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lake district canary

The Great Escape mini-league

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A win on Saturday while the others lose puts us right back in the mix and it heaps a bit more pressure on the others

Bournemouth at Burnley

Brighton at Sheff Utd

Villa at Southampton

Watford at Man Utd

West Ham at Liverpool

It could be a great weekend to get 3 points.

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Does anyone actually have the mini league stats? It used to be really interesting and relevant ie the performance of the 6 teams against each other . Simply showing the bottom six teams after one of them has lost to Man City is missing the point .

in the years that we have stayed up our performance against those around us has been critical. These are the relevant 6 pointers . The teams that do best in the “mini league” will stay up . I can only see one win against Bournemouth ? That must put us at the bottom of the pile? 

 

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The current bottom six is...

  • Brighton (played once, lost)
  • Bournemouth (played twice, won one, drew one)
  • Villa (played twice, lost twice)
  • West Ham (played once, lost)
  • Watford (played once, lost)
  • Norwich

So we've taken 4 points from a possible 21 so far. 

 

 

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Worked it out from here. Here's the table, and it's not pretty...

                              P   W   D   L   Pts   PPG
West Ham:         7    3    4    0    13    1.86      Games to come: Norwich (a) Apr 25; Watford (a) May 2; Aston Villa (h) May 17
Aston Villa:         9    4    2    3   14    1.56       Games to come: West Ham (a) May 17
Brighton:             9    3    4    2   13     1.44      Games to come: Norwich (a) Apr 11
Watford:             8    3    2    3    11    1.38      Games to come: Norwich (h) Apr 18; West Ham (h) May 2
Bournemouth:   10   3    3   4    12    1.20
Norwich:             7    1    1    5     4     0.57      Games to come: Brighton (h) Apr 11; Watford (a) Apr 18; West Ham (h) Apr 25

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1 minute ago, Feedthewolf said:

Worked it out from here. Here's the table, and it's not pretty...

                              P   W   D   L   Pts   PPG
West Ham:         7    3    4    0    13    1.86      Games to come: Norwich (a) Apr 25; Watford (a) May 2; Aston Villa (h) May 17
Aston Villa:         9    4    2    3   14    1.56       Games to come: West Ham (a) May 17
Brighton:             9    3    4    2   13     1.44      Games to come: Norwich (a) Apr 11
Watford:             8    3    2    3    11    1.38      Games to come: Norwich (h) Apr 18; West Ham (h) May 2
Bournemouth:   10   3    3   4    12    1.20
Norwich:             7    1    1    5     4     0.57      Games to come: Brighton (h) Apr 11; Watford (a) Apr 18; West Ham (h) Apr 25

I hereby nominate Wolfo as Official  Pinkun  Forum Nerdy Geek Statsman . OPFNGS in short. Always at the ready to provide readable statistical info at the drop of a green and yellow bobble hat. 

Super stuff as usual  Wolfo.

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statto.jpg.bd1e46e0405d16f7397b8305c3c529f1.jpg

Why thank you, Corko. May I also refer you to my Meisterwerk, which is being updated shortly: Contract conundrums. If anyone else needs any numbers crunching, just holler.

 

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10 hours ago, Canary Wundaboy said:

Would love to see us get 3 points at Wolves this weekend.

Putting aside the nerdy stuff 🤓, which is based on the past not the future, if we get three points and the other five clubs draw or lose, we give ourselves a foothold to build from.  Easier said than done and even a draw would be a good result away from home, but if a turn around is to happen it has to start somewhere. 

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11 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

Putting aside the nerdy stuff 🤓, which is based on the past not the future, if we get three points and the other five clubs draw or lose, we give ourselves a foothold to build from.  Easier said than done and even a draw would be a good result away from home, but if a turn around is to happen it has to start somewhere. 

Yes, let us put aside nerdy stuff like...how many points we have?

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14 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

Putting aside the nerdy stuff 🤓, which is based on the past not the future, if we get three points and the other five clubs draw or lose, we give ourselves a foothold to build from.  Easier said than done and even a draw would be a good result away from home, but if a turn around is to happen it has to start somewhere. 

The turnaround had to happen months ago and didn’t.

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16 minutes ago, king canary said:

Yes, let us put aside nerdy stuff like...how many points we have?

It all depends what you want to focus on. Focus on what is possible and it it could happen. Focus on negative stuff and it is almost certain not to happen. 

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19 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

The turnaround had to happen months ago and didn’t.

It's not about what happened or didn't happen months ago it's about what will happen from here on in.

We have to forget about the past and concentrate on the future

Actually, when you look at the bottom 6, our position in relation to the other 5 clubs in it, is not as bad as it looked like being some months ago and the prospect of escaping is not as daunting as it might have been.

If we could just get 2 back to back wins now I think we would give ourselves a great chance of surviving

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8 minutes ago, Making Plans said:

It's not about what happened or didn't happen months ago it's about what will happen from here on in.

We have to forget about the past and concentrate on the future

Actually, when you look at the bottom 6, our position in relation to the other 5 clubs in it, is not as bad as it looked like being some months ago and the prospect of escaping is not as daunting as it might have been.

If we could just get 2 back to back wins now I think we would give ourselves a great chance of surviving

When this thread was first posted we were 8 points off 17th with 16 games to go.

We're now 7 points off 17th with 12 games to go. 

Our position really hasn't improved all that much.

 

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1 hour ago, king canary said:

When this thread was first posted we were 8 points off 17th with 16 games to go.

We're now 7 points off 17th with 12 games to go. 

Our position really hasn't improved all that much.

 

The point that I was trying to make was that our postion could have been that much worse now (e.g. 10 points adrift) but in the event (a) it hasn't got any worse and (b) it has got better by 1 point.

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2 hours ago, king canary said:

Yes, let us put aside nerdy stuff like...how many points we have?

Perhaps the Premier League will allow us some “future points” based on how lovely our club is .  We shouldn't dwell on the past and how many points we have . 
 

But back in the real world FTW has identified 3 must win games there . We need to gain points and take them off the teams around us. So far we have won 1 must win. 

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2 hours ago, Making Plans said:

 

Actually, when you look at the bottom 6, our position in relation to the other 5 clubs in it, is not as bad as it looked like being some months ago and the prospect of escaping is not as daunting as it might have been.

If we could just get 2 back to back wins now I think we would give ourselves a great chance of surviving

The problem is we’ve struggled to get wins at all never mind back-to-backs.

By the way because of Wolves European commitments our game has been moved back a day to Sunday with a 2pm KO.

At least it’ll give you and LDC an extra day to salivate if Saturday’s results fall the right way 😀 😉

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4 minutes ago, ......and Smith must score. said:

The problem is we’ve struggled to get wins at all never mind back-to-backs.

By the way because of Wolves European commitments our game has been moved back a day to Sunday with a 2pm KO.

At least it’ll give you and LDC an extra day to salivate if Saturday’s results fall the right way 😀 😉

So much frustration over the last few weeks with our oh so close matches and not much to show for it, it's difficult to get too excited, so I'll salivate after our match - if we win it - but not before 🙂.  

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So only Brighton getting a point in those above the bottom three.  Gives all the bottom three clubs a chance to make headway with their game in hand....but then Watford away at ManUtd, West Ham away at Liverpool. Tough game for us too, but fortune favours the brave! COYY!

                        Pl       Pts

15. Brighton      27       28

16. Bn'mouth    27       26

17. Villa              27      25

18. West Ham   26      24

19. Watford        26     24

20. Norwich       26     18

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Think this thread can be locked now.

Everytime you start to get a bit of hope that we might be turning things around and escape might just be possible Farke and his players manage to turn in yet another p*ss poor performance.

The door that was slighly ajar yesterday has been firmly slammed shut due to our own making and it won't be opening anytime soon.

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On 23/02/2020 at 16:55, Making Plans said:

Think this thread can be locked now.

Locked my ar*e.  There are still eleven games left.  Win the next game and we are in the fight.  Believe it!

                       Pl       Pts

15. Brighton      27       28

16. Bn'mouth    27       26

17. Villa              27      25

18. West Ham   27      24

19. Watford        27     24

20. Norwich       27     18

 

Edited by lake district canary

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I didn't expect unto get anything at Wolves, and we didn't. Will we get something against Leicester?

I wouldn't be surprised, the Norwich crowd have been up for it for several weeks now and that works wonders for a team.

Edited by Surfer

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1 minute ago, lake district canary said:

Locked my ar*e.  There are still eleven games left.  Win the next game and we are in the fight.  Believe it!

                       Pl       Pts

15. Brighton      27       28

16. Bn'mouth    27       26

17. Villa              27      25

18. West Ham   26      24

19. Watford        27     24

20. Norwich       27     18

 

Why did I read that like Jim Royale? I might point out that it has nothing to do with your profile pic - that’s just complete coincidence, Lakey 😜

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Just for the record, I’ve had a quick look at those who are above us and Bournemouth look to have a very tough set of games, Watford & West Ham look to have the easiest run of home games and both will possibly get to 36 points, with the goal diff we need to get to 37 points, that’s 6 wins and a draw.

Not looking to great for us, Villa  or Bournemouth.

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2 minutes ago, Indy said:

Just for the record, I’ve had a quick look at those who are above us and Bournemouth look to have a very tough set of games, Watford & West Ham look to have the easiest run of home games and both will possibly get to 36 points, with the goal diff we need to get to 37 points, that’s 6 wins and a draw.

Not looking to great for us, Villa  or Bournemouth.

I have a strong feeling West Ham are doomed. By the time their ‘better fixtures’ come round I think they’ll be in complete pieces, under too much pressure. The fans are largely against the hierarchy there, and it doesn’t appear to be making it a very pleasant place for the West Ham players to be playing their trade, I just can’t see that changing, just enhancing if anything. Their new £20mil signing from the Championship, Jarrod Bowen, isn’t even getting a game, the reasons for that I do not know, but I’m in the camp that he’ll be another Pritchard - good in the champ but no star at the top table. And finally, David Moyes is a dinosaur, he was better in The Simpson’s.

We might be going down, but if we do, those maroon b@stards will be coming with us!

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1 minute ago, Indy said:

Just for the record, I’ve had a quick look at those who are above us and Bournemouth look to have a very tough set of games, Watford & West Ham look to have the easiest run of home games and both will possibly get to 36 points, with the goal diff we need to get to 37 points, that’s 6 wins and a draw.

Not looking to great for us, Villa  or Bournemouth.

Take a look at Brighton fixtures -

Away to - Leicester, Wolves, Norwich, Southampton, Burnley

Home to - Palace, Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle

Can't see them picking up many points there and if we are back in the hunt by the time we play them in April and can beat them, they could well struggle to get even 10 points out of that lot.

To stay up we imo would need at least 38 points, so would need to win at least six games and draw two.  Even Newcastle who are dreadful, are not totally safe.

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1 minute ago, Alex Moss said:

I have a strong feeling West Ham are doomed. By the time their ‘better fixtures’ come round I think they’ll be in complete pieces, under too much pressure. The fans are largely against the hierarchy there, and it doesn’t appear to be making it a very pleasant place for the West Ham players to be playing their trade, I just can’t see that changing, just enhancing if anything. Their new £20mil signing from the Championship, Jarrod Bowen, isn’t even getting a game, the reasons for that I do not know, but I’m in the camp that he’ll be another Pritchard - good in the champ but no star at the top table. And finally, David Moyes is a dinosaur, he was better in The Simpson’s.

We might be going down, but if we do, those maroon b@stards will be coming with us!

Must admit I have little love for either Villa nor Spam so would love them both down with us. Brady and her ****ty comments in the summer would be great.

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1 minute ago, lake district canary said:

Take a look at Brighton fixtures -

Away to - Leicester, Wolves, Norwich, Southampton, Burnley

Home to - Palace, Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle

Can't see them picking up many points there and if we are back in the hunt by the time we play them in April and can beat them, they could well struggle to get even 10 points out of that lot.

To stay up we imo would need at least 38 points, so would need to win at least six games and draw two.  Even Newcastle who are dreadful, are not totally safe.

They have 10 points on us and points on others, win against two of those sides puts them on 34 points and a couple draws will see them safe in my book. But you never know.

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2 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

Take a look at Brighton fixtures -

Away to - Leicester, Wolves, Norwich, Southampton, Burnley

Home to - Palace, Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle

Can't see them picking up many points there and if we are back in the hunt by the time we play them in April and can beat them, they could well struggle to get even 10 points out of that lot.

To stay up we imo would need at least 38 points, so would need to win at least six games and draw two.  Even Newcastle who are dreadful, are not totally safe.

 

2 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

Take a look at Brighton fixtures -

Away to - Leicester, Wolves, Norwich, Southampton, Burnley

Home to - Palace, Arsenal, Man Utd, Liverpool, Man City, Newcastle

Can't see them picking up many points there and if we are back in the hunt by the time we play them in April and can beat them, they could well struggle to get even 10 points out of that lot.

To stay up we imo would need at least 38 points, so would need to win at least six games and draw two.  Even Newcastle who are dreadful, are not totally safe.

If that is Brighton’s last fixtures, Lakey, then they are gone! How I wish that bragging idiot Seagulls supporter would come back on here, bet he ain’t so smug and arrogant now!

Damn, it’s so frustrating looking at West Ham and Brighton. If our boys get it together like I know they can, we really could do this. What a win against Leicester could do, confidence is everything.

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27 minutes ago, Surfer said:

I didn't expect unto get anything at Wolves, and we didn't. Will we get something against Leicester?

I wouldn't be surprised, the Norwich crowd have been up for it for several weeks now and that works wonders for a team.

I didn't expect us to get anything either. 

I also didn't expect such a timid performance and the ease with which Wolves beat us 3-0.

I have zero confidence we'll win our next game. Even if we do though I have very little confidence we wouldn't go an undo the good work by losing the next one.

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