Wuhan coronavirus

[ricardo 7,348]

7 minutes ago, T said:

 

But as I’ve said the decisions  will Be based on the Mass Majority not just the minority so you were never going to get what you want as I warned you at the start. There is no one size fits all solution so yes you will have a different opinion than others but you don’t have to work for a living so of course you have a different view. 

Yes but my children and grandchildren do and although it may seem selfish to some, I would rather that they remain alive.

[T 190]

People need to work and have a life. Brutal but I think you will find people likely to die in next five years won’t vote and people who die will not  vote. If you take a political approach you decide based on what the people in 5 years want and they want to live and work. The government has said it will take a balanced approach and yes that does mean balancing lives against economic cost. A decision everyone makes when they go to the ballot box and medics make everyday. I’m sure as far as you are concerned they’re making the wrong decisions but that does not make them the wrong decision s for society as a whole. Tough I know because I would like more action personally but that doesn’t make more action right. 

[ricardo 7,348]

3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

“#coronavirus Italy update: Codogno, the first town to face lockdown about three weeks ago, just reported that the number of new infected patients has reached 0.

The lockdown works: the draconian measures imposed on the area made this happen in just a few weeks”

 

Don’t know how reliable this source is but if true illustrates the point nicely 

Indeed.👍

[ricardo 7,348]

They will be closing things down within the next few days anyway. Far better optics to act quickly than to be seen to be forced into it.

[Van wink 2,994]

Professor John Ashton on Newsbight now saying we have wasted an opportunity, wasted a month

Edited March 11, 2020 by Van wink

[Barbe bleu 815]

6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Indeed.👍

I do t want to p*ss on your parade but according to wikipedia codogno has a population of about 15,000. 

This sample size is far too small to judge anything.    If the figures for northern Italy as a whole, or in the big cities are showing a reduction  then there a valid analysis might be made.

Also, on a point of order Denmark has a population less then a tenth of the UKs but more cases.   To say that Denmark has acting quicker than the UK in promoring/forcing isolation we must have around 6000 cases when that poi t is reached

[T 190]

You don’t get new cases if people are dead. Disease follows a normal curve regardless of intervention so it will have passed through to some extent anyway. Complete long term lock down is imnot sustainable.
 

Regardless of what you or I think the govt has decided not to take early delay measures. I know and understand what you want and why but I’ve always warned you that you are not going to get it and why so practically you can only decide what measures you are going to take personally. Let’s say for argument sake you are right and the govt are wrong then I see zero satisfaction in being proved right ie dying. so take mitagating action 

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

13 minutes ago, Van wink said:

“#coronavirus Italy update: Codogno, the first town to face lockdown about three weeks ago, just reported that the number of new infected patients has reached 0.

The lockdown works: the draconian measures imposed on the area made this happen in just a few weeks”

 

Don’t know how reliable this source is but if true illustrates the point nicely 

Thanks VW. Yes I saw that earlier too. All very positive.

As per your earlier comment I fail to understand at this juncture why we haven't acted at least a week ago. The writing was on the wall.

It's almost as if we want the biggest earliest unflattened peak possible. Perhaps that's cheaper in T's world. Cheltenham was madness.

[ricardo 7,348]

When people start dying in numbers anyone seen prioritising money above lives is likely to have a very shortened political career.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

When people start dying in numbers anyone seen prioritising money above lives is likely to have a very shortened political career.

More to the point the blame will land very squarely on those that delayed apparently needlessly.

[hogesar 9,618]

We're only a small office in Taverham but made the decision on Tuesday to make sure everyone could work from home and that's what's been happening. We are a digital company so rather than meetings being less convenient and a likely downturn in staff performance it's still a decision worth taking in our book.

[Essjayess 307]

39 minutes ago, Van wink said:

“#coronavirus Italy update: Codogno, the first town to face lockdown about three weeks ago, just reported that the number of new infected patients has reached 0.

The lockdown works: the draconian measures imposed on the area made this happen in just a few weeks”

 

Don’t know how reliable this source is but if true illustrates the point nicely 

even if this is reliable what does it really prove?...that in the short term....if 3 weeks is short term...the numbers  fall dramatically. But then what? How long do the citizens of Codogno expect to have to wait  until normality resumes?  Until Italy has zero cases? No going to happen...this virus is with us long term. Also  it only takes 1 infected person to  restart it all again..that in a nutshell is the conundrum facing the entire planet now....that lockdown is socially and economically harsh and destroying, even if its necessary to bring numbers down...but its far from certain in a very short time span it cant re occur again. Even in China after a much longer period of stringent lockdown than Italy there are still over 16,000 active cases and over 4,000 serious / critical...China is far from done with Coronavirus..and i honestly believe  lockdowns are only necessary when things do get as bad as in Lombardy...not before. Even then, lockdowns are not going to magically make this virus  go away..ultimately , most people on this planet will catch this virus...who knows how long that will take, but thats the reality.

[Surfer 1,547]

Data 

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd

 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html

I predict Florida will be next to show a significant increase in cases, and if it does, a high % of deaths.

Edited March 12, 2020 by Surfer

[Surfer 1,547]

So the President just spoke - summary

Today the WHO declared it a pandemic. 

We took all necessary steps which included banning travel from China.

Taking early, intense action, we have seen dramatically lower cases here than anywhere else - this is a complete LIE the reason we have lower case numbers is the US HAS NOT BEEN TESTING FOR IT....

Europe Union did not and now we have infection hot spots seeded by travelers coming from there. 

So we will suspend all travel and trade into the USA from Europe for the next 30 days, this restriction will not apply to the UK. 

 

I am sure that will reassure the markets (not!)   Wonder if he talked to Boris about this "plan" ????

Edited March 12, 2020 by Surfer

[Surfer 1,547]

Reactions:

As parents like us were scrambling to bring kids home from study abroad programs in Europe. Unbelievable

 

Not clear at all. Does the ban apply to non-US flight crews? If so, how will our families return from Europe? (Specifically, how will my daughter return?)

 

I think I have a grasp on the REAL policy, but does anyone mind doing a quick recap to see if I’m right? My take, EU people can’t come here, unless they spend 14 days in a non EU country. But US citizens can go back/forth without issue. So he is punishing the EU. Because Trump.

 

And the actual policy

 

https://www.dhs.gov/news/2020/03/11/homeland-security-acting-secretary-chad-f-wolf-s-statement-presidential-proclamation

Edited March 12, 2020 by Surfer

[Surfer 1,547]

Clean up on aisle 5 .... half of what he said was wrong / or was realized as stupid or illegal and corrected.

This was a written speech, read off a teleprompter ... blame everyone else message was clear but the travel ban only applies to Schengen countries and so not to Ireland or UK where he happens to have golf courses, the and the ban does not apply to US citizens although he suggested it would, the ban does not involve goods from Europe although he said it did, and the waiving of the testing co-pay cost does not cover follow up medical treatment costs.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/absolute-catastrophe-online-meltdown-triggered-by-trumps-error-filled-coronavirus-speech/

And almost nothing about what's going on with testing, or what we will do specifically next.

He's completely lost and unfortunately we will be because of that. The State Governments can only do so much, the Federal Government is still the big dog in the US political arena. 

 

O.K back to my promise about posting in the Trump thread, but this involved Europe too....

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Surfer

[Surfer 1,547]

And meanwhile .... a different perspective - how many have recovered. 

https://ktla.com/news/coronavirus/more-than-60000-coronavirus-patients-have-recovered-fear-still-looms/

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by Surfer

[T 190]

Delay is not going to stop this as we would all wish so when the delay measures were brought in does not matter In the sense of reducing cases as people are going to get it anyway regardless of the measures unless you stop all human contact which is not viable. . What matters is when is the most effective time to bring in measures to spread the cases to manage the load. Everywhere has brought in measures as things have escalated in the world. 
 

Anyway it looks like delay measures will start in UK today with people at First sign of illness encouraged to stay at home consistent with WHO findings that people are infectious early on  so UK govt acting consistent with scientific advice and more strict measures phased in to manage the peak. 
 

im hearing home office is being considered for me from Monday. Everyone down the gym following cleaning instructions and maintaining distance and more friendly and considerate to others. Soon time to train outside anyway. The long term risk is that people are still going to die more from the risks associated with being unfit including the risk from Covid 19 so wake up call for people to follow the expert advice which they should have always been following to dramatically reduce your long term risk. People get concerned about delay yet majority have ignored general advice on your most important long term survival strategy for years. This would contribute far more than any delay strategies. 
 

What I’m sure of is arguing with me or anyone else will not save any of us. Following official credible advice will reduce the risk. And that doesn’t include advice from Trump to go to work with mild symptoms. Boris has shown he is no trump when it matters and has gone up in my estimation. 
 

Take individual action to manage your risk as no amount of govt action is going to change the need to consider social and economic factors because as Hancock and every other health expert says this is a marathon and not a sprint which can be solved by excessive short term measures. 

[Herman 9,717]

5 hours ago, Surfer said:

So the President just spoke - summary

Today the WHO declared it a pandemic. 

We took all necessary steps which included banning travel from China.

Taking early, intense action, we have seen dramatically lower cases here than anywhere else - this is a complete LIE the reason we have lower case numbers is the US HAS NOT BEEN TESTING FOR IT....

Europe Union did not and now we have infection hot spots seeded by travelers coming from there. 

So we will suspend all travel and trade into the USA from Europe for the next 30 days, this restriction will not apply to the UK. 

 

I am sure that will reassure the markets (not!)   Wonder if he talked to Boris about this "plan" ????

Does he know Heathrow is a hub airport? Will the US be checking interconnecting flights? 

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

Does he know Heathrow is a hub airport? Will the US be checking interconnecting flights? 

That was my first thought! 

[JF 694]

9 hours ago, hogesar said:

We're only a small office in Taverham but made the decision on Tuesday to make sure everyone could work from home and that's what's been happening. We are a digital company so rather than meetings being less convenient and a likely downturn in staff performance it's still a decision worth taking in our book.

Very sensible decision. Everyone who can do their jobs from home now need to be doing so. The company my wife works for has over 400 people in the office, and she can do her job from home. The company insists its business as usual and everyone must come in. If one person gets it in that environment it will go through it like wildfire,  and they will then have nobody in! The government need to enforce the working from home if people can.  and not leave it up to employers who will put money before health.

Edited March 12, 2020 by JF

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

10 minutes ago, JF said:

Very sensible decision. Everyone who can do their jobs from home now need to be doing so. The company my wife works for has over 400 people in the office, and she can do her job from home. The company insists its business as usual and everyone must come in. If one person gets it in that environment it will go through it like wildfire,  and they will then have nobody in! The government need to enforce the working from home if people can.  and not leave it up to employers who will put money before health.

It is sensible. However while I have no idea what the precise percentage is my guess is that a clear majority of jobs cannot be done from home. You cannot manufacture a car from home, or catch fish, or work in face to face retailing, or provide emergency services, or transport.

[JF 694]

7 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

It is sensible. However while I have no idea what the precise percentage is my guess is that a clear majority of jobs cannot be done from home. You cannot manufacture a car from home, or catch fish, or work in face to face retailing, or provide emergency services, or transport.

No of cause not, but removing the people who can work from home from every day interaction in an office environment will likely slow the spread down. 

[ricardo 7,348]

20 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

It is sensible. However while I have no idea what the precise percentage is my guess is that a clear majority of jobs cannot be done from home. You cannot manufacture a car from home, or catch fish, or work in face to face retailing, or provide emergency services, or transport.

You can't play basketball from home either.

NBA have suspended the season indefinitely. 

[Van wink 2,994]

9 hours ago, Essjayess said:

even if this is reliable what does it really prove?...that in the short term....if 3 weeks is short term...the numbers  fall dramatically. But then what? How long do the citizens of Codogno expect to have to wait  until normality resumes?  Until Italy has zero cases? No going to happen...this virus is with us long term. Also  it only takes 1 infected person to  restart it all again..that in a nutshell is the conundrum facing the entire planet now....that lockdown is socially and economically harsh and destroying, even if its necessary to bring numbers down...but its far from certain in a very short time span it cant re occur again. Even in China after a much longer period of stringent lockdown than Italy there are still over 16,000 active cases and over 4,000 serious / critical...China is far from done with Coronavirus..and i honestly believe  lockdowns are only necessary when things do get as bad as in Lombardy...not before. Even then, lockdowns are not going to magically make this virus  go away..ultimately , most people on this planet will catch this virus...who knows how long that will take, but thats the reality.

It’s all about delay to prevent the collapse of the NHS. When you look at the exponential way the cases grew in Italy there must be an argument to take the more draconian actions now rather than wait for disaster and react.

I like T was very supportive of the way the government were dealing with this and I have huge confidence in the experts in public health we have in the U.K., my suspicion however now is that government is providing inertia to moving forward to the next phase and that expert opinion would be to act now. I have to say that I was impressed with the measures announced in the budget but just feel that government, across parties are nervous about taking the necessary probably unpopular next steps.

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

30 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

It is sensible. However while I have no idea what the precise percentage is my guess is that a clear majority of jobs cannot be done from home. You cannot manufacture a car from home, or catch fish, or work in face to face retailing, or provide emergency services, or transport.

I have a mate who works in a factory making high tech weaponry and they can't get any face masks so haven't got any choice but to stop working to avoid lung cancer and other respiratory diseases. 

Incredible really that their business can be halted by something so simple. Although we could and should blame the business for not being prepared for something like that, this is also showing the government up for lack of disaster planning? 

Something as simple as the face masks you can buy from Wickes bringing a high tech company to its knees.... well in advance of any labour shortage. 

Edited March 12, 2020 by TeemuVanBasten

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

15 minutes ago, ricardo said:

You can't play basketball from home either.

NBA have suspended the season indefinitely. 

At least then there is some good news🌝The only sport🏀 I played I was bored🙄 playing. Cue howls of outrage😡 from fans of  the most trdious sporting activity ever invented...

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

38 minutes ago, JF said:

No of cause not, but removing the people who can work from home from every day interaction in an office environment will likely slow the spread down. 

I work for a bank. We have 9000 employees. 

We only have 1200 employees with company laptops. 

Even if we could magically source more instantly and install all required software (takes 3 hours minimum per machine, we've got like 3 IT guys per 500 employees, impossible).... Our existing security framework only has capacity for 2000 systems being logged in remotely at once. 

In the event that the government demands a total lockdown tomorrow... That bank wouldn't be able to function on Monday.

That's how serious this is.  

Edited March 12, 2020 by TeemuVanBasten

[JF 694]

2 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

I work for a bank. We have 9000 employees. 

We only have 1200 employees with company laptops. 

Even if we could magically source more instantly and install all required software (takes 3 hours minimum per machine, we've got like 3 IT guys per 500 employees, impossible).... Our existing security framework only has capacity for 2000 systems being logged in remotely at once. 

In the event that the government demands a total lockdown tomorrow... That bank wouldn't be able to function on Monday.

That's how serious this is.  

Thanks but I’m aware how serious it is....

[TeemuVanBasten 3,327]

3 minutes ago, JF said:

Thanks but I’m aware how serious it is....

Oh, so sorry for trying to participate in a public conversation by adding some interesting insight into the imminent challenges facing a major domestic business. How silly of me! 

Edited March 12, 2020 by TeemuVanBasten