The Positive Brexit Thread

[Herman 9,717]

7 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

How can the UK have limited immigration from within the EU without breaking EU freedom of movement laws? Yes Blair could have placed temporary restrictions when the Eastern European bloc countries joined, but that’s long since finished. EU nationals have the right to live and work in whichever EU country they choose, I know this because many Remain voters have used it as an example of something we’re losing by leaving the EU. 

Immigration from outside the EU is a different subject altogether, as it can be and is controlled. Immigrants need certain skills and earn over a certain salary to be granted a visa to live here. Whether we think the number of visas the government dishes out to Non EU nationals is too high or low is another discussion 

Like Belgium and other countries have, there are certain caveats. You are free to move but you have to prove or get a residence permit if you are staying over 90 days. No job, burden, you could be asked to leave. Quite simple. The UK government never did or attempted to do this.

Immigration outside the EU is not a different matter. It can be controlled, it isn't.

We've spent too long blaming everyone else for this when it is a domestic problem. Instead of asking our government why they haven't sorted it you blamed the EU.

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

55 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

You do seem to have cherry picked the industries that clash with ours, which you’re right certain sectors will have competition with new markets. However I’d argue many do already, farming in particular has to battle with the powerful French agricultural sector which is disproportionately helped by the CAP. NZ and Aus also have great wines, which currently have tariffs slapped on them to protect European vineyards. The way I see it all trade deals have pros and cons, and it’s the governments job to weigh up whether the positives outweigh the negatives. 

In regards to immigration I don’t see how it’s xenophobic to want to control who enters the country, and in what numbers. The reason it it predominantly working class areas that are most anti free movement laws is because they’re the ones who have been most adversely affected by them. They’ve seen their wages stagnate, and faced extra competition for jobs and public services, and have always been told there was nothing our elected politicians could do to stop it. When they finally had a chance to make MPs accountable to them they voted for it in large numbers 

No point arguing this.

In my industry what you've 'bought' is what we call 'Vapour Wear' (Vapor in the Yank's terms) as opposed to a proven existing product that will fulfill all expectations and is fit for the job.

As usual with all 'Vapour Wear' it doesn't really exist (always promised down the line) and when it does eventually turn-up is a pale imitation of what was promised and never meets, nor will ever meet, what was promised. 

[Herman 9,717]

20 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

Again, so he was able to avoid the worst of his predictions by simply doing what he is paid to do. Yes he had to change tactics slightly to what he would have done if we had Remained, but that’s why he’s paid millions of pounds a year. The markets are always spooked by change, as we see every time there’s an uncertain outcome with elections, but apart from the pound losing some value, which while bad for yourself would have been good for exporters, Carneys predictions of economic collapse failed to happen

You are downplaying what actually happened. The pound lost heavily against the dollar and Euro. The worst for decades.

[BigFish 1,986]

14 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

Finally trade isn’t a zero sum game

Very true, for example any trade deal we get with the EU, or indeed the No Deal outcome, will make both sides worse off.

Genius, good work Johnson.

 

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

14 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Yes. Of all the Brexit ‘arguments’ the trade one is the most absurd. The UK is giving up its full, free and frictionless access to the world’s largest single market which happens to be as close geographically as it could be when it is an accepted fact that not only trade in goods but even trade in services is easier and therefore more profitable the physically closer the traders are.

Plus access to about 70 trade deals around the world, including the largest in history, with Japan, and with emerging market countries.

it is no coincidence that during the referendum campaign Brexiters were extolling the single market and saying it would be crazy to cut the UK off from it. It was only once it dawned on them that the EU was not going to cave in and allow continued access without accepting freedom of movement, and once the fundamentalist crazies had taken over the Tory party that crashing out without a deal and somehow trying to make up for that by doing a trade deal with Paraguay or Botswana was claimed to be the panacea they had argued for all along.

 

 

 

A wonderful argument for being in a Common Market. Unfortunately it morphed into a European Union and thus we had to leave

[Rock The Boat 1,325]

4 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

No point arguing this.

In my industry what you've 'bought' is what we call 'Vapour Wear' (Vapor in the Yank's terms) as opposed to a proven existing product that will fulfill all expectations and is fit for the job.

As usual with all 'Vapour Wear' it doesn't really exist (always promised down the line) and when it does eventually turn-up is a pale imitation of what was promised and never meets, nor will ever meet, what was promised. 

Are you sure it isn't called Vapourware?

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

22 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

Are you sure it isn't called Vapourware?

Yes. A typo

 Still vapourware though 

[Hoola Han Solo 448]

On 12/03/2020 at 22:05, SwindonCanary said:

My we have been busy today my notifications are full of you remainers ! 

Get over it and start enjoying being out of the EU   👍

In what ways has your life improved following Brexit, Swindo?

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

10 hours ago, Herman said:

The thing is Fen, as we have found out over the last few years, immigration could have been controlled. It is mostly in part due to succesive government domestic policies that has allowed it to grow. Our membership of the EU had little to do with the numbers. Even now EU immigration numbers are falling off a cliff while non-EU numbers are growing rapidly. Our governments could have been honest and said we needed immigration to keep the ecenomy going but they took the easy option of blaming the EU.

......and in any case the idea that immigration has caused wages to stagnate is a total fantasy. The sole reason for working class wages (and indeed everyone else's wages bar the super rich) stagnating is ten years of totally failed Tory austerity economics.

Jobs, both unskilled and skilled, taken up by other EU citizens have been overwhelming in areas where we have had significant shortages and therefore their impact on our economy has been also been overwhelming positive.

As Herman says we are now seeing huge reductions in EU migrants which will also hit a variety of important sectors from agricultural workers at one end of the skill scale to the NHS and IT at the other. We will all be worse off as a result of this.

[Fen Canary 793]

9 hours ago, Herman said:

Like Belgium and other countries have, there are certain caveats. You are free to move but you have to prove or get a residence permit if you are staying over 90 days. No job, burden, you could be asked to leave. Quite simple. The UK government never did or attempted to do this.

Immigration outside the EU is not a different matter. It can be controlled, it isn't.

We've spent too long blaming everyone else for this when it is a domestic problem. Instead of asking our government why they haven't sorted it you blamed the EU.

If they have a job though and aren’t being a burden then you can’t remove them can you, therefore immigration is largely uncontrollable from within the EU. Very few immigrants come over and go straight onto the benefit, however they do create competition for jobs and public services, especially jobs in manufacturing (what little we have left) and construction. During the recession I worked on many large sites where the majority of workers were Eastern European, many of whom couldn’t speak English and who were all working for around minimum wage. There were many companies who would employ only Eastern Europeans because they could afford to work much more cheaply than UK tradesmen. Companies such as this, and there are many of them, are the reason for much of the anti immigration sentiment among the working classes.

As I’ve said immigration from outside the EU is a different matter entirely, the only rules regarding that are drawn up by the UK government, whether you think they’re too strong or weak has nothing to do with the EU

[Fen Canary 793]

10 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

No point arguing this.

In my industry what you've 'bought' is what we call 'Vapour Wear' (Vapor in the Yank's terms) as opposed to a proven existing product that will fulfill all expectations and is fit for the job.

As usual with all 'Vapour Wear' it doesn't really exist (always promised down the line) and when it does eventually turn-up is a pale imitation of what was promised and never meets, nor will ever meet, what was promised. 

Why is there no point in arguing? You’ve simply guessed what will happen in the future, which is what all of us are doing. You don’t believe the UK will be able to adjust it’s trade policy to move away from the EU if tariffs are to be applied, whereas I think it would be much better to diversify our trade and not put all our eggs in one basket. You also assume the EU will remain the same as it is now, whereas I believe it’s share of world GDP (a crude barometer I know) has been steadily decreasing for years and is only going to get smaller as more markets emerge, and I think the UK would be better placed to take advantage of this from outside. The EU also seems to be fractured politically, with Le Pen in France, the AfD in Germany, Vox in Spain, Salvini in Italy, terrorist paramilitaries in Ireland  etc all polling well on and even winning on anti establishment and sometimes openly racist platforms, so there’s no telling what it could look like within a generation 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Fen Canary

[Fen Canary 793]

36 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

......and in any case the idea that immigration has caused wages to stagnate is a total fantasy. The sole reason for working class wages (and indeed everyone else's wages bar the super rich) stagnating is ten years of totally failed Tory austerity economics.

Jobs, both unskilled and skilled, taken up by other EU citizens have been overwhelming in areas where we have had significant shortages and therefore their impact on our economy has been also been overwhelming positive.

As Herman says we are now seeing huge reductions in EU migrants which will also hit a variety of important sectors from agricultural workers at one end of the skill scale to the NHS and IT at the other. We will all be worse off as a result of this.

No offence but you clearly don’t work in the building trades or in factories/manufacturing etc. You’ll see that cheap labour has been imported into these sectors, while UK workers were being laid off in their thousands during the recession, and it has had the effect of suppressing wages, as you either had to work for minimum wage as the Eastern Europeans were happy to or you didn’t work at all

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,181]

23 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

No offence but you clearly don’t work in the building trades or in factories/manufacturing etc. You’ll see that cheap labour has been imported into these sectors, while UK workers were being laid off in their thousands during the recession, and it has had the effect of suppressing wages, as you either had to work for minimum wage as the Eastern Europeans were happy to or you didn’t work at all

The last company I worked for in the UK (primarily a ground works firm) paid much more than minimum wage to both it's local and immigrant labour 

 

[Fen Canary 793]

8 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

The last company I worked for in the UK (primarily a ground works firm) paid much more than minimum wage to both it's local and immigrant labour 

 

You worked for a reputable company then, unfortunately thousands didn’t have the morals your company did

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 hour ago, Fen Canary said:

No offence but you clearly don’t work in the building trades or in factories/manufacturing etc. You’ll see that cheap labour has been imported into these sectors, while UK workers were being laid off in their thousands during the recession, and it has had the effect of suppressing wages, as you either had to work for minimum wage as the Eastern Europeans were happy to or you didn’t work at all

I haven't worked in the building trade but I most certainly have worked alongside the building trade in the days when I was trying to build a renewable energy company (and doing quite well even in the recession until 2011) when we became another sector decimated by the Tories which sent virtually all those companies to the wall in 2012.

It may be that a lot of people were laid off in the immediate aftermath of the recession but my experience and memory of a couple of  years later was that there was a substantial shortage in certain trades (we employed plumbers and electricians as installers) and that was what sucked in EU immigrants in, just as a similar shortage sucked in doctors and nurses to the NHS and the same in IT where I have spent most of my working life - renewable energy was a temporary branching out which the Tories put an end to - its back to IT business as usual for me now 😀

Anyway your point about immigrants depressing wages would be more convincing if it was just the building trades and/or manufacturing where wages had stagnated but the sad reality is that all our wages have stagnated for 10 years which brings us back to the fact that the real cause was the total failure of the Tories economic policies.

Since we're doing personal reminisces, I returned to IT shortly before the renewable energy sector completely imploded and ran an IT Dept of 25-30 people doing a job that I like to think of as fairly skilled and senior in a company that was still turning a decent profit and were paying me a decent salary but in the 4 or 5 years I did the job there my salary increased by precisely zero.

 

Edited March 14, 2020 by Creative Midfielder

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

59 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

Why is there no point in arguing? You’ve simply guessed what will happen in the future, which is what all of us are doing. You don’t believe the UK will be able to adjust it’s trade policy to move away from the EU if tariffs are to be applied, whereas I think it would be much better to diversify our trade and not put all our eggs in one basket. You also assume the EU will remain the same as it is now, whereas I believe it’s share of world GDP (a crude barometer I know) has been steadily decreasing for years and is only going to get smaller as more markets emerge, and I think the UK would be better placed to take advantage of this from outside. The EU also seems to be fractured politically, with Le Pen in France, the AfD in Germany, Vox in Spain, Salvini in Italy, terrorist paramilitaries in Ireland  etc all polling well on and even winning on anti establishment and sometimes openly racist platforms, so there’s no telling what it could look like within a generation 

You've bought into a dream as opposed to any reality. Your comments on the decling share of the global GDP for all major mature industrialized countries due to the rise of China, India etc. (but who the EU among others are striving to a achieve a good FTA) is irrelevant. We will do extremely well to get back to the existing 100 odd EU trade deals with such countries (several of whom are already indicating lesser terms).

Dreams are always usually better than reality but your comments on I guess Sinn Fein in Ireland rather tells me that your are looking back not forward.

Yes the EU and indeed the UK will change in a decade. Be careful your dream doesn't turn into a nightmare.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 hour ago, Fen Canary said:

The EU also seems to be fractured politically, with Le Pen in France, the AfD in Germany, Vox in Spain, Salvini in Italy, terrorist paramilitaries in Ireland  etc all polling well on and even winning on anti establishment and sometimes openly racist platforms, so there’s no telling what it could look like within a generation 

Its certainly true that populist nationalism is on the rise across Europe and indeed elsewhere but nowhere has it been so successful as in the UK, and if we're talking about political fractures, again the most spectacular example of that is the UK itself - split right down the middle and on the verge of breaking up.

If you have been watching the EU closely then you will know that Le Pen and et al are still achieving respectable levels of votes but you will also know that having witnessed the shambles of Brexit not a single one of them is still advocating departure from the EU.

And I'm afraid, as Yellow Fever has already pointed out, if you think that Sein Fein polled well in Ireland as terrorist paramilitaries then you really are living in the past, quite a long way in the past actually.

Edited March 14, 2020 by Creative Midfielder

[Fen Canary 793]

59 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Its certainly true that populist nationalism is on the rise across Europe and indeed elsewhere but nowhere has it been so successful as in the UK, and if we're talking about political fractures, again the most spectacular example of that is the UK itself - split right down the middle and on the verge of breaking up.

If you have been watching the EU closely then you will know that Le Pen and et al are still achieving respectable levels of votes but you will also know that having witnessed the shambles of Brexit not a single one of them is still advocating departure from the EU.

And I'm afraid, as Yellow Fever has already pointed out, if you think that Sein Fein polled well in Ireland as terrorist paramilitaries then you really are living in the past, quite a long way in the past actually.

Britain has become divided over a single issue, but it hasn’t seen the rise of any hard left or right parties that we’re seeing in other EU countries such as the ones I’ve listed. Even after three years of parliamentary stagnation centrist parties still took over 90% of the vote. Also leaving the EU has always been a much more fringe position for continental Europe than it has been for the UK. Being an island nation, and arguably the events of Black Wednesday means EU scepticism has always been much stronger here than among other nations. 

Finally I make no apology for referring to Sinn Fein as paramilitaries, as they’re still under the guidance of the IRA army council, and have refused to condemn a number of recent murders in Dublin by the IRA of people who have upset them. Sinn Fein MPs were campaigning singing “ooh ah, up the ra”, and the bulk of their vote has come from those too young to remember the Troubles. 

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

5 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

Britain has become divided over a single issue, but it hasn’t seen the rise of any hard left or right parties that we’re seeing in other EU countries such as the ones I’ve listed. Even after three years of parliamentary stagnation centrist parties still took over 90% of the vote. Also leaving the EU has always been a much more fringe position for continental Europe than it has been for the UK. Being an island nation, and arguably the events of Black Wednesday means EU scepticism has always been much stronger here than among other nations. 

Finally I make no apology for referring to Sinn Fein as paramilitaries, as they’re still under the guidance of the IRA army council, and have refused to condemn a number of recent murders in Dublin by the IRA of people who have upset them. Sinn Fein MPs were campaigning singing “ooh ah, up the ra”, and the bulk of their vote has come from those too young to remember the Troubles. 

Well I'm too tired the argue at length but I'm afraid that if you don't consider the Tories and the Brexit Party to be hard right (and populist nationalist) then we must inhabit different planets.

As for the youngsters who voted for Sein Fein I think you'll find that they've been brought up to be very well aware of the the Troubles but are sick to the back teeth of the same old, same old backwards looking politics of the 'established' parties and voted for people that articulated plans and aspirations for the 21st century rather the 19th - and much the same could be said about the 57% of the UK voters that didn't vote for this Tory government!!!

[Fen Canary 793]

1 hour ago, Creative Midfielder said:

I haven't worked in the building trade but I most certainly have worked alongside the building trade in the days when I was trying to build a renewable energy company (and doing quite well even in the recession until 2011) when we became another sector decimated by the Tories which sent virtually all those companies to the wall in 2012.

It may be that a lot of people were laid off in the immediate aftermath of the recession but my experience and memory of a couple of  years later was that there was a substantial shortage in certain trades (we employed plumbers and electricians as installers) and that was what sucked in EU immigrants in, just as a similar shortage sucked in doctors and nurses to the NHS and the same in IT where I have spent most of my working life - renewable energy was a temporary branching out which the Tories put an end to - its back to IT business as usual for me now 😀

Anyway your point about immigrants depressing wages would be more convincing if it was just the building trades and/or manufacturing where wages had stagnated but the sad reality is that all our wages have stagnated for 10 years which brings us back to the fact that the real cause was the total failure of the Tories economic policies.

Since we're doing personal reminisces, I returned to IT shortly before the renewable energy sector completely imploded and ran an IT Dept of 25-30 people doing a job that I like to think of as fairly skilled and senior in a company that was still turning a decent profit and were paying me a decent salary but in the 4 or 5 years I did the job there my salary increased by precisely zero.

 

I never said it was the only thing suppressing wages, you’re right there was a number of factors at play which also caused wages to be stagnant, but immigration was definitely one of them, and the most visible one at that. You can’t import 3 million people without it having an effect on the jobs market, and definitely not in the favour of the workers. I also admit my experiences of the time would have hardened my views on immigration, when myself, and friend and family are struggling for work and being laid off, it does rankle when you turn up to a large site to find you’re the only one speaking English, and I’m guessing my experiences of the time were shared by many people. Anybody working on the Wembley rebuild or Olympics work would have said exactly the same, Multiplex especially were heavily recruiting in Warsaw but not in the UK for the works 

[Fen Canary 793]

2 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Well I'm too tired the argue at length but I'm afraid that if you don't consider the Tories and the Brexit Party to be hard right (and populist nationalist) then we must inhabit different planets.

As for the youngsters who voted for Sein Fein I think you'll find that they've been brought up to be very well aware of the the Troubles but are sick to the back teeth of the same old, same old backwards looking politics of the 'established' parties and voted for people that articulated plans and aspirations for the 21st century rather the 19th - and much the same could be said about the 57% of the UK voters that didn't vote for this Tory government!!!

You’re right, I don’t consider them to be hard right in the slightest. The BNP and National Front are hard right, the Tories at the minute are very much centrist, especially of Boris’ infrastructure spending comes to be a reality. I’d argue Labour are closer to the hard left, especially under Momentum, than the Tories are to the hard right but I have no great love for either party. 

It’s interesting though that you consider it fine for the Irish to vote Sinn Fein, and all the baggage that accompanies them, to stir up the status quo, yet are dead against Brexit happening when many voters would have ticked Leave for the same reason. Why should one vote be respected and the other not? 

[Herman 9,717]

Because one wasn't tainted with highly dubious electoral shenanigans and cheating. 

[Fen Canary 793]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

You've bought into a dream as opposed to any reality. Your comments on the decling share of the global GDP for all major mature industrialized countries due to the rise of China, India etc. (but who the EU among others are striving to a achieve a good FTA) is irrelevant. We will do extremely well to get back to the existing 100 odd EU trade deals with such countries (several of whom are already indicating lesser terms).

Dreams are always usually better than reality but your comments on I guess Sinn Fein in Ireland rather tells me that your are looking back not forward.

Yes the EU and indeed the UK will change in a decade. Be careful your dream doesn't turn into a nightmare.

The day Sinn Fein stops being under the guidance of the IRA army council is the day I’ll stop referring to them as anything other than the political wing of a paramilitary group. 

As regards to shrinking GDP, do you think it’s economically sensible to remain wedded to a bloc of nations whose share of the worlds wealth is decreasing, and neglecting those economies that a rising rapidly? The EU has around 70 trade deals with other countries, around 40 of which have already agreed to keep trading with the UK on the same terms once we’ve left. Long term I think it’s far better to be able to trade on our own terms with who we desire than be locked into ones for the EU as a whole. 

Maybe I have bought into a dream of those deals going more smoothly than they will, but you’ve also bought into the dream of an EU that exists as it is today, rather than an extremely fractured organisation I think it will become. Nobody has a crystal ball unfortunately, but if the referendum hadn’t been upheld the damage to democracy would have been much greater than a few tariffs on EU produce 

[Fen Canary 793]

6 minutes ago, Herman said:

Because one wasn't tainted with highly dubious electoral shenanigans and cheating. 

The targeted ad campaign of Cambridge Analytica wasn’t a new phenomenon, it had been widely used by the Obama presidential campaigns in the States. It also wasn’t secret as the CA representatives were regularly seen on the campaign trail during the referendum. If what they were doing wasn’t allowed why was it not commented on in the lead up to the vote? As I’ve said before, both sides were guilty of exaggerating their positions, however this happens in every election I’ve ever known. If you voided the result of every election because the MPs twisted the figures to suit their narrative we’d be voting every week 

[SwindonCanary 455]

8 hours ago, Hoola Han Solo said:

In what ways has your life improved following Brexit, Swindon?

The budget being a BIG one !

[Hoola Han Solo 448]

9 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

The budget being a BIG one !

Is that all you have to say? 🙄

No wonder everybody laughs at you on this thread 🙄

Edited March 15, 2020 by Hoola Han Solo

[Fen Canary 793]

33 minutes ago, Hoola Han Solo said:

I’d that all you have to say? 🙄

No wonder everybody laughs at you on this thread 🙄

What don’t you like about the budget Han? Which areas do you think are under/over funded, and where would you have directed the funds instead? 

I’m no great supporter of either party, economically I lean to the left, and culturally I lean to the right, so my vote constantly flips backwards and forwards, but if the government follows through with the budget they’ve proposed I don’t personally see much wrong with it

[Hoola Han Solo 448]

25 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

What don’t you like about the budget Han? Which areas do you think are under/over funded, and where would you have directed the funds instead? 

I’m no great supporter of either party, economically I lean to the left, and culturally I lean to the right, so my vote constantly flips backwards and forwards, but if the government follows through with the budget they’ve proposed I don’t personally see much wrong with it

The cutting of Entrepreneur’s Relief from £10m to £1m with immediate effect will have quite material tax effects on individuals looking to sell their businesses. Ridiculous decision.

[Herman 9,717]

How can they follow through with it? They have barely lifted taxes, they are embarking on something that will make it harder for us to trade with our biggest partner meaning less revenue. They are going to have to borrow enormous amounts, something Labour would and did get a good kicking from the right wing press about. How easy is it to scam the British people?

[Herman 9,717]

8 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

The targeted ad campaign of Cambridge Analytica wasn’t a new phenomenon, it had been widely used by the Obama presidential campaigns in the States. It also wasn’t secret as the CA representatives were regularly seen on the campaign trail during the referendum. If what they were doing wasn’t allowed why was it not commented on in the lead up to the vote? As I’ve said before, both sides were guilty of exaggerating their positions, however this happens in every election I’ve ever known. If you voided the result of every election because the MPs twisted the figures to suit their narrative we’d be voting every week 

It wasn't commented on because nobody knew about it until well after the referendum. Stop trying to rewrite history. Some of us followed it,