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Alex Moss

Where will we finish next season - predictions.

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1 hour ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Just out of interest, when was the last time a club finished in the top six in their first season? That lot down the road in 2001?

With how football is nowadays, a top six finish is nearly on par with Forest winning the league as a newly-promoted side in the 70s.

I was enjoying this thread, until you mentioned THEM. 🤮

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4 hours ago, Cantiaci Canary said:

Really concerned about being sliced apart with our current defenders ... love the guys at the back but need a big signing there.

Heart says 16/17

Head says 18/19

My thought exactly. We move the ball well. We have the ability and skill to be a threat in front of goal. However, defensive errors happened all too often last season which, when presented to a Champs team, didn’t cause us too many problems. But give those chance to a Prem team and we’ll be punished.

I’m still going with 13th.

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7 hours ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

Just out of interest, when was the last time a club finished in the top six in their first season? That lot down the road in 2001?

Correct. 

OTBC

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55 minutes ago, JF said:

Seasons surprise package 12th - 9th

My take exactly JF

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8 hours ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

You've said 3rd...he's said 17th. The average finish for a team in their first season after promotion is around 15/16. His predication would seem to be based more on real data than yours.

Any predication is fine....but it helps if it's based in the realms of reality rather than fantasy. Roughly 50% of newly promoted teams go down in their first season.

To suggest the above is utter b0llocks imo.

 

As for me, I don't normally make predications until August as you need to see the ins and outs before being certain of what we can do...and I'm certainly not going to change the habit of a life time now. :classic_tongue:

OTBC

Exactly this.

Last season Wolves spent £100m to add to their squad and finished 7th which was seen as the big success story of the season.

Anyone can predict what they want but it is disingenuous for people to claim a prediction of 3rd or 4th is based on anything over than pure blind faith.

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Hoping 16th or 17th but relistically going to be very difficult to be out of the bottom 3.

But either way I will be happy, we would have applied our style, hopefully, throughout the season. A few young players will be sold and we will have £££ to help keep this club on safe ground if we stay up or go down.

As noted defensive fragilities will show in some games and we may have runs of not winning a game for a fair few games. If we can minimise concentration errors and not have long winless runs we will be in a good position.

I always remember Adam Drury defending a corner and he allowed the ball to cross his body so he could clear the ball with his left foot. Alas Lauren charged in and scored, which would have been avoided if he had cleared with his right foot. Concentration levels are critical in this division and mistakes will be made as we play attacking football, just hope we score the goals to allow us to play this great style. I think with the greedy, fearless group we have they will score goals so hopefully that defensive midfielder can be brought in to command that area.

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3 minutes ago, smooth said:

I always remember Adam Drury defending a corner and he allowed the ball to cross his body so he could clear the ball with his left foot. Alas Lauren charged in and scored, which would have been avoided if he had cleared with his right foot. Concentration levels are critical in this division and mistakes will be made as we play attacking football, just hope we score the goals to allow us to play this great style. I think with the greedy, fearless group we have they will score goals so hopefully that defensive midfielder can be brought in to command that area.

This might be my mind playing tricks on me but I swear that happened against Chelsea that season.

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I recall it at the river end just before half time and we were in the game until that goal.

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18 minutes ago, king canary said:

Last season Wolves spent £100m to add to their squad and finished 7th which was seen as the big success story of the season.

The ‘unimproved’ edition of Wolves had also just destroyed the Championship, in a way we didn’t quite do this season gone.

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I would never have predicted we would win the championship so have no clue what will happen next season.

But that’s just how I want it. I can’t wait to see how the young uns continue to develop and look forward to the adulation they get on MoTD they so richly deserve. I can’t wait to see how Pukki copes with the step up but fully expect him to keep scoring with the chances we all know we can create...against anyone. I can’t wait to see our newly crowned midfield magician Buendía light up the PL and have as good an impact as Madders has had this season. I can’t wait for Stiepermann to bamboozle the very top clubs in the game with his awkward ‘I look like I can’t play football (or any sport) but I’m actually really good....look I’ve just gone past you and scored’ style and more importantly, his celebrations. I can’t wait for Krul to continue to prove city fans wrong. I can’t wait for Mayor Kenny to continue to prove me wrong. I can’t wait for Onel to scare full backs s*****ss and then lose the ball. I can’t wait for Mario to get his chance to be an automatic pick in our starting 11. I can’t wait for our new signings to look like they’ve played for us forever and seamlessly slot into our setup. I can’t wait to see the next phase of the Barclay flags and rightly grace the biggest stage. I can’t wait for Farke to say ‘big compliments to the lads’ again.

To sum up....I can’t wait 😊

 

I’m going to enjoy whatever happens and trust in Webber and Farke that we will give it as good a go as possible in the PL.

 

 

 

 

(Fence sitting at its finest)

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A solid 15th, being safe with the last couple of games to go. 👍

And at least a league above Ipswich...who will be on their 3rd manager of the season by then and going to promotion-chasing Sunderland to try to secure their League 1 status for another year. 🤭🤣

Apples

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38 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

Ok, I've put a tenner on finishing top six at 66/1.  If we do it, I'll give half of it to Pups.

 

 

Well it's tempting...

I still think it's so early to start predicting, yet I like the optimism in (parts of) the thread. I too think we could be the surprise package next season , but I think we are underestimating the opposition if we think we will get away with serving up the same style of football each game!!! We need more plan B , C and D's to outwit the tough opposition we will come up against. 

Do we have the players to do that? Well I reckon we need a few astute signings... let's hope Webber can do his thing again

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1 hour ago, GenerationA47 said:

The ‘unimproved’ edition of Wolves had also just destroyed the Championship, in a way we didn’t quite do this season gone.

I wouldn't say that wolves destroyed the championship more than we did. They won more, but we lost fewer and scored far more (in fact only Bournemouth in the last 13 seasons scored more than us). I would say that we were more destructive but they were better disciplined...

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1 hour ago, smooth said:

I recall it at the river end just before half time and we were in the game until that goal.

I remember it as the River end too but I'm pretty confident it was against Chelsea not Arsenal- Lauren didn't score against us that season for sure though.

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1 minute ago, king canary said:

I remember it as the River end too but I'm pretty confident it was against Chelsea not Arsenal- Lauren didn't score against us that season for sure though.

Actually looking at the match reports it seems it was v Arsenal but Pires scored.

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I feel that we have enough about us to produce that surprise element, such as it is.

Our style of play and strengths as an attacking force were well publicised towards the end of the last season for sure but that was against Championship defenses.

Premier League teams are defensively much better to a team but we will surely thwart a few.

I believe bottom ten is an absolute certainty.

The 'surprise element' being that we might stand a decent chance of avoiding the bottom three places come the dog end of the season.

In with a shout of survival with six games to go will be a good season as far as I am concerned.

Factors that might see us do even better:

Summer business with the acquisition of a truly top performing defensive midfielder.

Ditto and the acquisition of a truly top performing additional striker.

A disruptive and disastrous season for at least one of our rivals down there.

VAR mitigating against the decisions usually favouring the 'big teams.'

The discovery of an efficient penalty taker.

The little effigies of each team's star player that I have knitted and my newly acquired collection of pins.

An outbreak of Asian flu, or the likes, effecting the North-East of England.

A new and even more matted coat of pink paint on the walls of the away side's dressing room.

A return to the singing version of 'On the Ball City.'

Few injuries.

Luck.

Sorry to lean towards negativism but wouldn't we all settle for 17th. place at this first bite of the cherry?

 

Edited by BroadstairsR

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1 hour ago, lake district canary said:

Ok, I've put a tenner on finishing top six at 66/1.  If we do it, I'll give half of it to Pups.

 

 

Top 4 500/1 with Betvic.

To win the league 5000/1 - EW is around 1666/1 to place (Top 2)

Genuinley, it was only 50/1 that Ailen life form was proven in 2018.

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14 hours ago, lake district canary said:

Why should predicting finishing 4th be ridiculous?  I just don't get the way people put the PL up on a pedestal so much.  Apart from the top two, the rest of the PL last season was distinctly average

I do wonder if you post these things just to be controversial sometimes?

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To be fair to Lakey, didn't he predict first place after the first half dozen games last season - to the derision of most?

If he's right this season, I'm fully prepared to admit he's genuinely a 'seer'.

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11 hours ago, Fr. Chewy Louie said:

Maybe you should have given PUPS the two quid...

But I can still do that. However if I had done it instead I couldn't still do the £350.

Be careful about the large sums guys. A poster called Mike did that last season and still owes £250 because we finished in the top six and he bet xymox £250 that we wouldn't. I think the board's lost him. Similarly our old friend King Keano who suggested that me and he went £1 a point for the difference between our two clubs. 

In football the unlikely can and does sometimes happen.

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36 minutes ago, CDMullins said:

Top 4 500/1 with Betvic.

To win the league 5000/1 - EW is around 1666/1 to place (Top 2)

Genuinley, it was only 50/1 that Ailen life form was proven in 2018.

Notable also that the longest odds for a team to win the Championship is about 150-1. 

Winning the league last season was remarkable but clearly breaking into the top 4 is considered a much tougher task.

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13 hours ago, lake district canary said:

Just as much substance that says we will be rolling around at the bottom of the table when the evidence is that our level of football this season has been exceptional by any standards.   People are entitled to think we are going to struggle, as I am entitled to think that we will do well.  But don't pretend you are any more correct in your views than I am,  because at this point none of us really know what will happen next season. 

Maybe a prediction is only ok if it fits in with the "we will struggle" mentality...........

I think it will need a mighty effort to do well, but on the evidence of last season our cracking group of players, many of whom are going to do well in the PL as they develop, will show that last season was no fluke and we will cause problems for every team we will come up against right up to Man City and Liverpool. To suggest we won't is defeatism imo. 

The Premiership was reduced to 20 teams for the 95/96 season, so only 2 teams were promoted from the Championship that season. Since then, 23 seasons have been played, with 69 promoted teams competing. There will have been seasons when teams have performed exceptionally in the Championship (I don't think securing promotion in the penultimate match was particularly exceptional) and there will have been seasons when teams just scraped in.

Below is a list of what position those teams have achieved in their first season in the Premiership following promotion, how many times they have achieved that position and the percentage that position has been achieved. 

This is obviously very basic research but, based on nothing but the results of the last 23 seasons, there is an approximately 43% chance that we will be relegated next season. I think this shows why a lot of people think we will struggle-it's not defeatism, it's being realistic.

Position Occasions Percentage
1st 0 0
2nd 0 0
3rd 0 0
4th 0 0
5th 1 1.449275362
6th 0 0
7th 2 2.898550725
8th 1 1.449275362
9th 6 8.695652174
10th 4 5.797101449
11th 3 4.347826087
12th 4 5.797101449
13th 4 5.797101449
14th 2 2.898550725
15th 3 4.347826087
16th 5 7.246376812
17th 4 5.797101449
18th 10 14.49275362
19th 10 14.49275362
20th 10 14.49275362
   
     
My prediction is 17th.    
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
     
Edited by Mr Angry
Forgot to include my prediction
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15 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

So if we avoid relegation we'll most likely finish 9th.

🙃

It's more likely than finishing in the top 4 😜

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I'll go 15th. I think we will get absolutely annihilated in the 4 games at Scousers and Man City but we'll be competitive against everyone else.

I'm genuinely optimistic and think we have a very good team capable of doing well next season. However, to suggest top 6 is delusional. I can genuinely see us beating a few of the top six but to suggest we will be more consistent than them, words fail me...

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