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Just now, hogesar said:

Well yes, we concede a lot of goals but we have generally had 3 under 21's in our back four and a midfield who, particularly before Tettey, offered practically no protection alongside a playing style that doesn't lend itself to solidarity.

But despite all those goals conceded Krul still ranks as our 6th best player of the season according to overall WhoScored ratings. 

That isn't the point of the stat though.

The stat is like XG but for keepers- ie based on the chances faced over the season how many goals would he have been expected to concede. By their calculations, he's conceded more than they'd expect based on the quality of chances faced. 

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6 minutes ago, king canary said:

That isn't the point of the stat though.

The stat is like XG but for keepers- ie based on the chances faced over the season how many goals would he have been expected to concede. By their calculations, he's conceded more than they'd expect based on the quality of chances faced. 

I’ve not seen that site before. How do they decide the quality of the chance created? Would a penalty be seen as they same as a shot from distance?

if so, and in defence of Krul, I would imagine he’s much more likely to face points blank opportunities than efforts we are likely to create against opposition keepers ourselves.

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I see Connor Gallagher has now been recalled from his loan at Charlton. We should know shortly on whether he will be heading to Norwich or Burnley.

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18 minutes ago, jaberry2 said:

I see Connor Gallagher has now been recalled from his loan at Charlton. We should know shortly on whether he will be heading to Norwich or Burnley.

We do have two PL loan spots available so may decide it’s a route to take; I’d rather like a cb if it’s all the same.

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1 hour ago, king canary said:

That isn't the point of the stat though.

The stat is like XG but for keepers- ie based on the chances faced over the season how many goals would he have been expected to concede. By their calculations, he's conceded more than they'd expect based on the quality of chances faced. 

So is it using the XG stat? I can't think of a list of shots where we've conceded and thought "Krul should have saved there" certainly no more than a handful which I'd apply to most goalkeepers.

Maybe its the "glasses by Tim Krul" that I keep wearing to games but I just don't see it. I don't see anything Krul has done to be dropped.

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1 hour ago, Hillhead said:

I’ve not seen that site before. How do they decide the quality of the chance created? Would a penalty be seen as they same as a shot from distance?

if so, and in defence of Krul, I would imagine he’s much more likely to face points blank opportunities than efforts we are likely to create against opposition keepers ourselves.

I can't speak to their methods but I think this is part of statsbomb who are run by the ex Head of Analytics for Brentford so I'd have quite a bit of faith in them.

I'm not saying Krul is or has been bad, just maybe not quite as good as we've thought and not so good that it isn't worth considering other options. I don't think we've got a great deal to lose by giving Fahrmann a run at this point.

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someone suggested 3 at the back with Lewis and Aarons pushed further up.  We haven't had the luxury of changing formation at the back all season due to at least 2 of our CBs being injured at the same time. That's also had some impact on when and how Amadou plays.  With no direct replacement on the bench, it's unlikely Farke would play 3 CBs and Amadou in the same side.

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IMO, Krul doesn't save as many as he should. 

He doesn't seem able to dive with any real athleticism, and sort of just falls to one side or the other. But strangely, he looks far more competent and athletic when facing a penalty?! 

His shot stopping, generally, is nothing special and I'm not surprised to see a stat suggesting he should save more than he does. Great pro though, and no doubt a huge influence in the dressing room. 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Il Pirata said:

IMO, Krul doesn't save as many as he should. 

He doesn't seem able to dive with any real athleticism, and sort of just falls to one side or the other. But strangely, he looks far more competent and athletic when facing a penalty?! 

His shot stopping, generally, is nothing special and I'm not surprised to see a stat suggesting he should save more than he does. Great pro though, and no doubt a huge influence in the dressing room. 

 

 

Good assessment , given our position and finances , he was a very fortunate signing. He needed us as much as we needed him. 

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Always a good data reference site, reliable consistent and accurate.    Ryan & Guaita are particularly impressive.

As you can see from below, Krul sits at 17th out of the 19 rated,   performing about the same as patricio, is above Kepa and Pope.  He has "cost" us just under 4 goals more than expected - one extra every 5th game or so.  Still significantly better than mcgovern (-1.2 goals per 90).    No data for Fahrmann as he does have enough minutes on pitch - the only one of the three yet to concede a prem goal.  With 4 extra goals with a GD of -23 & 45 goceeded suggests that the real issue with the players in front of him.

I do see a slight deterioration in performance over the last couple of months so at some stage it may be worth giving Fahrmann a try - but no reason at the moment.   For me strengthening the keeper for this season isnt a priority (a longer term signing is another thing)

Rank Player Corners xGd Goal/90
1 Alisson 0 3.7 0.3
2 Mathew Ryan 4 6.3 0.29
3 Vicente Guaita 4 4.7 0.23
4 Kasper Schmeichel 3 4.7 0.22
5 Ben Foster 3 4.5 0.21
6 Martin Dúbravka 8 3.6 0.16
7 Dean Henderson 2 3.2 0.15
8 Bernd Leno 4 2.7 0.12
9 Alex McCarthy 3 0.8 0.07
10 Ederson 2 0.8 0.05
11 Jordan Pickford 4 0.9 0.04
12 Aaron Ramsdale 4 -0.1 0
13 Paulo Gazzaniga 2 -1.7 -0.11
14 David de Gea 6 -2.4 -0.11
15 Tom Heaton 7 -2.4 -0.12
16 Rui Patrício 5 -3.9 -0.18
17 Tim Krul 9 -3.7 -0.19
18 Kepa Arrizabalaga 4 -5.2 -0.23
19 Nick Pope 3 -8.7 -0.39

 

Edited by ZLF

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1 hour ago, king canary said:

I can't speak to their methods but I think this is part of statsbomb who are run by the ex Head of Analytics for Brentford so I'd have quite a bit of faith in them.

I'm not saying Krul is or has been bad, just maybe not quite as good as we've thought and not so good that it isn't worth considering other options. I don't think we've got a great deal to lose by giving Fahrmann a run at this point.

Not saying we shouldn't do this, but what other clubs do you see regularly changing their goalkeeper unless an injury comes in to the equation?

Not many. In fact, the only one I can think of this season is poor ol Angus at Southampton who got 9 put past him.

Many people thought Angus was the best thing since sliced things when he was at Norwich but I firmly believe that Krul is actually a better 'keeper.

The sigining of Fahrmann was to help push Krul to new levels and perhaps provide cover if needed. The fact that Krul gets in over him is telling and that's all we need to know really.

Edited by BobLoz3

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51 minutes ago, ZLF said:

Always a good data reference site, reliable consistent and accurate.    Ryan & Guaita are particularly impressive.

As you can see from below, Krul sits at 17th out of the 19 rated,   performing about the same as patricio, is above Kepa and Pope.  He has "cost" us just under 4 goals more than expected - one extra every 5th game or so.  Still significantly better than mcgovern (-1.2 goals per 90).    No data for Fahrmann as he does have enough minutes on pitch - the only one of the three yet to concede a prem goal.  With 4 extra goals with a GD of -23 & 45 goceeded suggests that the real issue with the players in front of him.

I do see a slight deterioration in performance over the last couple of months so at some stage it may be worth giving Fahrmann a try - but no reason at the moment.   For me strengthening the keeper for this season isnt a priority (a longer term signing is another thing)

Rank Player Corners xGd Goal/90
1 Alisson 0 3.7 0.3
2 Mathew Ryan 4 6.3 0.29
3 Vicente Guaita 4 4.7 0.23
4 Kasper Schmeichel 3 4.7 0.22
5 Ben Foster 3 4.5 0.21
6 Martin Dúbravka 8 3.6 0.16
7 Dean Henderson 2 3.2 0.15
8 Bernd Leno 4 2.7 0.12
9 Alex McCarthy 3 0.8 0.07
10 Ederson 2 0.8 0.05
11 Jordan Pickford 4 0.9 0.04
12 Aaron Ramsdale 4 -0.1 0
13 Paulo Gazzaniga 2 -1.7 -0.11
14 David de Gea 6 -2.4 -0.11
15 Tom Heaton 7 -2.4 -0.12
16 Rui Patrício 5 -3.9 -0.18
17 Tim Krul 9 -3.7 -0.19
18 Kepa Arrizabalaga 4 -5.2 -0.23
19 Nick Pope 3 -8.7 -0.39

 

Weird isn't it, as I saw something the other day that Tim Krul was statistically the second best keeper in the premier league!

Bl00dy stats!

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3 hours ago, king canary said:

Has he done really well though? We're still leaking goals with regularity, not really creating chances and doing far too much of our defending in our own final third. 

I think it is worth giving Amadou a go at some point just to see if it changes anything- I also lean that way with Fahrmann too.

 

I think he has been one of the more consistent performers this season - hence why he has played in most games. 

We are poor defensively as a team. Tettey has made few individual errors. 

It is actually the other midfield spot that we've had issues with. Trybull compliments Tettey but doesn't give us enough quailty, Leitner is too lightweight, Vrancic has struggled too... hence the Rupp signing.

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I assume the 9 in the corners column is goals conceded?  Another negative stat for Zonal marking.

If Fahrmann can stay fit, I assume we'll see him at Burnley in the cup.

 

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On new signings, if Duda and Rupp are improvements on what we have, that's great.  With every signing we made last summer, bar maybe Amadou, I struggled to see who they were 'better than' in our squad. And that was what we needed then and what we need now.

I'm still hoping for a centre back and a back up striker.

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35 minutes ago, BobLoz3 said:

Not saying we shouldn't do this, but what other clubs do you see regularly changing their goalkeeper unless an injury comes in to the equation?

Not many. In fact, the only one I can think of this season is poor ol Angus at Southampton who got 9 put past him.

Many people thought Angus was the best thing since sliced things when he was at Norwich but I firmly believe that Krul is actually a better 'keeper.

The sigining of Fahrmann was to help push Krul to new levels and perhaps provide cover if needed. The fact that Krul gets in over him is telling and that's all we need to know really.

Fair question but you can also ask 'what other team do you see shipping over two goals a game?'

I remember last season Burnley started with Hart in goal and were shipping goals left and right, despite him seemingly making some good saves from what I saw of the highlights. They then switched him out for Heaton and the defence improved hugely.

If our backup was McGovern I wouldn't suggest a change- but Fahrmann is a keeper with significant top-level experience and I don't think there is any great harm in giving him a shot.

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6 minutes ago, king canary said:

Fair question but you can also ask 'what other team do you see shipping over two goals a game?'

I remember last season Burnley started with Hart in goal and were shipping goals left and right, despite him seemingly making some good saves from what I saw of the highlights. They then switched him out for Heaton and the defence improved hugely.

If our backup was McGovern I wouldn't suggest a change- but Fahrmann is a keeper with significant top-level experience and I don't think there is any great harm in giving him a shot.

Aside from potentially damaging Krul's confidence?

He's a big boy, should be able to handle it. But I think it's important to have a 'keeper who has a relationship with the defenders in front of him. Krul has that and Fahrmann perhaps doesn't. I know that you might think "how do we know that unless he's given a run of games??" The answer is, we don't and we won't. But I would have thought Farke sees enough of them in training to make a good call. Plus Krul has Premier League experience, is very vocal in games, pumps up the defenders when they've done something good and gives them a rocket if they don't! Would Fahrmann have the confidence to do the same? I'm not so sure... Oh yeah, and we don't 'own' Ralf either. Makes a big difference.

The issue isn't Krul so much, more the fact our midfield and defence aren't doing their jobs properly at times! I'd like to see the stats on how many goals scored in open play due to mistakes from our players and how many scored from set-pieces. Not always something the keeper can control. Especially from set-pieces, with our refusal to do anything else other than zonal marking.

One thing I will say is that I don't think Krul is very good from direct free-kicks. If an opposing team get one in the 'danger' areas I'd back them to score from them... if they can get the shot on target! Krul doesn't seem to set up very well for these.

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20 minutes ago, king canary said:

Fair question but you can also ask 'what other team do you see shipping over two goals a game?'

I remember last season Burnley started with Hart in goal and were shipping goals left and right, despite him seemingly making some good saves from what I saw of the highlights. They then switched him out for Heaton and the defence improved hugely.

If our backup was McGovern I wouldn't suggest a change- but Fahrmann is a keeper with significant top-level experience and I don't think there is any great harm in giving him a shot.

Purely guessing but maybe the club are guilty of having half an eye on next season where it's incredibly unlikely Fahrmann will be here and Krul will hopefully still be our number one.

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35 minutes ago, NWC said:

Weird isn't it, as I saw something the other day that Tim Krul was statistically the second best keeper in the premier league!

Bl00dy stats!

So many stats - none are the arbiter;  I think Krul does was in the saves per shots faced ratio for example.    This one simply a calculation of how many he has not saved out of those that stats says he should have saved...     From memory its a 30% chance keepers dont concede from a penalty - so 0.3 expected save. 

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29 minutes ago, BobLoz3 said:

Aside from potentially damaging Krul's confidence?

He's a big boy, should be able to handle it. But I think it's important to have a 'keeper who has a relationship with the defenders in front of him. Krul has that and Fahrmann perhaps doesn't. I know that you might think "how do we know that unless he's given a run of games??" The answer is, we don't and we won't. But I would have thought Farke sees enough of them in training to make a good call. Plus Krul has Premier League experience, is very vocal in games, pumps up the defenders when they've done something good and gives them a rocket if they don't! Would Fahrmann have the confidence to do the same? I'm not so sure... Oh yeah, and we don't 'own' Ralf either. Makes a big difference.

The issue isn't Krul so much, more the fact our midfield and defence aren't doing their jobs properly at times! I'd like to see the stats on how many goals scored in open play due to mistakes from our players and how many scored from set-pieces. Not always something the keeper can control. Especially from set-pieces, with our refusal to do anything else other than zonal marking.

One thing I will say is that I don't think Krul is very good from direct free-kicks. If an opposing team get one in the 'danger' areas I'd back them to score from them... if they can get the shot on target! Krul doesn't seem to set up very well for these.

Bit surprised to hear you say this BobLoz as I don't see any evidence for it. We've only conceded one goal from a direct free kick this season - Eriksen against Spurs. There was no way Krul was going to save this. In fact this goal was a perfect example of why we are going to be 'relegated by centimetres' this season. All the wall jumped except Tettey. If you watch it again closely from all the angles you can see that the ball actually skims off the top of Tettey's head and into the net. I love Tettey, but if he had just jumped 3 centimetres in the air (rather than just standing on tip toe) we would have won that game 2-1. 

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20 minutes ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

Bit surprised to hear you say this BobLoz as I don't see any evidence for it. We've only conceded one goal from a direct free kick this season - Eriksen against Spurs. There was no way Krul was going to save this. In fact this goal was a perfect example of why we are going to be 'relegated by centimetres' this season. All the wall jumped except Tettey. If you watch it again closely from all the angles you can see that the ball actually skims off the top of Tettey's head and into the net. I love Tettey, but if he had just jumped 3 centimetres in the air (rather than just standing on tip toe) we would have won that game 2-1. 

I meant in general, TL. Including last season, but understand your point.

I actually think we've done quite well in avoiding giving away free-kicks in such positions this season since we've only conceded from one. It was mainly just meant to be a point about Krul, to sort of counter-balance all the positive stuff I said! 😀

Yes, I feel like Vrancic and Tettey could have both done better against that Eriksen freekick. However, there are tonnes of moments from that game we could discuss! Pukki's disallowed goal... VAR... Why the heck Eriksen was allowed to move the ball back from that freekick position to get a better angle... etc. All of which we've done to death on here already!

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6 minutes ago, BobLoz3 said:

I meant in general, TL. Including last season, but understand your point.

I actually think we've done quite well in avoiding giving away free-kicks in such positions this season since we've only conceded from one. It was mainly just meant to be a point about Krul, to sort of counter-balance all the positive stuff I said! 😀

Yes, I feel like Vrancic and Tettey could have both done better against that Eriksen freekick. However, there are tonnes of moments from that game we could discuss! Pukki's disallowed goal... VAR... Why the heck Eriksen was allowed to move the ball back from that freekick position to get a better angle... etc. All of which we've done to death on here already!

Vrancic did the exact same thing from almost the exact same spot on the pitch against Sheffield Wednesday last season 😂

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16 minutes ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

Vrancic did the exact same thing from almost the exact same spot on the pitch against Sheffield Wednesday last season 😂

VARncic... Hahaha! Well, bloody good job we didn't have VAR in the Championship. Mind you, on that evidence it wouldn't have come into play anyhow! 😂

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On 14/01/2020 at 15:12, ZLF said:

So many stats - none are the arbiter;  I think Krul does was in the saves per shots faced ratio for example.    This one simply a calculation of how many he has not saved out of those that stats says he should have saved...     From memory its a 30% chance keepers dont concede from a penalty - so 0.3 expected save. 

From what I can see it just uses the condition of "Was the shot on target" I think that's always going to be harsher on keepers at inferior clubs as goalkeepers if superior opposition are going to get relatively more saveable  chances than pot shots imo

I can't see Krul being dropped this season if he plays as he has been. He's stepped up from last season in the championship for me (despite our poor results) and I think he could be here for a few more years yet.

Edited by Hillhead

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On 14/01/2020 at 11:58, jaberry2 said:

I see Connor Gallagher has now been recalled from his loan at Charlton. We should know shortly on whether he will be heading to Norwich or Burnley.

He's gone to Swansea....

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I'm late to the party here, but I'm not convinced using xG to assess goalkeepers can be done. xG is very good at assessing which teams deserve to win a game and it's also good for judging how clinical an attacker is, i.e. if he scores several low xG chances he must be an excellent finisher.

However, I'm not sure this extends to goalkeepers and here's why:

If an attacker has a low xG attempt, say 0.05, from a very difficult position but he's able to put it in the top corner and it's almost unsaveable, that will look very bad for a goalkeeper's xG through no fault of his own. Similarly, if a striker is unmarked on the edge of the six-yard box, maybe a 0.7 xG, and he scuffs it completely and it dribbles through to the keeper, the goalkeeper has done very little but has saved an expected goal.

As a result, I think xG is good for assessing a team's productivity and dominance, and also for how accurate and efficient a striker is, but it's hard to apply this to goalkeepers.

Edited by Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man
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I'd like us to look at signing Andre Gray from Watford, who is reportedly available. Always looked a threat and has been linked with Championship teams.

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Gray wouldn’t be a bad shout, but I doubt Watford would be too keen letting him go to a side they’re potentially in direct competition with.  I see Villa are close to signing another £10m striker, with Wesley out for the season. 

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16 minutes ago, Darth Vadis said:

How reliable is this bloke? 

 

Don't know, but it sounds like a very 'us' signing. Just from one interview he gave last summer he aims to be someone comfortable on the ball but with a touch of aggresion.  I suppose any midfielder would say the same!

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