The Positive Brexit Thread

[Van wink 2,994]

13 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

already there have been a number of suggestions that some of the car producers in the UK currently on temporary shutdown will never re-open, for some very obvious reasons.

Which ones and suggested by who?

[BigFish 1,986]

24 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

Not too sure why I was dragged into this argument ?

Just as an example, @SwindonCanary

[Fen Canary 793]

23 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

Not too sure why I was dragged into this argument ?

Because according to people like that every person that voted Leave is exactly the same, all 17 million of us. A majority in around two thirds of constituencies are all the same person. From the mining towns up north to the Tory shires down south, we’re all ignorant racists who only voted Leave because Rupert Murdoch wanted us to. It makes them feel better that they didn’t lose the referendum because their views were in the minority, they lost because everybody else in the country was too stupid to vote the correct way 

[Fen Canary 793]

12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Which ones and suggested by who?

Austin are going to stop making the Princess because of Brexit, they’re moving production to Germany 

[BigFish 1,986]

3 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

Because according to people like that every person that voted Leave is exactly the same, all 17 million of us. A majority in around two thirds of constituencies are all the same person. From the mining towns up north to the Tory shires down south, we’re all ignorant racists who only voted Leave because Rupert Murdoch wanted us to. It makes them feel better that they didn’t lose the referendum because their views were in the minority, they lost because everybody else in the country was too stupid to vote the correct way 

If the cap fits @Fen Canary.......

[Herman 9,717]

9 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

Because according to people like that every person that voted Leave is exactly the same, all 17 million of us. A majority in around two thirds of constituencies are all the same person. From the mining towns up north to the Tory shires down south, we’re all ignorant racists who only voted Leave because Rupert Murdoch wanted us to. It makes them feel better that they didn’t lose the referendum because their views were in the minority, they lost because everybody else in the country was too stupid to vote the correct way 

Well said.🤣

[Herman 9,717]

Saved by those pesky Europeans from our government's "benign neglect"??

 

[Fen Canary 793]

12 minutes ago, BigFish said:

If the cap fits @Fen Canary.......

If that’s what you believe then fair enough, I’ve noticed you didn’t respond to my earlier post regarding the EUs response to the virus though. 

[BigFish 1,986]

12 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

I’d class myself as reasonably intelligent.... immigration has been used to suppress wages in certain industries, and I’ve made my opposition to the EU well known throughout this thread for the reasons I’ve stated.

Now that that’s all cleared up, would you mind responding to the points I made on the post, rather than a poorly attempted character assassination. 

Ok, let's give this another go. Perhaps if you had gone to University you would understand the golden rules of exams-RTFQ and ATFQ. The question asked was now we have left the EU what does the UK do now. The question you answer was why I don't like the EU. Even this you answered with a stack of misrepresentation, misunderstanding and plain untruths (e.g. the Commission is not the executive of the EU, the EU does not have an executive President, WTO rules are a feasible let alone desirable outcome, the FTA is about tariffs, the EU budget is economically significant, it has been free movement that has suppressed wages, Asian trade gained could replace European trade lost, the UK cannot trade with the rest of the world while an EU member etc). My post that you seemed to take so much offence to was a theory on why people in certain demographic groups continue to behave this way e.g. failure to engage with the future, failure to engage with the facts and rejection of expert opinion.

[Fen Canary 793]

1 minute ago, BigFish said:

Ok, let's give this another go. Perhaps if you had gone to University you would understand the golden rules of exams-RTFQ and ATFQ. The question asked was now we have left the EU what does the UK do now. The question you answer was why I don't like the EU. Even this you answered with a stack of misrepresentation, misunderstanding and plain untruths (e.g. the Commission is not the executive of the EU, the EU does not have an executive President, WTO rules are a feasible let alone desirable outcome, the FTA is about tariffs, the EU budget is economically significant, it has been free movement that has suppressed wages, Asian trade gained could replace European trade lost, the UK cannot trade with the rest of the world while an EU member etc). My post that you seemed to take so much offence to was a theory on why people in certain demographic groups continue to behave this way e.g. failure to engage with the future, failure to engage with the facts and rejection of expert opinion.

I’ve answered all those questions previously as to why I think we’re better off out than in, what with the EUs diminishing percentage of world trade etc, I’m not going through it all over again. My point is do you think the EU should be doing more to help it’s members during the current virus outbreak, or is it a job for nation states? If it’s up to the EU then do you believe their response has been adequate? If something this serious is none of the EUs concern why do they feel the need for a President, Parliament, Courts, Budget Laws etc? 

[BigFish 1,986]

On 20/03/2020 at 19:57, Fen Canary said:

This current crisis does highlight many peoples problems with the EU, in that what is it trying to be? If it’s merely nation states trading and cooperating on key issues,

why does it need a multi billion pound budget,

The budget is relatively small compared to both the combined size of the members' governmental budgets and the EU economy. A budget is required to manage a free trade area, the cost of which is in fact cheap when compared to the costs of trade the UK will face when we leave properly.

Parliament,

Democratic legitimacy

Commission

Someone has to do all those boring civil servantcy jobs if a trade bloc

and President,

It doesn't have a President, it has number of people fulfilling roles with the job title of President

why does it have it’s own courts

All trade deals have dsipute resolution mechanisms called courts

, rules

All trade deals have rules and

budget laws, as well as it’s own currency?

There are a number of members who are not in Euro, although if countries are members they must follow certain constraints to ensure it works successfuly

There’s no need for all that if it’s simply nation states, they could have something similar to the Asian TPPA agreement.

If however it’s much more than that, if it see’s itself as above nation states, able to threaten the Italian government over its proposed budget,

See above

the Polish over their judiciary,

One of the great achievements of the EU is ensuring that democracy spread through Europe, surely they should be applauded for continuing with this?

implement crippling austerity on the Greeks etc, then where is it during those countries times of need? Before the virus the way it largely dumped the migrant crisis on Italy and Greece was shameful,

I don't believe they did, no migrants came from the EU and Merkel got monstered by racist Brexiteers for taking Syrian refugess

now with Covid there is little in the way of practical help for Italy or Spain, in fact the EU Courts fined Italy during the middle of the crisis for using state aid to prop up tourism in Sardinia.

Did they, did they really or is this just made up?

The EUcant demand ever closer union then simply leave members to fend for themselves during a crisis 

Except they didn't did they? Where is was in their locus of control such as through the ECB there were dramatic multi-billion euro support initiatives. Where the locus was within the nation states it was for the nation states. You can't say you want only a free trade area and then complain when it isn't a superstate. Or rather you can for all the reasons I pointed out in my other post.

 

 

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

28 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

I’ve answered all those questions previously as to why I think we’re better off out than in, what with the EUs diminishing percentage of world trade etc, I’m not going through it all over again. My point is do you think the EU should be doing more to help it’s members during the current virus outbreak, or is it a job for nation states? If it’s up to the EU then do you believe their response has been adequate? If something this serious is none of the EUs concern why do they feel the need for a President, Parliament, Courts, Budget Laws etc? 

Yes indeed. You have made your supposed economic argument very clear:

'That isn’t a flaw, it’s a fact. There are now many more large markets outside the EU than there was 40 years ago, and as a consequence the EU’s share of the world GDP is shrinking considerably. Therefore I think being remained tied into an ever decreasing trading bloc seems to me to be the wrong decision. I believe striking trade deals with these emerging markets, ones more aligned to the UKs economy than EU wide ones, will be a more beneficial long term. Don’t forget also the UK is around 20% of the entire EU GDP, so these percentages will drop even further once we completely leave;' 

The snag is that the one question you, and all other Brexiters, have never answered is this:

If what the UK is heading for, losing its full, free and frictionless access to what is still the world's largest single market no matter how much you play around with percentages, and losing the benefits of dozens of trade deals around the world, and having to try to make up the vast deficit elsewhere, is such an economically great idea why is it the dystopian polar opposite of the utopian future promised by the Leave campaigns, in which we would keep all our single market access? Why has every survey, including those by the government, acknowledged that what you want to happen will result in a massive hit to GDP?

Edited March 22, 2020 by PurpleCanary

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

3 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Yes indeed. You have made your supposed economic argument very clear:

'That isn’t a flaw, it’s a fact. There are now many more large markets outside the EU than there was 40 years ago, and as a consequence the EU’s share of the world GDP is shrinking considerably. Therefore I think being remained tied into an ever decreasing trading bloc seems to me to be the wrong decision. I believe striking trade deals with these emerging markets, ones more aligned to the UKs economy than EU wide ones, will be a more beneficial long term. Don’t forget also the UK is around 20% of the entire EU GDP, so these percentages will drop even further once we completely leave;' 

The snag is that the one question you, and all other Brexiters, have never answered is this:

If what the UK is heading for, losing its full, free and frictionless access to what is still the world's largest single market no matter how much you play around with percentages, and losing the benefits of dozens of trade deals around the world, and having to try to make up the vast deficit elsewhere, is such an economically great idea why is it the dystopian polar opposite of the utopian future promised by the Leave campaigns, in which we would keep all our single market access? Why has every survey, including those by the government, acknowledged that what you want to happen will result in a massive hit to GDP?

It's called cutting your nose off to spite your face.

There never was and still isn't any economic argument for Brexit - in the early days of the referendum Brexiters were happy to 'stay in the SM' or CU or EFTA and then as that didn't tally with all the other unicorns cake and eat it or laterly May's' Close Relationship'.

The 'better deals' outside only got tagged on as sweetener / bribe / political lie for the gullible to try to disarm the obvious factually based economic arguments of the remain side  - and then mudied (or deliberately obfuscated) up with meaningless trade percentages. Twice zero is still zero. I'm sure Botswana can replace France or even Luxembourg as a trading partner etc. Sadly some still believe it well after it's damage and intent was done and past its sell by date.

A football analogy would be Liverpool deciding they can win more matches if they choose to forgo the EPL and Champions league but willingly became a League 1 or Chumps side - the Ipswich fantasy.

What is certain is that the 'virus' will sadly knock back further the development of these third world countries. 

[Fen Canary 793]

7 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Yes indeed. You have made your supposed economic argument very clear:

'That isn’t a flaw, it’s a fact. There are now many more large markets outside the EU than there was 40 years ago, and as a consequence the EU’s share of the world GDP is shrinking considerably. Therefore I think being remained tied into an ever decreasing trading bloc seems to me to be the wrong decision. I believe striking trade deals with these emerging markets, ones more aligned to the UKs economy than EU wide ones, will be a more beneficial long term. Don’t forget also the UK is around 20% of the entire EU GDP, so these percentages will drop even further once we completely leave;' 

The snag is that the one question you, and all other Brexiters, have never answered is this:

If what the UK is heading for, losing its full, free and frictionless access to what is still the world's largest single market no matter how much you play around with percentages, and losing the benefits of dozens of trade deals around the world, and having to try to make up the vast deficit elsewhere, is such an economically great idea why is it the dystopian polar opposite of the utopian future promised by the Leave campaigns, in which we would keep all our single market access? Why has every survey, including those by the government, acknowledged that what you want to happen will result in a massive hit to GDP?

Now we’re simply back into debating hypotheticals, trying to second guess the future, and to be honest I’m bored of going round in circles. I believe Britain will be better served in the future by being away from the EU, as I believe the EU isn’t the force it once was, and will only become more fractures and weaker as the years go by. I also believe it will be more beneficial to be able to strike trade deals with the many other countries that make up over 80% of the world economy, rather than having to do everything through the EU. At best I think we’ll be slightly better off, at worst I doubt we’ll be any worse off. However even if we were slightly worse off, it’s a price I’d be willing to pay in order to be able to control immigration and use state aid where necessary.

You think the opposite

[BigFish 1,986]

12 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

 At best I think we’ll be slightly better off, at worst I doubt we’ll be any worse off. However even if we were slightly worse off, it’s a price I’d be willing to pay in order to be able to control immigration.

A totally evidence free post rounded off with a dose of racism. Nothing I could post would prove my point better.

Edited March 22, 2020 by BigFish
typo

[Fen Canary 793]

8 hours ago, BigFish said:

 

You haven’t answered why they need a Parliament, or a budget the size that they do, simply for a trade area. The EU Commission is also much more powerful than a simple civil service but we’ll agree to differ on that. If it was simply trade all you’d need would be a disputes court in my opinion, but it’s not. Ever closer union has been part of the EU since it was created.

You’re also giving it far too much credit in regards to democracy in the Eastern Bloc. That had far more to do with the collapse of the Soviet Union and the people’s stand against it than anything the EU has done. You probably believe it bought peace to Europe when NATO has much more to do with it than the EU. 

[Fen Canary 793]

3 minutes ago, BigFish said:

A totally evidence free post rounded off with a dose of racism. Nothing I could post would prove my point better.

Nice cherry picking of what I said there. Tell me why is it racist to control who comes into the country?

Why do you support the current two tier system where there are no restrictions on the mainly white immigration from Europe while immigration from Africa or the Sub Continent is much more restricted. Why do you believe Europeans should have more right to reside here than people from the rest of the world? I think the current system is much more racist personally, the system I’d prefer would treat every application on merit rather than country of origin.

I think your dream of a new EU empire is simply a mask for your bigotry

[BigFish 1,986]

8 hours ago, BigFish said:

Ok, let's give this another go. Perhaps if you had gone to University you would understand the golden rules of exams-RTFQ and ATFQ. The question asked was now we have left the EU what does the UK do now. The question you answer was why I don't like the EU. Even this you answered with a stack of misrepresentation, misunderstanding and plain untruths (e.g. the Commission is not the executive of the EU, the EU does not have an executive President, WTO rules are a feasible let alone desirable outcome, the FTA is about tariffs, the EU budget is economically significant, it has been free movement that has suppressed wages, Asian trade gained could replace European trade lost, the UK cannot trade with the rest of the world while an EU member etc). My post that you seemed to take so much offence to was a theory on why people in certain demographic groups continue to behave this way e.g. failure to engage with the future, failure to engage with the facts and rejection of expert opinion.

ATFQ @Fen Canary

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

44 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

Now we’re simply back into debating hypotheticals, trying to second guess the future, and to be honest I’m bored of going round in circles. I believe Britain will be better served in the future by being away from the EU, as I believe the EU isn’t the force it once was, and will only become more fractures and weaker as the years go by. I also believe it will be more beneficial to be able to strike trade deals with the many other countries that make up over 80% of the world economy, rather than having to do everything through the EU. At best I think we’ll be slightly better off, at worst I doubt we’ll be any worse off. However even if we were slightly worse off, it’s a price I’d be willing to pay in order to be able to control immigration and use state aid where necessary.

You think the opposite

No. Every expert with any credibility, including those working for this government, thinks the opposite to you.

[Fen Canary 793]

2 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

No. Every expert with any credibility, including those working for this government, thinks the opposite to you.

Fortunately for me then a majority of people who voted in the referendum saw the EU in the same light as I do, and decided they’d rather be out than in, whatever the future entails. 

[Fen Canary 793]

32 minutes ago, BigFish said:

ATFQ @Fen Canary

A look back over my previous posts and you’ll see what I’ve said I’d like to see happen next. If you’re that worried about it scroll back a few pages and have a look, in fact you replied to the posts first time around, largely by implying that I’m stupid and racist but you replied none the less. I’m not going to simply keep copy and pasting it every time you ask the same questions worded in a slightly way.

You believe the EU is a wonderful organisation and we’ll be better off inside it, I don’t like it for the reasons I’ve stated and believe our future would be better served elsewhere. That’s really all there is to it.

[Herman 9,717]

Nobody believes the EU is a wonderful organisation and nobody on this thread or t'other ever said it was. It has faults but being a member far outweigh the negatives. Unfortuanely too many people were "persuaded" that it was hoding us back when in reality it moved us forward.

A shame really that we are now where we are but it's now up to you brexiters to prove us wrong. So far you are failing miserably in that respect.

[Fen Canary 793]

9 minutes ago, Herman said:

Nobody believes the EU is a wonderful organisation and nobody on this thread or t'other ever said it was. It has faults but being a member far outweigh the negatives. Unfortuanely too many people were "persuaded" that it was hoding us back when in reality it moved us forward.

A shame really that we are now where we are but it's now up to you brexiters to prove us wrong. So far you are failing miserably in that respect.

See I disagree, to me the negatives outweighs the positives.

As for proving you wrong, I can’t see how they can be failing at that yet as we’re still part of the EU, at least when it comes to laws and trade etc. Therefore anything you perceive to be downturns aren’t caused by Brexit just yet, they can still be attributed to the EU, or at least the last three years of uncertainty caused by Remain supporters trying to overturn the referendum. Brexit cannot be blamed until we’re actually out of the customs union 

[SwindonCanary 455]

Bitter and twisted remainers is all I see on here .

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

14 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

See I disagree, to me the negatives outweighs the positives.

As for proving you wrong, I can’t see how they can be failing at that yet as we’re still part of the EU, at least when it comes to laws and trade etc. Therefore anything you perceive to be downturns aren’t caused by Brexit just yet, they can still be attributed to the EU, or at least the last three years of uncertainty caused by Remain supporters trying to overturn the referendum. Brexit cannot be blamed until we’re actually out of the customs union 

Sorry Fen, but whatever your genuinely held beliefs you cannot be so naive or foolish enough to think that both most businesses and many individuals and families don't plan ahead, often years ahead.

The fact that we are still in the Customs Union is irrelevant to the huge number of businesses and individuals who have significantly or completely altered their plans for the future because they know that Brexit is going to happen - no sane person who knows that Brexit is going adversely affect their private life or their business is just going to sit still until it happens and then say 'b*gger what shall I do now', they are going to pre-empt or mitigate the effects of Brexit before it happens. There are plenty of examples across lots of industries but the car manufacturing disintegrating in the UK is one example that is already hurting us badly although in the longer term we should be much more concerned about the impact upon our wide ranging service sector which is a huge part of our economy and yet doesn't even feature in the trade deals this government is aiming for.

You've said a lot about your views on trate and trade deals, little of which I would agree with but the real gaping hole in your arguments is that the trade and trade deals you talk about are actually trade in goods only, nothing about services. Unfortunately our economy is around 80% of services and 20% production of goods.

The single market is not a perfect market for services but it is absolutely streets ahead of anything the trade in goods deals can offer which is one of the many reasons why many people and businesses have already taken action to preserve the advantages they currently enjory. We as individuals and as a country are already worse off (and not just financially) as a result of Brexit and when we leave the CU and SM the damage ramp up even further.

[Surfer 1,547]

8 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

Bitter and twisted remainers is all I see on here .

P*ssed off absolutely. Your Brexit fantasy of a glorious uplands is crashing down right in front of you, but we'll just muddle through it, stick it out, keep a stiff upper lip. Let the Government exploit the CoronaVirus emergency to pass draconian powers and watch the richest play the stock market to gain even more of a share of the spoils. But hey, we got out from under the cosh of the Frenchies and Germans eh? 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by Surfer

[BigFish 1,986]

45 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

As for proving you wrong, I can’t see how they can be failing at that yet as we’re still part of the EU, at least when it comes to laws and trade etc. Therefore anything you perceive to be downturns aren’t caused by Brexit just yet, they can still be attributed to the EU, or at least the last three years of uncertainty caused by Remain supporters trying to overturn the referendum. Brexit cannot be blamed until we’re actually out of the customs union 

 You "can't see how they can be failing at that yet (sic)" but then not everyone has their heads as far in the sand as you do. Companies are making plans now, investing or not on what they see the Brexit future holding. And they are voting with their feet, investment and the pound has slumped entirely down to the Brexit vote.

But now we have the Coronavirus, the economy is on its knees. Do you think we can have an EU trade deal in June, allowing time for ratification and leaving on the 31st December. This wasn't achievable in normal times but now both lead negotiators have the virus and talks have stopped. The briefings are it is now a question of when, not if, the transition is extended even though this will require the UK to pay more contributions. There is even talk this might be for five years

[Fen Canary 793]

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Sorry Fen, but whatever your genuinely held beliefs you cannot be so naive or foolish enough to think that both most businesses and many individuals and families don't plan ahead, often years ahead.

The fact that we are still in the Customs Union is irrelevant to the huge number of businesses and individuals who have significantly or completely altered their plans for the future because they know that Brexit is going to happen - no sane person who knows that Brexit is going adversely affect their private life or their business is just going to sit still until it happens and then say 'b*gger what shall I do now', they are going to pre-empt or mitigate the effects of Brexit before it happens. There are plenty of examples across lots of industries but the car manufacturing disintegrating in the UK is one example that is already hurting us badly although in the longer term we should be much more concerned about the impact upon our wide ranging service sector which is a huge part of our economy and yet doesn't even feature in the trade deals this government is aiming for.

You've said a lot about your views on trate and trade deals, little of which I would agree with but the real gaping hole in your arguments is that the trade and trade deals you talk about are actually trade in goods only, nothing about services. Unfortunately our economy is around 80% of services and 20% production of goods.

The single market is not a perfect market for services but it is absolutely streets ahead of anything the trade in goods deals can offer which is one of the many reasons why many people and businesses have already taken action to preserve the advantages they currently enjory. We as individuals and as a country are already worse off (and not just financially) as a result of Brexit and when we leave the CU and SM the damage ramp up even further.

How are we worse off since the Brexit vote may I ask? Before the virus outbreak unemployment was at record low levels, the FTSE at record highs and wage growth was the fastest it had been since the credit crunch. Our economy has been growing faster than the EUs as a whole, so if investors are spooked by Brexit they certainly don’t think the EU is a safe bet either.

As for the car industry, that’s been struggling for years, even while we were a full blown member. However I haven’t seen any mass layoffs in our factories because of the vote. I did notice however that the Japanese are investing heavily in their car plant in Sunderland. All these recessions, emergency budgets and mass redundancies we were promised simply never happened. I’m sure one day we’ll be in recession again, it’s how the economic cycles work unfortunately, then people like yourself will gleefully point to Brexit as a cause, conveniently forgetting the other dozen predictions of economic doom you got wrong. Even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day, so keep predicting recessions and you’ll eventually guess correctly 

[Hoola Han Solo 448]

 

2 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

Bitter and twisted remainers is all I see on here .

You’re the one still attacking and finding fault with the EU after Brexit. I thought you’d be happy but all I see is a miserable and bitter Little Englander 👍🏻

[PurpleCanary 5,554]

47 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

How are we worse off since the Brexit vote may I ask? Before the virus outbreak unemployment was at record low levels, the FTSE at record highs and wage growth was the fastest it had been since the credit crunch. Our economy has been growing faster than the EUs as a whole, so if investors are spooked by Brexit they certainly don’t think the EU is a safe bet either.

As for the car industry, that’s been struggling for years, even while we were a full blown member. However I haven’t seen any mass layoffs in our factories because of the vote. I did notice however that the Japanese are investing heavily in their car plant in Sunderland. All these recessions, emergency budgets and mass redundancies we were promised simply never happened. I’m sure one day we’ll be in recession again, it’s how the economic cycles work unfortunately, then people like yourself will gleefully point to Brexit as a cause, conveniently forgetting the other dozen predictions of economic doom you got wrong. Even a broken clock tells the correct time twice a day, so keep predicting recessions and you’ll eventually guess correctly 

A week or so back I provided the Brexit-related statistics showing - in an entirely predictable fashion, which actually was literally predicted - just how the UK has been worse off since the referendum, but am happy to do so again:

In the three years  from the referendum the number of UK jobs created by foreign investment fell by 19 per cent.

In the same three years foreign capital investment in greenfield projects fell by 30 per cent from $120bn to $83.5bn.

In the  same three years about one in five overseas investors either cancelled or put on hold potential projects.

This analysis, based on government and other official and trade figures, is from the FT.

.