Canary Jedi 573 Posted August 10, 2019 4 hours ago, canarydan23 said: Why did the 4th kill it, LDC? It's football, anything can happen. It was just as likely to finish 5-4 to Norwich when they went in at half time. I also thought the same as Lakey when the 4th went in. It’s not scientific - not everything in life has to be 100% proven to know that it’s right, but to be 4-0 down away at Liverpool is in all likelihood going to mean they will see out the game. At 3-0 there is hope (see Forest at home last season) - even if still unlikely. I think it’s just because it’s Lakey that if he says black other people will say white 😉 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
canarydan23 4,060 Posted August 10, 2019 38 minutes ago, Canary Jedi said: I also thought the same as Lakey when the 4th went in. It’s not scientific - not everything in life has to be 100% proven to know that it’s right, but to be 4-0 down away at Liverpool is in all likelihood going to mean they will see out the game. At 3-0 there is hope (see Forest at home last season) - even if still unlikely. I think it’s just because it’s Lakey that if he says black other people will say white 😉 No, it's if Lakey says Norwich have as much chance as Liverpool to win the league before a ball is kicked, people who call a spade a spade will also call him stupid. I think you missed the point a little, padawan. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
norfolkngood 1,086 Posted August 10, 2019 i Think we did Very well last Night ! great attacking and once we have 1st choice DM and CD in it will be fine , my only concern is that we play like last night against the lesser teams we have all seen players raise their game against the big 4 next up with have Newcastle we have to play the same if we do i am sure we will win enough to stay up Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lake district canary 4,531 Posted August 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, canarydan23 said: No, it's if Lakey says Norwich have as much chance as Liverpool to win the league before a ball is kicked, people who call a spade a spade will also call him stupid. I think you missed the point a little, padawan. No, you don't get the point. The future has not been written yet and data and stats do nothing to change that. I'm not so stupid as to think some teams don't have more chance to win the league than others, but equally, the league has to be won - and it does not have to be who you expect it to be because of history/stats or whatever. We could go on a winning streak on the back of yesterday's performance and end up in a few weeks near the top of the table. Ok, I may be a little alternative in my views, but it's not hard to understand - you simply have to put aside your beliefs, prejudices and your reliance on data and see a football match for what it is - one that starts 0-0 and both teams have the ability to win it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Canary Jedi 573 Posted August 10, 2019 2 hours ago, Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB said: I suppose I am somewhere between stats and the uncertain nature of football, if football is just about stats it begs the question why lots of people do not win the football pools jackpot every week. Maybe we should refer to stats as expectation and the uncertain nature of football as hope, my expectation last night was that we would lose 3-1, that said there was a part of me that hoped (given the uncertain nature of football - we would not have FA Cup giant killers if it is not so) with a fair wind and a bit of luck we might have got a point, that hope went out of the window when Grant Hanley unfortunately scored an early own goal (No stat in the world could have predicted that the ball would slice off his boot and find just about the only spot that Krul could not get to)........ You’ve got it about right. Stats are interesting for sure but what are the stats that cover our team spirit, creative play and never say die attitude? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
hogesar 9,615 Posted August 10, 2019 The more shots thing is a great confidence boost but I also imagine Liverpool will defend better than that against better teams than us. We mustn't assume that we will just create endless chances against Newcastle. Going to be very difficult. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mello Yello 2,277 Posted August 10, 2019 Statistically, if last night we'd put all our chances away, we would have won......ish...... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
canarydan23 4,060 Posted August 10, 2019 37 minutes ago, lake district canary said: No, you don't get the point. The future has not been written yet and data and stats do nothing to change that. I'm not so stupid as to think some teams don't have more chance to win the league than others, but equally, the league has to be won - and it does not have to be who you expect it to be because of history/stats or whatever. We could go on a winning streak on the back of yesterday's performance and end up in a few weeks near the top of the table. Ok, I may be a little alternative in my views, but it's not hard to understand - you simply have to put aside your beliefs, prejudices and your reliance on data and see a football match for what it is - one that starts 0-0 and both teams have the ability to win it. We're making progress here. You now seem to have abandoned the idea that the probability of each team winning the league was 20/1. It shouldn't be too great a leap to open your eyes to the fact that in an individual fixture the probability of each team winning also isn't equal. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lake district canary 4,531 Posted August 10, 2019 I have abandoned nothing and it depends on how you look at things. Stats/data/probabilities say that it will be between Man City and Liverpool again, but that is only stats/data/probabilities, which should mean nothing if you are a spurs/chelsea/arsenal fan and to be frank, any fan from any other team in the division - because to say it is a two horse race is to immediately downgrade your team to an also ran. Where is the ambition in thinking your team is an also ran, a certainty to struggle, or whatever? Where is the spark of inspiration in it all, if a fan expects his/her team to finish lower than they would like because the data says they will. I guess you could say - "all the stats/data and probability charts say we will be relegated so if we finish seventeenth we are doing really well". Or you could say, "hey, the stats say we will be relegated but I say phooee to stats because I believe in my team and the way they are doing things and there is no limit to what we could achieve". Which of those offers the most joy? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Disco Dales Jockstrap 1,891 Posted August 10, 2019 (edited) Quote I guess you could say - "all the stats/data and probability charts say we will be relegated so if we finish seventeenth we are doing really well". Or you could say, "hey, the stats say we will be relegated but I say phooee to stats because I believe in my team and the way they are doing things and there is no limit to what we could achieve". Which of those offers the most joy? The first - it's based in reality using your **common sense**. It will be fantastic if we finish 17th - a successful season. Anything more than that will be a billy bonus. We can, of course, all delude ourselves that we are going to finish in the top 4, but I haven't eaten enough unicorn plop from your unicorn farm to get into that zone yet. OTBC Edited August 10, 2019 by Disco Dales Jockstrap Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ward 3 371 Posted August 10, 2019 18 hours ago, canarydan23 said: I think we played incredibly well. 4-1 massively flattered Liverpool. If Klose or Zimmerman were available tonight then I think we'd be having very different conversations on here tonight. Personally I still think we would've lost 3 or 4 1 so not much different conversations. I dont get why jamal Lewis was marking virgil van djik from corners Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jim Smith 2,314 Posted August 11, 2019 I don’t need the stats to tell me we played well for large parts of that game although obviously they are reassuring. There was enough there to suggest we COULD do ok this season because we will create chances against any team. There is a reasonable argument that in the balance of play we didn’t really even deserve to be behind at half time because it’s not like they had us penned in or cut us open constantly we just kept making errors which gifted them goals. The first was unlucky but Aarons should not allow that cross, the second should have been cleared on two occasions and the other two were just appalling defending. In between we arguably had just as good quality if not better chances. However, unless we can stop gifting the opposition a couple of goals in every game we are going to struggle because any team at this level will take advantage of defending like that and it is the one black mark against Farke in my book that he still does not seem to be able to sort out our defending at set pieces in particular. I don’t know if this is a blind spot or the players just are not doing what they are instructed but perhaps he needs a bit of help from a specialist in this area. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cornish sam 942 Posted August 11, 2019 On 10/08/2019 at 10:06, Bethnal Yellow and Green said: Just to add to this. Only Everton, Arsenal, Man City and Leicester managed a greater xG at Anfield last season. The timeline is here. It wasn’t just a case of Liverpool getting 4 goals up and sitting back. https://understat.com/match/11643 Interesting site, but, they say leitner got booked 2 minutes before he came on! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
