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The Positive Brexit Thread

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More expert analysis from those on the front line showing what a disaster Brexit will visit, deal or no deal. I now await an inane response from SC (shouldn't that stand for "Stupid Cnut"? Although Cnut did realise that just saying something didn't make it happen)

 

What will happen to the UK after Brexit - deal or no deal? (msn.com)

"Amid all the Brexit fog, two things are certain – that leaving the EU will make the country poorer and that Boris Johnson will never, ever, admit that fact. 

 

Deal

With “neither the government nor businesses fully prepared” for leaving the single market and customs, says the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), GDP is expected to dip by around 1 per cent in the first quarter of 2021 alone.

That would be the taster for a permanent 4 per cent drop in productivity in the long run – perpetuating the British disease that lies behind the miserable economic performance of recent years.

The Treasury’s own analysis suggested the skinny ‘Canada-style’ deal the prime minister seeks would strip up to 6.7 per cent from expected GDP over 15 years, meaning £130bn of lost growth.

And remember the country is already significantly poorer because of shrivelled growth since the 2016 referendum – to the tune of about £600m for every week since the vote, one 2019 analysis found.

No deal

Last week’s OBR report warned that new tariffs and a likely plunging exchange rate will push up prices by 1.5 per cent by the middle of the decade.

Now, that doesn’t sound very much – but it masks potentially big hikes in the items that matter the most, especially to poorer people already hurting from the knock-on effects of the pandemic.

Crucially, when a no-deal loomed 18 months ago, the government said it would abolish tariffs on most food and drink imports, but the new UK Global Tariff (UKGT) is very different.

Average tariffs on EU food imports would be a whopping 20 per cent, it has been calculated – with similar increases in shelf prices very likely.

More costly tinned vegetables (up 6.8 per cent), baked beans (7.1 per cent), tinned fruit (8.75 per cent), dried pasta (22.6 per cent), tinned tomatoes (11.4 per cent) and evaporated milk (27.6 per cent) can all be expected, The Grocer  website calculated.

And, if sterling crashed by 15 per cent – as the Bank of England has predicted in the past – “price rises of 20 per cent across the board” can be expected.

GDP would face a further 2 per cent hit next year, delaying the economic bounceback from the pandemic by a further 12 months.

Then there is unemployment, already expected to be 2.6 million by next summer. The OBR verdict is that another 300,000 people would join the dole queues."

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2 hours ago, Herman said:

The new England bypass.

I wonder how much traffic this will take off the roads between Holyhead and the east coast ports? 

Also what will the knock-on affects be for jobs etc. If it becomes the best way for the transport companies will other ferry companies adopt the route?

I'll be contacting Chris Grayling to get his expert opinion.

 

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Chris Grayling inspects his latest Government purchase to make the UK's Royal Navy the best in Europe, "This will blast those foul Frenchie fish thieves out of the water." he quipped.

 

grayling1A.jpg

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We'll save money the numpties bleated

We'll cut down on red tape they squeaked

or

"Britain needs another 100 officials to issue health certificates for fish after Brexit, the Government has admitted. But Environment Secretary George Eustice, a committed Brexiteer, said dozens more health officers were needed to send fish overseas.

Quizzed about arrangements for exporting fish when the Brexit transition ends on December 31, he told MPs: "We've been working with the fishing industry and local authorities to ensure they have the capacity in place to employ the environmental health officers necessary to issue both the catch certificates and the environmental health certificates.

“We have around 1,000 officers now that can issue export health certificates for fish.“

Almost daily now, this nonsense throws up more cost, more bureaucracy, more form filling and more delay

Perhaps some of the numpties might grasp (eventually) why sensible folk have spent the past 40 years working to make trade quicker and easier.... and cheaper

Still, why spend money and training on hiring more nurses when you can spent the money on form fillers.

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34 minutes ago, Bill said:

We'll save money the numpties bleated

We'll cut down on red tape they squeaked

or

"Britain needs another 100 officials to issue health certificates for fish after Brexit, the Government has admitted. But Environment Secretary George Eustice, a committed Brexiteer, said dozens more health officers were needed to send fish overseas.

Quizzed about arrangements for exporting fish when the Brexit transition ends on December 31, he told MPs: "We've been working with the fishing industry and local authorities to ensure they have the capacity in place to employ the environmental health officers necessary to issue both the catch certificates and the environmental health certificates.

“We have around 1,000 officers now that can issue export health certificates for fish.“

Almost daily now, this nonsense throws up more cost, more bureaucracy, more form filling and more delay

Perhaps some of the numpties might grasp (eventually) why sensible folk have spent the past 40 years working to make trade quicker and easier.... and cheaper

Still, why spend money and training on hiring more nurses when you can spent the money on form fillers.

Indeed! You have to be extraordinarily stupid not to realise that once we had left the single market the bureacracy involved in trading between two "competing" market regimes would increase enormously. Brexit supporting politicians knew this but lied about it, and the Brexit supporting voters were just too ignorant and gullible to recognise the lies they had been fed. 

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4 hours ago, SwindonCanary said:

photo shopped, very low of you.

Never! How could you think such a thing.

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11 minutes ago, Herman said:

Don't tell him that the swan didn't actually call Grayling a tw@.

Shush! he won't think of that

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On 27/11/2020 at 16:57, PurpleCanary said:

Fish is not the problem.

Fish is still not the real problem. I know it lends itself more to banner headlines and superficial explanations and particularly to very bad puns than does 'level-playing field threat to integrity of the single market' but there is it...🤓

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9 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Fish is still not the real problem. I know it lends itself more to banner headlines and superficial explanations and particularly to very bad puns than does 'level-playing field threat to integrity of the single market' but there is it...🤓

"They're stealing our fish" is more attractive to their base. It carries on playing to their emotions rather than make them think.

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15 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

Fish is still not the real problem. I know it lends itself more to banner headlines and superficial explanations and particularly to very bad puns than does 'level-playing field threat to integrity of the single market' but there is it...🤓

 

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

 

It is almost as if I might actually know what I'm talking about...🤓

For what it is worth my bad deal/no deal swingometer has twitched towards No deal.

Edited by PurpleCanary
  • Haha 1

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45 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

It is almost as if I might actually know what I'm talking about...🤓

For what it is worth my bad deal/no deal swingometer has twitched towards No deal.

Pandemic has made no deal the most likely outcome imho.

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16 hours ago, horsefly said:

And you've linked this because ...? Perhaps it's a reminder to yourself, the rest of us all  know when the new year begins. 

It's when we finalize our time out of the EU Trade and all others 

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1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

It is almost as if I might actually know what I'm talking about...🤓

For what it is worth my bad deal/no deal swingometer has twitched towards No deal.

I had started to think the same but there are still thoughts to the contrary that there is an absolute necessity

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-news-live-boris-johnson-eu-update-b1763411.html

 

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31 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

It's when we finalize our time out of the EU Trade and all others 

Now put that in a coherent English sentence.

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Pandemic has made no deal the most likely outcome imho.

I have seen that argued both ways. That some kind of deal in necessary so the economic damage from the pandemic is not made worse, and alternatively that the hardline Brexiters who want a no-deal will use the pandemic as a way of hiding the Brexit portion of the damage.

As said before there is only one way of getting a deal (both sides agree) and two of getting a no-deal (no agreement or both sides agree but in a game of chicken neither side blinks).

My swingometer has twitched towards no-deal because it increasingly looks likely that the mechanism the EU will insist upon to keep the UK honest over a level playing field will be so onerous (because the EU does not trust Johnson or any Brexiter to keep their word) that it will be too much of a loss of sovereignty not just for the hardliners, but for Johnson. It would give him a clear sticking-point.

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2 minutes ago, SwindonCanary said:

you will never understand us leaving for good. 

No! I simply don't understand your "sentence": 

"It's when we finalize our time out of the EU Trade and all others"

It is incoherent. 

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1 minute ago, horsefly said:

No! I simply don't understand your "sentence": 

"It's when we finalize our time out of the EU Trade and all others"

It is incoherent. 

Well you tell me what happens with the EU at the year end !

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