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13 minutes ago, Felixfan said:

Surely it is better to plan for he future even if it means some seasons there is spare capacity. The club needs to move on or at least plan to.

they are

that's why they are reluctant to burden the club with debt for years to come when there is no knowledge of where we will be

Delia goes along with Farke/Webber then what ?

Is our PL place guaranteed ?

look at Swansea who were constantly held up as an example for us to follow - they had hambition, they were going to expand their stadium, look at Charlton the same, Sunderland, Bolton

to claim that we would sellout (32,000) the 'big games' in the Championship is bollox - we could not sellout 27,000 last season and all the talk in the early stages was of not renewing ST's

what would be the attendances if we were still there this season, and the one after

also it is fine to talk of attendances, while ignoring the overall ticket money earned if the extra money even with a full house every game is not covering the building cost then what will the cost be when these 'glory hunters' melt away ?

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2 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

And what about the exiles? That's going to cause even more loyalty-type arguments similar to the membership scheme.

A lot of those arguments don't hold much water though.

Unless I've missed it there was never a pecking order in home tickets. Just sale dates for members, ST holders, general sale. I may be wrong but I thought there was no advantage in having attended 10 games the previous year.

Everybody seems to have a case for more entitlement to tickets than other fans.

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4 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Badger, with respect, these arguments are flawed. Yes, if we are in the PL the TV money is the biggest source of income, but everybody gets it. And we almost invariably get less than most. I suspect that since the PL TV money took off into the stratosphere we have always been in the relegation zone as far as that goes.

Certainly in our previous season there, in 2015-16, we  were 19th, with £67m. Watford, for example, a similarish-sized club, got £74m and Swansea £75m.

The point about increasing capacity is that it would bridge that income gap and even surpass it by boosting not just tickets sales but money from catering and commercial. The idea that extra money wouldn't be welcome just because it isn't our main source of income doesn't hold up. Especially if we keep to the self-funding model over the next few decades. Far from being irrelevant, such money is crucial.

In the Championship, no, I imagine we would not fill a ground with a capacity increased, say to 31,000. But you don't have to use all the extra seats for the project still in the long run to be profitable. On another thread I produced figure relating to the South Stand to demonstrate that. Once paid for, then any usage of extra seats is pure profit. If, say, over 40 years  only half the extra seats were filled and only every other season that would still be a significant amount of extra income.

There is a valid argument about whether the club can afford to get into debt, as it did before, now or at any time in the foreseeable future, and a valid argument about what the capacity increase should be. But in the long-term (defined as until the stand collapses several decades ahead) there is no doubt it would make financial sense.

To add some figures to that. In the 15 seasons since the South Stand was doubled,most of those 4,000 seats have been taken up, and not at the expense of other areas of the ground. Impossible to be precise, because attendance figures are not broken down stand by stand. But on average I would say at least 3,000 of those 4,000 seats have been filled per season.

As to how much the stand cost, I remember Doncaster saying it was close to £10m (I dimly recall £9.4m or £9.6m) rather than the £6m said at the time. Perhaps the  difference was the interest we paid. Anyway, add a bit and say, for the sake of argument, it was £12m in total, capital and interest.

If you assume, which is fair, 3,000 seats being filled by season ticketholders paying £500 (or the equivalent from away fans) that will have produced £13.5m over the nine seasons from the work being done to the entire cost, including debt, being paid off. More than my generously rounded-up £12m.

In the six seasons since it was all paid for, so pure profits from then on, 3,000 seats filled at (inflation...) £550 will have brought in £9.9m. And that is without adding on extra money from catering and the club shop etc.

Now it would not be fair to apply that maths to the main stand. It is clear the extra South Stand capacity was necessary, that there were quite enough extra fans out there, and not just in good times. Most of those 15 years were spent outside the PL.

I doubt the same is true now. I would not expect, say, an extra 4,000 seats to be filled all the time, even in the PL. I would be very surprised if that came close to happening. But equally I would be prepared to bet that enough extra seats would be filled enough of the time to make the project very profitable in the long run.

Of course paying off the capital and the debt on the project would be painful, although perhaps not as bad as might be imagined. Six years ago Bowkett put it at £2.5m a year over 20 years. If, say, 2,000 of the extra 4,000 seats were sold every season, at £650 a go, that would produce £1.3m, so  only a bit over £1m to be found from funds.

This discussion tends to get sidetracked by imagining as the club's aim a new capacity figure of 35,000, when I very much doubt it is more than 32,000, by claiming the  extra capacity has to be completely filled all the time to be viable when that plainly is not the case, as the South Stand shows.stand shows, by claiming the club would be financially crippled by having to pay off the debt when that is not the case, and by refusing to look at the long-term picture.

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1 minute ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

The thing is, it's all well and good quoting statistics from 30 years ago, but times have moved on. Attendances in stadiums in general weren't at the level they are now, possibly due to social factors such as hooliganism that don't really exist any more. The average attendances, and overall interest, in English football have been growing steadily and I can't envisage anything on a sporting, social or other level that would lead to attendances plummeting. 

Times are always moving on. Gates are larger than they were 30 years ago but also smaller than they were 60 years ago. Hooliganism didn't exist then either. If we could accurately envisage every change we'd all be millionaires and no clubs would ever go bust through making unwise financial decisions. The thing with history is that it is concrete while projections of the future quite often turn out to be pie in the sky.

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3 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

All I ask is how long is it since a casual supporter, could get two seats together for a match ?  My guess would be before the  2nd division days, because even then my mate could not get two tickets for a home match !

really ?

take a look here mouse brain .... 50 secs about

plenty of spare seats to together in the corner of the River end, as there was for quite a while

 

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12 minutes ago, Bill said:

they are

that's why they are reluctant to burden the club with debt for years to come when there is no knowledge of where we will be

Delia goes along with Farke/Webber then what ?

Is our PL place guaranteed ?

look at Swansea who were constantly held up as an example for us to follow - they had hambition, they were going to expand their stadium, look at Charlton the same, Sunderland, Bolton

to claim that we would sellout (32,000) the 'big games' in the Championship is bollox - we could not sellout 27,000 last season and all the talk in the early stages was of not renewing ST's

what would be the attendances if we were still there this season, and the one after

also it is fine to talk of attendances, while ignoring the overall ticket money earned if the extra money even with a full house every game is not covering the building cost then what will the cost be when these 'glory hunters' melt away ?

There's no way you can say that not expanding is due to thinking about the future. It's the total opposite. It's purely thinking about the here and now, and let's face it, the people running the club now won't be here in ten years anyway. The financial people like Kensall and the football people like Webber will have moved on with their careers so their jobs are revolved around how the club performs over the next couple of seasons. Even Delia and Michael, as much as I love them, aren't getting any younger so they may well rather see some glory while they're still around rather than plan for 20-30 years in advance.

Is our Premier League place guaranteed? No, and it never will be. Aside from the big six and Everton, no club in the Premier League has more than seven consecutive years in it at the moment. Using this logic, no club other than the big six will ever expand a stadium because it's just too risky- but we can see from what other clubs are doing that it clearly isn't the case. They're investing in facilities to maximise the long term potential and value of the club.

Edited by Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man
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3 minutes ago, Bill said:

really ?

take a look here mouse brain .... 50 secs about

plenty of spare seats to together in the corner of the River end, as there was for quite a while

 

Calling people 'mouse brain' and 'clueless numpties' isn't exactly helping your cause and you're spoiling you're a healthy debate.

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6 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

There's no way you can say that not expanding is due to thinking about the future. It's the total opposite. It's pity thinking about the here and now, and let's face it, the running the club now don't be here in ten years anyway. The financial people like Kensall and the football people like Webber will have moved on with their careers so their jobs are revolved around how the club performs over the next couple of seasons. Even Delia and Michael, as much as I love them, aren't getting any younger so they may well rather see some glory while they're still around rather than plan for 20-30 years in advance.

Is our Premier League place guaranteed? No, and it never will be. Aside from the big six and Everton, no club in the Premier League has more than seven consecutive years in it at the moment. Using this logic, no club other than the big six will ever expand a stadium because it's just too risky- but we can see from what other clubs are doing that it clearly isn't the case. They're investing in facilities to maximise the long term potential and value of the club.

Look back to this message board 15 years ago and look at the abuse Delia and Michael got for the South stand and community corner. Despite all the success on the field those facilities are the lasting legacy.

Edited by nutty nigel

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8 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

I don't think that's right Rickyyyy. Those old green gates were duckin' huge...

Indeed and crowds piled out of them by the million😀

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7 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Calling people 'mouse brain' and 'clueless numpties' isn't exactly helping your cause and you're spoiling you're a healthy debate.

Don’t react, his nurse will be along soon with his chill pills......it must be hard living in an old people’s home....having all that free time to argue on a forum 😀

Edited by Indy

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5 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

To add some figures to that. In the 15 seasons since the South Stand was doubled,most of those 4,000 seats have been taken up, and not at the expense of other areas of the ground. Impossible to be precise, because attendance figures are not broken down stand by stand. But on average I would say at least 3,000 of those 4,000 seats have been filled per season.

As to how much the stand cost, I remember Doncaster saying it was close to £10m (I dimly recall £9.4m or £9.6m) rather than the £6m said at the time. Perhaps the  difference was the interest we paid. Anyway, add a bit and say, for the sake of argument, it was £12m in total, capital and interest.

If you assume, which is fair, 3,000 seats being filled by season ticketholders paying £500 (or the equivalent from away fans) that will have produced £13.5m over the nine seasons from the work being done to the entire cost, including debt, being paid off. More than my generously rounded-up £12m.

In the six seasons since it was all paid for, so pure profits from then on, 3,000 seats filled at (inflation...) £550 will have brought in £9.9m. And that is without adding on extra money from catering and the club shop etc.

Now it would not be fair to apply that maths to the main stand. It is clear the extra South Stand capacity was necessary, that there were quite enough extra fans out there, and not just in good times. Most of those 15 years were spent outside the PL.

I doubt the same is true now. I would not expect, say, an extra 4,000 seats to be filled all the time, even in the PL. I would be very surprised if that came close to happening. But equally I would be prepared to bet that enough extra seats would be filled enough of the time to make the project very profitable in the long run.

Of course paying off the capital and the debt on the project would be painful, although perhaps not as bad as might be imagined. Six years ago Bowkett put it at £2.5m a year over 20 years. If, say, 2,000 of the extra 4,000 seats were sold every season, at £650 a go, that would produce £1.3m, so  only a bit over £1m to be found from funds.

This discussion tends to get sidetracked by imagining as the club's aim a new capacity figure of 35,000, when I very much doubt it is more than 32,000, by claiming the  extra capacity has to be completely filled all the time to be viable when that plainly is not the case, as the South Stand shows.stand shows, by claiming the club would be financially crippled by having to pay off the debt when that is not the case, and by refusing to look at the long-term picture.

deeply flawed figures as if the South stand was filled every game it would still only generate one 7th of the total ticket income

in 2018 that was 9.8m so the extra seats generated around £1.4 m - assuming every seat was sold for every game.

now if the fgure of 320 is to be accepted it's goin to take an awfully long time to pay off the capital - never mind the interest

and again there is no answrr to the question of what happens if we don't stay in the PL ?

It is not one of having to take longer to pay off the debt, but of a risk of defaulting as did the paupers down the road, where the half wit Sheepshanks funded the redevelopment of poorman rd by a 25 year securitisation on future ticket income ie they would be in the PL for all those 25 years !

if this lunacy would be losing money in a sold out PL, where is the money to come from if we drop down ?

as we will still have to service the debt

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3 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

Look back to this message board 15 years ago and look at the abuse Delia and Michael got for the South stand and community corner. Despite all the success on the field those facilities are the lasting legacy.

Which sort of proves my point. Some people may argue against it in the short term, but in the long term we'll be grateful. 

As I've said before, the work needs to be done at some point in the future. Whether you have a nice football stadium, a nice house, a nice office block etc., you still need to invest money in it to keep it up to standard. Work will need to be done on Carrow Road at some point; it's unavoidable. We are in the strongest position financially we will be in for years, with Premier League TV money and a squad will so many valuable assets. It makes sense to do it now, and then Delia and Michael can leave a lovely refurbished City Stand as their legacy.

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11 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

There's no way you can say that not expanding is due to thinking about the future. It's the total opposite. It's purely thinking about the here and now, and let's face it, the people running the club now won't be here in ten years anyway. The financial people like Kensall and the football people like Webber will have moved on with their careers so their jobs are revolved around how the club performs over the next couple of seasons. Even Delia and Michael, as much as I love them, aren't getting any younger so they may well rather see some glory while they're still around rather than plan for 20-30 years in advance.

Is our Premier League place guaranteed? No, and it never will be. Aside from the big six and Everton, no club in the Premier League has more than seven consecutive years in it at the moment. Using this logic, no club other than the big six will ever expand a stadium because it's just too risky- but we can see from what other clubs are doing that it clearly isn't the case. They're investing in facilities to maximise the long term potential and value of the club.

absolute nonsense 1

as no one has demonstrated how receiving less from ticket income than building costs is a worthy idea

now tell me what the interest at 8% would be on a £20m loan

then assure me that all thise seats would be sold over the period of that loan

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Ticket revenue is near inconsequential compared to the income from sustained Premier League football. We should concentrate on trying to achieve that first.

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Just now, Bill said:

absolute nonsense 1

as no one has demonstrated how receiving less from ticket income than building costs is a worthy idea

now tell me what the interest at 8% would be on a £20m loan

then assure me that all thise seats would be sold over the period of that loan

For your first point, a few people have done- see previous posts.

For your second point, I'm not an accountant.

For your third point, there's no way you can guarantee it but that isn't the point- see previous posts.

I really don't think I can argue against these points without just copying exactly what I've said previously.

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Just now, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

For your first point, a few people have done- see previous posts.

For your second point, I'm not an accountant.

For your third point, there's no way you can guarantee it but that isn't the point- see previous posts.

I really don't think I can argue against these points without just copying exactly what I've said previously.

Wanting something and not knowing how much it costs or how you are going to pay for it is not a good look. Hopefully you are not a Board member.

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Just now, Hoola Han Solo said:

Ticket revenue is near inconsequential compared to the income from sustained Premier League football. We should concentrate on trying to achieve that first.

Then in that case we'll never expand and this debate will still continue to rage on a monthly basis until it finally gets done. Every club outside the big six, and maybe Everton on the borderline, are a couple of bad seasons away from relegation and I can't see that changing. 

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Just now, ricardo said:

Wanting something and not knowing how much it costs or how you are going to pay for it is not a good look. Hopefully you are not a Board member.

It's been quoted at around £30m. We could bring in more than that from the sale of two players. Transfers are generally paid over a period of three-five years so we could potentially bite the bullet and use the vast majority of the incoming funds to pay for the stand without getting an extortionate bank loan.

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So at least e have now reached the point where the earlier posts about increasing income have been disproved

It would be £1.6m, rather more than the extra capacity would generate at 100% occupancy - and that is interest, not capital.

As you or no one on here has been able to guarantee our league standing then this would be a risk of possible bankruptcy, or severe curtailment to the playing budget.

And that has been my point.

Discuss and propose ideas but they should be based on fact not some ill informed tosh as earlier.

 

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1 minute ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Then in that case we'll never expand and this debate will still continue to rage on a monthly basis until it finally gets done. Every club outside the big six, and maybe Everton on the borderline, are a couple of bad seasons away from relegation and I can't see that changing. 

We would all like to see every aspect of the club continuing to expand but that doesnt mean we have a devine right to have it supplied to us. I expect and hope that the custodians of the club will act in its best interests.

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Just now, Bill said:

So at least e have now reached the point where the earlier posts about increasing income have been disproved

It would be £1.6m, rather more than the extra capacity would generate at 100% occupancy - and that is interest, not capital.

As you or no one on here has been able to guarantee our league standing then this would be a risk of possible bankruptcy, or severe curtailment to the playing budget.

And that has been my point.

Discuss and propose ideas but they should be based on fact not some ill informed tosh as earlier.

 

Curtailing the playing budget is fine. Short term for long term gain. The stand will last decades.

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4 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Then in that case we'll never expand and this debate will still continue to rage on a monthly basis until it finally gets done. Every club outside the big six, and maybe Everton on the borderline, are a couple of bad seasons away from relegation and I can't see that changing. 

perhaps that is why they haven't been rushing to indebt themselves

and this whine only comes up when we are in the PL.... odd that ?

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4 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Then in that case we'll never expand and this debate will still continue to rage on a monthly basis until it finally gets done. Every club outside the big six, and maybe Everton on the borderline, are a couple of bad seasons away from relegation and I can't see that changing. 

And how many of those clubs have expanded their stadiums in recent times? Barely any; a few of them have lower capacities than us too.

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Just now, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Curtailing the playing budget is fine. Short term for long term gain. The stand will last decades.

ah yes, the magic money tree

that will pay that debt when we are on the Championship on less than £10m ticket income

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9 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Which sort of proves my point. Some people may argue against it in the short term, but in the long term we'll be grateful. 

As I've said before, the work needs to be done at some point in the future. Whether you have a nice football stadium, a nice house, a nice office block etc., you still need to invest money in it to keep it up to standard. Work will need to be done on Carrow Road at some point; it's unavoidable. We are in the strongest position financially we will be in for years, with Premier League TV money and a squad will so many valuable assets. It makes sense to do it now, and then Delia and Michael can leave a lovely refurbished City Stand as their legacy.

I don't think anybody wouldn't like a better and bigger stadium. But the desire to have it seems to only happen when we are promoted. It was hardly mentioned the previous two seasons. My concern is that it won't come with a relegation clause. Would be great if it did! Having sat through various regimes giving the financial picture something they all agreed was the difficulty running a business that could have it's income slashed, so brutally, as happens upon relegation. 

I'm not an expert though. Purple and others makes a good case for doing it. Rickyy and others  make a good case for not. I guess we have to trust the powers that be to know best.

It will be interesting to hear any debate that happens at the AGM. There hasn't been any for a while.

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Its bound to come up this year NN.

I dont expect the answer will be any different.

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7 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

I don't think anybody wouldn't like a better and bigger stadium. But the desire to have it seems to only happen when we are promoted. It was hardly mentioned the previous two seasons. My concern is that it won't come with a relegation clause. Would be great if it did! Having sat through various regimes giving the financial picture something they all agreed was the difficulty running a business that could have it's income slashed, so brutally, as happens upon relegation. 

I'm not an expert though. Purple and others makes a good case for doing it. Rickyy and others  make a good case for not. I guess we have to trust the powers that be to know best.

It will be interesting to hear any debate that happens at the AGM. There hasn't been any for a while.

 

13 minutes ago, Bill said:

ah yes, the magic money tree

that will pay that debt when we are on the Championship on less than £10m ticket income

In order to address the two posts above at once, I'll put forward a suggestion. 

If we stay up this year, we sell the two of the four high value assets in the squad which I mentioned earlier. That should raise around £50m after a good Premier League season. That money will come into the club over a period of three to five years, and we then invest £20m of it on their replacements and £30m on the stand, with both of those two investments covered instantly without the need for any external bank loans, interest etc.

Best case scenario? We stay up again, we have the stand, and everyone's happy. Worst case scenario? We go down. But the stand is there (or at least under construction) and there's no debt because it's all been covered. We may not fill it every week in the second tier, but that's when we can subsidise tickets for kids and build for the future. And then when we get promoted back to the Premier League, the stand is there.

15 minutes ago, Hoola Han Solo said:

And how many of those clubs have expanded their stadiums in recent times? Barely any; a few of them have lower capacities than us too.

In the past decade, teams who are non-established in the Premier League or pushing to reach it like Cardiff, Brighton, Wolves and Bristol City have all invested, and over the next decade you can guarantee that several others will others invest too.

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In reply to Billy boy, re the Middlesborough match. (yes I can see it, as it was used as a quote, even though I've blocked you, for calling me names.)  isn't the south stand full of season tickets holder, they don't become available till it's too late 

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21 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

In reply to Billy boy, re the Middlesborough match. (yes I can see it, as it was used as a quote, even though I've blocked you, for calling me names.)  isn't the south stand full of season tickets holder, they don't become available till it's too late 

Shhhhh, the adults are talking 

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