Wuhan coronavirus

[T 190]

Scientists are not as nationalistic as the general population fortunately.  They are probably the most international group you could come across. They are of course sharing data and information and looking at what each other are doing. They are all following the same principles. The question is of local timing and capacity not general approach. The UK is phasing in similar measures it is only a question of timing and extent  

The problem the UK has is it has less capacity, a more individualistic society, and one that thinks that it is right to ignore expert advice. This all comes from UK society ultimately not the govt and following the necessary actions will come down to the individual not the government. The I’m all right sod everyone else ignore expert advice mentality of the majority demonstrated by Brexit really is not going to work for this one so we can only hope those attitudes change. This ultimately depends on individual behaviour not the govt. The UK given the lower capacity and individualistic sod experts attitude is maybe not the best place to be. 

[Disco Dales Jockstrap 1,891]

17 hours ago, ricardo said:

130 to 150 percent increase in every days numbers.

Where do you get these numbers Ricardo? Is this the % increase in positive tests from one day to another? If so, your numbers are very very wrong.

From the 13th to the 14th of March there was a 42% increase in positive tests (from 798 to 1140) . 12th to the 13th of March was around 35%. 3rd to 4th March it was 66%! The numbers vary from day to day but do seem, in the main, to increase the more people you test, funnily enough.

The actual % of people being found to have tested positive has remained pretty much the same over the last 4 days: about 6-7% (1140 out of 4975 tested yesterday, 798 out of 3007 tested the previous day).

The increase in numbers of people testing positive we see each day is because they are now testing a lot more people (4975 tested yesterday compared to 1215 on the 11th). You test more people, you find more cases.

18 hours ago, ricardo said:

Not a surprise they want to curtail testing.

Please be careful with what you are reporting - they are increasing testing, not reducing:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/03/nhs-to-ramp-up-coronavirus-testing-labs/

Yesterday, the NHS actually tested more people than any day since the virus popped up (just shy of 5000). That was an increase of nearly 2000 on the previous day; they plan to ramp it up to 10,000 a day, matching South Korea.

While a forum is a place for opinions of all kinds, as it should be, if events of this kind are going to be discussed it is important that any information we provide is correct. Worrying those that are most at risk will not help them and may in turn cause them other health issues, both mentally and physically. Calm heads are needed.

My comments are nothing personal to you Ricardo, I just feel we need to be careful with what we say on here.

OTBC

[Herman 9,713]

Robert Peston tells us stuff from an unattributed "government source" yet again, Matt Hancock writes an article and it's behind the Telegraph paywall (which has to get lifted after numerous complaints), the PM disappears again. Sorry lads, but this isn't good enough. People need clear facts and updates or else rumours, dodgy stats and false information will spread very quickly.

[ricardo 7,345]

59 minutes ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

Where do you get these numbers Ricardo? Is this the % increase in positive tests from one day to another? If so, your numbers are very very wrong.

From the 13th to the 14th of March there was a 42% increase in positive tests (from 798 to 1140) . 12th to the 13th of March was around 35%. 3rd to 4th March it was 66%! The numbers vary from day to day but do seem, in the main, to increase the more people you test, funnily enough.

The actual % of people being found to have tested positive has remained pretty much the same over the last 4 days: about 6-7% (1140 out of 4975 tested yesterday, 798 out of 3007 tested the previous day).

The increase in numbers of people testing positive we see each day is because they are now testing a lot more people (4975 tested yesterday compared to 1215 on the 11th). You test more people, you find more cases.

Please be careful with what you are reporting - they are increasing testing, not reducing:

https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/03/nhs-to-ramp-up-coronavirus-testing-labs/

Yesterday, the NHS actually tested more people than any day since the virus popped up (just shy of 5000). That was an increase of nearly 2000 on the previous day; they plan to ramp it up to 10,000 a day, matching South Korea.

While a forum is a place for opinions of all kinds, as it should be, if events of this kind are going to be discussed it is important that any information we provide is correct. Worrying those that are most at risk will not help them and may in turn cause them other health issues, both mentally and physically. Calm heads are needed.

My comments are nothing personal to you Ricardo, I just feel we need to be careful with what we say on here.

OTBC

Not at all, the numbers are increasing on a logorithmic scale. You can easily track them on worldometers.info.coronavirus you can track the numbers and graphs for each individual country. What I have reported is laid out for you in simple charts and graphs.

Each days totals are between 1.3 and 1.5 times higher than the previous days. It is almost the same for each country in Europe if you follow the numbers. 1140 is 1.4 times higher than 798 and you can expect much the same increase today and in subsequent days.

There is no lack of genuine information out there, you just have to look.

 

 

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by ricardo

[T 190]

It  is reported that a key action will be for the most vulnerable to self isolate for a long period of time. If people think that the government are not taking action fast enough then as have said for long time can take action  now themselves rather than blame government  This would allow some herd immunity to develop and limit the temporary damage to society and the economy  

Noticeable today that gym classes for younger down but near normal but following class for older people had fraction of normal participants. There is no problem with supplies. The only problem is selfish inconsiderate people panic buying. 

[ricardo 7,345]

9 minutes ago, T said:

It  is reported that a key action will be for the most vulnerable to self isolate for a long period of time. If people think that the government are not taking action fast enough then as have said for long time can take action  now themselves rather than blame government  This would allow some herd immunity to develop and limit the temporary damage to society and the economy  

Noticeable today that gym classes for younger down but near normal but following class for older people had fraction of normal participants. There is no problem with supplies. The only problem is selfish inconsiderate people panic buying. 

I took appropriate action weeks ago thanks to taking responsibility upon myself to understand what was going on. It's too late once the panic begins.

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

Without at all making light of the situation...

 

I thought drinking all that fizzy Corona (washing down those lovely sherbert lemons) in my childhood might rot my teeth, not that it would cause a pandemic several decades later.

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

4 hours ago, BroadstairsR said:

"Thailand was one of the first countries after China to experience the Corona virus, and in the early days (week 1-2) was leading the charts for infections by country excluding China."

 

Thailand is run by a military coup who organised a sham democracy. They ban popular opposition parties and are notorious for fact-fiddling and keeping the truth from the public. Until recently they were still letting in Chines by the thousands for the sake of tourist money.

Hospital facilities in the NE of the country especially are poor. There is drought, famine and dengue fever to cope with.

There are also wet markets still allowed to function in Bkk.( Chatachutek (?)for one.)

Their figures are false, imo.

Singapore,however, is trustworthy.They are the most community minded citizens in the world and often self police.They will obey the rules to the letter. The Thais won't.  

However, I hope that you are correct about both countries and that there is something to be learned from stringent temperature monitoring. 

Being a dictatorship is probably an advantage at the moment as it means instructions can go out and get implemented quickly, and resources allocated quickly without having to go through a lot of red-tape. Though of course, I'm not advocating a dictatorship as a general form of government. 

But it does help if you can quickly setup on-street testing stations to filter out those showing higher temperatures. This morning folks will wander in and out of Jarrolds in Norwich and it's just a lottery whether or not you come into contact with the virus now. There's no mass screening going on, which there should be. 

[Disco Dales Jockstrap 1,891]

14 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Not at all, the numbers are increasing on a logorithmic scale. You can easily track them on worldometers.info.coronavirus you can track the numbers and graphs for each individual country. What I have reported is laid out for you in simple charts and graphs.

Each days totals are between 1.3 and 1.5 times higher than the previous days. It is almost the same for each country in Europe if you follow the numbers. 1140 is 1.4 times higher than 798 and you can expect much the same increase today and in subsequent days.

There is no lack of genuine information out there, you just have to look.

Thanks for your reply Ricardo.

I am aware of the many, many websites available with information about the virus - what is key is HOW we use that information.

The totals are not 130, 140 or 150% bigger each day as you stated- with all due respect, your maths is wrong.

798 x 1.4286=1140 (42.86% increase NOT 140%)     

798 140% bigger is 1915.

This is exactly the issue I was referring to in my previous post; we need to be so careful how we interpret data.

OTBC

[BroadstairsR 2,138]

"Being a dictatorship is probably an advantage."

May be, but not if that dictatorship cares little for the people and whose measures will be centred around self-preservation.

I recently managed to watch a very harrowing film called "First They Killed My Father," about the Khmer Rouge's dreadful treatment of the Cambodian population as a whole during the period now known as the 'killing fields.'

It was sickening.

Life is treated more cheaply in some parts of the world than we are used to.

At least Bumbling Boris is no Pol Pot even though his administration seems to be all over the place over their response to this major problem.

One day he was advising over 70'snot to go on cruises (?). A few days later there is talk of making them self -isolate for three monthsand more.The over seventies present no more risk of transmitting. Some like to get out and about. They know the risks. Instead of forced isolation they should be provided with self-preservation equipment such as N95 masks and eye protection ( a la South Korea) if they wish for it. Also: what about other vulnerable people under 70, high blood pressure, diabetics, COPD vctims?

 

 

Edited March 15, 2020 by BroadstairsR

[sonyc 5,491]

You can even model the numbers yourself Disco just by looking back at the daily numbers and project forward. You find a very predictable pattern of increase. So today it's likely to be north of 1500 for example and towards 3000 by Monday afternoon. It's in the next few days that higher numbers start (in absolute terms). What we don't know is if the rate can be slowed. Let's hope so.

 

In answer to T,....We at home have been preparing for at least two weeks and have not been mixing and because our son knows of someone else with it (long story) and his work have suggested he self-isolates, then we have had to do the same 'in-house'. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Fact is, people such as Ricardo were warning of this some while ago while others were reluctant to believe it. OK then, now that everyone realises there is a major problem, there is no point in arguing over figures, percentages, testing or whatever. The world, and our nation, faces a real problem. One that covers every sphere of living and working.

It appears the Government is facing a backlash from much of the scientific and medical community about its approach. We do not need a repeat of scenes we had during the Brexit debate but its actions do need probing and prodding so that the consensus is achieved rather than just taking advice from a narrow area of expertise.

So we really do need the Spirit of the Blitz at the moment and those of us well at the moment should be looking out for those that aren't and I don't just mean those with Covid 19 symptoms.

Don't be greedy at the supermarket. Follow the advice about hygiene. Check your family, friends and neighbours. Don't whinge and whine if things don't quite go your way for a while. If you have financial worries don't ignore them but get help and advice.

Watching Andrew Marr this morning, his synopsis talked of the world maybe changing forever following this. I have my doubts but I understand what he meant and really hope that from now on consensus becomes the norm rather than greed and exclusion.

[sonyc 5,491]

See attached Keelan'sgrandad. It demonstrates how a person can give a message. If it won't open its on the BBC site (from the Marr programme) 

[T 190]

Someone failed to prepare for Basic maths 101 it seems 

sure I’ve been prepared to work at home and to self isolate for weeks as clear this was escalating. No need to panic buy though as generally people are buying more but not consuming more so there will be a restocking soon and delivery services will expand capacity as delivery capacity can be be switch from other non grocery items.
 

Stocking up for the 4 months of Isolation really is not practical so elderly will need to make private or commercial provision for delivery while the young get on with their lives. Work will need to continue. Social lives will be curtailed. 

[Disco Dales Jockstrap 1,891]

26 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Fact is, people such as Ricardo were warning of this some while ago while others were reluctant to believe it. OK then, now that everyone realises there is a major problem, there is no point in arguing over figures, percentages, testing or whatever. The world, and our nation, faces a real problem. One that covers every sphere of living and working.

I'm not arguing over correct use of figures...but clearly using incorrect ones or misinterpreting them, even unintentionally, is not helpful to anyone. I'm not going to apologise for making people aware of that.

OTBC

Edited March 15, 2020 by Disco Dales Jockstrap

[T 190]

This has been the top story in the news for weeks. 

[Herman 9,713]

58 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Without at all making light of the situation...

 

I thought drinking all that fizzy Corona (washing down those lovely sherbert lemons) in my childhood might rot my teeth, not that it would cause a pandemic several decades later.

I remember this from France. It could explain the run on toilet paper. (Pardon the pun).

[sonyc 5,491]

33 minutes ago, T said:

Someone failed to prepare for Basic maths 101 it seems 

sure I’ve been prepared to work at home and to self isolate for weeks as clear this was escalating. No need to panic buy though as generally people are buying more but not consuming more so there will be a restocking soon and delivery services will expand capacity as delivery capacity can be be switch from other non grocery items.
 

Stocking up for the 4 months of Isolation really is not practical so elderly will need to make private or commercial provision for delivery while the young get on with their lives. Work will need to continue. Social lives will be curtailed. 

Quite agree with all of this T

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

Well the phoney war is almost over. Johnson's bumbling will have to come to end.

It is way past time for the limited but sensible pre-emptive measures that many of us wanted to 'get ahead of the curve' or at least to try to do so and give the public due notice of what lies ahead. Now it gets real and I for one have no time for fools.

First - accept this a national emergency, non-political and we need the best minds and buy-in of all persuasions. Get Starmer etc in the government. Ditch non urgent or politically motivated legislation. It's not the time or place.

Enact emergency powers. Don't 'wait' until you are again left with no choice. People are already panic buying and riots can't be far away without appropriate action. It may well get messy. People want security and leadership not chaos  or worse anarchy.

Whether the government likes it or not - we are about to do a Wuhan or should I say Hubai. Many companies large and small will fall off an economic cliff - even the likes of 'spoons'. Half-measures will only exacerbate the problems and show weak leadership. Even the financial system will teeter. All will need emergency help / liquidity.

Fully prioritize the NHS and emergency services / key workers. 

Finally - yes this is all a bit over-blown in that we will come through it, chastened and wiser. Sadly there will now be many deaths - the number will be determined by how quickly (or slowly) the government acts on the above. 

[ricardo 7,345]

1 hour ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

Thanks for your reply Ricardo.

I am aware of the many, many websites available with information about the virus - what is key is HOW we use that information.

The totals are not 130, 140 or 150% bigger each day as you stated- with all due respect, your maths is wrong.

798 x 1.4286=1140 (42.86% increase NOT 140%)     

798 140% bigger is 1915.

This is exactly the issue I was referring to in my previous post; we need to be so careful how we interpret data.

OTBC

I am sorry to have to correct you again but 1915 is 240% of 798

ask your calculator if you don't believe me.

 

what is 140% of 798 answer 1140

 

http://onlinepercentagecalculators.com/how-to-do-percentages/

[ricardo 7,345]

57 minutes ago, T said:

Someone failed to prepare for Basic maths 101 it seems 

 

Yes and looks like it is you

http://onlinepercentagecalculators.com/how-to-do-percentages/

😂

[ricardo 7,345]

Nipped up to Sainsburys Queens Rd, for a newspaper and some shaving gel.

Utter mayhem in the toilet roll, paracetomol, hand cleaner and dried goods shelves.

Do you recall verbals I got when I said what was going to happen a month ago?

[sonyc 5,491]

Can anyone say how long China was in lockdown? Was it one or two months? It cannot have been any longer than 2 months (first week of January to middle of March possibly) and new cases now being reported are near to single figures.

[ricardo 7,345]

7 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Can anyone say how long China was in lockdown? Was it one or two months? It cannot have been any longer than 2 months (first week of January to middle of March possibly) and new cases now being reported are near to single figures.

About two and a half months, but they took draconian action to do it. Almost the entire economy shut down during February.

The validity of the Chinese figures can be debated but as they are slowly beginning a restart factories, they appear to have worked.

[Disco Dales Jockstrap 1,891]

40 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I am sorry to have to correct you again but 1915 is 240% of 798

ask your calculator if you don't believe me.

 

what is 140% of 798 answer 1140

 

http://onlinepercentagecalculators.com/how-to-do-percentages/

Asking 'what is 140%' of a number is NOT the same as stating:

22 hours ago, ricardo said:

130 to 150 percent increase in every days numbers.

Ask your calculator if you don't believe me.

Your helpful link even shows you the difference.

I knew it was a mistake to come into this discussion; no more comments from me on this thread. 

OTBC

[ricardo 7,345]

1 hour ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

Asking 'what is 140%' of a number is NOT the same as stating:

Ask your calculator if you don't believe me.

Your helpful link even shows you the difference.

I knew it was a mistake to come into this discussion; no more comments from me on this thread. 

OTBC

Take it up with your calculator.😉

 

You have obviously misconstrued what I have said and perhaps I could have put it in simpler terms for the pedantic. Apologies if I did not make it clearer.

The number for each day is between 130% and 150% of the previous day and the next day will be 130% to 150% of todays number. Thus roughly doubling about every 2 and a half days

Edited March 15, 2020 by ricardo

[Herman 9,713]

58 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Nipped up to Sainsburys Queens Rd, for a newspaper and some shaving gel.

Utter mayhem in the toilet roll, paracetomol, hand cleaner and dried goods shelves.

Do you recall verbals I got when I said what was going to happen a month ago?

Bang out of order whoever gave you verbals. 😉😀

[Barbe bleu 814]

He is right Ricardo.   The numbers were not increasing by 140% each day.  That would be more than doubling.

The figures were probably multiplying by 1.4 though.

 These figures have probably been unreliable as an indicator of spread for a long time already so there probably isn't much point in worrying about it.

 

 

[Capt. Pants 4,195]

Such measures in China are fine but one has to assume no-one is immune from the virus and infection will start all over again. I believe nothing I hear coming out of China in any event. Their factories need to start, not because they can.

Until a vaccine is found this virus is something we will just have to live with. I'm prepared to go with the approach recommended by Government scientists. Short term pain for long term gain. Every so often natural selection has to take place and we are now on that space. Third world countries have been suffering disease and starvation for generations. Now it is our turn. **** happens.

 

[Essjayess 307]

This may be in a boring type of way but shows the total number of virus confirmed in the Asian countries i spoke of yesterday. Ive included Thailand to as  RTB and 1 or 2 others mentioned that place.  Its a daily number of total cases within each nation, each day, from March 1st up to today March 15th. Of course all nations have their own whys and wherefores concerning statitiscs but its clear to the potential for increased daily new cases, whereas South Korea are valiantly  getting their daily new cases decreasing. Remember to, some of these places had early cases of the Virus.

Philippines....3-3-3-3-3-5-5-6-10-33-49-52-64-111-145

Indonesia......2-2-2-2-2-2-6-6-19-27-34-34-69-96-117

Malaysia.......24-24-24-29-50-50-55-83-93-93-117-129-129-197-428

Thailand........42-42-43-43-47-47-48-50-50-53-59-70-75-82-114.

I applaud those Asian nations who are breaking their backs in decreasing or at least stabilising this  terrible virus, but as i alluded to yesterday its not Asia as a whole that has success in  the control of this virus. I can show this list and these nations daily new cases are increasing and speeding up, theres big populations here. Ipray they dont get explosive new numbers thats happened in Europe, but the potential is there and i wonder if they can mobilise and battle against it as strongly and stringently as China and S.Korea have done.