the decision to combat it, that its only today, 17th March, that theyve given the order that all people returning to Wuhan must  stay in a 14 day quarantine period.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

35 minutes ago, T said:

Good article CM. I actually think the NHS info is very good when I compare it with official info in other countries I look at and then end up going back to NHS. Where the NHS is struggling compared to other countries is capacity. 

In general I would agree with you, and I suspect the issue with 111 giving out the 'wrong' advice was probably down to the government rapidly changing its advice and without being very clear about it. The one slightly dodgy area seems to be around Ibruprofen where again we seemed to be at variance with other experts - the NHS advice has now been modified somewhat but is still not entirely clear cut IMO.

[Barbe bleu 809]

54 minutes ago, T said:

Good article CM. I actually think the NHS info is very good when I compare it with official info in other countries I look at and then end up going back to NHS. Where the NHS is struggling compared to other countries is capacity. 

Is the NHS currently struggling or is this something we might expect to see?

[sonyc 5,481]

1950 cases latest. CMO stating up to 55,000 may be carrying / experiencing symptoms

Edited March 17, 2020 by sonyc

[Essjayess 307]

5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

1950 cases latest. CMO stating up to 55,000 may be carrying / experiencing symptoms

Ya, and Mr. Valiance saying 20,000 deaths in UK is the best case scenario...that would be equal to worst case seasonal flu epidemics. It could be 50k or 100k who knows. Then think of Africa, South and central America..much depends on when a vaccine comes along, and in sufficient quantities, but the scope is undoubtedly there for millions of deaths before Coronavirus is relegated to a more manageable seasonal affliction.

[Barbe bleu 809]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

1950 cases latest. CMO stating up to 55,000 may be carrying / experiencing symptoms

So 407 new confirmed cases.

A new high but the rate of increase has fallen.   It increased by 26% on yesterday's figures (or was 126% of yesterday's figure if you prefer).

Yesterdays increase was 11%, before that it was 31%, 33%, 35%. 

The relevance of which I do not know as I have no idea on the number being tested ot the testing regime.

[Barbe bleu 809]

6 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Ya, and Mr. Valiance saying 20,000 deaths in UK is the best case scenario...that would be equal to worst case seasonal flu epidemics. It could be 50k or 100k who knows. 

If its 55 deaths and 55,000 cases current mortality rate is 0.001%. Or  62,000 if everyone in Britain got the virus (assume uk population to be 62 million).

Assuming 80% transmission 50k is a rough figure

Edited March 17, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

14 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is the NHS currently struggling or is this something we might expect to see?

I can't quote you any definitive sources for this but I think the NHS has for a long time run as standard at a very high utilisation of resources - probably one of the reasons it has always been regarded as very cost effective compared to other nations.

But even so I believe that bed occupancy in hospitals as standard was generally supposed to be below 80% to allow for peaks in demand, emergencies and of course for seasonal highs. However austerity in the NHS has changed even that situation and certainly in the large teaching hospital where my daughter works they have been working at, or very close to, 100% capacity (and sometimes over 100%) not since the start of this winter but since the winter before - the spring/summer reversion to 'normal' just didn't happen.

Our ageing population probably contributes somewhat to that but the main factor is that resources especially vital ones such as doctors and nurses have been reduced so that we simply don't have the spare capacity or resources to throw at problem like the virus. I think the picture is pretty much the same everywhere in the UK so we can't do what China apparently did on a massive scale and ship in spare resource from other parts of the country to help where it was most needed.

As for China building a couple of hospitals in a fortnight, that is so far away from what we are capable of ......

Going off on a complete tangent I think this nightmare is going to be a big wake up call to the many people who still think of a China as a really big place that makes a lot of cheap stuff for us - for clarity that's not aimed at you in any way but its amazing some of the views you hear about China................ so many people still living in the past rather than the present 🙄

[Yellow Fever 3,732]

26 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Firstly, its the small, powerful and well to do elite that have this fixation in China that somehow certain parts of animals, many exotic and alien to China, that have been incorporated into the traditional Chinese medicines, will make you healthy, cure all manner of bodily ailments etc etc...the vast majority of the peoples of China do not eat these imported  exotic animals. Now, if this elite in China want to carry on making bat soup and slitting open caged bears stomachs for bile, that is ok, but at least do it in the most clean and spotless way possible, under stringent health and safety measures, the food markets these creatures were kept in were the reason outbreaks  in the past decades happened. It needs to be mentioned that other  nations, such as Thailand have similar such markets, there needs to be a global response to this issue.

All we know is that this virus started in Wuhan and 27 of the first 41 cases had been to the food market that China shut down. There has been much speculation that the Wuhan Institute of Virology may have had certain samples of this virus and maybe it got out, by design or accident. Of note to is the virilogical facility that was just 280 metres away from the food market in question. Of course there has been a certain amount of ****-for-tat between China and USA in connection with this.

It surprises me that, considering China's very rapid response to their virus outbreak, once they had made the decision to combat it, that its only today, 17th March, that theyve given the order that all people returning to Wuhan must  stay in a 14 day quarantine period.

Ess - I visit China far too many times over too many years to remember. I'm full of funny stories about it - eat your heart out Michael Palin - and not as a holiday or on a tour. I go to places far from the beaten track - indeed where as an unguarded westerner travelling on my own I am still something of a novelty. There are places in China which will be 'wonders of world or 'must see'  but as yet undiscovered by all but a very few westerners. Ever felt like you have a million eyes on you! Yes we all know of Beijing, Xian and Shanghai (horrid) but Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Nanjing, Hangzou etc are only now entering the average western conscious let alone the much smaller >>1M cities. I often find myself when 'Shanghaied' over a weekend in a national park out of the way keen to explore! 

China is not like the 'backward' culture as often portrayed on here - people across China have rapidly become more 'western' in outlook and I would dare to suggest many are wealthier than the average Brit! That said they still have their ancient culture (what was left after the Cultural Revolution) - it's what makes it fun and for me a fascinating place to visit. The old and the new. It's rather like Japan was but decade or two behind the 'western' curve' as it industrialized. Just to make you laugh they are also having exactly the same issues we have - losing jobs now to developing countries - China doesn't have lots of 'cheap' labour left. That stage has past! Now they are into hi-tech goods and manufacturing - rapidly surpassing us - their universities turning out orders of magnitude more Phds, scientists and engineers than us. Think Huawei! Yes the 21st century will belong to China.

But there is no 'political' freedom and under Xi it has become more restrained but without a doubt most Chinese just want to be left alone by the government and to get on with making money. The Chinese are outright entrepreneurs!  Most of the time they moan about exactly the same thing we moan about - taxes!

The advantage China has with its 'benign' dictatorship is that it has long term plans which it can implement without the too and fro of our political **** for tats. That also helps it throw huge resources at issues like the coronavirus and yes they can act decisely on public order. 

We will hall have to learn to get along with China - historically China has always been so big that it's leaders never really needed to look too far beyond thankfully. I very much doubt they are as 'expansionist' as either the UK or USA in the 19th and 20th centuries but as with all superpowers they have their sphere of influence.

In short - everybody should cut China some slack on the virus! There are things we could usefully learn.

[T 190]

40 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Is the NHS currently struggling or is this something we might expect to see?

I understand that nhs maxed out on testing capacity but currently coping with treatment but won’t be able to cope with escalation  

i understand from discussions with central government I heard today that you can suppress  this but not contain it as some on here still like to assume and that the policy at least in Europe which has less capacity than some Asian countries is flatten the curve. Hence was sent home last week before officially announced as obviously business is in direct discussion with govt about this. The exact extent and timing to flatten the curve will depend on local country circumstances and capacity. 

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

1 hour ago, Essjayess said:

Ya, and Mr. Valiance saying 20,000 deaths in UK is the best case scenario...that would be equal to worst case seasonal flu epidemics. It could be 50k or 100k who knows. Then think of Africa, South and central America..much depends on when a vaccine comes along, and in sufficient quantities, but the scope is undoubtedly there for millions of deaths before Coronavirus is relegated to a more manageable seasonal affliction.

Even if a vaccine was approved tomorrow you'd expect it to take many months to bulk produce, distribute and then actually give the vaccines to sufficient numbers of people to end this. 

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

2 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Firstly, its the small, powerful and well to do elite that have this fixation in China that somehow certain parts of animals, many exotic and alien to China, that have been incorporated into the traditional Chinese medicines, will make you healthy, cure all manner of bodily ailments etc etc...the vast majority of the peoples of China do not eat these imported  exotic animals. Now, if this elite in China want to carry on making bat soup and slitting open caged bears stomachs for bile, that is ok, but at least do it in the most clean and spotless way possible, under stringent health and safety measures.

Pretty sure I saw a documentary where some old fella got out the £3000 piece of family rhino horn which they'd pass down from generation to generation and use a tiny piece of when sick. Didn't look very rich to me.

And bats are very common animals so can't see them being the reserve of the elite, Chinese eat all sorts of weird Insects and stuff on sticks. And of course one region has an annual stray dog eating festival. 

[ricardo 7,328]

Helicopter money incoming🚁

Whatever it takes apparently.

Edited March 17, 2020 by ricardo

[sonyc 5,481]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Helicopter money incoming🚁

Whatever it takes apparently.

Huge amounts! 330bn low cost loans plus business rate relief plus grants. 

[kick it off 1,948]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

So 407 new confirmed cases.

A new high but the rate of increase has fallen.   It increased by 26% on yesterday's figures (or was 126% of yesterday's figure if you prefer).

Yesterdays increase was 11%, before that it was 31%, 33%, 35%. 

The relevance of which I do not know as I have no idea on the number being tested ot the testing regime.

Totally irrelevant as they're not testing many people!

[ricardo 7,328]

21 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Huge amounts! 330bn low cost loans plus business rate relief plus grants. 

Who do we go to for lend lease this time🤔

[ricardo 7,328]

10 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Totally irrelevant as they're not testing many people!

Apparently testing over 4k per day and will soon increase to10k.

[Essjayess 307]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Ess - I visit China far too many times over too many years to remember. I'm full of funny stories about it - eat your heart out Michael Palin - and not as a holiday or on a tour. I go to places far from the beaten track - indeed where as an unguarded westerner travelling on my own I am still something of a novelty. There are places in China which will be 'wonders of world or 'must see'  but as yet undiscovered by all but a very few westerners. Ever felt like you have a million eyes on you! Yes we all know of Beijing, Xian and Shanghai (horrid) but Chengdu, Chongqing, Wuhan, Nanjing, Hangzou etc are only now entering the average western conscious let alone the much smaller >>1M cities. I often find myself when 'Shanghaied' over a weekend in a national park out of the way keen to explore! 

China is not like the 'backward' culture as often portrayed on here - people across China have rapidly become more 'western' in outlook and I would dare to suggest many are wealthier than the average Brit! That said they still have their ancient culture (what was left after the Cultural Revolution) - it's what makes it fun and for me a fascinating place to visit. The old and the new. It's rather like Japan was but decade or two behind the 'western' curve' as it industrialized. Just to make you laugh they are also having exactly the same issues we have - losing jobs now to developing countries - China doesn't have lots of 'cheap' labour left. That stage has past! Now they are into hi-tech goods and manufacturing - rapidly surpassing us - their universities turning out orders of magnitude more Phds, scientists and engineers than us. Think Huawei! Yes the 21st century will belong to China.

But there is no 'political' freedom and under Xi it has become more restrained but without a doubt most Chinese just want to be left alone by the government and to get on with making money. The Chinese are outright entrepreneurs!  Most of the time they moan about exactly the same thing we moan about - taxes!

The advantage China has with its 'benign' dictatorship is that it has long term plans which it can implement without the too and fro of our political **** for tats. That also helps it throw huge resources at issues like the coronavirus and yes they can act decisely on public order. 

We will hall have to learn to get along with China - historically China has always been so big that it's leaders never really needed to look too far beyond thankfully. I very much doubt they are as 'expansionist' as either the UK or USA in the 19th and 20th centuries but as with all superpowers they have their sphere of influence.

In short - everybody should cut China some slack on the virus! There are things we could usefully learn.

Thx for that YF, it was interesting and i welcome that from somebody who has actually been there and know a bit what they are talking about. My particular post was not at all to do with the general population or even what style of government China has, i was merely bringing the point that these food markets were undoubtedly an enormous health hazard and considering the SARS outbreak happened  17 years ago in  similar  place, i was merely saying such places should long ago been closed down and that even if the small elite wanted to carry on with their habit, at least make these markets highly sanitised and healthy so they are not a risk to its own and the worlds populations.

Its also been recognised  that China contributes highly to world levels of pollution, a problem that has often before been associated with other nations at various times in history. It is by no means alone of course, India to kicks out huge amounts of pollution to. Even in the UK, as recently as the 1950s, big urban cities had evil smog like pollution on calm days due to the abundance of coal fires and other pollutanting factors. Its merely an observation on my part that when things like air pollution is  dangerous, food markets are un sanitised enough to create  and cause epidemics etc, then the nation that is making these problems, whomever it may be, should really really act to clean up its own mess, for the sake of its own population first, and for the  entire sake of the globe secondly.

[Barbe bleu 809]

15 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Apparently testing over 4k per day and will soon increase to10k.

So we should expect to see the number of confirmed cases increase drastically due to the change. After this we should begin to see the pattern .

[kick it off 1,948]

51 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Apparently testing over 4k per day and will soon increase to10k.

But not everybody with symptoms, not those isolating at home etc.

Therefore they have no idea of the scale.

[Van wink 2,994]

51 minutes ago, kick it off said:

But not everybody with symptoms, not those isolating at home etc.

Therefore they have no idea of the scale.

They are increasing the capacity to do tests, we are testing more than most other countries in the world. We should be testing NHS staff as a priority imo, that will be happening soon apparantly. 

The latest model seems to have suggested the scale is massive and hence the change in direction. 

Edited March 17, 2020 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

So we should expect to see the number of confirmed cases increase drastically due to the change. After this we should begin to see the pattern .

In terms of what we need to do as individuals the number of cases is now irrelevant, there is widespread person to person transmission so act accordingly.

[T 190]

Key lessons from Hong Kong. More investment in health care. Better hygiene and a less individualistic society. Blaming. govt won’t help. People need to look at UK society and themselves. Blue passports and fish won’t help. Ventilators would. 

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

They are increasing the capacity to do tests, we are testing more than most other countries in the world. We should be testing NHS staff as a priority imo, that will be happening soon apparantly. 

The latest model seems to have suggested the scale is massive and hence the change in direction. 

If they are increasing testing capacity then that is very good news but I think they are being very disingenuous in claiming that we are testing more than 'most' other countries in the world - yes, sure we are doing more testing than loads of countries, Luxembourg, Latvia, Serbia etc, etc etc but we have been doing, and currently still are doing, a lot less testing than the countries which are successfully tackling this crisis.

As you yourself say, and I have been saying for a while, testing NHS staff should be a priority. Its a total no brainer and should have been happening for at least a week if not longer.

[Van wink 2,994]

2 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

If they are increasing testing capacity then that is very good news but I think they are being very disingenuous in claiming that we are testing more than 'most' other countries in the world - yes, sure we are doing more testing than loads of countries, Luxembourg, Latvia, Serbia etc, etc etc but we have been doing, and currently still are doing, a lot less testing than the countries which are successfully tackling this crisis.

As you yourself say, and I have been saying for a while, testing NHS staff should be a priority. Its a total no brainer and should have been happening for at least a week if not longer.

What  figures are you working from for testing in UK and other countries CM?

[ricardo 7,328]

22 minutes ago, T said:

Key lessons from Hong Kong. More investment in health care. Better hygiene and a less individualistic society. Blaming. govt won’t help. People need to look at UK society and themselves. Blue passports and fish won’t help. Ventilators would. 

The virus doesn't  give a fcuk whether you live in a democracy or a dictatorship but I know which one I prefer.

[Essjayess 307]

Not sure whats happening to the latest 17th March up to date totals for  virus cases in Norfolk on the NHS regions list from Public Health England...they have the cases confimed in Norfolk at 3...but my countimg is 10,,,Queen Elizabeth hospital at Lynn  confirms it has 5 cases...James Paget at Gorleston at 3..and i think theres 2 at N&N in Norwich.

[Barbe bleu 809]

11 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Not sure whats happening to the latest 17th March up to date totals for  virus cases in Norfolk on the NHS regions list from Public Health England...they have the cases confimed in Norfolk at 3...but my countimg is 10,,,Queen Elizabeth hospital at Lynn  confirms it has 5 cases...James Paget at Gorleston at 3..and i think theres 2 at N&N in Norwich.

The information cut off time/date is 0900.  It's not a live table, so its quite possible that the official figures are slightly behind those reported locally.  By sticking to a set icod you can start seeing the trends

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

40 minutes ago, Van wink said:

What  figures are you working from for testing in UK and other countries CM?

From what I've seen hard and fast figures on testing are pretty scarce, apart from some of the asian countries that are doing well and therefore inevitably paint us in a bad light.

But I based my judgement mainly on the policies, strategies and what different countries appear to be trying to achieve (and suceeding or not). The UK has consistently downplayed the importance of testing (probably to try and obscure our lack of capacity) even in the light of very explicit advice from the WHO and also the experience of other countries who were hit earlier than us.

As I said earlier, if they are now going to ramp it up then it is good news, but pretty much like everything this government has done so far its too little, and too late - they've been well behind the curve all the way and there is no way they jump back onto it now.