Wuhan coronavirus

[ricardo 7,385]

4 minutes ago, Van wink said:

There are so many unknowns, certainly cultural differences and behaviour may explain different levels of infection but what’s more significant is the proportion of those infected who go on to develop serious illness. There are a number of theories doing the rounds that certain types of medication, eg ACE inhibitors used to lower blood pressure or treat heart disease cause cellular changes that make serious infections more likely. Do more people in western culture take more medication to control high blood pressure? My guess would be yes.

Should seek doctors advice before stopping any prescription otherwise could do more harm than good. Other than keeping your vitamin D levels up( because our dull northern winters prevent us making enough naturaly) there is very little we can do. Eat well, ride your bike or walk. Although could be awkward if under house arrest.

[sonyc 5,514]

Coronavirus: health experts fear epidemic will ‘let rip’ through UK

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-health-experts-fear-epidemic-will-let-rip-through-uk?

Interesting stuff in here about knowing numbers and the better planning you can make. Sharing for interest.

 

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

33 minutes ago, T said:

People should really stop posting fake news. Covid 19 is a serious issue and posting fake news suggests that people are not taking this seriously and more concerned about trying to prove some point rather than actually caring about facts which impact people’s lives.

Whilst I agree with you 100% on this, I'm afraid it ignores the reality that over the last few years a lot of people seem to have developed a taste for fake news. A lot of politicians have discovered that it can be a very effective campaigning tool - the current government being a prime example with their quite shameless use of fake news in the recent GE and their ongoing addiction to trying avoid any real scrutiny either by Parliament or by professional journalists.

So whilst people, i.e.everybody, should stop posting fake news it is never going to happen when the Prime Minister and government have effectively legitimised it whilst simultaneously attacking and attempting to suppress criticism from serious news organisations.

Sadly it appears that a frightening proportion of people prefer to listen to fake news that accords with their views/prejudices than to be confronted with reality.

[T 190]

Yes the criticism.from credible sources Is that the UK has given up on containment. Some Asian countries are better geared up for containment following SARS than Europe.  But if there were simple easy solutions they would be taken. And there are other factors eg  If people want someone to blame then how about people who considered Brexit more important than the NHS when voting. No doubt there will be lessons to learn for everyone. 

[ricardo 7,385]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

Is this fake news

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

Is this fake news

No. Nothing in the article that hasn't been noted indeed discussed before. Perhaps 500,000 excess deaths. I've always assumed I'd get it like everybody else sooner or later. However its far from obvious to me what the government is doing to avoid the worst case as per this article. Earlier I thought they'd decided to order the over 70s into lockdown tomorrow but that is still perhaps 2 weeks away and 4 weeks too late.

[ricardo 7,385]

Just now, Yellow Fever said:

No. Nothing in the article that hasn't been noted indeed discussed before. Perhaps 500,000 excess deaths. I've always assumed I'd get it like everybody else sooner or later. However its far from obvious to me what the government is doing to avoid the worst case as per this article. Earlier I thought they'd decided to order the over 70s into lockdown tomorrow but that is still perhaps 2 weeks away and 4 weeks too late.

The whole approach is event driven and those events are coming much quicker than expected.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

1 minute ago, T said:

Yes the criticism.from credible sources Is that the UK has given up on containment. Some Asian countries are better geared up for containment following SARS than Europe.  But if there were simple easy solutions they would be taken. And there are other factors eg  If people want someone to blame then how about people who considered Brexit more important than the NHS when voting. No doubt there will be lessons to learn for everyone. 

I think the criticism is far more serious and wide-ranging than that - I think the criticism from the WHO was (to paraphrase) that we're not doing or not doing nearly enough of any of the four or five major things that we should be doing.

From many distinguished scientists the criticism was simply that the strategy is wrong - wrong as in not the best strategy available.

Of course the UK strategy could be eventually be proven to be good, or at least reasonable, but I must say I find your dogged determination to defend it on the say so of a couple of tame government scientists when much of the independent and the international scientific communities are criticising it rather puzzling.

[T 190]

That appears to be based on a genuine source and consistent with what they said previously. It makes clear as I suspected that they are not following the WHO containment policy because they have insufficient resources. It is clear from the article that the nature of this is that there are no nice easy solutions govt could do as some on here keep suggesting so they just have to try and cope. And who do you blame for their inability to cope? I didn’t vote for that. 

[ricardo 7,385]

Flattening the curve requires following the actions of those who have already flattened the curve. Hardly rocket science. Learn lessons from what has worked.

Edited March 15, 2020 by ricardo

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

14 minutes ago, T said:

That appears to be based on a genuine source and consistent with what they said previously. It makes clear as I suspected that they are not following the WHO containment policy because they have insufficient resources. It is clear from the article that the nature of this is that there are no nice easy solutions govt could do as some on here keep suggesting so they just have to try and cope. And who do you blame for their inability to cope? I didn’t vote for that. 

The point T is that this government hasn't even done the simple things in social distancing like banning large or modest gatherings say two weeks ago. Apart from washing hands can you tell me what truly practical orders the government has taken?

Even the Irish have just closed their pubs tonight! Now that has to be serious.

[Essjayess 307]

I think, as shown in Italy, once the numbers reach what seem to be overwhelming numbers, enough for our over burdened hospitals to cope to, then what happened there happens here i.e lockdown and very stingent measures. Its fine for all governments to have plans, different approaches etc etc, but a day comes when all see its a tipping point...governments then have no option than to act as Italy had to...our governments phased  approach to  our nations virus numbers  could be thrown out in an instant.

[ricardo 7,385]

1 minute ago, Essjayess said:

I think, as shown in Italy, once the numbers reach what seem to be overwhelming numbers, enough for our over burdened hospitals to cope to, then what happened there happens here i.e lockdown and very stingent measures. Its fine for all governments to have plans, different approaches etc etc, but a day comes when all see its a tipping point...governments then have no option than to act as Italy had to...our governments phased  approach to  our nations virus numbers  could be thrown out in an instant.

The problem with Italy is that lockdown came too late. That is the lesson from Wuhan.

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

2 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

I think, as shown in Italy, once the numbers reach what seem to be overwhelming numbers, enough for our over burdened hospitals to cope to, then what happened there happens here i.e lockdown and very stingent measures. Its fine for all governments to have plans, different approaches etc etc, but a day comes when all see its a tipping point...governments then have no option than to act as Italy had to...our governments phased  approach to  our nations virus numbers  could be thrown out in an instant.

Too many civil servants and politicians with spreadsheet / powerpoint itus.

Doers not talkers please.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

I fear we are an arrogant nation who still believe the sun rises over the Union Flag. Every time something happens, the same egotistical drivel of we have the finest, we have done our research etc is rolled out. Oxford isn't the cradle of mankind anymore. Westminster isn't the mother of Parliaments anymore. We are talented, economically sound and should be respected of course. But being educated at Eton counts for nothing in the greater world.

Could this nation from this point on just look at itself and remember by all means that it has done more good than bad in the world, is now nothing more than a part of the world. Respecting other nations comes very hard to us.

[Barbe bleu 823]

58 minutes ago, ricardo said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/uk-coronavirus-crisis-to-last-until-spring-2021-and-could-see-79m-hospitalised

Is this fake news

I imagine that the briefings consider the most dangerous outcome and the most likely outcome.   The  briefing reporting here is on the mist dangerous, that doesn't mean that the government consider it the most likely

[T 190]

We all wish there was a solution and I’ve no doubt they have looked at the options Including Wuhan but this is just so widespread that it can’t be controlled. This is not going to get better until it has passed through the population. and until such time they have an effective vaccine generally available.

Follow recommendations to reduce risk and get your affairs in order. The govt doesn’t have any magic solutions that is clear. 

[T 190]

The key to restricting this does seem to be testing capacity, tracing, digital technology and a collective society. The UK has stopped testing not because it disagrees with the WHO policy and what some Asian countries do but it simply doesn’t have the capacity or culture. UK societies decision to run down the NHS and an individualistic society which also thinks it knows better than experts means UK not  best placed to deal with this. 

[Barbe bleu 823]

1 hour ago, T said:

The key to restricting this does seem to be testing capacity, tracing, digital technology and a collective society. The UK has stopped testing not because it disagrees with the WHO policy and what some Asian countries do but it simply doesn’t have the capacity or culture. UK societies decision to run down the NHS and an individualistic society which also thinks it knows better than experts means UK not  best placed to deal with this. 

Do you know that we have less testing capacity that our peers in Europe who are following a different route?

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

14 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

If on average the disease is spread from one carrier to less than one new person the disease burns itself out. 

and that is achieved by total; isolation for about 2-3 weeks as Wuhan has shown. The flattening of the peak will take years and years to achieve the same result and it is a political tool as nobody wants to be seeing thousands of dead people on their watch. Parliament should now work cross party and enact what WHO scientists and others say, any more dithering will make this worse.

London's tube was shut down over the weekend, with zero reporting about this measure, but it is probably right to do so, confined spaces are worse than open spaces, but the virus keeps alive on the wind for three hours, it has a tough gel like outside structure and is not like other viruses, hence the danger to so many in a confined open space such as a footie stadion.

 

BTW. I will never quote the Guardian as I do not trust it not to kowtow to Government and MI's. My information comes from B&O, a very good and well updated Dutch web site,  the  John Hopkins University and worldometer. What we are getting from Johnson's hobnailed cabinet is a political agenda, always aimed at not hurting their ego's and public standing.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Do you know that we have less testing capacity that our peers in Europe who are following a different route?

Yes we do - testing is now being restricted to seriously ill patients only and even that is overloading our capacity.

NHS staff, even on our respiratory wards, are not being tested even though the government and NHS management are well aware that this poses a very high risk of them spreading the virus to already seriously ill patients - bear in mind that in our local teaching hospital the respiratory wards have been running at essentially 100% capacity for at least the last nine months and that is before any virus patients are admitted. I imagine, but don't know, that the picture is pretty much the same throughout the NHS.

The sad fact is the herd immunity strategy is not the optimum strategy for this country, as the government would like us to believe, but it is probably the only strategy that we might (at a huge push!) have the resources to deliver.

IMO the government is the primary culprit for the lack of resources both physical and staffing available within the NHS, but as T has pointed out several times this country has now voted in three consecutive general elections for a party whose policy is explicitly to shrink all public services, including the NHS. So we are where we are, and like it or not there is no way that the resource and capacity that we've lost over the last ten years can be quickly recovered - it would take at least another ten years to build it back up even if the money to do it were available which despite all the recent guff spouted it still isn't.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Latest update from my Brother in Law in Spain.

Guess who have kicked off because the bars are closed? Mini riot in Benidorm.

[dj11 377]

1 hour ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

and that is achieved by total; isolation for about 2-3 weeks as Wuhan has shown. The flattening of the peak will take years and years to achieve the same result and it is a political tool as nobody wants to be seeing thousands of dead people on their watch. Parliament should now work cross party and enact what WHO scientists and others say, any more dithering will make this worse.

London's tube was shut down over the weekend, with zero reporting about this measure, but it is probably right to do so, confined spaces are worse than open spaces, but the virus keeps alive on the wind for three hours, it has a tough gel like outside structure and is not like other viruses, hence the danger to so many in a confined open space such as a footie stadion.

 

BTW. I will never quote the Guardian as I do not trust it not to kowtow to Government and MI's. My information comes from B&O, a very good and well updated Dutch web site,  the  John Hopkins University and worldometer. What we are getting from Johnson's hobnailed cabinet is a political agenda, always aimed at not hurting their ego's and public standing.

London’s tube was not shut down over the weekend, or did I read that wrong?

[Van wink 2,994]

About time we started hearing from a few who have had the infection and recovered, death from anxiety is probably as fatal as death by Covid 19

[Hairy Canary 700]

22 minutes ago, Van wink said:

About time we started hearing from a few who have had the infection and recovered, death from anxiety is probably as fatal as death by Covid 19

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/health-51886553/uk-doctor-on-recovering-from-grim-coronavirus

 

 

[T 190]

4 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

Do you know that we have less testing capacity that our peers in Europe who are following a different route?

I don’t know the relative testing capacity. I just know it is reported we have stopped testing outside hospital because of capacity restrictions and S Korea for example has done a lot more testing. Capacity built up following SARS   I don’t want to get into the blame game. It is human nature that we are bad at preparing for risks that are not recent or close to us and it was a general decision of UK society to reduce NHS capacity. 
 

I’ve just started being subject to a shutdown and hopefully that does improve things but will be a couple of weeks before we know but this is something we are going to live and work with. 

Edited March 16, 2020 by T

[Essjayess 307]

18 minutes ago, T said:

I don’t know the relative testing capacity. I just know it is reported we have stopped testing outside hospital because of capacity restrictions and S Korea for example has done a lot more testing. Capacity built up following SARS   I don’t want to get into the blame game. It is human nature that we are bad at preparing for risks that are not recent or close to us and it was a general decision of UK society to reduce NHS capacity. 
 

I’ve just started being subject to a shutdown and hopefully that does improve things but will be a couple of weeks before we know but this is something we are going to live and work with. 

Talking of capacity..we hear a lot of great and marvellous things about how S.Korea, Taiwan, Singapore  are doing and yes kudos to them. But once again that does not represent all of Asia..Philippines numbers confirmed are low simply because hardly anyone is being tested.."only the most very serious ill reaching hospital"...dues to the fact the nation has  one solitary test lab for a nation of 105 million,  a capability to test result a few a day. The nations hospitals have a grand total of...400 respirators. Manila has been desribed as in a state of calamity.

In Indonesia, President Widodo brought  all agencies together last week and set up 132 main hospitals as the referal hospitals...the places all virus related  ones should go to. Only 49 of those hospitals are anywhere near ready...one hospital in West Java had zero protective gear..they had to go to a nearby general store and buy 100 light plastic raincoats at 70 cents each for their protection against patients with the virus.

The increases in Malaysia of confirmed cases  looks very worrying  now. I could go on...Big and large nationa like Brazil, Russia, Pakistan etc may have escaped lighly  so far compared to Europe, but their cases are increasing,,you can see the same path that Europe is travelling being the same path these places are headed to. So yes...kudos to those 3 or 4 Asian states that are either decreasing or stabilising  confirmed  cases, but in general...so far...the rest of the world awaits their  momemts of peaks and trying to flatten curves.

[Yellow Fever 3,772]

51 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Talking of capacity..we hear a lot of great and marvellous things about how S.Korea, Taiwan, Singapore  are doing and yes kudos to them. But once again that does not represent all of Asia..Philippines numbers confirmed are low simply because hardly anyone is being tested.."only the most very serious ill reaching hospital"...dues to the fact the nation has  one solitary test lab for a nation of 105 million,  a capability to test result a few a day. The nations hospitals have a grand total of...400 respirators. Manila has been desribed as in a state of calamity.

In Indonesia, President Widodo brought  all agencies together last week and set up 132 main hospitals as the referal hospitals...the places all virus related  ones should go to. Only 49 of those hospitals are anywhere near ready...one hospital in West Java had zero protective gear..they had to go to a nearby general store and buy 100 light plastic raincoats at 70 cents each for their protection against patients with the virus.

The increases in Malaysia of confirmed cases  looks very worrying  now. I could go on...Big and large nationa like Brazil, Russia, Pakistan etc may have escaped lighly  so far compared to Europe, but their cases are increasing,,you can see the same path that Europe is travelling being the same path these places are headed to. So yes...kudos to those 3 or 4 Asian states that are either decreasing or stabilising  confirmed  cases, but in general...so far...the rest of the world awaits their  momemts of peaks and trying to flatten curves.

 

I'm not too worried that we aren't 'testing in general' if it is now out of control (although as per WHO it would be much better if we did) providing we have true random testing in sufficient density across the nation(s) of the population to give us a strong statistical measure of the spread and depth of the pandemic - and such data to be made public (no 'polishing').

 

[Essjayess 307]

Indeed YF absolutely right. Even when i look at a site such as Worldometer or BNO, and check the daily new confirmed cases, i have to keep reminding myself these are confirmed cases only and that there is a huge variation around the globe as regards how each nation does its testing, its testing capacity, how far along the path  each nation is as regards as spread of the virus etc etc...so many variables that these sites can only give us a glimpse of where the world truly is in regards to the virus and the damage its caused thus far...even though  the sites and the info they give us are still welcome and useful.

[Essjayess 307]

First reported cases today in Tanzania, Liberia, Benin, Somalia and...Greenland.

 

Getting hard  now to find any places with no reported cases...i can think of Uganda, Madagascar and North Korea. But of course likely NK will magically be the only nation on earth that  reports zero cases.