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The Positive Brexit Thread

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49 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

The argument to realign with the single market is itself ideological. In this argument, there is no actual discussion of the practicalities of doing so, and what we might expect from the EU if we were to request it; it's simply saying in a roundabout sort of way that we should never have left the EU, so lets move back to EU membership in as many ways as possible without saying that's what we're doing. As I've said repeatedly now, CPTPP membership rules out membership of the single market and the customs union.

It's way too soon for that in my view. Being tied to the single market without being members is a recipe for interests to be sidelined without recourse in the long term. It's better to pursue options outside the EU and look to recover position by other means and revisit with the EU when things are calmer and we're not in such a weak position; I strongly suspect that if the Conservatives are replaced then their replacements will end up taking the same view. 

We and the EU are already adapting to develop a positive relationship post-Brexit, as evidenced by the new European forum aimed at including non-EU members. Things just have to run their course.

The reality is nobody in the real exporting (paying our way in the world) world thinks the CPTTP is anything other than a poor sideshow and of little benefit (nearly all counties within the CPTTP we already have deals with) as compared the the SM. Of course if China joins that may change - as you know they've applied. Frankly it's why in all the articles such as in the FT, CPTTP membership is not seen as any great reason or constraint on not rejoining the SM. Indeed many argue that the EU is needed within the CPTTP to give the CPTTP a major economic block as an anchor to make it a success! CPTTP membership for the UK is really just a political fig-leaf over our embarrassment of Brexit - trying to invent some 'positives'.

Of course as with all things i.e. Truss's mini-budget  - U turns are possible as the facts dictate - and facts are now dictating!

Of course there may be issues in realigning  / rejoining the SM - we will certainly have given up our leadership of it (no different to CPTTP in that regard). 

This article written by a Brexiteer as above is interesting vs his comments on the SM (don't think he net mentions CPTTP at all)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/31/brexit-revolution-has-come-end/  

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48 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The reality is nobody in the real exporting (paying our way in the world) world thinks the CPTTP is anything other than a poor sideshow and of little benefit (nearly all counties within the CPTTP we already have deals with) as compared the the SM. Of course if China joins that may change - as you know they've applied. Frankly it's why in all the articles such as in the FT, CPTTP membership is not seen as any great reason or constraint on not rejoining the SM. Indeed many argue that the EU is needed within the CPTTP to give the CPTTP a major economic block as an anchor to make it a success! CPTTP membership for the UK is really just a political fig-leaf over our embarrassment of Brexit - trying to invent some 'positives'.

Of course as with all things i.e. Truss's mini-budget  - U turns are possible as the facts dictate - and facts are now dictating!

Of course there may be issues in realigning  / rejoining the SM - we will certainly have given up our leadership of it (no different to CPTTP in that regard). 

This article written by a Brexiteer as above is interesting vs his comments on the SM (don't think he net mentions CPTTP at all)

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/31/brexit-revolution-has-come-end/  

It's fair enough if people are skeptical in the short term, but ultimately the reason that Canada, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, and all the others still pressed on with it in spite of Trump pulling the US out is because they all believed it would yield a long-term strategic economic benefit in pursuing it. Ultimately, skeptical or not, we will be joining, because it's no longer just about us, but also the commitment we're making to the other nations. Much store is put in whether we're becoming 'international pariahs' etc; an about turn now would only add to the estimation of the UK as being politically unpredictable and the economic risks that entails for potential investors. 

The point about alignment between the EU and CPTPP is bang on, which is why holding the course and looking to encourage that outcome is the best way forward.  

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Here's the pertinent part from Tim Stanley, leader writer of the Torygraph trying to argue some positives for B as change of state of mind. 

I've extracted it as its behind a paywall. He rather makes my long term point - that without having the same low direct tax, low benefit, poor safety net sink or swim as per the USA then we'll have to reintegrate with Europe. Truss's failure was actually the failure of this Brexit / ERG dream and the return of realities.

"At some point, a Labour government, or a Tory one, may well put us back in the Single Market, for if we are not willing to reform tax and trade on the lines Citizen Truss wanted, then we’ll wind up a stagnating economy trapped behind a tariff wall. And how else do we resolve Northern Ireland?"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/31/brexit-revolution-has-come-end/ 

No mention of CPTTP at all.

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The CPTTP has emerged over the years and maybe because of the US tendency to change its stance and outlook on the Pacific rim.

For instance ANZUS was a military pact from the 50s involving OZ, NZ and the US. But then NZ became a nuclear free zone and will not accept nuclear powered warships in its harbours. And NZ has some great waters for hiding submarines. Australia has no qualms about nuclear so stayed in the agreement and of course the UK has now replaced NZ.

Its quite clear that depending on hawks or doves on Pennsylvania Avenue, the US alters its attitude on trade as well based on other nations attitudes to its military and foreign policy. For instance, the US moving its embassy in Israel to Jerusalem. 

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On 02/11/2022 at 05:00, littleyellowbirdie said:

The point about alignment between the EU and CPTPP is bang on, which is why holding the course and looking to encourage that outcome is the best way forward.  

The CPTPP is a defensive economic alliance against China, so they are hardly likely to invite China to join them. The UK putting itself outside the two largest trading blocks in the world  - the EU explicitly, and the US implicitly, has to be the biggest strategic error in modern economic history. 

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9 hours ago, Surfer said:

The CPTPP is a defensive economic alliance against China, so they are hardly likely to invite China to join them. The UK putting itself outside the two largest trading blocks in the world  - the EU explicitly, and the US implicitly, has to be the biggest strategic error in modern economic history. 

Yes; shouldn't have left the EU. Now we've got that out of the way...

TTP was the US' baby as a vehicle for countering China's influence; Trump sabotaged US membership, and it's not politically timely for the US to look to join, but there's a strong US interest in the success of the body even without the US as a member, and the US will take an attitude to UK membership of CPTPP similar to the attitude the US had to UK membership in the EU, acting as a bridge for its interests. 

More widely, the EU has been tilting much more towards Asia of recent years, and will no doubt be no less wary of China's increasing assertiveness against Western interests, so I wouldn't write off the possibility of something happening between the EU and CPTTP, especially, if CPTTP can be mobilised as a vehicle to strengthen relationships in Africa, which have been highlighted as an issue on the back of the votes regarding Russia's invasion of Ukraine. 

So overall, this is why aborting CPTPP accession, which is well advanced now, in favour of simply signing up unilaterally to single market membership (completely ignoring what the EU might demand to permit it)  would be very silly strategically in terms of the UK's long-term political influence, since it would leave the UK with no influence anywhere, whereas it will have influence in CPTPP. 

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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On 02/11/2022 at 15:01, Yellow Fever said:

Here's the pertinent part from Tim Stanley, leader writer of the Torygraph trying to argue some positives for B as change of state of mind. 

I've extracted it as its behind a paywall. He rather makes my long term point - that without having the same low direct tax, low benefit, poor safety net sink or swim as per the USA then we'll have to reintegrate with Europe. Truss's failure was actually the failure of this Brexit / ERG dream and the return of realities.

"At some point, a Labour government, or a Tory one, may well put us back in the Single Market, for if we are not willing to reform tax and trade on the lines Citizen Truss wanted, then we’ll wind up a stagnating economy trapped behind a tariff wall. And how else do we resolve Northern Ireland?"

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/10/31/brexit-revolution-has-come-end/ 

No mention of CPTTP at all.

If anyone wants to put us back in the single market, then they should be very invested in ensuring we never join CPTPP in the first place. And yet, as you've pointed out, there's very little talk about CPTPP either from government or opposition, in spite ofthe advanced state of CPTPP accession. From that, I think it's safe to say that seeking single market membership any time in the next decade is not a serious agenda either in government or opposition, just a hobby horse of some unimaginative journalists. 

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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10 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

If anyone wants to put us back in the single market, then they should be very invested in ensuring we never join CPTPP in the first place. And yet, as you've pointed out, there's very little talk about CPTPP either from government or opposition, in spite ofthe advanced state of CPTPP accession. From that, I think it's safe to say that seeking single market membership any time in the next decade is not a serious agenda either in government or opposition, just a hobby horse of some unimaginative journalists. 

The point is that just nobody thinks the CPTTP is of much benefit to the UK beyond some political fig-leaf. It's of no consequence or concern if we join or leave - and certainly doesn't factor in any of the reasoning of rejoining/realigning with the the SM or CU anyway.

As to the journalist above - He's the Telegraph leader writer - well known and recognized. Just telling it as it is - trying to fish some positives out of Brexit following the rebuttal of the Truss / ERG plan (low tax, reduce the welfare state etc). Game over.

Lastly - I see the most recent poll is 57 / 43 (a 14 point lead) to fully REJOIN the EU. Nobody is formally saying that yet but clearly the direction of travel is obvious to a greater alignment / engagement. 60 / 40 and the question goes live.

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11 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The point is that just nobody thinks the CPTTP is of much benefit to the UK beyond some political fig-leaf. It's of no consequence or concern if we join or leave - and certainly doesn't factor in any of the reasoning of rejoining/realigning with the the SM or CU anyway.

As to the journalist above - He's the Telegraph leader writer - well known and recognized. Just telling it as it is - trying to fish some positives out of Brexit following the rebuttal of the Truss / ERG plan (low tax, reduce the welfare state etc). Game over.

Lastly - I see the most recent poll is 57 / 43 (a 14 point lead) to fully REJOIN the EU. Nobody is formally saying that yet but clearly the direction of travel is obvious to a greater alignment / engagement. 60 / 40 and the question goes live.

Respectfully, this is wrong. The requirements of CPTPP membership make membership of both the single market and customs union impossible in any way where it will impact export processes to the EU as CPTPP members.

In which case, if CPTPP membership really is purely a fig-leaf, then it begs the question why opposition is not opposing our imminent accession with any energy on account of the barrier it will represent regarding making a bilateral agreement with the EU acceptable to its own rules. My conclusion is that they also believe alignment between CPTPP and the EU is the way forward. 

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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11 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Respectfully, this is wrong. The requirements of CPTPP membership make membership of both the single market and customs union impossible in any way where it will impact export processes to the EU as CPTPP members.

In which case, if CPTPP membership really is purely a fig-leaf, then it begs the question why opposition is not opposing our imminent accession with any energy on account of the barrier it will represent regarding making a bilateral agreement with the EU acceptable to its own rules. 

If we decide it is in our interests to rejoin the CU or SM then we will almost certainly leave the CPTTP if there was no other option (my guess is that the CPTTP would bend). That's the point I'm making. Being in the CPTTP is simply small beer and dispensable as compared to the much larger SM / CU.

It simply a non-issue and not a constraint.

Its a bit like arguing about a plant in the garden that you may have to leave behind when you decide to move home.

Edited by Yellow Fever
spelling

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

If we decide it is in our interests to rejoin the CU or SM then we will almost certainly leave the CPTTP if there was no other option (my guess is that the CPTTP would bend). That's the point I'm making. Being in the CPTTP is simply small beer and dispensable as compared to the much larger SM / CU.

It simply a non-issue and not a constraint.

Its a bit like arguing about a plant in the garden that you may have to leave behind when you decide to move home.

The CPTPP is a legal treaty in international law. It's the largest and most ambitious multilateral trade treaty in the world outside of the EU.

What you describe as bending to allow the UK to remain a CPTPP member and to rejoin the single market and/or customs union would mean all CPTPP members changing all of the groups rules that conflict with EU rules to suit the EU without any gain for them. It's not plausible that they would do that. 

It's really surprising to hear you making arguments for behaviour regarding CPTPP that you've claimed have made us 'international pariahs' in the context of the EU. I'm at a loss why you think this behaviour would not have negative consequences for the UK in terms of confidence in its political stability and predictability. 

I'm sure you're fully aware that CPTPP accession does have real legal implications for trade governance within the UK. To pretend it can just be left again at a drop of a hat with no real world consequences is exactly the naivety that Brexiteers displayed regarding the EU. Two wrongs do not make a right. 

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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39 minutes ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

The CPTPP is a legal treaty in international law. It's the largest and most ambitious multilateral trade treaty in the world outside of the EU.

It's really surprising to hear you making arguments for behaviour regarding CPTPP that you've claimed have made us 'international pariahs' in the context of the EU. I'm at a loss why you think this behaviour would not have negative consequences for the UK in terms of confidence in its political stability and predictability. 

I'm sure you're fully aware that CPTPP accession does have real legal implications for trade governance within the UK. To pretend it can just be left again at a drop of a hat with no real world consequences is exactly the naivety that Brexiteers displayed regarding the EU. Two wrongs do not make a right. 

Have you told the Brexiteers you're selling out their 'sovereignty' all over again then? Constraining  their 'freedoms'. 

It may be a treaty but it's far lighter than the SM / CU (isn't that a plus?) and yes we can of course leave it if we wish if it doesn't really work for us as seems quite likely - it's not as if for most exporters Thailand or Indonesia is next door and anyway we have existing treaties with nearly all, rolled over from the EU, or newer ones with Oz and NZ (which were negotiated by Truss's - her demonstrated clear lack of judgement alone should now lead to a re-questioning of all her agreements - the farmers are as you know hugely alarmed).

Champion the CPTTP all you like - I hope it works but please don't tell me or anybody else its significant as compared to the huge market next door. It isn't. The clue is in the name - Pacific (and oddly is why Australia didn't join the EU - European).

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7 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Have you told the Brexiteers you're selling out their 'sovereignty' all over again then? Constraining  their 'freedoms'. 

It may be a treaty but it's far lighter than the SM / CU (isn't that a plus?) and yes we can of course leave it if we wish if it doesn't really work for us as seems quite likely - it's not as if for most exporters Thailand or Indonesia is next door and anyway we have existing treaties with nearly all, rolled over from the EU, or newer ones with Oz and NZ (which were negotiated by Truss's - her demonstrated clear lack of judgement alone should now lead to a re-questioning of all her agreements - the farmers are as you know hugely alarmed).

Champion the CPTTP all you like - I hope it works but please don't tell me or anybody else its significant as compared to the huge market next door. It isn't. The clue is in the name - Pacific (and oddly is why Australia didn't join the EU - European).

I'm not selling anything. I'm just a bystander like most other people. I'm not really championing it either; I'm simply evaluating the implications of joining in a realistic sense, as opposed from the perspective of somebody still hung up on leaving the EU. You on the other hand are making arguments based on principles that totally contradict all of your past statements about respect for international law and treaty. 

But you are absolutely right that the EU and CPTPP both have things to gain from alignment at that level and that is where our energy should be employed as CPTPP members. 

Edited by littleyellowbirdie

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The Guardian writer Raphael Behr has come up with a pithy summation of Brexit:

To Brexit, to rage, to division and economic downgrade. A dozen years wasted. A crusade whipped up by nationalist zealots to a holy land that doesn’t exist to fight an enemy that was actually our friend, defeating no one but ourselves.

 

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Just been listening to an interview on R5 with some independent retailers.  One of their problems has been obtaining stock and in particular increased "delivery charges" ie. post-Brexit import duties, which inevitably leads to price rises.

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18 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

Just been listening to an interview on R5 with some independent retailers.  One of their problems has been obtaining stock and in particular increased "delivery charges" ie. post-Brexit import duties, which inevitably leads to price rises.

Lots of paperwork surrounds selling to European countries. I used to sell my paintings but now have stopped selling to EU countries. A bit too much hassle. There are ways round it but you need to consider your pricing structure. I was just a part time sole trader as such.

There are many stories of businesses  experiencing similar issues to the one you've highlighted Benchwarmer. It's the additional paperwork (of course digital) that adds a lot of time (companies exist to do it for you but you pay for it!) plus, it is also much more anxiety producing.

I expected that Brexit would affect me and others so I'm not surprised but it has been so disappointing nevertheless to watch it happen. 

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2 hours ago, sonyc said:

Lots of paperwork surrounds selling to European countries. I used to sell my paintings but now have stopped selling to EU countries. A bit too much hassle. There are ways round it but you need to consider your pricing structure. I was just a part time sole trader as such.

There are many stories of businesses  experiencing similar issues to the one you've highlighted Benchwarmer. It's the additional paperwork (of course digital) that adds a lot of time (companies exist to do it for you but you pay for it!) plus, it is also much more anxiety producing.

I expected that Brexit would affect me and others so I'm not surprised but it has been so disappointing nevertheless to watch it happen. 

A few months ago I ordered a rare CD from Italy.  It took 5 or 6 weeks to arrive and delivery charges cost more than the CD.

Even pro-Brexit business leaders are starting to complain about the government's total lack of a post-Brexit economic strategy.

Edited by benchwarmer

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5 hours ago, Pyro Pete said:

I'm just going to leave this here:

"Boris Johnson has said he will apologise on national television if Britain were to plunge into recession after a vote to leave the EU."

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/21/boris-johnson-will-make-tv-apology-if-brexit-triggers-recession

I wonder what odds the bookies would give me on this happening during my lifetime  (I'm 71 btw).

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33 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

I wonder what odds the bookies would give me on this happening during my lifetime  (I'm 71 btw).

Probably same odds as hell freezing over.

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21 hours ago, benchwarmer said:

A few months ago I ordered a rare CD from Italy.  It took 5 or 6 weeks to arrive and delivery charges cost more than the CD.

Even pro-Brexit business leaders are starting to complain about the government's total lack of a post-Brexit economic strategy.

You may have seen this short film on what should have been warned about around the time of the vote. Your point (and mine) are of course covered.

 

 

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Brexit ‘to blame for austerity budget’, as London stock market overtaken by Paris – business live

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/nov/14/joules-administrators-cost-of-living-business-confidence-recession-rightmove-business-live

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
TVb1XgOL_normal.png
 
 
London has lost its rank as Europe’s biggest stock market to Paris. The gap between the two markets has been narrowing since the Brexit vote in 2016.  https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-14/london-loses-its-crown-of-biggest-european-stock-market-to-paris
 
 
Image
 
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39 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Brexit ‘to blame for austerity budget’, as London stock market overtaken by Paris – business live

https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2022/nov/14/joules-administrators-cost-of-living-business-confidence-recession-rightmove-business-live

 

 
 
 
 
 
 
TVb1XgOL_normal.png
 
 
London has lost its rank as Europe’s biggest stock market to Paris. The gap between the two markets has been narrowing since the Brexit vote in 2016.  https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-11-14/london-loses-its-crown-of-biggest-european-stock-market-to-paris
 
 
Image
 

I think the most striking about that graph to me is not so much that Paris has overtaken London as a result of Brexit but the massive size of the gap that existed between the two pre-Brexit, which has been closed over the last few years and is now starting to be reversed.

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2 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I think the most striking about that graph to me is not so much that Paris has overtaken London as a result of Brexit but the massive size of the gap that existed between the two pre-Brexit, which has been closed over the last few years and is now starting to be reversed.

I think the Brexiteers must be so proud - in their own terms losing to the French.

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