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The Positive Brexit Thread

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The electorate was worn out by the behaviour of the last parliament. BJ can do what he likes now. 

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I see the EU have announced her would be a meeting in June to see how the talks are going, probably to say they were slow and should be extended. Boris has again turned the tables the EU by putting forward on his trade talks that a progress must be made by the June meeting, or if not, we will be looking to go are separate ways !!  Well done Boris !

Edited by SwindonCanary

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3 hours ago, Van wink said:

Whether I like it or not is irrelevant,  If it goes well he will take credit, if it goes very badly he will be replaced and a line drawn to try and rescue the party, it’s the way it works as you know. There’s nothing new here.

We are saying the same thing then. Everything post this "get Brexit done" date of Jan 31 2020 is his to own (or try to disown) 

The following however is NOT what the UK electorate was promised. It was to leave the EU but not leave the Common Market. Increased trade barriers means only one thing for UK trade and UK jobs. 

 

So in June, it will decide “whether the UK’s attention should move away from negotiations and focus solely on continuing domestic preparations to exit the transition period in an orderly fashion.”

Failure to reach a new agreement with the EU — Britain’s largest trading partner — is likely to be hugely disruptive on both sides of the Channel.

In its own negotiating mandate, the EU said Britain must mirror its own standards if it wants to continue freely trading its goods with the bloc’s huge single market.

But London says this undermines the whole point of Brexit, and officials say they accept an increase in trade barriers as the price to pay for “taking back control.”

Edited by Surfer

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8 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

I see the EU have announced her would be a meeting in June to see how the talks are going, probably to say they were slow and should be extended. Boris has again turned the tables the EU by putting forward on his trade talks that a progress must be made by the June meeting, or if not, we will be looking to go are separate ways !!  Well done Boris !

And how did that work last time?? 

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8 hours ago, Surfer said:

We are saying the same thing then. Everything post this "get Brexit done" date of Jan 31 2020 is his to own (or try to disown) 

The following however is NOT what the UK electorate was promised. It was to leave the EU but not leave the Common Market. Increased trade barriers means only one thing for UK trade and UK jobs. 

 

So in June, it will decide “whether the UK’s attention should move away from negotiations and focus solely on continuing domestic preparations to exit the transition period in an orderly fashion.”

Failure to reach a new agreement with the EU — Britain’s largest trading partner — is likely to be hugely disruptive on both sides of the Channel.

In its own negotiating mandate, the EU said Britain must mirror its own standards if it wants to continue freely trading its goods with the bloc’s huge single market.

But London says this undermines the whole point of Brexit, and officials say they accept an increase in trade barriers as the price to pay for “taking back control.”

The way Downing Street is talking, you'd think Britain hadn't had any input into the EU's shared standards over the last 40 odd years. Which I doubt is true, and even if it were, I'd start with Farage's poor attendance and UKIP MEPs spending all their time at the bar.

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I wouldn't worry about it.

Super intelligent machines and google algorithms are going to mean that the entire fabric of society will change within the next 20 odd years and there are unlikely to be ni more than a few jobs that humans can do better than a machine.

If a computer can already compose like Bach, drive a car more safely and accurately than Nico Rosberg, have the accumulated knowledge of 10,000 GPs and be able to tell you more about yourself than even you know about yourself  then issues like delays at ports or tariffs on scallops wont seem like a big deal at all....

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Robots don't pay tax and they don't buy Adidas trainers. The super rich need to circle that square. 

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19 minutes ago, Herman said:

Robots don't pay tax and they don't buy Adidas trainers. The super rich need to circle that square. 

Robot Yeezees, Kanye will be ecstatic!

 

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28 minutes ago, Herman said:

. The super rich need to circle that square. 

Do they?  The super rich already  own the algorithms. 

With a hyper intelligent computer that can write a concerto in your honour, 3d print your own great pyramid, carry out 24 /7 healthchecks and tell you if you oxytocin levels prove your date is a good match I dont suppose you would really need care if no one is buying your  trainers.

Perhaps the super rich will keep some tax-paying, trainer-buying staff on for sentimental/status confirming value

 

You heard it here first.  Human endeavour rendered pointless by 2045.

 

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18 hours ago, Herman said:

Even after May and Cameron, he is still the worst Tory leader in living memory and reportedly thick as mince. Why are clowns like Duncan-Donut and Davis still being taken seriously?

Surely William Hague was worse?

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13 hours ago, Herman said:

Likely scenarios on what we have learned over the years:

They will walk us into a no deal. This will be done in league with their friends in the media by manipulating an easily duped electorate into believing it is all the fault of a beligerent EU. This is currently happening, but you aren't hearing the words "no deal", as this has been banned, so you will hear a lot of sounbites (WTO, Australia etc.) which mean exactly the same. There is also a slow drip feed of bad news so that if we do crash out a lot of the anger at the rubbish we are getting may have dissipated.

We will get the deal the EU sets out for us, but Johnson and his friends in the media will sell it to an easily duped electorate as a brilliant deal. Johnson tends to fold easily but he has great PR on his side. One day he may get found out.

All leaders get 'found out' eventually, unless they resign before they're pushed. It's the nature of the business they're in and like everybody else, Boris will have a shelf life and his time will come to an end. No surprises there.

I know you're the king of the throwaway lines, Herman. So I really shouldn't bite. But I don't see your comment 'Johnson tends to fold easily' as any way accurate. He's had some tough battles and he lost several of them in the early days of his Premiership, but that was not through his 'folding'. Remember, he resigned from the Cabinet over May's WA proposals during his 'Chuck Chequers' policy. He forced a GE upon parliament by daring the opposition to play 'chicken' against him. He demanded all his parliamentary candidates pledge to support his Brexit proposals as sacked half of his Cabinet to rid his senior Tories of Remainers. No easy folding there.

He has since faced down his own Chancellor and is now taking on the vested interests of the Civil Service and the Judiciary. That's not the actions of someone prepared to fold easily.

So when he stands up in Parliament and tells members that he is not going to accept the terms of the the EU negotiators - as one suspects May might have done - then you can look at his record to date and say that folding is highly unlikely.

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13 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

All leaders get 'found out' eventually, unless they resign before they're pushed. It's the nature of the business they're in and like everybody else, Boris will have a shelf life and his time will come to an end. No surprises there.

I know you're the king of the throwaway lines, Herman. So I really shouldn't bite. But I don't see your comment 'Johnson tends to fold easily' as any way accurate. He's had some tough battles and he lost several of them in the early days of his Premiership, but that was not through his 'folding'. Remember, he resigned from the Cabinet over May's WA proposals during his 'Chuck Chequers' policy. He forced a GE upon parliament by daring the opposition to play 'chicken' against him. He demanded all his parliamentary candidates pledge to support his Brexit proposals as sacked half of his Cabinet to rid his senior Tories of Remainers. No easy folding there.

He has since faced down his own Chancellor and is now taking on the vested interests of the Civil Service and the Judiciary. That's not the actions of someone prepared to fold easily.

So when he stands up in Parliament and tells members that he is not going to accept the terms of the the EU negotiators - as one suspects May might have done - then you can look at his record to date and say that folding is highly unlikely.

But that's exactly what he did - folded when put in a corner (the Benn act) - with the Irish backstop! Yes he's trying to squirm his way out now but he has to honour his international treaty or trash the UK's good reputation.

So Herman is right - history suggests he'll fold in all but name.

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He didn't face down the chancellor either. The chancellor told him to shove Cummings plans up his backside. That's why the reshuffle got overshadowed by his resignation. 

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A data point. Or analysis. Or projection. Describe it how you wish, make of it what you will.

Brexit is set to have cost the UK more than £200 billion in lost economic growth by the end of this year — a figure that almost eclipses the total amount the UK has paid toward the European Union budget over the past 47 years.

According to research by Bloomberg Economics, the cost of the UK's vote to leave has already reached £130 billion, with a further £70 billion likely to be added by the end of 2020.

The analysis, by the economist Dan Hanson, found that business uncertainty had caused the UK's economic growth to lag behind that of other G7 countries since the 2016 vote.

https://www.businessinsider.com/brexit-will-cost-uk-more-than-total-payments-to-eu-2020-1

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-01-10/-170-billion-and-counting-the-cost-of-brexit-for-the-u-k?utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_content=business&cmpid=socialflow-twitter-business

 

Edited by Surfer

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3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

But that's exactly what he did - folded when put in a corner (the Benn act) - with the Irish backstop! Yes he's trying to squirm his way out now but he has to honour his international treaty or trash the UK's good reputation.

So Herman is right - history suggests he'll fold in all but name.

As I pointed out, he suffered some loses at the beginning of his Premiership when votes in Parliament went against him. But suffering a defeat in Parliament is not the same as folding. The Benn Act main provisions were to seek an extension of our leaving until 31 January 2020, and to stop us from leaving without a deal. Now had he had meekly accepted the terms of the Benn Act then you would be able to make a case that Boris folded. But as you yourself say, he is trying to extricate himself from the consequences of the Act, in other words, holding out the possibility of us leaving without a deal - then that is exactly the opposite of folding. 

Which reminds me of yet another major incident where he did not fold. Farage offered to stand down candidates in many seats in exchange for a deal with the Brexit party whereby the Conservatives stood down in northern Labour seats to give Farage a free hit. What would you have done, stick or twist? Johnson decided to face down Farage and gave him absolutely zilch, and it was the Brexit party that crumbled - all because Boris didn't fold.

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6 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

You heard it here first.  Human endeavour rendered pointless by 2045.

 

Probably just as well really, the planet will be well on its way to being unhabitable by then - nature's way of letting us know we've become pointless!

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Actually I think the coronavirus (or if not that something similar) is and always has been nature's way of culling any population that gets too large - be that us, rabbits or deer.

17 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Probably just as well really, the planet will be well on its way to being unhabitable by then - nature's way of letting us know we've become pointless!

 

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If the plan is to chase out independently minded civil servants and replace them with shills, puppets and guido goons then yes, spot on. 

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27 minutes ago, Herman said:

If the plan is to chase out independently minded civil servants and replace them with shills, puppets and guido goons then yes, spot on. 

The stated plan is a major shake up of the Civil Service, many have tried but few have succeeded. I don’t know if this one will be successful but one thing is for sure, if the government is to succeed in their aim there will be a lot of senior civil servants who find themselves unable or unwilling to continue and this will be the first of many casualties. 
As for shills, I guess that’s open to interpretation, the Civil service should undoubtedly be apolitical but equally should not be a source of unnecessary inertia in terms of implementing the policy of the Government of the day. History is littered with examples of ministers whose plans have been thwarted by obstructive civil servants, their job is certainly to offer professional advice but the decisions on policy must be made by elected politicians and then implemented.

Having said all that, I am very concerned about the role of Cummings, once we start seeing political appointments to the senior civil service positions, Supreme Court etc we are heading towards totalitarianism, it’s a fine line which shouldn’t be crossed, but I suspect will be.

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Nothing to do with shaking up the civil service. Just a poor minister being found out and a principled civil servant who won't be bought off.

Employment tribunal will put Patel, Johnson and Dom right in the wringer. It won't look good at all.

Who will unelected Dom appoint next ?

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34 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Nothing to do with shaking up the civil service. Just a poor minister being found out and a principled civil servant who won't be bought off.

Employment tribunal will put Patel, Johnson and Dom right in the wringer. It won't look good at all.

Who will unelected Dom appoint next ?

Disagree, the working relationship has changed between ministers and Civil Servants and its context is reform.

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Disagree, the working relationship has changed between ministers and Civil Servants and its context is reform.

Nope

This is a straightforward if high profile constructive dismissal case. No more no less

 

 

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3 hours ago, Van wink said:

The stated plan is a major shake up of the Civil Service, many have tried but few have succeeded. I don’t know if this one will be successful but one thing is for sure, if the government is to succeed in their aim there will be a lot of senior civil servants who find themselves unable or unwilling to continue and this will be the first of many casualties. 
As for shills, I guess that’s open to interpretation, the Civil service should undoubtedly be apolitical but equally should not be a source of unnecessary inertia in terms of implementing the policy of the Government of the day. History is littered with examples of ministers whose plans have been thwarted by obstructive civil servants, their job is certainly to offer professional advice but the decisions on policy must be made by elected politicians and then implemented.

Having said all that, I am very concerned about the role of Cummings, once we start seeing political appointments to the senior civil service positions, Supreme Court etc we are heading towards totalitarianism, it’s a fine line which shouldn’t be crossed, but I suspect will be.

Two points. I cannot offhand think of any examples of the civil service thwarting ministerial plans. Only some cases where civil servants have pointed out serious flaws in such plans, or have simply been bureaucratically unable to get the work done, since prime ministers and ministers often proposed politically motivated ideas that are not exactly practical. So a few cast-iron examples would be illuminating.

Secondly, a government led by Boris Johnson is by definition going to undermine as many of the established democratic practices and safeguards as it can. 

 

 

 

 

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