JF 694 Posted April 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, Coneys Knee said: It doesn’t seem very likely at all JF. I don’t think anybody would disputes that. But, how likely did this sound? Leeds at home to Wigan, Wigan go down to ten men, Leeds go one nil up, Wigan score twice to win! It isn’t negative or pessimistic to be cautious or worried. I know my worries are largely irrational, however, “unlikely” isn’t good enough for me personally as “mathematical”, however it’s dressed up. That’s all. That kind of strengthens the point that this unlikely scenario of Leeds over taking us wont happen. As you just said, they lost at home to 10 man Wigan and now to stand any chance they have to comfortably beat the divisions form team. The results would have to be something like this Norwich 0 Blackburn 2 Villa 2 Norwich 0 Leeds 2 Villa 0 Ipswich 0 Leeds 5 I would imagine £10 on those results if they came in would clear most people’s mortgages! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,748 Posted April 23, 2019 (edited) 4 minutes ago, JF said: That kind of strengthens the point that this unlikely scenario of Leeds over taking us wont happen. As you just said, they lost at home to 10 man Wigan and now to stand any chance they have to comfortably beat the divisions form team. The results would have to be something like this Norwich 0 Blackburn 2 Villa 2 Norwich 0 Leeds 2 Villa 0 Ipswich 0 Leeds 5 I would imagine £10 on those results if they came in would clear most people’s mortgages! ...thats certainly not an outlandish set of results by any means.....job not done yet...and we're only in control of half of those fixtures Edited April 23, 2019 by GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dylanisabaddog 4,907 Posted April 23, 2019 6 hours ago, JF said: Big difference! I done it quickly on 365 Oh dear...... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JF 694 Posted April 23, 2019 Just now, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said: ...thats certainly not an outlandish set of results by any means.....job not done yet...and we're only in control if half of those fixtures Really, not an outlandish set of results? The last time we failed to score in a match in the league was against Hull, 26 matches ago Just now, dylanisabaddog said: Oh dear...... Why oh dear.....? It’s the quickest app to open up to get a price on for reference. I can’t use them to place a bet as I’m stake restricted by them to 11p per bet!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hansterbubble 55 Posted April 23, 2019 All logic and reason says we will go up. Bet365 are currently offering me odds of 1/1000 on us being promoted and my early season bet of £5 at 7/1 on promotion is currently sitting at £39.61 so only 39p short of a full pay out. I am not celebrating yet or cashing out as the job isn’t quite done. But as I say, I do feel confident that we will get the point that we need. We’ve been rolling along at an average of 2 points per game for a while so why not a win on Saturday and a draw with Villa? That’s seems much more likely to me than some freaky sets of results. I do understand the feelings that people are going through though, being so close and having to wait is awful and allows that fear of something weird happening to grow. Fortunately my rational side is stronger than my emotional side and I can convince myself it will be fine. 👍😁 It will be, I’m just keeping the champagne on ice till it’s done. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,748 Posted April 23, 2019 1 minute ago, JF said: Really, not an outlandish set of results? The last time we failed to score in a match in the league was against Hull, 26 matches ago Why oh dear.....? It’s the quickest app to open up to get a price on for reference. I can’t use them to place a bet as I’m stake restricted by them to 11p per bet!! Change it to norwich 1-3 blackburn....same difference Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coneys Knee 952 Posted April 23, 2019 Well put hansterbubble. My point is simply that until it is mathematically done, nobody can say what will or won’t happen, and in the mean time I’m nervous. Not pessimistic, nervous. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JF 694 Posted April 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said: Change it to norwich 1-3 blackburn....same difference We’ve only lost at home by more that one goal once this season. Leeds. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,748 Posted April 23, 2019 (edited) 5 minutes ago, JF said: We’ve only lost at home by more that one goal once this season. Leeds. ....just because it hasnt happened....doesnt mean it cant....(sheffs weds nearly went 3-1 up a couple of mins before Vrancic equalized) Pressure can do funny things.... Edited April 23, 2019 by GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hansterbubble 55 Posted April 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said: ....just because it hasnt happened....doesnt mean it cant Pressure can do funny things.... Indeed it can. We are all heavily invested and feeling it, just coping in our different ways I guess. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dylanisabaddog 4,907 Posted April 23, 2019 10 minutes ago, JF said: Really, not an outlandish set of results? The last time we failed to score in a match in the league was against Hull, 26 matches ago Why oh dear.....? It’s the quickest app to open up to get a price on for reference. I can’t use them to place a bet as I’m stake restricted by them to 11p per bet!! The woman who owns Bet365 earned £565 million last year. Now we know why..... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JF 694 Posted April 23, 2019 Just now, dylanisabaddog said: The woman who owns Bet365 earned £565 million last year. Now we know why..... Why....? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
lake district canary 4,531 Posted April 23, 2019 6 hours ago, Ian said: 6 hours ago, lake district canary said: I just think that those of us that know it isn't done and dusted yet can't understand why people can think otherwise. The facts are there. We need to get a point against Blackburn to make sure and there is no room for error - lose that match and we give Leeds hope and we do not want to do that! The match on Saturday is as much a cup final as any of our matches this season. It's not a party until we draw or better still win. Of course there's room for error. Even if we somehow contrive to lose heavily to Blackburn we still need just 1 point away at Villa, and that's assuming Leeds somehow recover from their malaise to turn Villa over. I think everyone understands that there is still a very minimal possibility Leeds could turn this around and finish above us, but there's no need to embellish this with factual inaccuracies LDC. If you read it again you will see the point was that we don't want to give Leeds a sniff and to make sure of that we need to get a point on Saturday. Lose Saturday and Leeds win on Sunday and they still have hope going into the last game - and I wouldn't trust L1pswich not to roll over and let them win easily in the final game - and that would put huge pressure on our final game with Villa. We need to do the business this Saturday. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coneys Knee 952 Posted April 23, 2019 For me, talking about statistics of points per game, number of and margins of defeat is all just probability. It does nothing more than give an indication of most likely outcome. It doesn’t guarantee anything. That cannot be argued surely. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,748 Posted April 23, 2019 I'd love to think we'll go out and put on a display of champagne football vs Blackburn and cruise to a comfortable win with 'oles' on our every touch for the last 10 minutes.......but we know that in all probability it just wont be like that. ....its going to be another fraught night at carrow rd, I sense.. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Hansterbubble 55 Posted April 23, 2019 Agreed Coney, nothing is guaranteed. For me those statistics help rationalise away the fear. Blackburn have won their last 4 so I’m not taking anything for granted, but that was against Derby, Forest, QPR and Bolton. I think we will be a stiffer test and on past performances I think we will win. I can’t guarantee it though and we may end up having a late Pukki strike or Vrancic free kick to grab a point! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted April 23, 2019 1 minute ago, Hansterbubble said: Agreed Coney, nothing is guaranteed. For me those statistics help rationalise away the fear. Blackburn have won their last 4 so I’m not taking anything for granted, but that was against Derby, Forest, QPR and Bolton. I think we will be a stiffer test and on past performances I think we will win. I can’t guarantee it though and we may end up having a late Pukki strike or Vrancic free kick to grab a point! **** they’ve won their last 4 😱 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JF 694 Posted April 23, 2019 20 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said: ....just because it hasnt happened....doesnt mean it cant....(sheffs weds nearly went 3-1 up a couple of mins before Vrancic equalized) Pressure can do funny things.... Evidently so, but apparently not to Leeds! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nutty nigel 7,527 Posted April 23, 2019 Another fraught night? If you can't enjoy this season then there's no hope. Two games left and like the previous 44 I have no idea how they will pan out. Can't wait though🙃 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted April 23, 2019 Being serious it’s a really good position for us now because we only need to escape defeat in one game to guarantee promotion- or have Leeds fail to win one of their two remaining games. Either will do. given Leeds have lost their last 2 and we’re unbeaten in 12 you can understand why punters view that as a pretty long odds bet. But stranger things have happened - like when it was discovered Elvis is still alive. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,748 Posted April 23, 2019 ...a funny 24 hrs.....this time yesterday, I was driving home from Stoke having pulled into a Nottingham service station to listen to the last 20 mins of Brentford v Leeds, pretty much celebrating promotion..... now I've whipped myself up into a panic and envisioning how we can balls it up from here Saturday night needs to get here quick... 1 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JF 694 Posted April 23, 2019 1 minute ago, nutty nigel said: Another fraught night? If you can't enjoy this season then there's no hope. Two games left and like the previous 44 I have no idea how they will pan out. Can't wait though🙃 Can’t imagine we will see a season like this one for years, if ever. As I’ve said before, the best part of being in the PL is the season that you’re promoted. We’re up, enjoy it Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ian 1,129 Posted April 23, 2019 Incredible how when the pressure is on, even the most simple of targets (like getting a point, or Leeds dropping a single point) can seem really difficult to achieve. Let's hope the boys have got over the end-of-season jitters and put on the best first half of the season on Saturday to ease everybody's nerves! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,748 Posted April 23, 2019 3 minutes ago, nutty nigel said: Another fraught night? If you can't enjoy this season then there's no hope. Two games left and like the previous 44 I have no idea how they will pan out. Can't wait though🙃 If I were to hedge my bets as to whether Saturday will be more akin to QPR at home or Reading/Sheff Weds at home....i'd be going with the latter Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nutty nigel 7,527 Posted April 23, 2019 5 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said: If I were to hedge my bets as to whether Saturday will be more akin to QPR at home or Reading/Sheff Weds at home....i'd be going with the latter Did you forecast any of them? If so why do you hide your light under a bushel and avoid Rays Funds?🙃 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
It's Character Forming 1,160 Posted April 23, 2019 12 minutes ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said: If I were to hedge my bets as to whether Saturday will be more akin to QPR at home or Reading/Sheff Weds at home....i'd be going with the latter Although to be fair any of those results will be enough !!! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JF 694 Posted April 23, 2019 It’s ironic really. For the last four matches we’ve needed to win but drawn each game which was seen as bad results. Now all we need to do is draw one game but after drawing four on the bounce apparently we might not be able to pull a draw out of the bag! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,748 Posted April 23, 2019 2 minutes ago, JF said: It’s ironic really. For the last four matches we’ve needed to win but drawn each game which was seen as bad results. Now all we need to do is draw one game but after drawing four on the bounce apparently we might not be able to pull a draw out of the bag! Thats the danger....how to approach it?. Go all out for the win or make sure we dont lose, with the danger of falling in between 2 stools and doing neither? If we're drawing with 5-10 mins to go ,are we throwing men forward looking for the win when we know a draw will do and risk being caught on the break?? ..ps..still think we should have 2 keepers on the bench to combat any 'force majuere' that might rear its head... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Coneys Knee 952 Posted April 23, 2019 Nobody has said that though JF! Have they! With respect, you seem to either be missing the point or you’re choosing to be facetious. of course we’re capable of getting the results we need. In all probability we will, but people’s concerns are simply due to the fact that the goal difference swing is NOT impossible. Improbable yes, impossible no. So until it is impossible some of us will wet our pants ever so slightly. A little dribble if you will. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,748 Posted April 23, 2019 4 minutes ago, Coneys Knee said: Nobody has said that though JF! Have they! With respect, you seem to either be missing the point or you’re choosing to be facetious. of course we’re capable of getting the results we need. In all probability we will, but people’s concerns are simply due to the fact that the goal difference swing is NOT impossible. Improbable yes, impossible no. So until it is impossible some of us will wet our pants ever so slightly. A little dribble if you will. Quite....if 4 results were to go the wrong way a swing of 11 goals isnt too far off what you'd expect it to be....even a conservative two goal margin in each game takes it to 8.....and thats before you then take into account the Ipswich/apalling team/Lambert factor Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
