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paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

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I think you will find we have disease since the start of mankind. If you have human contact you have disease. The greater risk is not from causal contact in wider society but close contact with family and friends. The risk outside is considered low. So if you will want to stop this you segregate everyone and stop them having contact with family and friends and I haven’t seen anyone willing to advocate that. 
 

it is just a practical reality that most of those dying are unproductive so have limited long term economic impact. Everyone makes value judgements on the value of life eg when they vote Tory rather other parties , brexit rather than not with doctors and nurses leaving, watching sport rather than playing sport, and eating fish and chips rather than fruit and veg to take some random examples so I don’t see anyone in the Moral  ascendency.

 And if you think that the Economics impact and resource allocation is not a factor you are kidding yourself

And as Essayess I believe rightly pointed out I suspect all of us have experienced death some of it tragic  and difficult decisions have to be made. There is no eternal life and there is a limit that society is willing to spend on healthcare and in the Uk that is more than some but considerable less than other European countries so we are all party to the current situation  

Personally I am willing to spend more on taxes and health insurance and a healthy sporty life and better healthcare but I fully understand that others make a different value judgement. 

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I think you will find we have disease since the start of mankind. If you have human contact you have disease. The greater risk is not from causal contact in wider society but close contact with family and friends. The risk outside is considered low. So if you will want to stop this you segregate everyone and stop them having contact with family and friends and I haven’t seen anyone willing to advocate that. 
 

it is just a practical reality that most of those dying are unproductive so have limited long term economic impact. Everyone makes value judgements on the value of life eg when they vote Tory rather other parties , brexit rather than not with doctors and nurses leaving, watching sport rather than playing sport, and eating fish and chips rather than fruit and veg to take some random examples so I don’t see anyone in the Moral  ascendency.

 And if you think that the Economics impact and resource allocation is not a factor you are kidding yourself

And as Essayess I believe rightly pointed out I suspect all of us have experienced death some of it tragic  and difficult decisions have to be made. There is no eternal life and there is a limit that society is willing to spend on healthcare and in the Uk that is more than some but considerable less than other European countries so we are all party to the current situation  

Personally I am willing to spend more on taxes and health insurance and a healthy sporty life and better healthcare but I fully understand that others make a different value judgement. 

well its safe to assume you don't have it. I think your cold, heartless, Spock like analysis is indicative of so many recently.

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1 hour ago, Indy said:

I think we need a poll to find out which of the Forum posters are at risk, so we can monitor them!

Lucky for me I don’t have any underlying health issues and being 50 just a youngster! I can certainly see why a few of you guys are concerned! 😂😘

Similar age and health to you. I should be ok. My old man is a high risk but he isn't taking it that seriously.🤨

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High blood pressure seems to be significant factor linked to fatalities from the virus in China

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Patients with hypertension appear to be at a higher risk of dying from the coronavirus, said a top Chinese intensive care doctor who’s been treating critically ill patients since mid-January.

 
 

While there’s been no published research yet explaining why, Chinese doctors working in Wuhan, the central Chinese city where the virus first emerged, have noticed that infected patients with that underlying illness are more likely to slip into severe distress and die.

 
 

Of a group of 170 patients who died in January in Wuhan -- the first wave of casualties caused by a pathogen that’s now raced around the world -- nearly half had hypertension.

 
 

“That’s a very high ratio,” said Du Bin, director of the intensive care unit at Peking Union Medical College Hospital, in an interview with Bloomberg over the phone from Wuhan. He was among a team of top doctors sent to the devastated city two months ago to help treat patients there.

 
 

“From what I was told by other doctors and the data I can see myself, among all the underlying diseases, hypertension is a key dangerous factor,” said Du, one of the most respected critical care experts in China. “Though there is no research published on that yet, we believe hypertension could be an important factor in causing patients to deteriorate, leading to a bad prognosis.”

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12 minutes ago, Herman said:

Similar age and health to you. I should be ok. My old man is a high risk but he isn't taking it that seriously.🤨

Both my parents have been more careful, Herman, it’s all about being careful and sensible. My dad said he’s at a good age and if it’s meant to be it’ll be.....pragmatic but pretty much true, if this doesn’t get him something will eventually, just the way some are.

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1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

I didn't realise you are required, or requested, to shave off any beards and moustaches in quarantine so that the masks fit tighter.

Once again that could cause problems in some areas.

Yes, this is common in the construction industry, for example 

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Just to cheer you up

 

Coronavirus: Worldwide peak will come next winter, scientific model predicts 

A model predicting transmission rates suggests the novel coronavirus could fall during the summer before rising again in winter.

 

Tuesday 10 March 2020 15:40, U

Scientists are warning that even if coronavirus transmissions dip as we head into the spring and summer, such a reduction shouldn't be mistaken for an end to the outbreak.

Instead a reduction of cases during the summer should be seen as a precious opportunity to prepare for next winter, when a new model suggests the virus could infect 100 times more people.

 

In a paper currently undergoing peer-review, research scientists from universities in Basel and Stockholm have modelled the effects of seasonal variation on COVID-19 - the prevalent strain of coronavirus - transmission rates.

Their model suggests we are currently experiencing a "small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere" which will be followed by "a larger peak in winter 2020-21".

Based on other coronaviruses, the researchers believe the transmission rate will indeed drop as we head into spring and summer but then rise again, infecting as many as a 100 million people in total.

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28 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Just to cheer you up

 

Coronavirus: Worldwide peak will come next winter, scientific model predicts 

A model predicting transmission rates suggests the novel coronavirus could fall during the summer before rising again in winter.

 

Tuesday 10 March 2020 15:40, U

Scientists are warning that even if coronavirus transmissions dip as we head into the spring and summer, such a reduction shouldn't be mistaken for an end to the outbreak.

Instead a reduction of cases during the summer should be seen as a precious opportunity to prepare for next winter, when a new model suggests the virus could infect 100 times more people.

 

In a paper currently undergoing peer-review, research scientists from universities in Basel and Stockholm have modelled the effects of seasonal variation on COVID-19 - the prevalent strain of coronavirus - transmission rates.

Their model suggests we are currently experiencing a "small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere" which will be followed by "a larger peak in winter 2020-21".

Based on other coronaviruses, the researchers believe the transmission rate will indeed drop as we head into spring and summer but then rise again, infecting as many as a 100 million people in total.

As bad as that sounds, it’s not, given 7.2 billion people exist, then if you take the 3% death rates 3 million is a drop in the ocean given the 50 million who perished in 1918 outbreak.

Not great but we shouldn’t over react to this, just be ready to do what we can.

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11 minutes ago, Indy said:

As bad as that sounds, it’s not, given 7.2 billion people exist, then if you take the 3% death rates 3 million is a drop in the ocean given the 50 million who perished in 1918 outbreak.

Not great but we shouldn’t over react to this, just be ready to do what we can.

It was the point that it will peak next year that was a little depressing. I think we have to take care with the 3% figure, that seems to be the current finding in nations with well developed health care systems, in the third world, if the virus establishes there I suspect the death rate would be far higher.

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Indeed VW. This is what the UK chief scientific officer is saying that we need to let it run now so it peaks in the summer rather than next winter which is one of the reasons they are not imposing restrictions. Yet. They are saying this diseases exists and can“t be eradicated so they have to manage the timing of the peak and spread it while natural immunity and vaccines and treatments are developed. The CMO and the CSA have far more qualifications experience knowledge and information then punters on social media and you tubers so it would be wise to listen to what they have to say on this one rather than listen to fear. 
 

And it is a lot easier for those at risk with pensions to say  we should shut down for how ever long it takes but other people need to work and have a life. That is why the government is saying they have to strike a difficult balance. The policy also has to consider the vast majority.

I accept this just as I accept that I have no immunity from this. I have a relatively high risk and have made enough so that I don’t have to work so while more stringent measures may suit me personally. I don’t expect policy just to be based on my own self interest. I fully accept that policy should consider the interests of the majority who need to work and get on with their lives. 

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13 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It was the point that it will peak next year that was a little depressing. I think we have to take care with the 3% figure, that seems to be the current finding in nations with well developed health care systems, in the third world, if the virus establishes there I suspect the death rate would be far higher.

Worldometers are showing a figure of 6% death rate worldwide 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Italy is 600+ dead in 1600+ resolved cases 

 

 

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21 minutes ago, T said:

Indeed VW. This is what the UK chief scientific officer is saying that we need to let it run now so it peaks in the summer rather than next winter which is one of the reasons they are not imposing restrictions. Yet. They are saying this diseases exists and can“t be eradicated so they have to manage the timing of the peak and spread it while natural immunity and vaccines and treatments are developed. The CMO and the CSA have far more qualifications experience knowledge and information then punters on social media and you tubers so it would be wise to listen to what they have to say on this one rather than listen to fear. 
 

And it is a lot easier for those at risk with pensions to say  we should shut down for how ever long it takes but other people need to work and have a life. That is why the government is saying they have to strike a difficult balance. The policy also has to consider the vast majority.

I accept this just as I accept that I have no immunity from this. I have a relatively high risk and have made enough so that I don’t have to work so while more stringent measures may suit me personally. I don’t expect policy just to be based on my own self interest. I fully accept that policy should consider the interests of the majority who need to work and get on with their lives. 

I’m not sure how it assists the majority if the health care system collapses due to the number of covid 19 cases being treated?

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The Russians are very quiet on this. Doesn't anyone go there or have they been very strict?

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24 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I’m not sure how it assists the majority if the health care system collapses due to the number of covid 19 cases being treated?

Exactly. It's a complete misnomer that this only affects the elderly. The elderly may die but the effects on the NHS (its collapse) and the economy in general (a shutdown) will affect everyone. It's what the Italians are just discovering. Anybody who thinks they are somehow immune from the impending fall out is living in cloud cuckoo land.

 

By the way I'm 'young' for my age and don't fear the virus. Neither do I think that us boomers have any, or should have any special call on NHS or national resources. The future will always belong to the youngsters.  What the country faces however is a national emergency in every sense of the term ... and I'm very very far from certain that Johnson is up to it.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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Nadine Dorries Health Minister tests positive. 

Been in No 10 and everywhere in government. Seems the virus has just decided to pay Johnson a personal visit. Ouch !

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As you said before let's hope we learn some lessons from this. Small state, low tax, deregulation and other ideas that people have called for are not great long term  policies. Defunding the NHS and privatising social care may have made a handful of people wealthy but have not proved to be of benefit to society in general. 

Time to rethink. 

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49 minutes ago, Herman said:

The Russians are very quiet on this. Doesn't anyone go there or have they been very strict?

Reds are in their beds.....

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Absolutely agree this affects everyone but not only medically. also socially and economically so all of these factors need to be taken into the equation and balanced.
 

Im sure we would all love to be able to control this and would if only there was a simple effective option. But It looks like colds and flu this is not something what ever measures we take we can completely control so we are going to have to learn to cope.  shutting down the world for 18 months is not a viable option so we are going to have to make difficult choices.
 

There are no simple easy right answers. What I do know is that the experts have more knowledge qualifications and information than any of us or any you tuber so they are best placed to make the decisions.

I’ve no doubt that their are scenario options with different impact assessments and we could all have a vox pop on them but I doubt if the public really want to know as the choices are horrible and we know the majority of people are not very good at assessing risk and data and making logical rational decisions 
 

we as a Society decide how much to spend on healthcare and we have decided to spend less than others and to run down the NHS. We as a society decide how healthily we live and the majority have decided that their Heath is not that important. Their choice but not mine. I certainly didn’t vote to run down the NHS. I didn’t vote to lose 10000 EU doctors and nurses. I don’t vote to spend 4bn on Brexit preparations rather than the NHS. I didn’t vote to restrict people working in the NHS and care sectors. I’m not the one who ignores expert medical advice.  I fully respect that other different people have different priorities but maybe it is time for people to rethink their priorities. Personally I think this is a reminder that all countries and people are connected and that people and healthcare are more important than ideologies. . 

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YF 

“by the way I’m young for my age”

😀. Is that what you say on the dating sites? 
( whatever they are ) 

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9 hours ago, Herman said:

The Russians are very quiet on this. Doesn't anyone go there or have they been very strict?

60% vodka does the trick

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

YF 

“by the way I’m young for my age”

😀. Is that what you say on the dating sites? 
( whatever they are ) 

An Englishman abroad always works well 😉.

Truth is I have friends (yes friends) all over the world from 35 + years travelling some in some very surprising places. What I've learnt is that people all over the world are actually the same - good, bad and indifferent but mostly very welcoming even across many political and cultural divides.

That and old Directors never die - they just fade away!

 

On matters more pertinent - amused me (in a nice way) that Dorries has the virus and I guess passed it around her cronies  - seems like the government 'do nothing yet' approach has landed at home. Karma. I hope she gets better soon but most sympathies for the 85 year old mum.

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The only thing Boris has come out with is this wash your hands with soap whilst singing Happy Birthday twice. This is trite.

 

By now they should be emphasising more personal protection for those out and about.

Face masks (N95 n level only, not the cheapies) are the best for personal protection. Eye shields (a form of goggles) should be encouraged  to protect the eyes from "droplets.) 

An N.95 face mask (with disposable filters) stops an infected person from coughing or breathing droplets on to others.

Eye shields protect those not affected from droplets.

 

I had an Amazon delivery yesterday.The chap had no protection. He moves from house to house.He could infect or receive anywhere.

 

This is fundamental

More information about wiping surfaces or wearing gloves should be released. Bleach is as good as anything.

Instead of hiding behind their various stages mantra the people in charge of us should be more concerned with basics.

 

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Looking at the so called scientific model above, i think its far to early to suggest that this virus will have a summer dip and then winter rise. The world needs first to actually go thru the seasons first with a history of this virus before such a model can have any credence. Of course to Northern and Southern hemisphere have their seasons different to each other, then youve quite a few other variations like permanent equatorial regions, tropical regions etc. If anything, in this nation at least, more people spend more time outside, more time  meeting others, socialising etc, in the long summer months than in the winter and as this virus thrives on social contact then im not convinced that this virus will behave according to this particular model.

Looking at the last day or two at the virus increase in our neighbouring Euro nations,  many are now having daily increases in the 100s, even nations with  much smaller populations than the UK, such as Norway and Denmark. So its almost assured that we to will see this here to, maybe today, if not tomorrow, increases of 200 or 300 rather than 40 or 60. This will im sure be expected by our science and medical experts and will be a key factor in the Cobra meeting today.

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Poland going into proactive mode.

All school's, cinema's, museum's etc closing from Monday.

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55 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

An Englishman abroad always works well 😉.

Truth is I have friends (yes friends) all over the world from 35 + years travelling some in some very surprising places. What I've learnt is that people all over the world are actually the same - good, bad and indifferent but mostly very welcoming even across many political and cultural divides.

That and old Directors never die - they just fade away!

 

On matters more pertinent - amused me (in a nice way) that Dorries has the virus and I guess passed it around her cronies  - seems like the government 'do nothing yet' approach has landed at home. Karma. I hope she gets better soon but most sympathies for the 85 year old mum.

That is very true.

As for a health minister getting Covid 19, it’s very hard not to smile and of course wonder how far this has spread in the commons.

Looking at the age profile of those that lead or the prospective leaders of the US and the total disregard Trump has shown, one wonders where this could all end.

Edited by Van wink
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2 hours ago, Van wink said:

60% vodka does the trick

Vodka now much cheaper than some hand gels. Might be worth thinking about it (if it actually works of course). 

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32 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Poland going into proactive mode.

All school's, cinema's, museum's etc closing from Monday.

Noted - I wa supposed to be going there on 2 day trip this month.

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17 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Noted - I wa supposed to be going there on 2 day trip this month.

I must be difficult to plan what with events moving so quickly.

Some however still don't understand, just now stood behind a woman in the chemists spouting off about it being a lot of fuss over a little bit of flu.

Oh deary me.

Edited by ricardo

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11 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I must be difficult to plan what with events moving so quickly.

Some however still don't understand, just now stood behind a woman in the chemists spouting off about it being a lot of fuss over a little bit of flu.

Oh deary me.

Just back from the GP for a somewhat belated flu jab. No hand sanitiser and a touch screen device to announce arrival. Oh deary me indeed. 

Incidentally, the nurse who jabbed me told me that the age range of people hospitalised in Italy is much wider than China 

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