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Kenny Foggo

Model / Plan

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Posted (edited)

For me the key thing is ... stop repeating the failed strategy of the past whilst accepting that we won't sell out to a billionaire any time soon.

 

This means ...

1. Starting with an ethos / philosophy / style and only recruiting players and a head coach to suit that.

2. Aiming to always be greater than the sum of our parts (round pegs in round holes).

3. Never being too dependent on one player / a manager.

4. Investing in young talent and developing it at academy level and with excellent training facilities before selling them on for lucrative profit - for further investment.

5. Seeing THIS promotion as an unexpected free hit to clear the debts, tie down young talent (core assets) to good contracts, showcase this young talent and give top level experience to our head coach and players.

6. Being in a far stronger position next season to fight for promotion than following any other relegation and CRUCIALLY returning to the top tier able to spend more than this time round.

Like Burnley and WBA bouncing back and forth a wee bit before sticking for a sustained spell (are there any 'established' clubs lower than Wolves/Everton?).

 

This is long term planning to make us an established top club without the risk that foreign ownership brings.

I'm fascinated to watch it pan out and glad that we have a brave and intelligent club to be proud of but ... my fear is that (knowing the Championship as we all do!) bouncing back from relegation isn't ever a doddle - however smartly you plan for it ... it's a vipers' nest!

 

I suppose at worst we'll only end up back where we were pre Webber/Farke but in a far stronger financial position and with some fab memories.

Enjoy the ride!

Edited by Cantiaci Canary
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7 hours ago, jaberry2 said:

We have just progressed a bit sooner than expected. The plan will always be to be a steady premiership outfit.

How do you work that out when the owners state they are happy and want city to be a top 26 position club. How many teams are there in the premiership!!

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We are the champions at getting promotion and instant relegation. Seems that’s enough for many on here but you’d think we would have worked out how to stop up by now.

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I think, to be honest the buy / loan for low amounts has really not worked this summer. Webber maybe can do it at championship level but not proved at top flight yet.

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On 02/01/2020 at 11:58, PurpleCanary said:

I can only go on what has been said publicly, but my understanding is as follows:

1) The club continues to invest in Colney - work there is not finished - to attract talented yougsters.

2) The scouting network looks for good young British talent but also has finding young overseas players as a priority (Brexit may interfere with this).

3) Promotion to the Premier League will not spark a spending splurge on high-wage players with long and expensive contracts, so relegation will not cripple the finances  as it threatened to last time. Instead the assumption is that a player or two or three will inevitably be sold, but the overall squad, bumped up with the next generation of talent, will survive, as will the style of play - arguably the main point of the sporting-director plan.

4) So there is consistency and organic growth in terms of the squad but also crucially with the finances (definitely keeping within FFP rules), giving the club the best chance of getting back to the PL, with the eventual aim that a gradual strengthening of the squad will enable it to get up and stay up. I doubt there is a specific timeframe on this.

In general the plan is very different to the course pursued last time we went up and got relegated. The first part of 3) has already happened, of course, and last summer's transfer business exemplified 2).

Just to add, I don't know whether the plan is best defined as medium-term or long-term, but what it definitely is not is short-term. Leaving aside this January window, unless there are major moves out, the first real signs of how it works - and whether it works - will not come until the summer, after relegation.

Then we will see how many players get sold and for what money, and how many prize assets stay. How much of the money received then gets spent on potential first-team players and how much earmarked for off-field projects. How many of last summer's acquisitions for the future move up to the first-team squad. How many new for-the-future acquisitions there are, and of what quality.

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At some point, the bubble will burst and a couple of major clubs will go under. That will then likely spark a major movement on how clubs are run. I think at that point, we will see a re-balance of competitiveness. Clubs like ours will benefit more than most.

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1 minute ago, Michael Starr said:

At some point, the bubble will burst and a couple of major clubs will go under. That will then likely spark a major movement on how clubs are run. I think at that point, we will see a re-balance of competitiveness. Clubs like ours will benefit more than most.

I would love to have some of what ever you are on

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On 02/01/2020 at 19:50, Kenny Foggo said:

I think, to be honest the buy / loan for low amounts has really not worked this summer. Webber maybe can do it at championship level but not proved at top flight yet.

We're still suffering the fallout from past failures. We only managed to clear out the remaining dead wood this Summer.

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3 minutes ago, Jobsworth Canary said:

I would love to have some of what ever you are on

What , intelligence?....you'd only waste it!!!:classic_cool:

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6 minutes ago, Michael Starr said:

Happened in Italy.

In Italy you don't have Amazon, Sky, BT bidding billions for your product 

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14 minutes ago, Michael Starr said:

At some point, the bubble will burst and a couple of major clubs will go under. That will then likely spark a major movement on how clubs are run. I think at that point, we will see a re-balance of competitiveness. Clubs like ours will benefit more than most.

We were a james maddison sale away from being in a lot of trouble ourselves

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13 minutes ago, Kenny Foggo said:

In Italy you don't have Amazon, Sky, BT bidding billions for your product 

And also, decent-sized Serie A/B clubs can generally reform straight away in the fourth tier so for a club that's struggling financially, it's not a serious problem to fold and start again.

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On 02/01/2020 at 15:33, PurpleCanary said:

GPB, the real problem is that the FFP limit was changed from £13m a season to £39m over three. 

It’s a minor point, but the initial Championship FFP rules (which were actually introduced during our three season Premier League stint between 2011-14) were intended at the time to reduce allowable annual losses from £8m pa to £3m pa over the course of three seasons.

However, it immediately became apparent that a number of clubs were likely to smash the thresholds, so the Championship clubs agreed to increase the allowable losses to £39m pa over three seasons - to also coincide with the Premier League rolling three year review period.

Personally, I find it was remarkable that FFP, originally introduced with the sole purpose of bringing some element of financial control to the way clubs were behaving, was changed so they could actually behave far worse!

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On 02/01/2020 at 11:58, PurpleCanary said:

I can only go on what has been said publicly, but my understanding is as follows:

1) The club continues to invest in Colney - work there is not finished - to attract talented yougsters.

2) The scouting network looks for good young British talent but also has finding young overseas players as a priority (Brexit may interfere with this).

3) Promotion to the Premier League will not spark a spending splurge on high-wage players with long and expensive contracts, so relegation will not cripple the finances  as it threatened to last time. Instead the assumption is that a player or two or three will inevitably be sold, but the overall squad, bumped up with the next generation of talent, will survive, as will the style of play - arguably the main point of the sporting-director plan.

4) So there is consistency and organic growth in terms of the squad but also crucially with the finances (definitely keeping within FFP rules), giving the club the best chance of getting back to the PL, with the eventual aim that a gradual strengthening of the squad will enable it to get up and stay up. I doubt there is a specific timeframe on this.

In general the plan is very different to the course pursued last time we went up and got relegated. The first part of 3) has already happened, of course, and last summer's transfer business exemplified 2).

If we want any overseas players who can't speak English to a decent standard we will need to sign them in the next summer transfer window.

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I think the board recognise their limitations and the truth is that money talks in modern football. Forget top 26 the reality is a desire  to get as high as possible without a change of ownership.

As recent seasons have shown the current budget and wage structure makes us a top half Championship side. We buy cheap, invest in youth and then sell high. When over-achieving on the budget in place (best case scenario) we get promoted to the top flight. When under-achieving on the budget in place (worst case scenario) we fall into the third tier but with enough money to come back strong. When neither over or under achieving we will be mid to top half championship side. 

If the club wishes to progress. (And last summer's transfer business suggests the board do not) then funds have to be found to push onto premiership level. This does not only mean hefty transfer budget but a doubling if not tripling of wages. And here is where we come unstuck. This year we just didn't bother- wise if the plan is to remain static as we are well placed next season. Hopeless if the aim was to take advantage of promotion. Nevertheless a much better strategy than the stupid decision (in the Naismith era) to go for a middle ground and hope to pay almost enough for not quite good enough players. This nearly bankrupted the club. 

How then to press on. The answer becomes obvious. It needs a change of ownership or a massive new revenue stream. I dont see that happening under the present owners who took over a club in a national era but now find themselves poor in a global market. Some fans are perfectly happy with this. Fair play but the risk is that other clubs do progress and we slide into lower champ territory or league one. What exactly does nephew Tom bring to the party? Others feel the time is ripe to take a risk and find new owners. Also risky. But the one reality in life is that nothing stays the same. 

At the moment I am enjoying the team and manager. I really want to see us build on them. But I fear the budget means the team will soon be dismantled and proceeds used to try and go again...the dice will be rolled. And on we go...

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1 hour ago, Dean Coneys boots said:

How then to press on. The answer becomes obvious. It needs a change of ownership or a massive new revenue stream. I dont see that happening under the present owners who took over a club in a national era but now find themselves poor in a global market. Some fans are perfectly happy with this. Fair play but the risk is that other clubs do progress and we slide into lower champ territory or league one. What exactly does nephew Tom bring to the party? Others feel the time is ripe to take a risk and find new owners. Also risky. But the one reality in life is that nothing stays the same. 

This type of assertion is repeated time and again. It is rather simplistic and usually made without genuine evidence on the prolonged  experiences of other clubs. The evidence suggests that very few clubs have had prolonged benefit, from external investors. What you are really asking for is a billionaire happy to give us tens and probably hundreds of millions over a prolonged period.

Not impossible perhaps, but we are far more likely to find someone who is likely to make our current situation far worse.

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3 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

If we want any overseas players who can't speak English to a decent standard we will need to sign them in the next summer transfer window.

British Immigration rules will always have loopholes for people who earn the amount of money that footballers do. 
 

Brexit will probably mean that clubs can bring in more South American players than before - I understand that Norwich already have a scout dedicated to Brazil and Argentina in anticipation of these markets opening up. 

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38 minutes ago, Bethnal Yellow and Green said:

British Immigration rules will always have loopholes for people who earn the amount of money that footballers do. 
 

Brexit will probably mean that clubs can bring in more South American players than before - I understand that Norwich already have a scout dedicated to Brazil and Argentina in anticipation of these markets opening up. 

Interesting- is this a relaxation of the work permit rules?

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4 minutes ago, king canary said:

is this a relaxation of the work permit rules? 

We don't have  the details yet, but a skills based system will replace EU freedom of movement. This is likely  to make immigration  from outside the EU easier. It is the skill level(measured by wage) which will be  the determining  factor rather than EU citizenship.

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