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The Brexit Thread

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8 minutes ago, Aggy said:

 

References to the GE giving Boris a “mandate” for Brexit is misguided. People vote for all sorts of things at a general election. If he wants to prove he has the “mandate” on a specific issue, then go for a single-issue referendum.

Still, 438-20 was just Remain surrender. Those boys hung out the white flag tonight. 

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5 hours ago, FenwayFrank said:

But why do you think 16 and 17 year old kids should get the vote ?

perhaps because Johnson was elected by those of that age and 15 year olds, as well

 

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On 26/10/2019 at 09:06, Capt. Pants said:

Or Corbyn's lot bottles a GE and vote the WA through anyway!

that's the thing about having numerous logins - you can quickly dump the ones that fail

 

where's Len 😟

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On 24/10/2019 at 21:57, ricardo said:

Yes, Parliament will decide, only it  won't be this one.

And there will be a last minute deal.

and as expected with your predictions.... it was wrong

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On 20/10/2019 at 17:17, ricardo said:

I wouldn't be betting on 2019 personally.

and here he is again

the Michael Fish of brexit 😅

 

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7 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Still, 438-20 was just Remain surrender. Those boys hung out the white flag tonight. 

The LibDems and SNP went for an election on Sunday you dishonest ****. 

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7 hours ago, Aggy said:

I think, unless Labour comes out expressly as pro-remain, the Tories will run away with it. If you want Brexit, I think you vote Conservative. If you want Remain, you’re stuck with a tough decision. And if the “remain” vote is split between two or more parties, then the Conservatives are likely to benefit. 

References to the GE giving Boris a “mandate” for Brexit is misguided. People vote for all sorts of things at a general election. If he wants to prove he has the “mandate” on a specific issue, then go for a single-issue referendum.

I think the remain parties are going to do what they did in Wales and step aside for the easier vote winner. That would be the sensible way. Hopefully some unwritten pact or grassroot tactical manoeuvre with labour will be sorted out. 

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

I think the remain parties are going to do what they did in Wales and step aside for the easier vote winner. That would be the sensible way. Hopefully some unwritten pact or grassroot tactical manoeuvre with labour will be sorted out. 

If that does happen, with the smaller parties, which it certainly did in Brecon, I would imagine the LD’s to be the main beneficiary. 
Can you see the LD’s forming any sort of pact with JC’s Labour, or visa versa, particularly as the Labour position on Brexit is so ambiguous in terms of whether they are remain or leave?

Maybe the LDs will see it as the lessor of two evils but it’s far from certain how things will develop.

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1 hour ago, Herman said:

I think the remain parties are going to do what they did in Wales and step aside for the easier vote winner. That would be the sensible way. Hopefully some unwritten pact or grassroot tactical manoeuvre with labour will be sorted out. 

Never going to happen

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5 hours ago, Bill said:

and here he is again

the Michael Fish of brexit 😅

 

Bill

 “if there is to be a GE Nov 28th would be my thought”

Poor Bill

 

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6 hours ago, Bill said:

and as expected with your predictions.... it was wrong

Actually both predictions were spot on🤣

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34 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Actually both predictions were spot on🤣

The renegotiated Withdrawal Agreement was agreed between the EU and the UK government on October 17, 2019, which was a full 14 days before the October 31deadline. Under no circumstances can that be called 'last-minute'.

You keep making the mistake of thinking these are some intra-EU negotiations in which all the people who can make the decisions and sign off on them are sitting round a table, and so talks and decisions can - and often do - go right to the wire.

This is not that. These are negotiations betweeen the EU27 and what is in effect already a third country, so chronology - the fact that any agreement had to be approved by the EU Parliamant but more crucially by the UK Parliament - always meant any deal had to be completed several days before any deadline. Which is what happened here.

Edited by PurpleCanary

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9 hours ago, Aggy said:

I think, unless Labour comes out expressly as pro-remain, the Tories will run away with it. If you want Brexit, I think you vote Conservative. If you want Remain, you’re stuck with a tough decision. And if the “remain” vote is split between two or more parties, then the Conservatives are likely to benefit. 

References to the GE giving Boris a “mandate” for Brexit is misguided. People vote for all sorts of things at a general election. If he wants to prove he has the “mandate” on a specific issue, then go for a single-issue referendum.

I think this is right Aggy.

Listened to the Lib Dem guy on Radio 5 this morning and he was actively saying this is the last chance to stop Brexit as a Tory win would see it happen. He forced through the point that the only obviously pro-Remain party was the Lib Dems as Labour's position is unclear. I think we're going to hear much more of this sort of thing from them and Labour need to move fast and come out with an unequivocal position. Labour's alternative is to try and push the agenda onto non-Brexit parts of their manifesto.

Can't agree with the mandate part of your post though. As Bill has been banging on forever, we are in a Parliamentary Democracy and referendums are advisory. There has been a referendum that voted for Brexit. If that is backed up with a GE that produces a pro-Brexit Parliament as well then it's not going to be easy to suggest that Johnson doesn't have a mandate.  

 

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15 minutes ago, PurpleCanary said:

The renegotiated Withdrawal Agreement was agreed between the EU and the UK government on October 17, 2019, which was a full 14 days before the October 31deadline. Under no circumstances can that be called 'last-minute'.

You keep making the mistake of thinking these are some intra-EU negotiations in which all the people who can make the decisions and sign off on them are sitting round a table, and so talks and decisions can - and often do - go right to the wire.

This is not that. These are negotiations betweeen the EU27 and what is in effect already a third country, so chronology - the fact that any agreement had to be approved by the EU Parliamant but more crucially by the UK Parliament - always meant any deal had to be completed several days before any deadline. Which is what happened here.

In the context of over two years of talks, a fortnight is near enough last minute.

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I love the chicken counting going on here.

Very insightful comment by Prof. Curtis yesterday.

Upshot was if as expected SNP & LD take 100+ seats its VERY difficult to see how either the Tories on Labour could then form a majority government. Further as the the Tories are now Johnny no mates a minority or coalition Labour / SNP / LD government may be likely. All Labour have to do for this to play out is to deny Boris a majority (not win). Even the DUP may go with it.

That may very well be the subtle calculation that the SNP and LD made! Such a result would see the Tories gone and a 2nd ref nailed on. 

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37 minutes ago, ricardo said:

In the context of over two years of talks, a fortnight is near enough last minute.

This is just the agreement May turned down last March and that the EU had always proposed. Its just that it took Johnson's panic  and the Ben Act to force Johnson to accept as he couldn't solve the intractable NI border issue without starting to crack apart the UK.  

The true story is that despite the endless ill-informed Brexiter rants that the EU would give in, they didn't - they never would of. We did. The same story will play out with any future trade deals we might wish to enter into with much larger players. Little old England for sure. 

Edited by Yellow Fever

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12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I love the chicken counting going on here.

Very insightful comment by Prof. Curtis yesterday.

Upshot was if as expected SNP & LD take 100+ seats its VERY difficult to see how either the Tories on Labour could then form a majority government. Further as the the Tories are now Johnny no mates a minority or coalition Labour / SNP / LD government may be likely. All Labour have to do for this to play out is to deny Boris a majority (not win). Even the DUP may go with it.

That may very well be the subtle calculation that the SNP and LD made! Such a result would see the Tories gone and a 2nd ref nailed on. 

I really like Curtis. He always seems very balanced to me. 

Big IF in his statement though and still (much more well informed) chicken counting

 

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1 minute ago, Hairy Canary said:

I really like Curtis. He always seems very balanced to me. 

Big IF in his statement though and still (much more well informed) chicken counting

 

Totally agree - BUT Boris it appears has a higher bar to jump than then the rest. He has to win a straight majority (Tories got 43% in 2017 - 35% now....) whereas the rest just need to deny him this or same again. Frankly he's now bet Brexit 'all in' in another 'Do or Die' moment and his track record isn't very good on 'Do or Die'. Hence the concerns apparent in the Tory party. Brexit is now fully in play.

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1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

Totally agree - BUT Boris it appears has a higher bar to jump than then the rest. He has to win a straight majority (Tories got 43% in 2017 - 35% now....) whereas the rest just need to deny him this or same again. Frankly he's now bet Brexit 'all in' in another 'Do or Die' moment and his track record isn't very good on 'Do or Die'. Hence the concerns apparent in the Tory party. Brexit is now fully in play.

Yes, hard to argue with that, whichever side of the debate you're coming from. A Tory majority means Brexit. Anything else could very well mean no Brexit, maybe following a confirmatory referendum.

Many things muddy the waters when chicken counting. Lib Dems are going to be much stronger than last time for a start.

Boris is totally different to Theresa May. He could prove to be popular or he could **** it right up.

Corbyn definitely had a bounce during the last election campaign, partly because May was so hopeless. I don't think his second bounce will be so high personally. 

The only thing that is certain is that it's going to be a highly charged campaign!

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Tories booted out of Scotland, Scottish Government get their Section 30 Order approved, IndyRef 2 takes place and landslide victory for leaving the Union, Scotland welcomed back into the EU and a hard border introduced with a Freeeeeeeeeeeeeedoooooooooom Wall. 🤔🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

What's not to like? 🤷‍♂️🤣


Apples

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I love the chicken counting going on here.

Very insightful comment by Prof. Curtis yesterday.

Upshot was if as expected SNP & LD take 100+ seats its VERY difficult to see how either the Tories on Labour could then form a majority government. Further as the the Tories are now Johnny no mates a minority or coalition Labour / SNP / LD government may be likely. All Labour have to do for this to play out is to deny Boris a majority (not win). Even the DUP may go with it.

That may very well be the subtle calculation that the SNP and LD made! Such a result would see the Tories gone and a 2nd ref nailed on. 

Expect the Labour vote to be split every which way, as will the so-called Remain vote. LibDema looking for around 25-30 seats. A good result for them. Labour will be hard-pressed to get the vote out, cold day voting for a party with no identity, not going to happen

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Totally agree - BUT Boris it appears has a higher bar to jump than then the rest. He has to win a straight majority (Tories got 43% in 2017 - 35% now....) whereas the rest just need to deny him this or same again. Frankly he's now bet Brexit 'all in' in another 'Do or Die' moment and his track record isn't very good on 'Do or Die'. Hence the concerns apparent in the Tory party. Brexit is now fully in play.

43% of the vote would give Boris a sizeable majority of seats as the other % is spread among other parties. I don't think he will make 40% but it will still give him an outright majority

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48 minutes ago, Mr Apples said:

Tories booted out of Scotland, Scottish Government get their Section 30 Order approved, IndyRef 2 takes place and landslide victory for leaving the Union, Scotland welcomed back into the EU and a hard border introduced with a Freeeeeeeeeeeeeedoooooooooom Wall. 🤔🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿

What's not to like? 🤷‍♂️🤣


Apples

The fact I'm stuck in England with people like RTB. 😀

  • Haha 1

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

I love the chicken counting going on here.

Very insightful comment by Prof. Curtis yesterday.

Upshot was if as expected SNP & LD take 100+ seats its VERY difficult to see how either the Tories on Labour could then form a majority government. Further as the the Tories are now Johnny no mates a minority or coalition Labour / SNP / LD government may be likely. All Labour have to do for this to play out is to deny Boris a majority (not win). Even the DUP may go with it.

That may very well be the subtle calculation that the SNP and LD made! Such a result would see the Tories gone and a 2nd ref nailed on. 

Suppose Curtice's notion is right, and we end up in effect with the situation we have now, with the Tories being the largest single party (that looks likely) but in a minority because no other party will align with it or, if the DUP will, it still is well short of the magic number (326?).

That is fine for voting against Johnson's WA, but to break the impasse MPs have to agree on an alternative and vote for it. And as it stands the potential allies - say, Labour, the LibDems and/or the Nats - have different Brexit policies.

They would have to agree on whether Brexit was still going to happen, but with, for example, the UK staying in a customs' union (subject to EU approval), or whether any deal should be put against Remain in another referendum (again, if the EU was prepared to grant yet another extension).

And even if that can be worked out, there is still the question, leaving Brexit aside,  of a government meant to last for five years. Simply being anti-Tory won't be enough. This coalition of politicans who probably really don't much like each other, or their policies, could fall apart, necessitating another election.

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