New Labour Leader

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

3 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

This is nonsense. The parliamentary votes weren't on May's original position, they were on the agreed deals that came from negotiations.

Unless you believe Johnson's deal was actually better than May's, then the opposition are every bit as culpable for where we are as the ERG. As I said, is May's deal had passed then we'd still be in the customs Union, which is exactly what many erstwhile remainers who were against the deal argue we should rejoin.

I'm sorry but all of this is putting the cart in front of the horse with hindsight. There is no excuse for the Tory mess of Brexit.

May was PM - she was supposed to be able to control her party which had a majority. That's why she was PM (and not Corbyn).

She also had a plan - doesn't matter if it was good or bad  - but Labour also had a 'softer'' plan.

If May wanted Labour's 'help' then all she needed to do was to enter into formal discussions with Labour and compromise as in all sensible democracies - yes there were a few discussions but May simply wouldn't (nay couldn't) compromise with Labour because of the ERG loons - party before country etc. End result she couldn't command the house and lost anyway.

As many predicted - the Brexiteers would always eventually blame everybody and anybody but themselves for their own shortcomings (it's a common trait with 'populism' - it needs an 'enemy' to blame) and blaming Labour is the most absurd of all.

Edited July 10, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[sonyc 5,510]

1 hour ago, 1902 said:

The membership are a different matter, because frankly the conservatives members are significantly to the right of a fair chunk of their voters I suspect

Looking at a few sources and news feeds I reckon you're correct that the 'selectorate' (older) want someone to the right of centre, probably not someone who was a remain voter - plus they want to hear all the usual platitudes from candidates being in favour of low tax . They won't be voting for what is right for the country.

Tugenhat is already being attacked because (shock horror) he lives in France, loves all things European and even has a French wife. That is enough to condemn him.

It doesn't feel like there will be any so-called reset of the party. 12 years of rule seems to have shifted the party well to the right. Even our main right wing poster on here is backing Braverman or Badenoch (I suppose it could be a complete wind up).

There are massive problems ahead, not least Ukraine and pressure on defence spending, global supply chain problems, the ongoing Brexit divorce and NI Protocol and the likelihood of recession coming.

Inflation rises, GDP falls, the highest rates of taxation seen for a long time (Sunak and Johnson's tax rises of 2% in the last two years match Blair & Brown's in 10 years...the latter didn't have the fall out of Covid of course), trade and UK workforce issues (actual numbers, productivity rates, import dependency, pent up wage demands, industrial unrest)...all make for a terrible combination. A struggle with two or three of the above challenges is hard enough.

Add to this miserable economic backdrop the concerning widening of inequalities in society and it is worrying. 

I've heard very little from any candidate about the above apart from the matter of lowering taxes. Like that will sort everything, that it will generate competition. Cloud cuckoo land.

I HAVE heard about the ECHR, Rwanda and 'wokery' .... just see these comments as appealing to a very negative view of human nature - the demonisation of immigrants and the usual fears about foreigners.

Not one candidate has spoken of the fall away of investment in science or the evolving separation from Horizon, Europe - which will lead to a brain drain (though Hunt did allude to the UK having the potential to be like Silicon Valley - under the 'advantages' and 'freedoms' that Brexit has given us!).

I had hoped for some talk of renewal of the party - perhaps more detailed plans. Surely, these candidates have had weeks if not months to think about what they would do? So far, it's been a menu of the vaguest of ideas. 

The best candidate (Wallace?) has declined to run. But as others have said, it is a poisoned chalice. There are big problems right on the horizon.Time will ebb away faster than they think. The scenes in Sri Lanka are a concern but who could say we won't get social and civic unrest here in the next year?

In summary, these Tory candidates seem very lightweight!

 

Edited July 10, 2022 by sonyc
Paragraphs

[littleyellowbirdie 2,542]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm sorry but all of this is putting the cart in front of the horse with hindsight. There is no excuse for the Tory mess of Brexit.

May was PM - she was supposed to be able to control her party which had a majority. That's why she was PM (and not Corbyn).

She also had a plan - doesn't matter if it was good or bad  - but Labour also had a 'softer'' plan.

If May wanted Labour's 'help' then all she needed to do was to enter into formal discussions with Labour and compromise as in all sensible democracies - yes there were a few discussions but May simply wouldn't (nay couldn't) compromise with Labour because of the ERG loons - party before country etc. End result she couldn't command the house and lost anyway.

As many predicted - the Brexiteers would always eventually blame everybody and anybody but themselves for their own shortcomings (it's a common trait with 'populism' - it needs an 'enemy' to blame) and blaming Labour is the most absurd of all.

Oh right. Well, I suppose we could scrap hindsight entirely in that case and just accept that the Brexiteers got everything they wanted. We're out of the EU out of the single market, and out of the Customs Union.

Maybe it's not such  a bad idea at that. But if you do want to play the hindsight game then I'm sure there are plenty of remain-minded MPs in parliament on the opposition benches that kick themselves for not just voting for TM's deal... with hindsight. 

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

5 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Oh right. Well, I suppose we could scrap hindsight entirely in that case and just accept that the Brexiteers got everything they wanted. We're out of the EU out of the single market, and out of the Customs Union.

Maybe it's not such  a bad idea at that. But if you do want to play the hindsight game then I'm sure there are plenty of remain-minded MPs in parliament on the opposition benches that kick themselves for not just voting for TM's deal... with hindsight. 

Nothing wrong with hindsight - except there is nobody but the government of the day to blame for the mess the made. They had control of the negotiations nobody else.

The will forever own it.

 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,542]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Nothing wrong with hindsight - except there is nobody but the government of the day to blame for the mess the made. They had control of the negotiations nobody else.

The will forever own it.

 

You can think that if you like, but those who claimed to be determined to deliver on the referendum result, but in practise who tried to prevent any sort of mitigation will always bear some responsibility in reality for finishing up with a more extreme outcome, as elected representatives who misled the public in terms of their intent. The only ones in opposition who deserve respect on that score are the lib Dems, and I suppose the SNP and Plaid Cymru.

Edited July 11, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[horsefly 4,297]

15 hours ago, 1902 said:

There's a big group of Tory MPs who feel this group were useless and that they couldn't get a look in because they were not sufficiently loyal to Johnson. They might love it.

No doubt! But the final say will be the constituency party members. Just can't see them voting for Tugendhat (he's a bit too lefty for them).

[A Load of Squit 5,161]

8 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Oh right. Well, I suppose we could scrap hindsight entirely in that case and just accept that the Brexiteers got everything they wanted. We're out of the EU out of the single market, and out of the Customs Union.

 

The Brexiteers told us we could stay in the Single Market and the Custom Union so they didn't get what they wanted.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,542]

2 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

The Brexiteers told us we could stay in the Single Market and the Custom Union so they didn't get what they wanted.

Different brexiteers told the public lots of different things. The question was whether or not to remain in the EU, not what people wanted to do after they left the EU. In fact, most of the remain campaign was keen to make this very point after the election result. 

Edited July 11, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

So both sides can blame the ballot paper.

[canarydan23 4,060]

2 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

You can think that if you like

I suspect he probably will. Just like how he thinks the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, how he thinks night follows day and how he thinks apples are apples and oranges are oranges.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,542]

46 minutes ago, canarydan23 said:

I suspect he probably will. Just like how he thinks the sun rises in the east and sets in the west, how he thinks night follows day and how he thinks apples are apples and oranges are oranges.

You're getting facts mixed up with opinions. It's a common problem these days. 

[canarydan23 4,060]

Just now, littleyellowbirdie said:

You're getting facts mixed up with opinions. It's a common problem these days. 

The fact you're aware it's a problem is the first step to remedying it. You just need to take the next step, you're so close...

[littleyellowbirdie 2,542]

2 minutes ago, canarydan23 said:

The fact you're aware it's a problem is the first step to remedying it. You just need to take the next step, you're so close...

It's your problem, not mine, as evidenced by the fact that you think that the sun rising in the East and setting in the West is comparable to opinions on responsibility and accountability in a complicated political scenario. Go back to school.

 

Edited July 11, 2022 by littleyellowbirdie

[canarydan23 4,060]

1 minute ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

It's your problem, not mine, as evidenced by the fact that you think that the sun rising in the east and setting in the West is comparable to opinions on responsibility and accountability in a complicated political scenario. Go back to school.

 

It's not that complicated. The fact that you think it is probably explains why you're arriving at bizarre conclusions.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,542]

Just now, canarydan23 said:

It's not that complicated. The fact that you think it is probably explains why you're arriving at bizarre conclusions.

It's bloody complicated. It would only seem simple to a moron without the capacity to appreciate it. 

[Herman 9,754]

Blimey.

 

[Wings of a Sparrow 1,413]

15 minutes ago, Herman said:

Blimey.

 

Blimey indeed!

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

23 minutes ago, Herman said:

Blimey.

 

Thrice Blimey!

Makes you wonder whether the deserting Tory supporters were:

1. Actually sorry to see Johnson go!???!!
2. Horrified to see the parade of alternative 'talent' within their party 😂
3. Have finally woken up to the fact that their party is so corrupt and incompetent it doesn't really matter who leads it 🙄 

Hopefully it's option 3 😄

Edited July 11, 2022 by Creative Midfielder

[Herman 9,754]

32 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Thrice Blimey!

Makes you wonder whether the deserting Tory supporters were:

1. Actually sorry to see Johnson go!???!!
2. Horrified to see the parade of alternative 'talent' within their party 😂
3. Have finally woken up to the fact that their party is so corrupt and incompetent it doesn't really matter who leads it 🙄 

Hopefully it's option 3 😄

I sadly think number 1 is quite high. The amount of people that did "vote for Boris" has been a common whinge I have heard.

[horsefly 4,297]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

Blimey.

 

May I take the opportunity to add a fourth "blimey" to the list. Which is ironic, because fourth is the position the Tories are headed for in the next general election if they choose one of the many loony egomaniacs currently deluded enough to think they could lead the country when they don't possess the nous to lead a dog on a walk.

[1902 1,167]

2 hours ago, Herman said:

Blimey.

 

I'm sorry to point this out but even a short glance at polling from the last few months shows you that they are next to useless. 

This has a 15 point Labour leader, but Opinium had a poll with a 5 point Labour lead (with a margin of error of 2) That only comes from differences of methodology. 

In other words, when margin of error is included, public polling suggests labour could be 1 point ahead or 19 points in front. 

Additionally, that will shift as soon as they have another leader, not sure for how long, but I think whoever wins should call an election immediately before the winter if they are smart, they will need the honeymoon bounce.

Edited July 11, 2022 by 1902

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

I won't blaspheme with blimey so will just say crikey😂

[KiwiScot 1,443]

Starmers latest problem is a reminder that although the loony left that took over the party and elected Corbyn have not gone away merely subdued. I can easily see them chuck Starmer under the bus once in goverment.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

On 11/07/2022 at 20:00, 1902 said:

I'm sorry to point this out but even a short glance at polling from the last few months shows you that they are next to useless. 

This has a 15 point Labour leader, but Opinium had a poll with a 5 point Labour lead (with a margin of error of 2) That only comes from differences of methodology. 

In other words, when margin of error is included, public polling suggests labour could be 1 point ahead or 19 points in front. 

Additionally, that will shift as soon as they have another leader, not sure for how long, but I think whoever wins should call an election immediately before the winter if they are smart, they will need the honeymoon bounce.

I wouldn't pin too many hopes on differences in methodlogy if I were you 😄

Of course no-one expects the results of specific polls to be exactly right but they do normally show trends reasonably accurately especially if you factor in a range of polls, so maybe this is more meaningful:

What I would take from that is that during the second half of last year there was a slowish but steady reversal in the respective positions of the Tory & Labour party and that by the end of the year a comfortable Tory lead had been turned into a comfortable Labour lead. So far this year the Tories haven't managed to reverse that situation at all - even Johnson's attempts to upgrade his daily photo ops from English schools/hospitals to Kyiv only produced a small and very temporary uplift in Tory fortunes.

The other standout point IMO is that it isn't just to Labour that the Tories have shed votes to, other opposition parties but especially the Lib Dems have been picking votes at the Tories' expense. You may not like what the opinion polls are telling you but the trends shown above have also to some extent been validated by real elections, both local and by-elections.

There could be a new leader bounce but if, as looks likely, Truss gets it then I suspect it will be another short and temporary bounce - the hardcore members of the Tory Party may like her but I think the wider electorate will beg to differ, and Starmer will think all his Christmas's have come at once.

Edited July 29, 2022 by Creative Midfielder

[1902 1,167]

1 minute ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I wouldn't pin too many hopes on differences in methodlogy if I were you 😄

Of course no-one expects the results of specific polls to be exactly right but they do normally show trends reasonably accurately especially if you factor in a range of polls, so maybe this is more meaningful:

What I would take from that is that during the second half of last year there was a slowish but steady reversal in the respective positions of the Tory & Labour party and that by the end of the year a comfortable Tory lead had been turned into a comfortable Labour lead. So far this year the Tories haven't managed to reverse that situation at all - even Johnson's attempts to upgrade his daily photo ops from English schools/hospitals to Kyiv only produced a small and very temporary uplift in Tory fortunes.

The other standout point IMO is that it isn't just to Labour that the Tories have shed votes to, other opposition parties but especially the Lib Dems have been picking votes at the Tories' expense. You may not like what the opinion polls are telling you but the trends shown above have also to some extent been validated by real elections, both local and by-elections.

There could be a new leader bounce but if, as looks likely, Truss gets it then I suspect it will be another short and temporary bounce - the hardcore members of the Tory Party may like her but I think the wider electorate will beg to differ, and Starmer will think all his Christmas's have come at once.

You have me all wrong. I'm just not getting my hopes up.

It is more likely that Labour have a considerable lead. However, the outlying polling company isn't necessarily wrong (see survation 2017) and it's difficult to read a lot into this polling. 

MRP polls have proven more reliable recently and unfortunately we haven't had one for a long time.

I'm firmly of the opinion that Truss would be a disaster for the Conservatives as well. I can't believe that she is a genuine candidate to be prime minister.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187]

In pub, wrong thread 😳

 

Edited July 29, 2022 by How I Wrote Elastic Man

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

On 29/07/2022 at 10:09, KiwiScot said:

Starmers latest problem is a reminder that although the loony left that took over the party and elected Corbyn have not gone away merely subdued. I can easily see them chuck Starmer under the bus once in goverment.

Staarmer in Government? you obviously have not read the Forde report. here you go

https://www.fordeinquiry.org/forde-inquiry-report/

and for all the mealy mouthing in it, here i9s a review of this report by a journalist who does not work for right wing media barons, Murdcock or anybody else.

https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2022/07/the-forde-report-and-the-labour-right/

[PurpleCanary 5,557]

If you Spoonerise the name of the Labour leader it becomes Steir Karmer, which can be read as Steer calmer. I know some party members and supporters want him to be more aggressive and have more clearly socialist policies.

But him steering a calm course, in stark contrast to Corbyn and to Johnson and to whichever unicorn-spouting liar becomes prime minister, provides gives the best chance of the Tories being defeated at the next election.

[Herman 9,754]

The Corbynites clearly don't want Labour to be in government. 

[king canary 7,603]

56 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

If you Spoonerise the name of the Labour leader it becomes Steir Karmer, which can be read as Steer calmer. I know some party members and supporters want him to be more aggressive and have more clearly socialist policies.

But him steering a calm course, in stark contrast to Corbyn and to Johnson and to whichever unicorn-spouting liar becomes prime minister, provides gives the best chance of the Tories being defeated at the next election.

I both agree and disagree. I do think he needs to avoid a sudden lurch in one direction or another. However, polling suggests he has two problems right now...

1. The dropping Tory support isn't necessarily firming up into solid Labour support. Instead there are an increased number of 'don't knows' on the Tory side that he needs to win over.
2. The public doesn't know what a Kier Starmer Labour Party really stands for. The further away from an election we are the less that matters but in order to capitalise on Tory issues he could do with carving out a clear position.  

The handling of the strikes to me still suggests someone who is trying a bit too hard to be all things to all people. He needs to keep the focus on cost of living and start giving some solid ideas of what Labour would do to help to make sure he and the party can be seen as the ones who actually 'get it.'