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Yellowhammer

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I also believe that both Webber and Farke will see out their contracts.

Regardless, we must continue to follow this path they're setting for us with developing and investing in youth, playing good, possession based attacking football and being sensible when it comes to the signings we do make.

The amount of money we COULD stand to make from selling our best is eye-watering!

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At this point it would be foolish to throw large sums around to try and stay up- the risk/reward situation is too imbalanced. 

That doesn't mean we shouldn't sign players- just that anyone we do needs to be someone who will be happy to play in the Championship next season 

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1 hour ago, Mason 47 said:

The key thing that has done for us this year is immaturity at this level. We didn't plan to be this high, this quickly and it shows.

I don't believe it's as simple as we aren't as strong as some teams and not as skilful as the rest. What it comes down to is that the team isn't mentally assured enough to impose our game on the opposition for long enough; bigger sides draw us into a running match and more footballing sides tempt us into playing openly to try and take advantage.

It's an experience issue both on the coaching side and on the playing staff. Given that before this season our squad had a total of just 139 PL appearances (with over half just being Alex Tettey) it's not that surprising- disappointing, but not surprising.

At the end of the day, Stuart Webber is a fiercely ambitious guy; he walked away from Huddersfield because they scrapped their academy and that wasnt to his liking. I can't believe for a second that he would spend so little towards survival this year unless there was a very, very good reason.

 

Erm. Wasn't it the case that Huddersfield scrapped their academy after Webber walked away and primarily because it wasn;t producing any players for them. Which may or may not be a concern given the fact that Weaver was heading it up and Webber presumably was involved with it as well. I don;t recall it ever being said that Webber walked away from Hudds because they scrapped their academy.

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34 minutes ago, ROBFLECK said:

I have to agree DCB . But there's a good point being made about the money just not being there ... This promotion was unexpected. But I agree that there should have been some more in the kitty , even if this would have been a risk on the financial side

No.

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2 hours ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

There you go again Jim...........

If we stay up it will be because we 'got lucky' 😂🤣

Well Webber himself said that if all teams play to their natural level then we finish 19th or 20th so we are relying on others under performing and/or us over performing. So yes I would say it we stay up it will be in part because things have gone our way. As it happens, absolutely nothing luck wise has gone our way so far and our rivals seem to pick up regular fortuitous 3 point hauls which has been something of a double whammy.

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23 minutes ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

As I've explained before Kenny, I've been watching Norwich for 48 seasons now and during that time I've seen us relegated and promoted a number of times - perhaps that's why I'm relatively relaxed at the prospect of us getting relegated this season. 

At the beginning of this season the odds of us getting relegated were about Evens. Therefore I'm not in the least surprised that we're struggling. I'm even less surprised because what we're attempting to do this season is basically to defy the laws of football physics. We've spent so little compared to all the other clubs in the Premier League that it's little short of a miracle that we're being as competitive as we are. When you then add in the horrendous injury list we had earlier in the season and the stitch ups we've received from VAR it's even more of a miracle. 

On Friday I'll be going up to Colney to watch our U23s and in a couple of weeks I'll be going to watch our U18s play Man Utd in the FA Youth Cup. We've got some serious talent coming through from The Academy - we've got a LONG TERM plan - I'm happy with that and I'm not going to get all bent out of shape if we get relegated from the toughest league in the word having spent the football equivalent of 2 and sixpence. 

Fair play but at least we can agree that it is the lack of working capital that is causing us to be uncompetitive in the top flight and if we had in fact stayed up it would have been despite the investment in the 1st team. Having watched City home & away, in the UK & abroad, I would like us to take one of these great opportunities to expand the football club and to maintain Premiership income on a regular basis as it means we get to see better players in the yellow & green. The current owners have been in charge since 1997 so this is truly long term. OTBC

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What has frustrated me most is that we had good players and a real identity and playing style  going up. Arguably so did Sheff Utd and Leeds (who ran out of steam). It's been about fine margins of course because as we all know, except for maybe 4 games, we have been in the ascendancy and dominating in parts of games, only not to win them because of not being able to finish them off. We should be 8 points better off.

Daniel Farke has continued with the style of play he wants. It's his identity and his style he wants for a team. It's a style I like. It will be interesting (unfortunately) to see how Bielsa fares next year. He also has his 'method' and style which seems to have now registered with viewers who hadn't watched Leeds last night, a very offensive style. Will they suffer the same fate as us this year? Will they pile in millions on going up? West Brom are arguably the best team in the Championship on the evidence. I'm sure they will invest next year.

As for the rest of the group, only Brentford appear to have something about them but they would struggle (IMO), if they get promoted. So, should we go down, we ought to be THE favourite to do what Bielsa has done this year...i.e. to continue with our playing identity and culture and demonstrate the gulf in class. This belief is what I am holding on to. Yet, for this to happen, we will need 80% of the 'playing pieces' in tact.

This season has been an unlucky one (VAR) in parts, certainly one that has been 'so near, so far'. We possibly over-delivered last season, I don't know. But if we get relegated (and 9 wins will mean we won't!) I'm confident we will only be there for one season and will make our way up again. Then, who knows what the plan (or ownership) might look like.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

No.

There should have been more in the kitty and there was no reason this would have been risky (See Sheffield Utd) if done professional and in a sensible manner. Is it not risky to for go the millions the premiership offers by not strengthening a couple of positions in the summer? Interest rates at a historical low... etc. Most business I know invest to expand.If you do not you get left behind.

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11 minutes ago, Kenny Foggo said:

There should have been more in the kitty and there was no reason this would have been risky (See Sheffield Utd) if done professional and in a sensible manner. Is it not risky to for go the millions the premiership offers by not strengthening a couple of positions in the summer? Interest rates at a historical low... etc. Most business I know invest to expand.If you do not you get left behind.

I have affinity for this view Foggo but really didn't we invest most of our money on the contract side? We could have released say 4 or 5 players (or sold 1 or 2) and used those funds for new additions.

Yet, we know how the solidarity of that particular team is what supported us getting there. I do agree though that surely Farke will have known he was short of 2 or 3 upgrades. Hasn't really stopped Sheff Utd though. Somehow they've just had a stronger grit-like quality about them. Our play last year (save for I reckon, Leeds when we played like tigers) was much more about creativity, we were swashbuckling at times even ....but you wouldn't say we were especially tough (and here, i'm thinking of my first promotion season in the 71 season when we were built on granite and your namesake was on the wing!).

Edited by sonyc

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10 minutes ago, Kenny Foggo said:

There should have been more in the kitty and there was no reason this would have been risky (See Sheffield Utd) if done professional and in a sensible manner. Is it not risky to for go the millions the premiership offers by not strengthening a couple of positions in the summer? Interest rates at a historical low... etc. Most business I know invest to expand.If you do not you get left behind.

We should have tried to borrow money to buy players?

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1 minute ago, PurpleCanary said:

We should have tried to borrow money to buy players?

Do people borrow to buy houses, cars, laptops, kitchens etc etc. 

If done with a sensible business plan then a club can & successful, with the right owners, borrow to invest in a team knowing that a successful campiagn would see their income go through the roof & 100% improve the club. The plan would alos have dealt with the worse case scenario. 1000s of clubs do it every year around the world.

28% of clubs get promoted back into the premiership after relegation so how is that not risky when historically 56% of clubs stay up in the premiership when promoted?

If not borrowed then the owners should step aside & allow someone with backing to try it. 

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I don't really know what the ongoing issue is with this 'lack of investment' line. I feel like it's an easy thing for people to moan about.

But I recall the so called 5 year plan being banded about, I could be wrong, and I am fully open to being corrected by anyone who remembers it better than I.

Within this 5 year plan (which we are only a year and a half into?):

  • We aimed to be in the Premier League and on our way to being an established Premier League side.
  • A relegation in that time was planned for, being realistic.
  • We aimed to do this with a self-sustained model. No splurges, to ensure to financial wellbeing of the club going forward.

I feel these are the most relevant points currently.

They haven't changed their minds. They haven't suddenly started keeping things from the fans. They are 100% making all the moves that suggest this plan is still in place.

So what is the issue? This sounded like a great plan when they revealed it. But suddenly now we aren't happy with it??

We are all aware promotion in the first season was entirely unexpected, so why not take it as a free hit? To those suggesting we up the spending at risk, that's a very short sighted vision. The equivalent of taking a payday loan because you're definitely convinced you will not be skint this time next month...

To those suggesting the board are lining their pockets - Has it not occurred to you that the lack of spending could possibly ACTUALLY be in the interest of the club? That there is no conspiracy, that we don't all need to invest in tin foil hats?

This could well prevent us being in the same position as when we had to sell Madders only a couple of years ago. That's progress in a short space of time. Our playing assets are ours and nobody can force our hand, we make the terms.

Think back to the financial scare we all knew was real when we were in League 1, had we not won instant promotion we were bang in trouble.

I'm not sure whether some these people above just want the attention of a reaction, are impatient, have very short term vision or just have extremely short memories.

This promotion was unexpected. Our conduct right now could set us up for a more convincing and fruitful assault on the Premier League when the time is right and we have more experience. 

Fortunes change, make hay while the sun shines. Don't spend it all believing that the sun will never set.

 

 

Edited by Flying Dutchman
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Staying up most definitely which is due to our wonderful record of staving off relegation.  The most relegated team from the PL.  Keep on hanging to the impossible dream. 

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2 hours ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

That is my gripe. My overall frustration is not over the prospect of a return to the championship, which I actually like as a division. My frustration is that we have- for the first time in ages- got a really special manager and a good young team and we are not making the most of this rarest of combinations. We have chosen, instead, to look a gift horse in the mouth. 

I believe a modest risk in financial backing in the summer would have secured our place in the premiership this season. We can all see how close we are, and yet how far! Then this team could have added a couple more and onwards and upwards. 

But without that backing we have left our manager with an impossible task (which must frustrate him more than us) and thus lacked the necessary depth and class on the pitch to give it a shot. Only  by two or three decent signings take note, and this is absolutely tragic. Because it will inevitably lead to dropped heads, exits and the breaking up of what we have.

Sure we will have loads of money to spend if we go down- but remove the manager and what of it? Plenty of teams have had cash but poorer managers, etc... Indeed we had exactly that when we blew millions buying every AMC on offer and Naismith, et al...

So back to my bottom line. Really frustrating to see one of the best management playing teams of all NCFC time being given no backing. It seems very short sighted. I think the fans have EVERY reason to call the board out on the enormous risk they are taking in letting us bounce down again. Of course it could work...but it is just as likely, more I think, that it wont. Then the wheels will come off and poor little old Norwich will once again be left asking what if? 

 

2 hours ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

That is my gripe. My overall frustration is not over the prospect of a return to the championship, which I actually like as a division. My frustration is that we have- for the first time in ages- got a really special manager and a good young team and we are not making the most of this rarest of combinations. We have chosen, instead, to look a gift horse in the mouth. 

I believe a modest risk in financial backing in the summer would have secured our place in the premiership this season. We can all see how close we are, and yet how far! Then this team could have added a couple more and onwards and upwards. 

But without that backing we have left our manager with an impossible task (which must frustrate him more than us) and thus lacked the necessary depth and class on the pitch to give it a shot. Only  by two or three decent signings take note, and this is absolutely tragic. Because it will inevitably lead to dropped heads, exits and the breaking up of what we have.

Sure we will have loads of money to spend if we go down- but remove the manager and what of it? Plenty of teams have had cash but poorer managers, etc... Indeed we had exactly that when we blew millions buying every AMC on offer and Naismith, et al...

So back to my bottom line. Really frustrating to see one of the best management playing teams of all NCFC time being given no backing. It seems very short sighted. I think the fans have EVERY reason to call the board out on the enormous risk they are taking in letting us bounce down again. Of course it could work...but it is just as likely, more I think, that it wont. Then the wheels will come off and poor little old Norwich will once again be left asking what if? 

We have a wage policy for a reason and that "all in it together" feel is one of the reasons for our success last season. I really struggle to imagine who we could've signed who would've radically improved the team, who wouldn't have smashed that structure. People moan with hindsight about not signing another CB, yet at the start of the season we had Klose, Godfrey and Zimm, so any incoming CB would have probably ended up fighting with Hanley over fourth spot if it hadn't been for the crippling injury crisis. Who could we have signed on reasonable wages for that position?

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A good post but a few counterpoints...

12 minutes ago, Flying Dutchman said:

So what is the issue? We are all aware promotion in the first season was entirely unexpected, so why not take it as a free hit?

We find ourselves in something of a unique situation in that everything has alined for us- a great manager, a crop of impressive youngsters and excellent momentum. There is no guarantee this set of circumstances will come around again so making the most of them while we have them makes more sense to me than claiming a 'free hit' season.

13 minutes ago, Flying Dutchman said:

The equivalent of taking a payday loan because you're definitely convinced you will not be skint this time next month...

Not really- if money is spent wisely on assets then we can make back more than we spend. 

13 minutes ago, Flying Dutchman said:

To those suggesting the board are lining their pockets - Has it not occurred to you that the lack of spending could possibly ACTUALLY be in the interest of the club? That there is no conspiracy, that we don't all need to invest in tin foil hats?

This is one of my main issues with the succession plan from our current owners- the current spending level is in the best interests of the Smiths and their plan to pass the club to their nephew more than anything.

13 minutes ago, Flying Dutchman said:

That's progress in a short space of time. Our playing assets are ours and nobody can force our hand, we make the terms.

I don't think this is really true- I'm pretty certain most of our prized assets will have release clauses in their new contracts that will be triggered by relegation. 

13 minutes ago, Flying Dutchman said:

This promotion was unexpected. Our conduct right now could set us up for a more convincing and fruitful assault on the Premier League when the time is right and we have more experience. 

This is, of course, the big unknown. If we do go down and bounce back up then great. If we don't it will be seen as a major missed opportunity.

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41 minutes ago, Kenny Foggo said:

There should have been more in the kitty and there was no reason this would have been risky (See Sheffield Utd) if done professional and in a sensible manner. Is it not risky to for go the millions the premiership offers by not strengthening a couple of positions in the summer? Interest rates at a historical low... etc. Most business I know invest to expand.If you do not you get left behind.

Just because you use one club as an example of where it's worked doesn't mean it has a 100% success rate otherwise every club in the prem would simply spend £40m a season for guaranteed improvement.

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If we are hoping and many assuming that virtually half the team is worth about £100M (Aarons, Lewis, Godfrey, Buendia and Cantwell), then what difference would it have made in signing five players for the same amount.

We couldn't have bought a better keeper. Pukki's equivalent would cost a fortune. And the Owls wanted too much for Rhodes. And we won't know about Klose but there aren't many good CB's around. So we are left with a handful of midfield players. We tried with Amadou and that hasn't paid off either.

It isn't that easy is it. And after the shambles of the Alex Neil buying era, I can see the reticence in spending big and paying out large wages.

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He is a realist we won’t be staying it was never the plan to stay up

Top 26 side so bottom of the premier league and getting embarrassed week in week out is all part of the strategy 

you couldn’t make it up 

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4 hours ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Oh come on, survival now and we'd all be calling it a miracle! 

Have you ever seen a team bottom of the pile but still so united, still battling hard, still playing good football and still improving... this is unprecedented but we are capable.... a miracle maybe, but reckon we have more chance of recovery than most... there are some miserable, defeated and negative people on this board and it's a shame really as our club (and i include chiefs, managers, players, coaches and fans in that) got us into this position by working a 'MIRACLE' in the first place.  

Edited by ged in the onion bag
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4 hours ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

It is pretty clear that the board gave up on this season before a ball was kicked. They chose to take the money, avoid risking another Naismith type situation and plan to bounce back on the second time of asking. If it works all well and good. But it is just as likely, if not more, that we will go down, lose players and momentum, choke and fail to be promoted. And this will then lead to further exodus, Webber leaving and being back at stage one. But with less debt. For a season or two.... Guess we better hope they do bounce back up straight away and that the board then finally decide to actually spend enough in a summer window to give us a fighting chance. Something which has never yet happened on promotion. 

That's it in a nutshell. 

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So have we made the wrong investment? Was the old policy of putting every last penny into the first team actually right? To be fair most thought so at the time, then didn't of course when it failed, but now has that pendulum swung again?

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26 minutes ago, king canary said:

A good post but a few counterpoints...

We find ourselves in something of a unique situation in that everything has alined for us- a great manager, a crop of impressive youngsters and excellent momentum. There is no guarantee this set of circumstances will come around again so making the most of them while we have them makes more sense to me than claiming a 'free hit' season.

Not really- if money is spent wisely on assets then we can make back more than we spend. 

This is one of my main issues with the succession plan from our current owners- the current spending level is in the best interests of the Smiths and their plan to pass the club to their nephew more than anything.

I don't think this is really true- I'm pretty certain most of our prized assets will have release clauses in their new contracts that will be triggered by relegation. 

This is, of course, the big unknown. If we do go down and bounce back up then great. If we don't it will be seen as a major missed opportunity.

Some fair and level headed points. A rarity on here too often...!

I do agree this is a special team and setup right now, I am just edgign more towards safety as it stands - Too often we have seen fallen giants in recent years (league position and financially).

Money spent wisely can of course yield greater long term results - however I was excited about RVW, that didn't turn out as expected - too many variables in this for me right now. But we may come back as a club in a financial position that allows us to take a couple of financial risks (see Leicester's big gamble on buying a championship player for £20+, turned out well).

The current spending level may be in the interest of the owners, but does that mean it can't also be in the interest of the long term safety of the club?

Release clauses in contracts would have been negotiated with the club, we would have had our control asserted if this were to happen.

And finally, yes. Unpredictable whether this would happen. That's football - I have no other answer for that!

All in all I'm weighing up the options and right now the long term safety of the club is paramount. It could (could) be the start of anything, or nothing. But we will be secure and safe, financially, in a world where businesses and football clubs are being hit as if seemingly from nowhere.

Also, a season enjoying the Championship wouldn't be the end of the world really. No VAR, more entertaining and competitive league. Silver linings and all.

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The 5 year plan was under Mcnally wasn't it and we've already had 2 relegations since it was mooted. Does the 5 year period re-set every time we get relegated?

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8 minutes ago, Flying Dutchman said:

Some fair and level headed points. A rarity on here too often...!

I do agree this is a special team and setup right now, I am just edgign more towards safety as it stands - Too often we have seen fallen giants in recent years (league position and financially).

Money spent wisely can of course yield greater long term results - however I was excited about RVW, that didn't turn out as expected - too many variables in this for me right now. But we may come back as a club in a financial position that allows us to take a couple of financial risks (see Leicester's big gamble on buying a championship player for £20+, turned out well).

 The current spending level may be in the interest of the owners, but does that mean it can't also be in the interest of the long term safety of the club?

Release clauses in contracts would have been negotiated with the club, we would have had our control asserted if this were to happen.

And finally, yes. Unpredictable whether this would happen. That's football - I have no other answer for that!

All in all I'm weighing up the options and right now the long term safety of the club is paramount. It could (could) be the start of anything, or nothing. But we will be secure and safe, financially, in a world where businesses and football clubs are being hit as if seemingly from nowhere.

Also, a season enjoying the Championship wouldn't be the end of the world really. No VAR, more entertaining and competitive league. Silver linings and all.

As the long term plan of our owners is to pass the club down then it makes sense that the long term interests of the club and the owners are very much intertwined. I'm just skeptical that the current succession plan is really in the best interests of the club as a competitive football team.

I'm always a touch confused when people bring uop RVW/Naismith as mitigation for not signing players now. The RVW window didn't actually damage us too much- we were able to shift most of his wages without issue and the profit made on Fer, Redmond and Olsson (also signed that window) meant we made more back in fees than we spent. 

Naismith was just poor strategy by a panicking management team flailing for answers. I have considerable faith that Webber wouldn't sanction anything as stupid as the Naismith/Jarvis deals. 

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5 minutes ago, king canary said:

As the long term plan of our owners is to pass the club down then it makes sense that the long term interests of the club and the owners are very much intertwined. I'm just skeptical that the current succession plan is really in the best interests of the club as a competitive football team.

I'm always a touch confused when people bring uop RVW/Naismith as mitigation for not signing players now. The RVW window didn't actually damage us too much- we were able to shift most of his wages without issue and the profit made on Fer, Redmond and Olsson (also signed that window) meant we made more back in fees than we spent. 

Naismith was just poor strategy by a panicking management team flailing for answers. I have considerable faith that Webber wouldn't sanction anything as stupid as the Naismith/Jarvis deals. 

I too agree that RVW and Naismith shouldn't be used as a reason not to sign players moving forward, however RVW in particular is an example of everything seeming to be in place for a positive result and it just not happening.

Nobody can ever really KNOW how a signing will turn out. That was my point regarding the money being 'spent wisely' - it's impossible to predict whether it would be a good move until after it's done.

Whilst you cannot take this approach ongoing, I do feel playing it safe for now is something I would be happy with. Maybe I'm justifying to myself what seems more and more inevitable by the gameweek, either way I am happy to be patient if it means a touch more security.

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3 minutes ago, Flying Dutchman said:

I too agree that RVW and Naismith shouldn't be used as a reason not to sign players moving forward, however RVW in particular is an example of everything seeming to be in place for a positive result and it just not happening.

Nobody can ever really KNOW how a signing will turn out. That was my point regarding the money being 'spent wisely' - it's impossible to predict whether it would be a good move until after it's done.

Whilst you cannot take this approach ongoing, I do feel playing it safe for now is something I would be happy with. Maybe I'm justifying to myself what seems more and more inevitable by the gameweek, either way I am happy to be patient if it means a touch more security.

That is all fair and clearly I'm a bit more pessimistic about the long term outlook than you are. 

I think the next season or two is crucial for these owners- if we go back down and find ourselves floundering in midtable having sold our key young players having failed to spend in the Premier League I think you'll see fans start to turn. Bounce straight back up and all will be forgiven for now.

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1 hour ago, hogesar said:

Just because you use one club as an example of where it's worked doesn't mean it has a 100% success rate otherwise every club in the prem would simply spend £40m a season for guaranteed improvement.

I agree it is not and neither is  the "we may end up as Portsmouth" argument BUT if you believe Webber & Co are the right people (seen many many posts praising them) and you achieve a stated aim earlier than you thought, it is 100% sensible then to adjust your targets and expectations. Only 28% of team get back at first attempt into the division all City fans what to be in... given the great gems we found, it surely could not have been beyond a club of our stature to add in a few additions to give us a fighting chance otherwise why bother... It seems to me that a lot of people on here that 100% support Webber & the owners, actually have very little faith in their ability to spend a reasonable amount of money well (like Sheffield Utd). If your aim (and it has to be) to be a premiership side for a long period then you have to maximise the opportunities as they come along... we currently are not.

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Is this 5 year plan the one McNally started or are we resetting it everytime it goes wrong? Also if it's a 5 year plan why is the architect leaving after 4 years? Has the goals of this plan been published? What do people thing is the end games / what does success look like? Genuinely what is it?

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2 hours ago, sonyc said:

It's been about fine margins 

Yeah like toe nails, arm pits. Games a joke. Falling out of love rapidly with football

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