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CANARYKING

Promotion betting odds back in August

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Some people have posted photos of their betting slips from the start of the season, I think the odds were pretty good 🙂

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Yes now you can get 1.35 for the title. Put a tenner on for £3.50. 

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Slightly off topic but a friend of mine had a fiver on Pukki Golden Boot @ 100/1 at the beginning of the season.

 Insane at the time but looking anything but now :classic_smile:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited by ......and Smith must score.
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Me. I did City to be promoted, Ipswich to be relegated double at 25/1. I only put a tenner on though :classic_sad:

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I've had various bets on Betfair for a while now, but been trading out of my positions as I have gone along - guarantee the profit.

I had us winning at 120:1 but sold out at the end of September for 44/46:1.  Before the Wednesday game I bought into Leeds for a fiver (4.3:1) and Sheff United for £3 (25:1).  I've sold out Sheff U a bit to guarantee a profit if we win (£6 profit on initial stake of £4), but stand to make £31 if the blades get it.  To be fair, I don't want the Blades to get it, but I can see us having to get something out of Villa on the final day if we want the title. Which I am not hopeful of.  

Put £6 on us for top 6 at 5.3 mid august, and sold out at 1.26 at the beginning of December, taking home £17 in the process.

Backed Pukki for top scorer, £5 at 16.5:1 at the end of September, and have progressively sold out of that to pick up £5 profit.

Backed us for promotion, £5 at 7.8 at 30 September, and sold out at 2.18 at the beginning of December. to guarantee £12.5 profit.

I fully expected the post Christmas slump but I sold out too quickly on us winning.  If I'd have waited for the beginning of December, I would have got odds of 5:1 to sell out, and made £100 easily.  My problem is that I've been a Norwich fan for too long.  I've seen far too many strong starts and far too many post Christmas collapses.  I bet to sell out of them when I've made enough profit to make it worthwhile, not to win the bet.

Sadly, I sold out of the draw against Wednesday - £5@4.6:1, sold out @2.9:1, and placed at 8:1 for a Norwich win.  Would have made £24 if we had won, or £18 if I'd have held to for the draw, so ended up basically flat on that bet.  But never mind.  No money lost.

And no, I'm not a binner.  I'm just not a gambler.  I'm a trader.  I pick bets that I think are more likely than the market believes, and trade out when the market catches up.  Hence doing Betfair Exchange rather than a traditional bookies.  It helps that my day job requires me to understand derivatives trading (which is essentially what Betfair Exchange is).

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I genuinely had a good feeling about us this season (as all my posts right from the first day prove), I truly believed in Farke. Don’t think I’ll win this double but I did get quite close. We were indeed 25/1 to win the league with Paddy Power : )

1B735174-0DB0-4A9D-BA95-6DCF268674D2.png

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We got some great pledges from generous people at the start of the season..

And of course Mike has to cough up £250.

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13 minutes ago, Alex Moss said:

I genuinely had a good feeling about us this season (as all my posts right from the first day prove), I truly believed in Farke. Don’t think I’ll win this double but I did get quite close. We were indeed 25/1 to win the league with Paddy Power : )

1B735174-0DB0-4A9D-BA95-6DCF268674D2.png

Forgive my ignorance, but doesn't that slip say you only need Norwich to finish top 3 and Liverpool to finish top 2?

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16 minutes ago, Ian said:

Forgive my ignorance, but doesn't that slip say you only need Norwich to finish top 3 and Liverpool to finish top 2?

Think you're right on that.  The Norwich standalone odds suggest that it is a promotion bet, not an outright winner bet.

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That’s not a promotion bet, it’s 25/1 for us to outright win the league, which is what I bet on and is what is stated on the bet receipt. We were far lower odds just to be promoted. However, I did choose each way for ‘insurance’. I have absolutely no idea what that would pay if say we won the league but Liverpool come 2nd to Man City - probably about £30 or something, the mathematics of it confuses the hell out of me. 

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1 hour ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

He'd get £90 for that, if I'm not mistaken. The full amount if they both come first.

Yeah sorry - should have qualified that it wouldn't be the full amount but was surprised when Alex said he wouldn't win it.

1.5 x 6 x 10 ish. 9-1 is a tidy profit!

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Hi Ian, sorry I meant that I don’t think I will win the main bet - I think we’ll take our league, but it looks to me like Man City will win the Premier League, so I guess that means about £90 as some of you have helpfully worked out.

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18 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

It's £90.63, to be precise. £715 for the win part, £90.63 for the place.

Thanks Wacky, I guess I’d better hope Man Utd do something remarkable tonight then!

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In answer to the OP, I had a little pre-season flutter.

I got 7/1 on 29 July from Bet365 on Norwich being promoted. Placed £5 and currently sitting at £39.61 although I’ve no intention of cashing out.

No idea if there were better odds at the time I just fancied we might have a good season and be a good outside bet for promotion. I can’t recall what the odds were for us winning it, but I clearly not long enough to tempt me in with a cheeky £1 😬.

Rather like Kathy’s double though, wish I had thought of that 👍👏.

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2 hours ago, Alex Moss said:

Hi Ian, sorry I meant that I don’t think I will win the main bet - I think we’ll take our league, but it looks to me like Man City will win the Premier League, so I guess that means about £90 as some of you have helpfully worked out.

Any way you can cash out early? :classic_smile:

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3 minutes ago, Ian said:

Any way you can cash out early? :classic_smile:

Don’t think I can mate, can’t see an option for it! Just have to hope Man City slip up, and Liverpool take advantage. Not worried about our boys though, that title’s coming home!

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5 hours ago, Bobzilla said:

I've had various bets on Betfair for a while now, but been trading out of my positions as I have gone along - guarantee the profit.

I had us winning at 120:1 but sold out at the end of September for 44/46:1.  Before the Wednesday game I bought into Leeds for a fiver (4.3:1) and Sheff United for £3 (25:1).  I've sold out Sheff U a bit to guarantee a profit if we win (£6 profit on initial stake of £4), but stand to make £31 if the blades get it.  To be fair, I don't want the Blades to get it, but I can see us having to get something out of Villa on the final day if we want the title. Which I am not hopeful of.  

Put £6 on us for top 6 at 5.3 mid august, and sold out at 1.26 at the beginning of December, taking home £17 in the process.

Backed Pukki for top scorer, £5 at 16.5:1 at the end of September, and have progressively sold out of that to pick up £5 profit.

Backed us for promotion, £5 at 7.8 at 30 September, and sold out at 2.18 at the beginning of December. to guarantee £12.5 profit.

I fully expected the post Christmas slump but I sold out too quickly on us winning.  If I'd have waited for the beginning of December, I would have got odds of 5:1 to sell out, and made £100 easily.  My problem is that I've been a Norwich fan for too long.  I've seen far too many strong starts and far too many post Christmas collapses.  I bet to sell out of them when I've made enough profit to make it worthwhile, not to win the bet.

Sadly, I sold out of the draw against Wednesday - £5@4.6:1, sold out @2.9:1, and placed at 8:1 for a Norwich win.  Would have made £24 if we had won, or £18 if I'd have held to for the draw, so ended up basically flat on that bet.  But never mind.  No money lost.

And no, I'm not a binner.  I'm just not a gambler.  I'm a trader.  I pick bets that I think are more likely than the market believes, and trade out when the market catches up.  Hence doing Betfair Exchange rather than a traditional bookies.  It helps that my day job requires me to understand derivatives trading (which is essentially what Betfair Exchange is).

As I was reading that I thought it sounded more like hedge fund management than betting. Fair play to you!

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5 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

As I was reading that I thought it sounded more like hedge fund management than betting. Fair play to you!

It basically is.  It's why I don't usually bet on individual games as I usually don't have the time (or inclination) to keep an eye on what the market is doing over a 2 hour period - the long game is much easier.  Although to be fair I was keeping an eye on movements on Easter Monday to work out what I wanted to do in respect of my Sheffield United title bet.  But I'm not going to make any more trades this season.  I'm happy with my positions.

And there you go, more hedge fund management talk.

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3 hours ago, Foxy2600 said:

And what of next season, more to the point? 18-1 to stay up perhaps?

Next season will be more difficult.  I don't know whether there will be a market for 'staying up' or whether it is just relegation, meaning that if I want to back Norwich to stay up, I have to 'lay' them to go down.  In other words, I will become the bookie rather than the punter.  So I could be risking rather a lot of money to make it worthwhile.  Which isn't really in my playbook.

Or, more accurately, isn't really in my wife's playbook, so doing that would result in my **** being removed and used as a skippy purse.  Which isn't really in my playbook.

Edited by Bobzilla

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8/1 promotion Ladbrokes in May. First time I have bottled it and not gone for the title. I am ashamed. At the moment.

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On 24/04/2019 at 18:27, Hansterbubble said:

In answer to the OP, I had a little pre-season flutter.

I got 7/1 on 29 July from Bet365 on Norwich being promoted. Placed £5 and currently sitting at £39.61 although I’ve no intention of cashing out.

No idea if there were better odds at the time I just fancied we might have a good season and be a good outside bet for promotion. I can’t recall what the odds were for us winning it, but I clearly not long enough to tempt me in with a cheeky £1 😬.

Rather like Kathy’s double though, wish I had thought of that 👍👏.

That bet will pay out a maximum of £40, why would you not cash out for £39.61?

Basically you are now staking £39.61 to win 39p

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