Nuff Said 4,938 Posted August 12, 2019 And another good article (thanks to Duncan Edwards for the link): https://welovebetting.co.uk/weekend-debrief-the-pitfalls-of-outcome-bias/ 9 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Peanuts 150 Posted August 12, 2019 20 minutes ago, Nuff Said said: And another good article (thanks to Duncan Edwards for the link): https://welovebetting.co.uk/weekend-debrief-the-pitfalls-of-outcome-bias/ Brilliant stuff. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Branston Pickle 3,598 Posted August 12, 2019 That is a decent read - it’s certainly true that this ‘outcome bias’ determines how many reports are written. Obviously it is a scoreline/result/goal-based business, but there is a lot more going on underneath that is missed by far too many. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted August 12, 2019 18 minutes ago, Branston Pickle said: That is a decent read - it’s certainly true that this ‘outcome bias’ determines how many reports are written. Obviously it is a scoreline/result/goal-based business, but there is a lot more going on underneath that is missed by far too many. result ? get with it Daddio it is outcomes just as Pukki is our top offending player, especially when he plays on top hit me with that groovy newspeak......err, man 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
First Wazzock 863 Posted August 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bill said: result ? get with it Daddio it is outcomes just as Pukki is our top offending player, especially when he plays on top hit me with that groovy newspeak......err, man Bill, it doesn't matter how hard you push the envelope, it will always be stationery...(or is that stationary???) 3 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Making Plans 929 Posted August 13, 2019 At last, somebody, who is not a Norwich fan, sees and tells it like it was. If only the pundits had the insight, knowledge and the bravery to see past the actual scoreline instead of being blinded by the light. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
East Rider 538 Posted August 13, 2019 Probably explains why Super Tom was absolutely knackered. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,204 Posted August 13, 2019 Excellent article. This is what coaches focus on. Parma Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted August 13, 2019 9 hours ago, Nuff Said said: And another good article (thanks to Duncan Edwards for the link): https://welovebetting.co.uk/weekend-debrief-the-pitfalls-of-outcome-bias/ 👍 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CDMullins 435 Posted August 13, 2019 (edited) "Would you continue to back a team that’s won 10 consecutive games 1-0 if you knew they had been out-shot in every game? You wouldn’t, so why ignore the evidence which is largely available?" Cant really agree with this, we might have had more shots but how many of them were actually chances? Like Salah from 8-10 years, Clean header from VVD, Header 8 yards out from Origi, Pukki with a clear opening - They are chances. And not mentioning the chances Liverpool missed in the second half. Cant think of too many more chances Liverpool allowed us to have, Stepi had 3 long-ish range efforts, Leitners shot that hit the bar wasnt really a 'chance' As much as I was really proud of our efforts and don't think the score really reflected the game, I think had it have been 0-0 at HT, Liverpool would have created more 'chances' and won the game. Edited August 13, 2019 by CDMullins Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lake district canary 4,519 Posted August 13, 2019 1 minute ago, CDMullins said: As much as I was really proud of our efforts and don't think the score really reflected the game, I think had it have been 0-0 at HT, Liverpool would have created more 'chances' and won the game. But last season we were always stronger in the second half and that looks set to continue. Also, if it had been 0-0 at half time, Liverpool would have been disappointed and starting to feel the pressure. People talked about Villa "running themselves into the ground" against Spurs, but that didn't happen with us.....we kept our fitness right to the end.....one of the reasons they couldn't hold out against Spurs and we did more than hold out against Liverpool. Different kinds of matches, maybe, but still we came out of our game with plenty of credit in the end. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Nuff Said 4,938 Posted August 13, 2019 50 minutes ago, CDMullins said: , Leitners shot that hit the bar wasnt really a 'chance' Eh? 5 cm lower and it would have been a goal. How is that not a ‘chance’? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CDMullins 435 Posted August 13, 2019 (edited) 40 minutes ago, Nuff Said said: Eh? 5 cm lower and it would have been a goal. How is that not a ‘chance’? Doesn't mean it was a 'chance' if a player hit the crossbar from halfway, it wouldn't be a chance would it? Edited August 13, 2019 by CDMullins Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Nuff Said 4,938 Posted August 13, 2019 53 minutes ago, CDMullins said: Doesn't mean it was a 'chance' if a player hit the crossbar from halfway, it wouldn't be a chance would it? In my book it would. We’ll have to agree to differ on this one. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CDMullins 435 Posted August 13, 2019 We'll have to... Couldn't imagine walking out of a game saying "God if only Stepi took his chance, we'd have won" Referring from a shot from the half way line. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
AJ 1,218 Posted August 13, 2019 Surely it still has to be considered a “chance” to score. For example, imagine the goalkeeper had gone AWOL and Steipi shot from the halfway line but missed. Surely you would be saying “if only Marco took his chance...” Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,156 Posted August 13, 2019 Did I miss Leitner’s shot from halfway hitting the bar? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
splendidrush 698 Posted August 13, 2019 If Marco's shot from the half way line had gone in, would it have been a goal? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jim Smith 2,290 Posted August 14, 2019 22 hours ago, CDMullins said: "Would you continue to back a team that’s won 10 consecutive games 1-0 if you knew they had been out-shot in every game? You wouldn’t, so why ignore the evidence which is largely available?" Cant really agree with this, we might have had more shots but how many of them were actually chances? Like Salah from 8-10 years, Clean header from VVD, Header 8 yards out from Origi, Pukki with a clear opening - They are chances. And not mentioning the chances Liverpool missed in the second half. Cant think of too many more chances Liverpool allowed us to have, Stepi had 3 long-ish range efforts, Leitners shot that hit the bar wasnt really a 'chance' As much as I was really proud of our efforts and don't think the score really reflected the game, I think had it have been 0-0 at HT, Liverpool would have created more 'chances' and won the game. Can't say I agree with you here CDM. Their first wasn't even a chance and Leitners effort was not hugely different from Salah's save a touch wider but actually created by our good play rather than a lucky richochet. Trybull had a header from a corner as well first half. Stiepermann's first chance from the Pukki pull back was a reasonable opportunity and Hernandez had a good chance as well (especially had his first touch been better). In addition Pukki had a great chance where he was played through first half and tried to chip the keeper and was wrongly flagged offside. Indeed I've still not seen any kind of explanation as to why our players were wrongly flagged offside on 3 occasions in that game in very tight calls when my understanding is that linesman are under a dictat not to flag marginal offsides but wait for the VAR check. I would be interested to know what the outcome is if a player is flagged offside, runs through and puts the ball in the net only for VAR to show it was onside. Does the goal stand in those circumstances and what happens if the defensive team have stopped or eased off because they have seen the on field flag? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites