Wuhan coronavirus

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

That has been proposed, those that want to attend may do so for child care but those that would prefer to be at home could do that. It would reduce the level of social contact which seems to be the overarching objective. Keeping schools open does seem to go against all the other policies.

The reality is that with whole family 14 day isolation a lot of children will be missing out on school and the whole education process will become unbalanced.

I think we can safely say all bets are off if the Imperial modelling is anywhere near correct. 250000 deaths. Economic upheavals.

The old purported Chinese double ended curse. "May you live in interesting times"

[Herman 9,756]

I know some will go boo-hoo but people out there need some sort of financial reassurance or we will lose a lot before we realise it.

[ricardo 7,385]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think we can safely say all bets are off if the Imperial modelling is anywhere near correct. 250000 deaths. Economic upheavals.

The old purported Chinese double ended curse. "May you live in interesting times"

Amazing how a country of 1.4 billion have kept it down to 3k

Perhaps they took the right action at the right time.

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Amazing how a country of 1.4 billion have kept it down to 3k

Perhaps they took the right action at the right time.

Almost as if they planned it, where's Len btw?

Edited March 16, 2020 by Van wink

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Amazing how a country of 1.4 billion have kept it down to 3k

Perhaps they took the right action at the right time.

It's honestly not too late here. Just needs ruthless action NOW. France is moving towards it.

[JF 694]

What I can’t get my head around is that this is inevitably going to end with a complete country wide shutdown for a long period of time. It’s happening abroad and it will happen here. Why the hell not just shut it down now and then close the borders, gradually reopening when the time is right. what do we gain by waiting to do the inevitable? 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Almost as if they planned it, where's Len btw?

Got some sales enquiries form Wuhan today. Seriously. Coming back up.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

1 minute ago, JF said:

What I can’t get my head around is that this is inevitably going to end with a complete country wide shutdown for a long period of time. It’s happening abroad and it will happen here. Why the hell not just shut it down now and then close the borders, gradually reopening when the time is right. what do we gain by waiting to do the inevitable? 

 

Yes. This is why we need to get ahead of the curve. Take a smaller (but still massive) hit now or a catastrophic one later. 

China took fright as did others and acted. Why can't we?

 

[JF 694]

4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes. This is why we need to get ahead of the curve. Take a smaller (but still massive) hit now or a catastrophic one later. 

China took fright as did others and acted. Why can't we?

 

I honestly think they believe they can fudge it and take a smaller economic hit when in reality the longer we wait, the bigger that hit will be and many more people that wouldn’t have died, will have. Close it down now (but cancel the football season first!!)

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

21 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes. This is why we need to get ahead of the curve. Take a smaller (but still massive) hit now or a catastrophic one later. 

China took fright as did others and acted. Why can't we?

 

.........because we are led by donkeys??

[Surfer 1,547]

30 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Got some sales enquiries form Wuhan today. Seriously. Coming back up.

Yes it's clear that China and soon S.Korea will be back up and running, especially China with its huge internal economy. And then we'll see a massive and strategic purchase of very specific US stocks. 

[Rock The Boat 1,330]

13 minutes ago, Surfer said:

Yes it's clear that China and soon S.Korea will be back up and running, especially China with its huge internal economy. And then we'll see a massive and strategic purchase of very specific US stocks. 

Time to get into the stock market is when things look at their bleakest. 

[dj11 377]

10 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Time to get into the stock market is when things look at their bleakest. 

But don’t try and catch a falling knife!

[Essjayess 307]

40 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

.........because we are led by donkeys??

I think if the general public at large do not  take and heed the advice from today then its the general public that will be acting like donkeys. On a personal level i will take the advice and stay at home as much as i can,  i will only go to supermarkets or grocery shops for food, buying the normal amount that my family always gets, and pharmacy for my wife and sons needed prescriptions, or at worst a drugstore for any other needed off the shelf medications. In these places i will at least try social distancing, thou in food stores its  not always easy. Other than that,  any other thing needed for my family i will get online if its needed so badly. This is the kind of thing everybody should now be doing, there is no excuse to do otherwise, Should not need a curfew to act this way, but of course some will not  heed the advice and just casually try and do what they  always do as if its normal times.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Essjayess
spelling correction

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

9 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

I think if the general public at large do not  take and heed the advice from today then its the general public that will be acting like donkeys. On a personal level i will take the advice and stay at home as much as i can,  i will only go to supermarkets or grocery shops for food, buying the normal amount that my family always gets, and pharmacy for my wife and sons needed prescriptions, or at worst a drugstore for any other needed off the shelf medications. In these places i will at least try social distancing, thou in food stores its  not always easy. Other than that,  any other thing needed for my family i will get online if its needed so badly. This is the kind of thing everybody should now be doing, there is no excuse to do otherwise, Should not need a curfew to act this way, but of course some will not  heed the advice and just casually try and do what they  always do as if its normal times.

I think the issue is that it's easier for some people to do this than others. We hear for instance that schools can't close because of working parents .... and the temptation is surely for those VERY parents to stretch or ignore 'coronavirus' symptoms because no alternatives have been put in place. Ditto for people on zero hour contracts, self employed and similar. You work to eat.

If you want people to voluntarily avoid such contacts you really need to put alternatives both practical and fiscal in place first.

 

[sonyc 5,511]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Thanks, interesting figures, massive rise in Germany but very low number of deaths. What this is all going to boil down to is the number of intensive care beds, ventilators and staff available to operate them. If you can get on a ventilator it gives you a pretty good chance of surviving, asking British industry to start making them now, after all this wasted time looks like a shocking lack of foresight. Having said that its been a common appeal by all Governments across Europe and the US, but with our limited manufacturing base UK industry are going to find it very hard to make an adequate response. 

On Newsnight just a moment ago...Germany have 22,000 ventilators whilst Hancock claims we have 5000.

Also PPE being delivered  is inadequate for NHS staff according to local reports ( but also an item in the Guardian).

[Van wink 2,994]

19 minutes ago, sonyc said:

On Newsnight just a moment ago...Germany have 22,000 ventilators whilst Hancock claims we have 5000.

Also PPE being delivered  is inadequate for NHS staff according to local reports ( but also an item in the Guardian).

Yes saw it, I don't doubt we have 5000, but we are going to need a lot more.Maybe we assumed we could buy them from German manufacturers !! Ouch !!  Not heard that PPE is inadequate, it was stockpiled from what I heard to deal with a pandemic flu, it may well be that its not of the spec that would be ideal, but I dont know.

[Van wink 2,994]

47 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

I think if the general public at large do not  take and heed the advice from today then its the general public that will be acting like donkeys. On a personal level i will take the advice and stay at home as much as i can,  i will only go to supermarkets or grocery shops for food, buying the normal amount that my family always gets, and pharmacy for my wife and sons needed prescriptions, or at worst a drugstore for any other needed off the shelf medications. In these places i will at least try social distancing, thou in food stores its  not always easy. Other than that,  any other thing needed for my family i will get online if its needed so badly. This is the kind of thing everybody should now be doing, there is no excuse to do otherwise, Should not need a curfew to act this way, but of course some will not  heed the advice and just casually try and do what they  always do as if its normal times.

Same here. If people dont follow the advice the system will become more draconian, an inevitable consequence.

[kick it off 1,948]

6 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yes saw it, I don't doubt we have 5000, but we are going to need a lot more.Maybe we assumed we could buy them from German manufacturers !! Ouch !!  Not heard that PPE is inadequate, it was stockpiled from what I heard to deal with a pandemic flu, it may well be that its not of the spec that would be ideal, but I dont know.

Some anecdotal evidence that masks that expired in 2016 are being distrivuted to healthcare workers.

The whole strategy sucks. Work from home, avoid social gatherings, don't go to the pub, but don't worry, we'll leave schools open to ensure your kids are carriers and come home and infect the entire family. Utterly ****ing illogical.

[Van wink 2,994]

4 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Some anecdotal evidence that masks that expired in 2016 are being distrivuted to healthcare workers.

The whole strategy sucks. Work from home, avoid social gatherings, don't go to the pub, but don't worry, we'll leave schools open to ensure your kids are carriers and come home and infect the entire family. Utterly ****ing illogical.

Cant follow the approach on schools, I've read all the arguments I could find for keeping them open but not logical.There will be a u turn by the end of the week I suspect.

Edited March 16, 2020 by Van wink

[kick it off 1,948]

8 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Cant follow the approach on schools, I've read all the arguments I could find for keeping them open but not logical.There will be a u turn by the end of the week I suspect.

Our head said today that he expects a shutdown to happen, but not sure when - schools are ready for this now but the uncertainty is literally doubling our workload as we have to plan for imminent shutdown and also for staying open indefinitely... not helpful for anyone - we've got numerous kids already off so we've basically had to suspend teaching any new content for all GCSE groups.

My parents are self-isolating at the moment and normally have my 3 year old daughter on Tuesdays - I'm having to stay off to look after her in the morning when I'd normally have free periods but in lieu of any alternative, I'm taking her to work with me tomorrow in the afternoon and she's just going to have to sit in the classroom whilst I teach. Not ideal but at least it means I'm not adding to the cover burden which is already tricky to manage at a relatively small secondary like mine, as we're several staff down due to self isolating.

Edited March 16, 2020 by kick it off

[Barbe bleu 823]

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Cant follow the approach on schools, I've read all the arguments I could find for keeping them open but not logical.There will be a u turn by the end of the week 

Perhaps the logic is that the kids wont be looked after by the over 70s  so as long as they and their parents  dont go to see their grandparents etc it doesnt really matter if they get it or not?

 

[Van wink 2,994]

6 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Perhaps the logic is that the kids wont be looked after by the over 70s  so as long as they and their parents  dont go to see their grandparents etc it doesnt really matter if they get it or not?

 

I've read that and it is an argument, but for me its outweighed by potentially a massive increase in the spread of the virus within the community as a whole by asymptomatic children.

[Barbe bleu 823]

36 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I've read that and it is an argument, but for me its outweighed by potentially a massive increase in the spread of the virus within the community as a whole by asymptomatic children.

I can see both arguments. 

I guess the strategy now is to use the time we have before we turn into an italy or even a Spain or France to see If their strategies actually work long term and in the meantime maintain something of an economy and protect the vulnerable.

 

[Essjayess 307]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Yes saw it, I don't doubt we have 5000, but we are going to need a lot more.Maybe we assumed we could buy them from German manufacturers !! Ouch !!  Not heard that PPE is inadequate, it was stockpiled from what I heard to deal with a pandemic flu, it may well be that its not of the spec that would be ideal, but I dont know.

Still better than Philipines..400 respirators for 105 mill souls.

Absolutely certain that the Imperial College report that completely changed Boris and his Boffins minds was that their phased approach and the rest of it would cause the NHS, in relation to ventilators and more so available ICU;s to be overwhelmed by a factor of 8..and not once but over and over again. Also the report  saying this could mean an actual 12-18 months of keeping the screw tightened, not just a few weeks oe even months. Long road ahead for all nations leaders. Cant believe what Macron ended with...hes living in dreamland...most nations on Earth are facing a  massive economic problem that will have to be dealt with once the virus is generally suppressed...and even then it has to be supressed, it wont be eradicated...even in China.

Europe heading for the worst economic situation and poor hardships since just after WW2...that is for sure now...and this time wont have America to help us out...they will suffer as badly to.

[dylanisabaddog 4,914]

Trump made a chilling comment during his speech yesterday. Along the lines of we should all stick together because it's no one's fault. Except the one who started it. When this is over there is going to be a huge backlash against China. Trump is not the sort of person to forgive and forget 

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

6 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Trump made a chilling comment during his speech yesterday. Along the lines of we should all stick together because it's no one's fault. Except the one who started it. When this is over there is going to be a huge backlash against China. Trump is not the sort of person to forgive and forget 

Do you think Trump will still be there in the autumn ?

I'm sure some will blame China but truthfully it was a pandemic that was going to happen sooner or later - much as the 'big-one' in LA.

Then again Mad Cow disease was a peculiarly British problem that became a global issue.

What it will eventually show is that world needs much better cooperation on global emergencies and no country is metaphorically an island. We are all interconnected. I also suspect the US health non-system will change - to become more 'European' in nature dare I say socialist. Money won't save you.

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Do you think Trump will still be there in the autumn ?

I'm sure some will blame China but truthfully it was a pandemic that was going to happen sooner or later - much as the 'big-one' in LA.

Then again Mad Cow disease was a peculiarly British problem that became a global issue.

What it will eventually show is that world needs much better cooperation on global emergencies and no country is metaphorically an island. We are all interconnected. I also suspect the US health non-system will change - to become more 'European' in nature dare I say socialist. Money won't save you.

 

 

People will inevitably turn their guns on China ( not literally I hope ) as things get worse. One of the leading experts on Newsnight said last night that what China had done in their clampdown, admittedly only when they eventually accepted what was happening, bought the world some valuable time to prepare for what was inevitably going to follow. Whether that time was put to good use is another matter. 

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

1 minute ago, Van wink said:

People will inevitably turn their guns on China ( not literally I hope ) as things get worse. One of the leading experts on Newsnight said last night that what China had done in their clampdown, admittedly only when they eventually accepted what was happening, bought the world some valuable time to prepare for what was inevitably going to follow. Whether that time was put to good use is another matter. 

I don't doubt some will blame China unfairly but truthfully it's much easier to blame those closer at home (rightly or wrongly) - those who knew it was coming and didn't act. Trump and Johnson will be the lightning rods.

If you want any evidence look at Brown in 2008. History says he did everything right indeed led the world but our RWNJ still blame him for the financial crisis (which clearly started in the USA)

[Van wink 2,994]