Jump to content
Jools

The Positive Brexit Thread

Recommended Posts

1 minute ago, Capt. Pants said:

Have to say Boris is playing a blinder?

Deal or no deal?

 

You've missed the nuclear option - Revoke.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Have to say Boris is playing a blinder?

Deal or no deal?

 

Not likely, Junker caveated it saying, "We have a deal, so no need for prolongation". If come Saturday Parliament votes down that deal, the implication is that there then is a need for prolongation.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, Bill said:

Nope, that's wrong as by doing that or anything similar he would be breaking the law ie the 'Benn Act'

 

Benn act only requires that he ask for the extension.

It never compelled the EU to grant it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I think it's just EU pressure to get it sorted. What they don't want is HoP not to pass it and yet come to no conclusion on the way forward (a GE might not solve anything). So get off the pot and decide what you are going to do - No Deal, Boris Deal or a Deal with a Ref. The EU will not want to be blamed for forcing the UK into No-Deal (and if it is No-Deal or Boris's deal all the ERG will vote No-Deal - makes no sense does it! ). 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, Bill said:

Nope, that's wrong as by doing that or anything similar he would be breaking the law ie the 'Benn Act'

 

This is not about the law. Of course he will comply with the Benn act.

This is about behind the scenes political maneuvering. The EU want this deal to go through so they will do what they can to make it happen. If saying they will not grant an extension helps the deal pass then that is what they will do.

  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

I think the chances of someone vetoing have increased. After all, there is no more the EU can offer that would make a difference, and there is no guarantee an election would change the parliamentary arithmetic enough to make a very different kind of deal - the UK staying in a CU for example - feasible. If it came to it, between those three current options, a guess would be this deal. Between No-Deal and Revoke, Revoke.

VW:

“I think the chances of someone vetoing have increased”

So do I. This feels like the end of the road, one way or another. I suspect Macron May well have had an oeff.

======

Increased but not necessarily probable. If this deal gets voted down by MPs then today's events will have done nothing to change the default position, which is that sooner or later  the UK will leave the EU, even if an extension is granted, or even a whole string of them, unless MPs vote for an alternative, whether that is Revoking Article 50 or accepting a deal the EU has already agreed or one it is willing to agree to.

There could be a majority for Revoke (I think there would) with this set of MPs if that was set against solely No-Deal, but until now the anti-No-Deal vote has been split between those wanting to Remain and those wanting a deal, because that latter option has never been closed off.

Perhaps I underestimated😳 the chances of a veto, given what Juncker has just said! There is a possible get-out for him, if the deal gets voted down, but I must say I am surprised he has come out quite so bluntly, even though I knew the EU collectively was totally p#ssed off with the delay and MPs being unable to make up their minds.

But even if Juncker is envisaging that his choice of words leaves room for a get-out to allow another extension, that is no guarantee all 27 will be in favour. He cannot control that, and it doesn't take much to imagine some leaders quoting his words right back at him as a very good reason for vetoing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Junkers Remarks not that surprising. I've always seen the deal as pretty much Brexit in name only and if there's a risk of No deal then the EU will take this deal all day long. 

If this gets voted down and it's no deal Vs an extension of imagine he will change his tune.

Edit: I'm actually struggling to find where he has actually ruled out an extension as the BBC are reporting...?

Edited by ThorpeCanary

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, ThorpeCanary said:

Junkers Remarks not that surprising. I've always seen the deal as pretty much Brexit in name only and if there's a risk of No deal then the EU will take this deal all day long. 

If this gets voted down and it's no deal Vs an extension of imagine he will change his tune.

Edit: I'm actually struggling to find where he has actually ruled out an extension as the BBC are reporting...?

I think you hit the nail on the head when you say that the EU thinks this is the best deal they can get, and given that they don't want a recalcitrant UK hanging around the shop forever then they rule out an extension to put the onus on the UK to accept the deal. No member state will veto the deal, they fear the consequences

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, canarydan23 said:

I'm sure they've lost patience, but if they were presented with the option of an extension with a definitive endpoint, ie a second referendum on Johnson's deal, they would willingly agree to one, despite Junker's bluster.

Imagine it, the UK Parliament says "we've passed the deal but want it given public consent", and the EU saying, "No, we're not having that". Ironically, in that hypothetical situation, it would be the Remainers moaning about the EU imposing itself on the UK whilst the Brexiteers would be cheering.

Yes that’s a fair point Dan. Interesting to see whether there is a majority for a second referendum if the deal is voted down.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
54 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

Perhaps I underestimated😳 the chances of a veto, given what Juncker has just said! There is a possible get-out for him, if the deal gets voted down, but I must say I am surprised he has come out quite so bluntly, even though I knew the EU collectively was totally p#ssed off with the delay and MPs being unable to make up their minds.

But even if Juncker is envisaging that his choice of words leaves room for a get-out to allow another extension, that is no guarantee all 27 will be in favour. He cannot control that, and it doesn't take much to imagine some leaders quoting his words right back at him as a very good reason for vetoing.

Juncker will be leaving his post very shortly - he's just demob happy. And what he says is ultimately just his personal opinion - he has no power to tell the 27 member states what to do. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
40 minutes ago, ThorpeCanary said:

Junkers Remarks not that surprising. I've always seen the deal as pretty much Brexit in name only and if there's a risk of No deal then the EU will take this deal all day long. 

If this gets voted down and it's no deal Vs an extension of imagine he will change his tune.

Edit: I'm actually struggling to find where he has actually ruled out an extension as the BBC are reporting...?

He made the statement when asked by a journo...it was broadcast live on Sky news

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

BBC reporting Junker has said no extension if  the deal is turned down by Parliament THANK YOU 😀

27 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

I think you hit the nail on the head when you say that the EU thinks this is the best deal they can get, and given that they don't want a recalcitrant UK hanging around the shop forever then they rule out an extension to put the onus on the UK to accept the deal. No member state will veto the deal, they fear the consequences

 

27 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

I think you hit the nail on the head when you say that the EU thinks this is the best deal they can get, and given that they don't want a recalcitrant UK hanging around the shop forever then they rule out an extension to put the  have to on the UK to accept the deal. No member state will veto the deal, they fear the consequences

I

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

These statements are not just made without careful thought. Particularly something like this which will be like a grenade being chucked int he room. I don't think it can be seen as anything but a message to the HoC. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

BBC reporting Junker has said no extension if  the deal is turned down by Parliament THANK YOU 😀

 

I

This is the quote I'm looking for SwindonCanary. Best I've found so far is 

""We have a deal so why should we have a prolongation?"

What happens if it's voted down? Is it ruled back in then?

Edited by ThorpeCanary

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bill said:

Nope, that's wrong as by doing that or anything similar he would be breaking the law ie the 'Benn Act'

 

Benn Act is now an irrelevance if the EU does not want an extension. It means either a deal passes through the HoP or we leave with no deal on October 31. 

Junkers announcement really puts the cat among the pigeons. If ERG and DUP vote against the deal it needs Labour to support it to get through. 

Next few days should be fun

Edited by Rock The Boat
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yes that’s a fair point Dan. Interesting to see whether there is a majority for a second referendum if the deal is voted down.

They don't have the numbers for a second ref. Its not going to happen.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Thirsty Lizard said:

Juncker will be leaving his post very shortly - he's just demob happy. And what he says is ultimately just his personal opinion - he has no power to tell the 27 member states what to do. 

No, but if MPs vote down this deal and Juncker still says there should be no extension then I can pretty much guarantee some countries will agree and use their veto. Whereas if Juncker says there should be an extension some might still veto.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As in many things, people hear what they want to hear, and get distracted from the core issue. 

What matters is not what anyone has said, but how our sovereign Parliament votes, and they have already passed a motion to allow whatever is brought up for a vote by the government to be amended.

That said it’s fun to see the Torygraph going full bore in their breathless support for any Cummings spin he can push out re DUP etc.

Edited by Surfer
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, ricardo said:

They don't have the numbers for a second ref. Its not going to happen.

I’m inclined to agree but it will be tight

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Capt. Pants said:

Have to say Boris is playing a blinder?

Deal or no deal?

 

I'm not normally a biased sort of person but technically Johnson has been forced down this route by Parliament and the EU has barely compromised. 

I'll give him some credit. He is brilliant at polishing turds. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Surfer said:

As in many things, people hear what they want to hear, and get distracted from the core issue. 

What matters is not what anyone has said, but how our sovereign Parliament votes, and they have already passed a motion to allow whatever is brought up for a vote by the government to be amended.

That said it’s fun to see the Torygraph going full bore in their breathless support for any Cummings spin he can push out re DUP etc.

I agree  - you can discount Junkers comments unless Merkel or Macron say similar later - and as noted above all the ERG etc would be voting down Boris's deal to force a No-Deal. Its a nonsense and a gift so far to Farage!

I see the Scottish courts may yet rule the deal illegal anyway!

All said - I think to get passed it will need some Labour support and tagging on a 2nd ref is now or never so my guess that will happen. It gets nearly everybody off the hook.

 

Edited by Yellow Fever

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

All said - I think to get passed it will need some Labour support and tagging on a 2nd ref is now or never so my guess that will happen. It gets nearly everybody off the hook.

 

I think you will find you have guessed wrong.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I think you will find you have guessed wrong.

We shall see 🙂

Starmers js said Labour will make that argument Saturday....

 

 

 

Edited by Yellow Fever

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Brexwits whining about how much the EU costs us. Now they're championing Boris' deal which would cost £130 billion in growth over the next 15 years according to the government's own figures. Brilliant work. You couldn't make up how thick this lot are.

Theresa May's deal for comparitive purposes would have cost about £45billion in growth over the same period.

Be very surprised if this is voted through without a referendum being attached anyway.

Edited by kick it off
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
 @DaveClark_AFP
FollowFollow @DaveClark_AFP
More

In case there's anyone still arguing what Juncker said or meant or has authority to say or whatever, a EUCO source who was in the room said the leaders' "draft is silent about a extension, it's too soon. If it's voted down on Saturday we're in a different situation."

8:14 AM - 17 Oct 2019

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, kick it off said:
 @DaveClark_AFP
FollowFollow @DaveClark_AFP
More

In case there's anyone still arguing what Juncker said or meant or has authority to say or whatever, a EUCO source who was in the room said the leaders' "draft is silent about a extension, it's too soon. If it's voted down on Saturday we're in a different situation."

8:14 AM - 17 Oct 2019

Thanks.

Makes sense for him to dismiss an extension when he's going full throttle for a deal. We'll see what happens later.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Farage now coming out in support of an extension? I thought we'd seen it all. WTF? He has to stay relevant somehow I guess 😂

 

So an unelected, retiring bureaucrat says: No extension, take this new treaty or just leave.

He is overriding the Benn Act. The EU shows itself to be a thuggocracy - power without accountability.

Appalling people.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, kick it off said:

Brexwits whining about how much the EU costs us. Now they're championing Boris' deal which would cost £130 billion in growth over the next 15 years according to the government's own figures. Brilliant work. You couldn't make up how thick this lot are.

Theresa May's deal for comparitive purposes would have cost about £45billion in growth over the same period.

Be very surprised if this is voted through without a referendum being attached anyway.

Agreed. There is no good Brexit, but this is more economically damaging than May's, and that was bad enough. That said, there will be a general election soon, and it is possible that this Uber-Hard Brexit political declaration could get significantly softened by a Labour or anti-Tory coalition government. I am with Ricardo as far as a referendum is concerned. I doubt there are the votes for that, but Brexit has made fools of many predictions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...