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paul moy

Wuhan coronavirus

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3 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

One poster  made an observation about the virus and hot weather, mentioning Iran.  Its winter, and a lot of Iran, the capital included, is high altitude and mountainous, where it gets  very much colder than here in the UK. 

Thanks Essjayess that was me and it's a good point, particularly about the high altitude.

I was listening to a podcast a couple of days ago and the presenter was trying to put Trump's nonchalant assertion that the virus will die down when the warmer weather comes along. His point was that we don't know enough to assume this will follow the same pattern as flu.

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Just now, Hairy Canary said:

Thanks Essjayess that was me and it's a good point, particularly about the high altitude.

I was listening to a podcast a couple of days ago and the presenter was trying to put Trump's nonchalant assertion that the virus will die down when the warmer weather comes along. His point was that we don't know enough to assume this will follow the same pattern as flu.

Exactly, this virus is different, it lasts longer on surfaces, we are assuming it will be less resilient in warmer weather but we dont know that as yet.

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Capital Economics now saying world economic contraction over the first quarter is likely to be 25%. For the month of February Chinese economic activity effectively ceased altogether.

Oh dear.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Some still unable to see anything but Brexit, unfortunately.

Oh dear.

Have we reached the point where any criticism of Johnson has to be because of Brexit. Some people are getting too defensive and twitchy.

Fact is Johnson only had a cameo disastrous role as Foreign Secretary and is generally 'All mouth and trousers".

This is now his first real test as a minister let alone PM and so far he's not cutting it.

Edited by Yellow Fever

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Oh dear.

Have we reached the point where any criticism of Johnson has to be because of Brexit. Some people are getting too defensive and twitchy.

Fact is Johnson only had a cameo disastrous role as Foreign Secretary and is generally 'All mouth and trousers".

This is now his first real test as a minister let alone PM and so far he's not cutting it.

Its not about Johnson, the Tories, Brexit or even Love Island, its about what you need to do to still be alive this time next year.

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1 minute ago, Rock The Boat said:

Great stock market buying opportunity

Not for a while yet, much further to drop.

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Just looking at the UK alone, right now, it seems that most, if not all of the 19 or so people imfected  here either got it from the  cruise ship, from Iran or Italy, or maybe 1 or  2 medical staff who got it from contact with  ones described here, such as today, the two  new confirmed England cases  had brought it back from Iran, the Welsh case from Northern Italy. This only shows one positive thing that at this moment in time Coronavirus is not being caught or transmitted amongst the home UK population in general. But obviously as the virus seemingly has a roughly stated 14 day incubation period, that situation can change very suddenly. Its a wait and see situation, no cause for stress or panic, but sober awareness certainly and preparedness as best we can as individuals or as family  groups.

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3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its not about Johnson, the Tories, Brexit or even Love Island, its about what you need to do to still be alive this time next year.

 

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6 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Just looking at the UK alone, right now, it seems that most, if not all of the 19 or so people imfected  here either got it from the  cruise ship, from Iran or Italy, or maybe 1 or  2 medical staff who got it from contact with  ones described here, such as today, the two  new confirmed England cases  had brought it back from Iran, the Welsh case from Northern Italy. This only shows one positive thing that at this moment in time Coronavirus is not being caught or transmitted amongst the home UK population in general. But obviously as the virus seemingly has a roughly stated 14 day incubation period, that situation can change very suddenly. Its a wait and see situation, no cause for stress or panic, but sober awareness certainly and preparedness as best we can as individuals or as family  groups.

Good post.

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6 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its not about Johnson, the Tories, Brexit or even Love Island, its about what you need to do to still be alive this time next year.

Ricardo. It sounds to me very much like you are panicking. I'm a bit of a fatalist but whilst I accept it will be messy and frankly there will be many deaths a lot of those would also occur with seasonal flu. If it's as bad as you think why hasn't the govt. already shut down all schools and large gatherings, sport etc. Most of us will get it in a mild way and life will carry on. 

In truth they are acting as actuaries. Cost of x number of mostly elderly deaths vs economic cost to country. That's just a hard fact.

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"In truth they are acting as actuaries. Cost of x number of mostly elderly deaths vs economic cost to country. That's just a hard fact."

Thats the balance that has to be struck, the weak and vulnerable could well be sacrificed.

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41 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Ricardo. It sounds to me very much like you are panicking. I'm a bit of a fatalist but whilst I accept it will be messy and frankly there will be many deaths a lot of those would also occur with seasonal flu. If it's as bad as you think why hasn't the govt. already shut down all schools and large gatherings, sport etc. Most of us will get it in a mild way and life will carry on. 

In truth they are acting as actuaries. Cost of x number of mostly elderly deaths vs economic cost to country. That's just a hard fact.

No panic from me YF, my preparations were made while most were saying "nothing to see here". Remember proper prior planning prevents **** poor performance.😉

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It isn't  a political problem its a geo political one. This is a great opportunity for cooperation from all nations. I doubt it will happen because of parochial and business interests but the clever nations should be pumping ll available resources into this. I don't think for one moment that millions will die like Spanish Flu did after WW1. But the damage to many fragile economies could be disastrous.

Talk about a week is a long time in politics, the stock markets have shown that is the exact opposite when it comes to the world facing a problem.

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3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

 I don't think for one moment that millions will die like Spanish Flu did after WW1. 

I hope you are right but I fear that your post may not age well. For the poorer countries with ramshackle health systems this could be devastating.

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Surrey GP "is latest UK coronavirus infection"

Denis Campbell

Denis Campbell

A GP in Surrey is being taken to one of the UK’s six specialist centres for infectious diseases amid fears he is the latest British case of coronavirus, Denis Campbell, the Guardian’s health policy editor, reports.

The development is understood to have triggered an urgent investigation to see if any of his patients have the coronavirus too.

The case – which would be the 20th to emerge in the UK – has prompted particular concern among health officials trying to limit the spread of Covid-19.

The GP would routinely have seen scores of patients over the course of the last week before he became ill in the last 24 hours.

His diagnosis has yet to be publicly confirmed by Public Health England (PHE), NHS England or the Department of Health and Social Care. Public health chiefs are also worried by the unnamed doctor’s diagnosis because his wife is also a GP.

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For some people who are supposedly unconcerned they appear obsessed with the subject and lacking their usual thick skin.

What more can you do than follow medical advice and ensure you have available any  essential supplies eg medications that can’t be delivered readily and make provision to work from home if necessary where possible  

The harsh reality is that while no doubt a serious concern and disruptive it is generally mild for healthy individuals and it is the old and those with health conditions that are most at risk so overall it will not have a long term disruptive effect on society in the same way as Say climate change.  Devastating for those who get serious ill and die but not for society in the long term. 

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Ricardo. It sounds to me very much like you are panicking. I'm a bit of a fatalist but whilst I accept it will be messy and frankly there will be many deaths a lot of those would also occur with seasonal flu. If it's as bad as you think why hasn't the govt. already shut down all schools and large gatherings, sport etc. Most of us will get it in a mild way and life will carry on. 

In truth they are acting as actuaries. Cost of x number of mostly elderly deaths vs economic cost to country. That's just a hard fact.

If they are acting as actuaries then long term it would be cost effective to just let the virus do what it will. Maybe they thinkit will lift a burden off the NHS (after the initial expense of treating everyone).

Diseases mutate much quicker than we can combat them. It's only a matter of time until something unstoppable comes along and wipes out a chunk of the population. 

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And now Turkey is going to let so many refugees flood into western Europe, it wouldn't take much to create chaos if any are carriers. Probably unlikely at the moment but it would only take one to escalate it.

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23 hours ago, Van wink said:

Good interview with J (H) (C) UNT

He did so well that the governmment have caved in and postponed their irresponsible boycott of Today.

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5 minutes ago, Herman said:

He did so well that the governmment have caved in and postponed their irresponsible boycott of Today.

Good, whose on today?

Edited by Van wink

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3 minutes ago, Herman said:

Who's.

Erm, health minister Argar?!

Whooo.... good stuff.

Good article about Spanish flu, crucial point in there is that Spanish flu had a 2 day incubation period, this one is thought to be 14 which has huge significance. Controlling outbreaks is about isolation  and contact tracing, when you have to go back 14 days that becomes almost impossible to do when you have a number of cases. This is why the clusters in Italy grew so quickly and why we are likely to now see the same here.

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